Ethereum Poised for Growth Amid Bitcoin's Volatility

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This technical development is often interpreted as a potential trend reversal, with a solid close above these levels indicating possible upward momentum.

BUY ETH-BTC

Close Time

CLOSED

0.03953

Entry Price

0.04750

0.03627

0.03457 -0.00019 -0.55%

17.9

Pips

Loss

0.03627

0.03774

Exit Price

0.03953

Entry Price

0.04750

Amid the excitement surrounding Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 milestone for the first time, its price took an unexpected dip to $89,700 just a few hours ago. This sharp correction coincided with a significant wave of liquidations in the futures markets, underscoring the inherent volatility of the asset.

According to data from CoinGlass, more than $100 million in long and short positions were liquidated within the last hour, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Previously, Bitcoin had managed to maintain levels above the historic threshold amid notable market fluctuations. Additionally, over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across both long and short positions exceeded $649 million, reflecting the highly dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Despite this setback, market sentiment remains optimistic, partly due to the promises made by Donald Trump for his upcoming presidential term, set to begin on January 20. Trump has pledged to enact policies aimed at fostering Bitcoin's growth and positioning the United States as a leader in the cryptocurrency space. His recent cabinet appointments appear aligned with this vision, fueling expectations of a more crypto-friendly administration.

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to lead the way in blockchain innovation. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, recently outlined his transformative vision for digital wallets in an essay titled "The Three Transitions." He proposed three key strategies for the future: simplifying user experience, enhancing security, and integrating social recovery mechanisms.

These proposals are critical not only for Ethereum’s growth but also for reshaping the broader blockchain ecosystem. By addressing the technical complexities and vulnerabilities that have hindered mass adoption, Ethereum seeks to set a new standard for accessibility and security. However, the path to this transformation is not without challenges. Risks such as malicious actors and the need for further technological development remain hurdles the ecosystem must overcome.

From a market perspective, Ethereum has demonstrated remarkable resilience amidst criticism. Recently, the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,500 ETH, valued at over $6 million, sparking speculation about further sales. Buterin clarified that he has not personally sold any Ethereum since September 12. As of now, Ethereum is trading around $3,850, marking a 6% gain over the past week. This upward trend highlights Ethereum’s strong fundamentals and suggests it could surpass the $4,000 mark soon, even amid market volatility. Ethereum Poised for Growth Amid Bitcoin's Volatility_1

Ethereum Poised for Growth Amid Bitcoin's Volatility_1

Technical Analysis

The ETHBTC pair is currently closing above the 200-period moving average on the 12-hour chart, as well as the 100-period moving average. This technical development is often interpreted as a potential trend reversal, with a solid close above these levels indicating possible upward momentum.

Since hitting a low of 0.03200 on November 20, ETHBTC has shown significant recovery, reaching a high of 0.04130 in the current session. This movement has been fueled in part by Bitcoin’s correction after breaching $100,000, a milestone that triggered profit-taking among traders. As capital rotates into altcoins, Ethereum, as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is poised to benefit significantly.

This inflow of capital could signal the start of an Altseason, further bolstering Ethereum’s position. If current conditions persist, ETHBTC may continue to attract traders looking to capitalize on renewed interest in altcoins. With its resilience and commitment to innovation, Ethereum is well-positioned to lead this next phase of the market’s evolution.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.03951

Target price: 0.04750

Stop loss: 0.03627

Validity: Dec 15, 2024 15:00:00

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Stocks

Summary:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 45,000 for the first time, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also hitting record highs. Momentum indicators continue to show strength.

BUY US30

Close Time

CLOSED

44649.44

Entry Price

46000.00

44180.00

42944.90 +428.45 +1.01%

4694.4

Pips

Loss

44180.00

44179.44

Exit Price

44649.44

Entry Price

46000.00

Fundamentals

US equities advanced throughout Wednesday following a subdued session earlier, with major indices posting mixed gains for the second consecutive day and closing at new highs.

The Nasdaq, driven by technology stocks, led the rally, climbing 254.21 points (+1.3%) to 19,735. The Dow Jones gained 308 points (+0.7%) to close at 45,014, while the S&P 500 rose 36.61 points (+0.6%) to 6,086.

The DJIA's record close above 45,000 was supported by a surge in Salesforce (CRM) shares, which jumped 11.0% after better-than-expected Q3 revenue results. Similarly, chipmaker Marvell Technology (MRVL) posted a 23.2% gain following strong earnings, bolstering the tech sector.

Weak US economic data also fueled optimism about rate cuts, aiding Wall Street's rally. ADP's private-sector jobs report for November showed slightly lower-than-expected growth, while ISM reported a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in US services activity. The services PMI dropped from 56.0 in October to 52.1 in November. Although a reading above 50 still signals economic expansion, economists had expected a smaller drop, to 55.5.

As a result, CME's FedWatch tool indicated a 75.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's meeting later this month.

The Fed's decision on December 18 will be closely watched. If most voting members prioritize the employment task, the market may expect a rate cut, which would support risk appetite.

Market Outlook: Despite exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts from late 2023, the rally in US stocks still has room to grow before the new year, albeit with potential bumps along the way.

In the short term, equities may enter a "hesitation zone" due to uncertainties surrounding Friday's employment report, next week's inflation data, and the Fed's December rate decision. However, a buy-the-dip approach remains advisable during this period.

Expect Market Bumps but Maintain a Buy-the-Dip Strategy_1

Technical Analysis

The DJIA closed strongly on Wednesday, with consolidation alternating along the upper boundary of an ascending channel. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the upward trend remains dominant.

A potential retreat might prompt investors to look at the 20-day SMA around 44,362 rather than the previous low of 44,557. A break below the diagonal support line could suggest a bearish scenario, with targets at 43,409 and a more neutral 42,560 range.

Technical oscillators support continued strength. The RSI maintains its upward trajectory, and the MACD line and its signal line are diverging positively.

Overall, as long as the index stays above the long-term upward trendline and, crucially, above the 200-day SMA, the broader outlook remains strong and optimistic.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 44650

Target Price: 46000

Stop Loss: 44180

Valid Until: Dec 20, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 44607, 44362, 44179

Resistance: 45108, 45801, 46096

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

OPEC+ members are holding an online meeting to discuss delaying production normalization amid weak demand and an oversupply from non-OPEC+ countries. The market expects at least a three-month delay, meaning OPEC+ must exceed expectations to uphold the baseline for oil price commitments.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

67.199

Entry Price

70.500

66.000

69.447 +0.305 +0.44%

101.0

Pips

Profit

66.000

68.209

Exit Price

67.199

Entry Price

70.500

Fundamentals

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices faced selling pressure for the second consecutive day, reversing most of the week's gains.

Mixed inventory data failed to provide clear direction for the market. The API report showed a larger-than-expected inventory build, while the EIA report indicated a significant draw of -5.1 million barrels.

Currently, market attention is focused on the ongoing OPEC+ online meeting, with reports suggesting that the group is considering delaying its planned production increases by three months, although the scale of production cuts may remain largely unchanged. A decision to delay the production hike could signal more room for crude oil prices to rise due to lower supply forecasts.

Meanwhile, ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls data release, risk sentiment tied to leading US employment indicators may continue to support gains in high-yield assets like commodities. Strong employment growth could dampen expectations of Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting the dollar and putting pressure on risk assets like crude oil.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2% on Wednesday after testing the upper resistance level, continuing to consolidate within a descending triangle pattern. The upper resistance level seems to have held again, potentially pushing oil prices back toward the $67.12 lower boundary of the triangle.

Additionally, the 100 SMA remains below the 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is downward, with the triangle top more likely to hold than to break. Persistent bearish pressure could even lead to a breakdown of the support level, resulting in a drop equal to the height of the triangle.

Momentum indicators suggest continued downward movement, with oscillators yet to reach oversold levels, reflecting weakness. The RSI is also trending lower, indicating that WTI crude oil prices may continue to decline as bears maintain control.In terms of trading, it is recommended to focus on buying low and selling high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 67.20

Target Price: 70.50

Stop Loss: 66.00

Valid Until: Dec 20, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 68.08, 67.56, 67.10

Resistance: 69.53, 69.67, 70.25

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

Market sentiment is showing caution as macro factors from Australia and Japan could lead to significant volatility. The Japanese Yen is supported by expectations of a change in monetary policy from the BoJ...

SELL AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

96.950

Entry Price

96.600

97.100

97.776 -0.392 -0.40%

35.0

Pips

Profit

96.600

Exit Price

96.950

Entry Price

97.100

AUD/JPY has recovered slightly in today's session but remains under pressure from the global economic outlook and geopolitical developments. Recent data from China showed that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in November, below 50.0, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This has weighed on the AUD due to its heavy reliance on exports to China.

In Japan, the yen continued to be supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan would ease its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 0.96%, the highest level of the year, providing a bullish impetus to the yen.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is uncertain. Investors are weighing the strength of the Australian dollar against a backdrop of falling prices for commodities such as iron ore due to weak demand from China. Meanwhile, a slight recovery in Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 33,200, reflects confidence in the domestic economy.

The VIX index, a global fear gauge, remained steady at 19.3, indicating that the market is not experiencing significant panic but remains cautious about macro uncertainties.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart, AUD/JPY is hovering near the resistance zone of 97.022, with technical indicators pointing to a possible correction. The Bollinger Bands have started to narrow, indicating a decrease in short-term volatility. The price is currently just above the 20-period moving average, suggesting that bullish pressure remains but is fading.

The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) shows signs of bearish divergence, with the %K line crossing below the %D line from the overbought zone (80), signaling a possible correction in the near future. The nearest support is identified at 96,600, while strong resistance is at 97,200.

Trading strategy

AUD/JPY pair is likely to correct after touching the resistance zone of 97.022, due to technical signals and pressure from unfavorable economic data from China

Entry: 96.950

Take Profit: 96.600

Stop Loss: 97.100

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The latest data from the US, including the ISM services PMI and the performance of government bond yields, have dampened the USD's momentum. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to be supported by potential changes in the BoJ's monetary policy, clearly reflected in the market's risk sentiment....

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

150.450

Entry Price

150.200

150.650

156.302 -1.112 -0.71%

25.0

Pips

Profit

150.200

Exit Price

150.450

Entry Price

150.650

USD/JPY is being heavily influenced by both economies. The latest data from the US showed that the ISM services PMI fell to 52.0 in November, below expectations of 53.2 and the previous month's 52.9. This reflects a decline in the services sector - a major contributor to US GDP. In addition, the yield on the 10-year US government bond fell to 4.12%, indicating that the pressure on the USD is increasing.

In Japan, recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda that the BoJ is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy have strengthened the yen. Investors are now shifting capital flows into safe-haven assets, boosting the value of the yen amid uncertain global economic conditions.

Market psychology

Market sentiment is turning cautious as investors worry about the US economic outlook amid a possible change in monetary policy. The VIX, a gauge of investor fear in the US market, rose slightly to 19.5 today, reflecting heightened volatility. Meanwhile, ETF flows showed money flowing out of US stocks last week, focusing on safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen.

In addition, information from the Japanese market also showed positive sentiment towards the Yen when the Nikkei 225 index remained stable at 33,100, up slightly 0.2% from the previous session.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart, USD/JPY is trading below the 20-period moving average (20 SMA), confirming the bearish pressure in the short term. Bollinger Bands show that the price range is narrowing, indicating that the market may soon have a breakout to the downside.

The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator has fallen into the overbought zone at 68, and the %K line is crossing below the %D line, signaling a possible further downside correction. The current strong support level is at 150,200, if broken, the price may continue to decline to the 149,800 area. On the contrary, the nearest resistance level is identified at 150,600, where the recent peak and the 50 SMA converge.

Trading Recommendations

Overall, USD/JPY is facing downward pressure due to weak economic data from the US and the prospect of a change in BoJ monetary policy. Current technical signals also suggest a continuation of the downtrend in the short term.

Entry: 150.450

Take Profit: 150.100

Stop Loss: 150.650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The NZD/USD pair has corrected to near 0.5880 after a three-day decline, as weaker-than-expected US Services PMI data pressured the US Dollar.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58620

Entry Price

0.57200

0.59700

0.56488 +0.00194 +0.34%

59.4

Pips

Profit

0.57200

0.58026

Exit Price

0.58620

Entry Price

0.59700

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed a slight recovery, bouncing back toward the 0.5880 mark against the US Dollar (USD) after a three-day losing streak. This reversal comes as the US Dollar weakened following disappointing US economic data that dampened investor sentiment. The catalyst for the Kiwi’s rebound was weaker-than-expected services sector activity in the US, which pushed the Greenback lower.

On Wednesday, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that growth in the services sector slowed significantly in November. The PMI dropped to 52.1, down from 56.0 in October, coming in well below the consensus estimate of 55.5. The data revealed that while the services sector continued to expand, the pace of growth was considerably slower, reflecting broader concerns about economic resilience in the US.

The immediate impact was seen in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies. At the time of writing, the DXY hovered just above a key support level of 106.00, reflecting a cautious mood in the broader forex market. The ongoing weakness in the USD is likely to persist until further US economic data is released, with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for November, due out on Friday, likely to be the next major market mover.

Economists anticipate that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2% from 4.1% in October. These figures are expected to hold significant weight in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. If the jobs report shows a stronger-than-expected labor market, it could bolster the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. However, the weaker-than-expected PMI report may give the central bank some leeway to adopt a more cautious approach to future rate hikes, particularly in light of recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

During the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday, Powell indicated that the Fed officials might be more inclined to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach regarding interest rate cuts. He suggested that, given the strength of the US economy, the central bank could afford to be patient before making any moves to reduce rates. This dovish tone has added to the market’s uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of US monetary policy.

While the US data has pressured the USD, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is facing its own set of challenges. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains under pressure to reduce interest rates, as inflationary concerns linger despite the central bank’s previous efforts to tighten monetary policy. Having already cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.25%, the RBNZ is widely expected to lower rates by 50 basis points (bps) in its first policy meeting of 2025, which would likely weigh on the NZD.

With expectations for further rate cuts, the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar remains largely bearish. The RBNZ’s ability to address inflation while fostering economic stability is a delicate balance, and the potential for additional rate reductions could continue to erode investor confidence in the Kiwi.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair remains within a cautious range, struggling to break through key support and resistance levels. The pair is currently oscillating near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which has acted as a crucial intraday resistance level. The immediate outlook for the pair remains bearish, with a potential target of 0.5800 if the selling pressure continues. A break below this level would likely open the door for further declines, with the next support seen at 0.5720.

The NZD/USD pair faces crucial resistance at 0.5935. Holding below this level is essential for the continuation of the bearish trend. A breach above 0.5935 could signal a shift in momentum, potentially leading to a bullish correction with the next key target at 0.6020.

For today, the expected trading range for NZD/USD is between 0.5810 on the downside and 0.5905 on the upside. The near-term trend remains bearish, and unless the pair can break above 0.5935, the outlook for the Kiwi remains frail.

TRADE RECOMMNDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.58620

STOP LOSS: 0.5970

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5720

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD rises to 1.4075 as expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut and falling oil prices weigh on the Canadian dollar. Fed Chair Powell's positive outlook supports the US dollar.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40585

Entry Price

1.42000

1.40000

1.43695 -0.00268 -0.19%

82.0

Pips

Profit

1.40000

1.41405

Exit Price

1.40585

Entry Price

1.42000

The USD/CAD currency pair edged higher during the early Asian session on Thursday, trading near 1.4075, as traders assessed a blend of mixed economic data and contrasting monetary policy signals from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. This uptick is largely fueled by growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, alongside a weakening of crude oil prices, which tend to pressure the Canadian dollar. Although the US dollar faced some temporary downward pressure from disappointing economic figures, the market’s broader focus remains on the resilience of the US economy, which continues to bolster the Greenback.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided an optimistic outlook for the US economy on Wednesday, asserting that despite ongoing inflationary pressures, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment levels at historically low rates. Powell’s comments suggested that the Federal Reserve could afford to take a more measured approach to interest rate cuts going forward, thus supporting the US dollar in the near term. Powell described the US economy as being "remarkably good shape," signaling that while inflation remains a concern, the central bank's cautious stance is not likely to shift abruptly. This dovish stance, focused on continued low unemployment and ongoing progress in inflation, strengthens the underlying demand for the Greenback.

However, the positive outlook for the US dollar was partially offset by the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which showed a surprising decline in the US Services PMI for November, falling to 52.1 from 56.0 in October. The reading was well below market expectations of 55.5, which momentarily pressured the USD, though the decline in the services sector was not severe enough to alter the broader market sentiment towards the Greenback. The weaker-than-expected data raised concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy, but the overall tone of Powell’s statements helped to mitigate the immediate market reaction.

In contrast, the Bank of Canada’s more dovish stance remains a key factor driving the USD/CAD rally. With market expectations high that the BoC will continue its aggressive rate-cutting cycle at its December meeting, the Canadian dollar is under pressure. Current market pricing suggests that the BoC could deliver a rate cut of up to 50 basis points, which would exceed the Fed's pace of tightening. As a result, the Canadian dollar is facing a growing divergence between the central banks’ monetary policies, further weighing on the CAD.

Additionally, the decline in crude oil prices has compounded the negative sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar. As a major oil exporter to the United States, Canada’s economy—and by extension, its currency—has a strong correlation with oil price movements. The recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by concerns over weakening global demand and rising inventories, has added additional downward pressure on the CAD. Lower oil prices tend to diminish Canada’s export revenues, which in turn affects the value of the Canadian dollar. Given that oil is a key driver of Canadian economic activity, the continued softness in oil prices is expected to contribute to the USD’s outperformance relative to the CAD in the near term.

Later today, traders will turn their attention to the release of two critical economic reports: the Canadian Ivey PMI for November and the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The Ivey PMI, which gauges Canadian business sentiment, will provide valuable insight into the health of the Canadian economy, potentially influencing the BoC’s future policy decisions. Meanwhile, the Initial Jobless Claims data from the US will shed light on the state of the labor market, which remains a key factor in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. While a surge in claims could dampen expectations of continued US economic strength, any significant surprise could shift market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Rises Amid Diverging Monetary Policies and Weaker US Data_1

Technically, the USD/CAD pair remains in a consolidation phase, with the price fluctuating within a tight range. However, the overall trend remains bullish, with the pair eyeing a break above the key resistance level at 1.4120. A breakout above this level would open the door for a move toward the recent high of 1.4200, further confirming the bullish outlook. On the downside, 1.4000 remains a crucial support level, and a break below this threshold could signal a shift in momentum.

The technical indicators suggest that the pair may need additional catalysts to push through its current range. Nonetheless, the underlying trend remains positive as long as the pair holds above the 1.4000 mark. Any short-term pullbacks should be seen as potential buying opportunities for those betting on the continuation of the bullish trend in USD/CAD.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.40585

STOP LOSS: 1.4000

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Ethereum Poised for Growth Amid Bitcoin's Volatility

Technical Analysis

Expect Market Bumps but Maintain a Buy-the-Dip Strategy

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The Balance of Risks May Have Shifted

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Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

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Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading strategy

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Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

NZD/USD Faces Bearish Bias as US Dollar Weakens on Services PMI; RBNZ Rate Cuts Loom

USD/CAD Rises Amid Diverging Monetary Policies and Weaker US Data

Risk Disclosure