An Industry in Decline: Market Value Slashed by Nearly Half

Cultural and Health Shifts Undermine Demand Foundations

New Products, Restructurings, and Leadership Overhauls

Investor Sentiment and Valuation Reset

A 7,000-Year-Old Industry at a Strategic Crossroads

Source: Bloomberg

China's and Canada's leaders met on Friday for the first formal sitdown in eight years as the two nations look to reset ties strained over trade and security issues.

President Xi Jinping met with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Community meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea. Carney said he welcomed an invitation for him to visit China extended by Xi.

Xi said at the start of their meeting, "In recent times, after mutual efforts, China-Canada ties have shown a recovery and improvement trend. This aligns with both countries' mutual interest."

"Our countries have a long history of engagement," Carney said, noting the recent 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Communist-ruled China. "In recent years we have not been as engaged," he said, in oblique reference to the tensions between the two Pacific nations.

"Distance is not the way to solve problems, not the way to serve our people with people-centered growth," the prime minister said. "Pragmatic and constructive engagement is."

Xi, for his part, said that "China is willing to work with Canada to push China-Canada ties to return to the correct track of being healthy, stable and sustainable as soon as possible."

Canada's relationship with China plummeted when China detained two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, in apparent retaliation for Canada's arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a US extradition warrant.

The two men were released in 2021, but ties didn't dramatically improve — with allegations swirling in Canada that China had interfered in previous elections and Beijing continuing to block imports of Canadian beef and pet food, among other goods.

Former leader Justin Trudeau spoke briefly to Xi in late 2023, with that exchange the first time they had spoken since Xi chastised Trudeau in public for allegedly leaking details of a prior meeting.

China hiked tariffs on Canadian canola in August in the latest round of their ongoing trade war, but since then the pace of bilateral contact has picked up, with Carney meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang last month in New York and Foreign Minister Anita Anand traveling to Beijing earlier this month to meet her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.

Earlier this week, Carney downplayed expectations for immediate tariff relief, saying the meeting would be "the start of a broader discussion."

He said there were some areas where the two sides could make quick progress, such as easing travel restrictions on each other's citizens. But the goal will also be to set conditions for longer-term progress on trickier matters, he added.

"We're starting from a very low base and we can move quite substantially before we start to get to sensitive areas," Carney told reporters on Monday.

Canada currently has steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, which were imposed in 2024 in an effort to match US policies.

Carney is seeking to balance his security interests, which overlap with Washington, against his country's economic wellbeing, which is being tested by Trump's aggressive trade war. His Asia tour is part of his recently announced goal to double Canada's exports to markets outside the US within a decade to net an extra C$300 billion ($215 billion) in trade.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The European Central Bank must be careful in interpreting the inflation projections it will receive in December and avoid erratic policy decisions, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

While a first glimpse of estimated price trends in 2028 will help officials assess whether the ECB is still on track to its 2% target, elevated uncertainty means the likelihood of revisions is unusually high, the governor of Latvia's central bank said in an interview. He added that steadiness is a virtue policymakers should uphold.

"The 2028 forecast will be very important to look at, to see where inflation dynamics are going, but I would not overestimate the importance," Kazaks said. "Uncertainty remains high and is unlikely to disappear, so forecasts will come with a very large margin of error."

The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% on Thursday and President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy continues to be in a "good place." While she refused to be drawn on whether December may see another cut — adding to eight so far this cycle — her assessment of the economy signaled that the bar may be high.

"If we see that we need to move, then we move — but we don't need to be jumpy," said Kazaks. "The steadiness of our policy decisions is an advantage."

In September, the ECB predicted inflation rates of 1.7% next year and 1.9% in 2027. An update is due in December, when economists will add 2028 to the outlook, with the magnitude and direction of revisions still very much unclear.

Kazaks's comments are in line with those of Austria's Martin Kocher, who also played down the significance of the 2028 forecasts.

"The 2028 projection is of course a projection that is far out into the future," he told Bloomberg Television. "So putting too much weight on this projection, on this single data point, I think would not be appropriate."

In this situation, it was reasonable to wait for new data and especially for our comprehensive business cycle forecast in December, which includes an estimate of inflation in 2028 for the first time.

Heightened uncertainty is one reason why Kazaks concurs with Lagarde on rates being in a "good place."

"We are practically at around 2%, inflation expectations are well anchored, and we have the credibility to keep them there," he said. "The market understands our steady-hand approach, and that gives us time to really monitor the situation."

Traders aren't betting on any more rate cuts this year and see a less than 50% chance of one materializing by September 2026. Economists predict borrowing costs will remain on hold all the way through 2027.

Kazaks argued that since the last Governing Council meeting in September, the economy has "more or less developed within the confines of the baseline," while threats to the outlook have become more manageable.

"Inflation risks are more balanced," he said. "Risks to growth as well because some — including those related to trade — have diminished for now. But I would still say they're tilted somewhat to the downside. Growth is quite weak and vulnerable rather than solid, and uncertainty is very high."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Key points:

The U.S. Federal Reserve has moved back into line with other major rate setters after it cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday but pushed back against market bets that it would keep going as the Washington shutdown fogs up its forecasting lens.

The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank left rates unchanged on Thursday.

Thomson ReutersHow interest rates have changed among G10 central banks

Here's where 10 major central banks stand after the latest round of meetings:

1/ SWITZERLAND

The Swiss National Bank cut its key rate to 0% in June and is widely expected to hold steady with markets pricing a long pause.

In its first set of minutes detailing its rate setting discussions, published last week, the SNB quashed market speculation that it would return to negative rates to stop the strong francpushing the sluggish economy into deflation.

Thomson ReutersSwitzerland's inflation and interest rates

2/ CANADA

The Bank of Canada, battling an economic slowdown exacerbated by U.S. tariffs and the inflationary impact of the trade war, cut rates to a more than three-year low of 2.25% on Wednesday.

It also sent strong signals that easing ends here and traders see more than 60% odds on the BoC standing pat until December 2026.

Thomson ReutersCanada's inflation and interest rates

3/ SWEDEN

Money markets price in less than a one in five chance of further easing before 2026 as domestic inflation stays sticky, which has sent traders piling in to Sweden's crown. The currency has risen 15% against the dollar year-to-date. (0#SEKIRPR)

Thomson ReutersSweden's inflation and interest rates

4/ NEW ZEALAND

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by a punchy 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% this month in an attempt to prop up a frail economy.

Markets see a good chance of a further cut in late November, though inflation sitting at the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band could be a complication.

Thomson ReutersNew Zealand's inflation and interest rates

5/ EURO ZONE

The ECB on Thursday matched traders' expectations and held the bloc's main deposit rate at 2% for a third straight meeting.

Traders viewed this ECB easing cycle as almost over, pricing in less than a 50% chance of further easing by July 2026.

Thomson ReutersEuro zone inflation and ECB interest rates

6/ UNITED STATES

The Fed on Wednesday executed a widely flagged 25 bps cut but pushed back against market bets for more by warning that data gaps caused by the U.S. government shutdown were clouding its forecasting lens.

"If you're driving in the fog you slow down," Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-announcement press conference.

The rate cut drew dissent from two policymakers, with Stephen Miran again calling for a deeper reduction and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favoring no cut given above-target inflation.

Traders price a 70% probability of a 25 bps December cut, down from 84% ahead of Wednesday's decision.

Thomson ReutersUS inflation and interest rates

7/ BRITAIN

The Bank of England is another major rate setter that is signalling cautious moves from here as it kept rates unchanged at its last meeting and said inflation risks remained high.

Traders expect another hold on November 6 but markets price a 60% chance of a December cut after above-target UK inflation at least held steady in September.

Thomson ReutersBritain's inflation and interest rates

8/ AUSTRALIA

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut rates by 75 bps since February but hotter-than-expected inflation encouraged it to hold rates steady and turn more hawkish in September.

That trend has continued, pushing expectations for the next cut forward to at least February 2026. (0#AUDIRPR).

Thomson ReutersAustralia's inflation and interest rates

9/ NORWAY

Norway's central bank eased borrowing costs by 25 bps to 4.0% in September but signalled further cuts were less likely because underlying inflation was rising. That has helped the crown keep powering higher against the dollar, with a 12% gain for the year so far (0#NOKIRPR).

Thomson ReutersNorway's inflation and interest rates

10/ JAPAN

The Bank of Japan, the sole central bank in hiking mode, kept rates steady on Thursday but repeated its pledge to keep increasing borrowing costs if the economy moves as it projects, shifting investor focus to December's meeting.

The yenweakened after the announcement.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week called for speedier BOJ rate hikes to avoid weakening the currency too much.

Thomson ReutersJapan's inflation and interest rates

Source: TradingView

Xi Urges Unity Amid Geopolitical Shifts and Economic Volatility

Supply Chain Integration vs. Strategic Decoupling

Strategic Vision Anchored in Global Openness and High-Tech Investment

Economic Context: Manufacturing Stresses and Regional Realignment

Source: CNBC