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Taseko Mines keeps its Outperform rating and C$4.25 price target, National Bank of Canada said in a Thursday note after a first look at its Q4, which "Beat on Lower Costs" while the Florence Development "Remains on Track".
The bank said the rating is based on the company's "transformational growth" in the portfolio from completion of the Florence development project, defensibility in free cash flow throughout 2025 and supportive near-term catalysts. With Florence online, TKO production effectively doubles, with a commensurate 20% decline in operating costs, the bank noted.
National also noted Florence is being developed under a fixed-price contract mitigating significant capital escalation risks and the company has hedged near 87% of 2025 production with an average copper price floor of US$4.00/lb (average ceiling of US$5.20/lb) supporting the balance sheet at lower commodity prices.
The price target was based from a multiple of 1.0x NAV (50%) + 6.0x EV/2026 CF (50%).
Taseko's financial results in the fourth quarter of 2024 include an adjusted EBITDA of $56 million that went above the bank's estimates and consensus forecasts due to lower operating costs, National Bank said.
"All else equal, we expect the stock to trade above peers given the strong Q4 cost performance," the bank said. "The market will continue to focus on construction progress at Florence which is expected to gather pace in the coming quarters."
Taseko's share price was last seen up 5.5% at last look to $3.06 on the TSX.
Taseko Mines said Thursday that it swung to a loss in full-year 2024, while revenue increased year over year.
Net loss for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2024, was CA$13.4 million, compared with a profit of CA$82.7 million earlier. Loss per share was CA$0.05, compared with an EPS of CA$0.29.
On the other hand, adjusted net income was CA$56.9 million and adjusted EPS was CA$0.19, compared with the year-ago period's CA$44.4 million and CA$0.15, respectively.
The London-listed mining giant's revenue was CA$608.1 million, compared with CA$525 million a year ago.
B2Gold overnight Wednesday reported attributable net loss of US$0.01 per share in Q4 2024, and adjusted attributable net income of $0.01 per share in Q4 2024, which was below the consensus forecast of $0.06 for 11 analysts, according to FactSet. Among other highlights, BTO achieved 2024 Total Gold Production and Consolidated Cost Guidance and said the Goose Project "remains on track" for first gold in Q2 2025 while its Total Capital Estimate remains at C$1,540 Million. A Q1 2025 dividend of US$0.02 per share was declared.
Meanwhile, Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO; NYSE American: TGB; LSE: TKO) said for the fourth quarter, Adjusted EBITDA was $56 million, Earnings from mining operations before depletion and amortization and non-recurring items was $59 million and Cash flows from operations was $73 million. A Net loss of $21 million ($0.07 loss per share) was recorded and Adjusted net income was $10 million ($0.03 per share).
Among highlights, Gibraltar produced 29 million pounds of copper and 578 thousand pounds of molybdenum in the fourth quarter at Total operating costs (C1) of $2.42 per pound of copper produced. Mill throughput averaged 89,600 tons per day, which is the highest ever achieved for a quarter at Gibraltar.
For the year, copper production was 106 million pounds, in line with the revised production guidance, and molybdenum production was 1.4 million pounds. TKO said higher than normal scheduled downtime in both concentrators and an 18-day labour strike impacted annual production by approximately 15 million pounds in 2024. Copper grades in 2024 averaged 0.23% and Total operating costs (C1) were US$2.66 per pound produced.
Looking ahead, copper production in 2025 is expected to increase to 120 to 130 million pounds as mill operating time returns to normal levels and the restart of the SX/EW plant adds additional capacity. However, it said, production will be weighted to the back half of the year and the first quarter will be the lowest production quarter as lower grade ore stockpiles will be used to supplement mined ore from a new pushback in the Connector pit.
At Florence Copper, construction is "advancing on schedule", including all critical path items, and the overall project completion was over 60% as of the end of January. A total of 58 out of the 90 production wells to be drilled during the construction phase have now been completed. In the SX/EW area, construction activities are focussed on mechanical, piping and electrical installations. The erection of the electrowinning building has commenced, and construction of the tank farm is well advanced. Work in the pipe corridor continues with lining and pipe installation nearly complete.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, said, "We had a strong finish to the year at Gibraltar and, with both concentrators operating well, the mine achieved a new record for quarterly mill throughput. With stable milling operations expected in 2025 we expect a significant improvement in annual production of copper and molybdenum, although we will see lower head grades in the first part of the year during a new pushback in the Connector pit. The refurbishment of the SX/EW plant is progressing on schedule and first cathode production at Gibraltar is anticipated in the second quarter."
McDonald continued, "We remain pleased with the construction progress at Florence. Four drill rigs are advancing wellfield drilling which is scheduled for completion in the second quarter. Our construction workforce is currently at approximately 360 workers, and will reach peak manpower levels this quarter. First copper production continues to be targeted before the end of the year.
"The company remains in a solid financial position with a year end cash balance of $173 million and available liquidity of approximately $331 million, including our undrawn credit facility. Recent trends in global markets are benefitting Gibraltar as copper prices have risen 8% since the start of the year, and the Canadian dollar has weakened relative to the US dollar. Gibraltar's cost structure will also benefit this year from copper offtake contracts at average TC/RCs of zero, higher by-product credits from increased molybdenum production, and lower oil prices. Our copper price protection at a minimum price of US$4.00 per pound for all of 2025, provides additional downside protection. We're very excited about the year ahead as we're now less than 12 months from first copper production at Florence Copper, which is going to dramatically improve our business outlook.
He concluded: "In the longer term, the Yellowhead project represents another major growth opportunity for our North American copper business. We're advancing project permitting this year and also publishing a new technical report, with updated costing and metal prices, and incorporating the new Canadian tax credits available for copper mine development."
Elsewhere, Calibre Mining Corp. reported fourth quarter adjusted net earnings per share basic of US$0.05 compared to $0.00 a year earlier. Among highlights, the company said 2025 is set to be a "transformational year" as the multi-million ounce Valentine Gold Mine, Canada, advances to first gold during Q2, 2025.
Darren Hall, President and Chief Executive Officer, said: "Calibre delivered a record Q4 consolidated gold production of 76,269 ounces, and full year 2024 production of 242,487 ounces, surpassing the revised 2024 annual production guidance. As of February 15, 2025, the year is off to a strong start with consolidated production trending 15% higher than budget and cash increased to $161 million, a 23% increase over December 31, 2024.
"2025 is set to be a transformative year for Calibre, with the Valentine Gold Mine on track for first gold during the second quarter. We hired a high quality, experienced operating team through 2024 and are working with Reliable Controls Corporation to conduct pre-commissioning and commissioning to ensure operational readiness. In addition, all necessary equipment and resources for timely production are on site. Based on the 2022 Feasibility Study, Valentine's life-of-mine average production is expected to be approximately 195,000 ounces per year, with the process plant expected to reach 2.5 Mpta by the end of 2025.
"The exploration potential at Valentine is incredibly exciting. We have seen continued success since the discovery made southwest of the Leprechaun deposit in late 2024 with initial drill results returning grades more than 40% above Mineral Reserve grade. As we progress during 2025, we are preparing for the largest pure exploration program in Valentine's history. With tens of kilometres of the Valentine Lake Shear Zone and the Parallel Northwest Contact still untested, we remain optimistic about the significant upside potential as we advance efforts to establish this district as a new gold camp.
"With strong gold prices, consistent operating performance, successful exploration results and Valentine on track to enhance diversification and growth, I am confident that we will continue delivering superior value for our shareholders."
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