Investor Reaction to South Korea's Political Crisis

TOKYO - Japan’s service activity swung back to growth in November as improving demand supported new business, a private sector survey showed on Dec 4.

The final au Jibun Bank Service purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in November from 49.7 in October, according to the survey compiled by the S&P Global Market Intelligence.

It was slightly higher than a flash reading of 50.2 and rose above the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction.

“The Japanese services economy experienced a renewed upswing in growth in the penultimate month of the year,” as an improvement in demand helped output and new business, said economist Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

New business expanded for the fifth straight month in November, reflecting improved confidence and business expansions, the survey found.

Firms were optimistic about their business outlook with the index of the future activity rising to the highest since July.

They see new business expansion plans and client wins increasing demand and customers, the survey showed.

Employment rose at the fastest pace in four months while outstanding business hit the strongest growth in eight months, the survey found.

Inflationary pressures remained strong in November due to higher costs of fuel, labour and logistics. Companies passed price burdens on to clients, with the level of prices charged rising at the fastest pace in six months.

Firms expect that “downside risks from inflation and global uncertainty would dissipate and provide a welcome boost to the currently subdued private sector,” Mr Bhatti said.

The composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and service activity, grew to 50.1 in November from 49.6 in October.

The PMIs come ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Dec 18-19, with market players closely monitoring economic data.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Nikkei newspaper on Nov 30 the timing of the next interest rate hike was “approaching” as economic indicators moved in line with central bank forecasts.

Source: Straitstimes

Not that big a surprise after recent trade numbers

3Q24 GDP for Australia missed on the downside, coming in at 0.3% QoQ, well below the 0.5% figure that had been forecast. However, that consensus figure looked in doubt after yesterday's net export contribution figures were published. These showed a smaller contribution to GDP from net exports (+0.1pp). While this is sometimes offset elsewhere (usually inventories) in this case, it turned out to be fully reflected in the numbers.

Nonetheless, this still marks a firming of economic activity, and the question the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and financial markets will be asking is whether this is enough to put off any thoughts of monetary easing in early 2025?

The answer to that question lies in the composition of this GDP release. 

Private demand is nowhere to be seen

Household consumption is missing in action

What we can see from the breakdown of GDP by component, is that there is almost no private domestic demand. The only positive contributors to GDP in 2Q24 were net exports (and even these were weaker than expected as mentioned) and general government spending.

Household consumption contributed nothing to growth in 3Q24. It has not done so for two quarters now. Private investment also contributed nothing. Inventories were a drag. At least that may set the scene for some inventory rebuilding later on, though that's not a very optimistic viewpoint if that is all there is to look forward to. 

Financial markets seem to agree, and the AUDUSD weakened to the low end of 64 cents after the release, while cash rate futures showed more chance of an RBA rate cut by April priced in following the release.

As for the RBA - nothing here to get excited about

As far as policy is concerned, there aren't too many takeaways from this. The GDP data is lagged and does not always tally with other high-frequency data like retail sales, or the labour market. These higher frequency releases are painting a rosier picture of growth than the GDP numbers. 

There also isn't too much read-across from these numbers to the inflation outlook. Soft domestic demand would suggest price pressures abating, but the core inflation numbers remain quite sticky. 

Taking all of this into account, we don't see any reason in these numbers to change our outlook for RBA policy, which is for the first rate cut in 1Q25, but with a decent chance that we will be pushing that forecast back later into 2025. 

Seoul shares traded almost 2 percent lower late Wednesday morning amid political uncertainties after President Yoon Suk Yeol's overnight declaration of martial law, which was lifted hours later.

The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) fell 48.47 points, or 1.94 percent, to 2,451.63 as of 11:20 a.m.

Foreigners sold a net 385.43 billion won ($273 million) worth of stocks, offsetting institutions and individuals' stock purchases valued at 358.58 billion won.

Late Tuesday, Yoon declared emergency martial law, accusing the main opposition Democratic Party of being "anti-state forces" paralyzing the operation of the nation with impeachment motions and a downsized budget bill.

But Yoon abandoned the martial law attempt, the country's first such motion in over four decades, early Wednesday after the National Assembly voted to overturn the declaration.

Most large-cap stocks declined.

Market bellwether Samsung Electronics fell 0.9 percent, leading home appliance maker LG Electronics shed 2.47 percent, and top carmaker Hyundai Motor was down 2.33 percent.

Leading battery maker LG Energy Solution declined 2.64 percent and another battery firm, Samsung SDI, also dropped 1.92 percent.

Among gainers, No. 2 wireless services provider KT rose 2.06 percent, dominant tobacco company KT&G climbed 1.14 percent and Korea Zinc, the world's largest refined zinc smelter, was up 5.97 percent.

Korea Zinc plans to hold a shareholders meeting next month on the appointment of new board members recommended by its biggest shareholder Young Poong and private equity firm MBK Partners.

Korea Zinc has been in a monthslong battle to fend off a takeover bid by the Young Poong side, which initiated the management tussle in September by launching a tender offer for an additional stake in the smelter.

The local currency was trading at 1,413.6 won against the U.S. dollar at 11:20 a.m., down 10.7 won from the previous session. (Yonhap)

Source: Koreatimes

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[Today's Focus]

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a range, around the 1.4070 area during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices remain close to the weekly high, though the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets. 

Crude Oil prices consolidate the previous day's strong gains amid expectations that OPEC+ will announce an extension of supply cuts on Thursday. Adding to this, Israel's threat to attack the Lebanese state if its truce with Hezbollah collapses lends some support to the black liquid. This, along with reduced bets for a bigger rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December, could underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful positive traction as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech. This might further contribute to capping gains for the USD/CAD pair. However, expectations that the Fed will take a cautious stance on cutting rates amid concerns that Trump's expansionary policies will boost inflation should act as a tailwind for the buck. 

Traders might also await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which should provide more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and influence the near-term USD price dynamics. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful USD/CAD slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

Economic Indicator

Fed's Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

Source: FXSTREET