Trump May Use Bitcoin as US Reserve Asset on 'Day One' — How High Will BTC Price Go?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

A potential Trump executive order making Bitcoin a US reserve asset might drive a $20 billion BTC purchase in 2025.

President-elect Donald Trump will likely issue an executive order on his first day in office to designate Bitcoin as a United States reserve asset, according to Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike.

A 200K Bitcoin buy order is coming in January 2025?

In a podcast interview with YouTuber Tim Pool, Mallers said that Trump could rely on provisions within a so-called “Dollar Stabilization Act,” which grants him considerable authority to protect the US dollar.

“There’s potential to use a day-one executive order to purchase Bitcoin,” Mallers said, adding:

“It wouldn't be the size and scale of 1 million coins but it would be a significant position."

The Bitcoin Act of 2024, introduced by pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis in July, proposes that the Treasury and Federal Reserve purchase 200,000 BTC annually over five years, accumulating 1 million Bitcoin BTC$104,526.

The reserve would be held for at least 20 years, thereby taking 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply (of 21 million tokens) from circulation.

These speculations have resulted in some lofty new BTC price targets for 2025 and beyond.

Bitcoin price may hit $800,000 by 2025’s end

According to Perianne Boring, founder of The Digital Chamber, Bitcoin’s capped supply could lead to significant price appreciation, especially if Trump successfully implements many of his proposed crypto policies.

“If Donald Trump is successful in putting forth a lot of the proposals that he’s proposed to the [crypto] community, the sky is the limit because Bitcoin has a fixed supply,” Boring said in an interview with Fox Business.

She pointed to the stock-to-flow model, which forecasts Bitcoin’s price to exceed $800,000 by the end of 2025. Such a surge would push Bitcoin’s market capitalization to around $15 trillion, up from its current valuation of over $2 trillion.

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, predicts Bitcoin to average around a $500,000 valuation across 2025. However, he said that the price may go as high as $1 million.

BlackRock suggests 1-2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin

The stock-to-flow model’s Bitcoin price prediction hinges on the assumption that demand for BTC will continue to increase.

The US Treasury, theoretically accumulating 200,000 BTC each year, reinforces the idea of stronger demand since it’ll likely force other countries to consider strategic Bitcoin reserves of their own.

BlackRock, which manages over $10 trillion worth of assets, is already recommending investors allocate 1-2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

“We see a case for investors with suitable governance and risk tolerance to include Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio,” four senior executives, including Samara Cohen, chief investment officer of ETFs, and Paul Henderson, senior portfolio strategist of BlackRock Investment Institute, said in a report published Dec. 12.

To put this into perspective, the total global reserve assets are valued at about $900 trillion. A 2% allocation to Bitcoin from this pool would theoretically drive the cryptocurrency’s price to around $900,000 per unit.

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Stocks

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures are up +0.18%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +0.30% this morning as market participants looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy committee meeting of the year as well as the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and other key economic data later in the week.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a new all-time high and the blue-chip Dow posting a 3-week low. Broadcom soared over +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker reported better-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and provided upbeat FQ1 revenue guidance.

Also, RH surged more than +16% after raising its full-year revenue growth forecast. In addition, Tesla gained over +4% after Reuters reported that the Trump transition team intends to cancel an order mandating carmakers to report crashes involving self-driving systems. On the bearish side, Toll Brothers slid more than -3% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. import price index unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m in November, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m, while the export price index was unchanged m/m in November, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference will take center stage this week. With Fed officials widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, investors are shifting their focus to any indications of how much more rates might be reduced in 2025. Market watchers will closely follow the central bank’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which shows FOMC member forecasts regarding the path of interest rates.

On the economic data front, the November reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight this week. Investors will also be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, GDP (third estimate), Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, Leading Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

In addition, several notable companies like Nike, Micron Technology , FedEx, Lennar , Accenture, and Carnival Corp are slated to release their quarterly results this week.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the December Manufacturing PMI will come in at 49.4, compared to last month’s value of 49.7.

Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which arrived at 56.1 in November. Economists foresee the preliminary December figure to be 55.7.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to stand at 6.40 in December, compared to last month’s value of 31.20.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.373%, down -0.59%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.22% this morning as investors digested business activity data from the region and braced for a series of central bank meetings, including the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England. Food and automobile stocks led the declines on Monday. A survey released on Monday showed that the downturn in Eurozone business activity moderated in December, as the bloc’s dominant services sector unexpectedly returned to growth, offsetting the prolonged contraction in manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2 late Friday, pointing to concerns over deteriorating public finances amid ongoing political instability. In other news, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to face a confidence vote on Monday, with expectations of a loss that could lead to snap elections early next year.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Monday, “If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further.”

Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary), Italy’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Labor Cost Index were released today.

Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.2, weaker than expectations of 45.3.

Eurozone December Services PMI arrived at 51.4, stronger than expectations of 49.5.

The Italian November CPI stood at -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, better than expectations of 0.0% m/m and +1.4% y/y.

Eurozone Labor Cost Index has been reported at +4.60% y/y in the third quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.16% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.03%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors digested a mixed batch of economic data from the country. Semiconductor and consumer durable stocks led the declines on Monday.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday that retail sales, a key indicator of consumption in China, grew at the slowest rate in three months in November, falling short of even the lowest forecasts. Also, data showed that new home prices in China fell for the 17th consecutive month, indicating persistent struggles in the property sector. At the same time, industrial output growth exceeded forecasts in November.

The latest data suggest that while Beijing’s recent stimulus efforts have helped stabilize growth, they have not yet persuaded consumers to increase their spending. Economists believe that the speed and rollout of the stimulus measures will be crucial for ensuring a sustained economic recovery.

Meanwhile, an official from the People’s Bank of China signaled over the weekend that the central bank intends to lower interest rates and reserve requirements next year. In corporate news, Mabwell Shanghai Bioscience slid over -6% after its directors approved a secondary listing on the Hong Kong exchange. Investors now await the PBOC’s loan prime rate decisions later this week.

The Chinese November Industrial Production came in at +5.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.3% y/y.

The Chinese November Retail Sales arrived at +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y.

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment stood at +3.3% y/y in the January-November period, weaker than expectations of +3.4% y/y.

The Chinese November Unemployment Rate was 5.0%, in line with expectations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just below the flatline today as caution prevailed ahead of major central bank meetings this week. Losses in railway and insurance stocks offset gains in machinery and brokerage stocks on Monday.

Business surveys released on Monday showed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month due to subdued demand, while the service sector continued to expand in December, underscoring the economy’s growing dependence on services.

Separately, data showed that Japan’s core machinery orders, excluding those for ships and electric power companies, rose more than expected in October, indicating a positive outlook for capital spending in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. Reuters and other media outlets reported last week that the BOJ is inclined to maintain rates steady.

At the same time, JPMorgan’s Japan Economic Research team stated in a note on Monday that the BOJ is likely to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, noting that the balance of recent data seems to fulfill conditions for a rate hike. In corporate news, Sumida slumped over -8% after lowering its 2024 guidance due to reduced demand for xEV, solar power, and industrial products. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -7.72% to 19.96.

The Japanese October Core Machinery Orders came in at +2.1% m/m and +5.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y.

The Japanese December au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 49.5, stronger than expectations of 49.2.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Super Micro Computer plunged over -12% in pre-market trading following a Bloomberg report that the company reached out to Evercore to assist in raising capital. Also, Nasdaq said late Friday that the company will be removed from the Nasdaq 100 index later this month.

Ford fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $9.

Netflix dropped about -0.6% in pre-market trading after Loop Capital downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) firmed above the key 1.0450 horizontal support line after S&P Global's Services PMI rose to 41.4 in December from 49.5 in November. The consensus expected another 49.5 reading; a PMI above 50 represents growth for the sector.

The headline points to an unexpected consumer resilience, which can underpin the Eurozone economy while providing a much-needed positive surprise for the euro.

However, EUR/USD upside will be limited as the remainder of the PMI report pointed to ongoing challenges facing Europe.

The Manufacturing PMI stayed at 45.2, which is deep in contractionary territory, whereas the consensus looked for improvement (45.3).

The Composite PMI, which balances these data to arrive at a more representative gauge of the wider economy, read at 49.5, which is above November's 48.5.

S&P Global says output was scaled back amid sustained reductions in new orders and the pace of job cuts was the fastest in four years as companies responded to a drop in workloads by lowering their staffing levels.

This is a relevant finding for the European Central Bank (ECB), which thinks falling employment will lower wages, which will, in turn, lower inflationary pressures.

Investment bank EUR/USD consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. Featuring the median, mean, high and low points forecasted by over 30 investment banks.

The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, citing economic weakness and growing confidence that inflation was back under control.

These PMI data will, on balance, reinforce the message and keep the door ajar to further cuts at the ECB in 2025.

"These data will strengthen ECB policymakers’ view that further interest rate cuts are needed. There doesn’t yet seem to be much appetite for 50bp rate cuts, but that could change if the data remain very weak. And even if the Bank continues to move in 25bp steps, we think it will lower rates a bit further than investors currently expect," says Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Euro-zone Economist.

Should the ECB 'outcut' the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, then the Euro will likely remain under pressure against the Dollar and Pound.

However, the ECB confirmed it is not on autopilot and will still respond to the incoming data. Caution is warranted as the PMI report said inflation rates of both input costs and output prices quickened at the end of the year, with charges rising at a pace that remained above the series average.

The Eurozone's economic malaise remains centred on falls in its two largest economies, Germany and France. Both remained in contraction during December, with rates of decline easing only slightly from the previous month.

In contrast, the rest of the Eurozone posted a solid increase in output at the year's end, with the expansion rate reaching a six-month high.

Euro-Dollar looks set to be supported above 1.0450 this week, with further gains possible, potentially taking in 1.0580. Much will also depend on Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision, where an interest rate cut is anticipated.

The cut is 'in the price' of the Dollar, but markets will be interested in hearing how the Fed communicates that it will forgo another cut in January.

Messaging will be important, but we don't think there will be enough said or done to break the 1.0450-1.06 range that is being cemented in Euro-Dollar's shorter-term charts.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alex

Economic

Forex

NZD/USD breaks its four-day losing streak, trading around 0.5780 during the European hours on Monday. The New Zealand (NZD) remains stronger following the recent data from its largest trading partner, China. However, the upside of the Kiwi Dollar could be restrained due to the increased likelihood of a further aggressive easing approach from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) early in 2025.

Recent reports indicate that China, a key trade partner for New Zealand, saw industrial output perform better than expected. However, this optimism was tempered by significantly lower-than-forecast Retail Sales and a continued decline in house prices.

China's annual Industrial Production rose by 5.4% in November, surpassing the market expectation of a 5.3% increase. In contrast, Retail Sales grew by 3.0% year-on-year in November, falling short of the anticipated 4.6% and the previous reading of 4.8%.

Domestically, the Business NZ Performance of Services Index climbed to 49.5 in November, up from 46.2 in October, marking its highest level since February. Additionally, the Food Price Index increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, slightly above the 1.2% rise recorded in October.

The US Dollar (USD) remains subdued amid tepid US Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision set for Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its final monetary policy meeting of 2024. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut at the Fed's December meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades near 106.80 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.23% and 4.38%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Source: FXSTREET

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

SAXO

Economic

Central Bank

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis-points (bps) rate cut this week, reducing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. With the Fed's moves becoming more data-driven, investors will be paying close attention to the tone of Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks and the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), especially the dot plot, which provides insights into the rate path for 2025 and beyond.

Rate Cut This Week: A 'Hawkish' Cut?

The Fed Funds futures show a 95% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting, following a similar move in November. This could come on the back of:

Labor Market Softening: The unemployment rate has edged higher to 4.2% in November, while labor force participation declined. This slowdown in job market strength could justify additional rate cuts to prevent excessive labor market slack.

Easing Shelter Inflation: While the last mile of inflation has been proving sticky, there was a sense of relief in housing inflation in the latest update. Shelter costs, a key driver of inflation, have started to ease as new rental leases are renegotiated. Since shelter has been a sticky component of inflation, any relief here strengthens the case for rate cuts.

While the rate cut is almost fully priced in, the market will be watching for any signals of a "hawkish cut." This means that while the Fed is easing policy, it could signal caution about the pace of future cuts, either through the committee’s updated dot plot or via Chair Powell’s press conference.

2025 Rate Path: Will the Fed Pause?

There’s growing chatter about the Fed possibly skipping a rate cut in January 2025, signaling a potential pause in the easing cycle. Why might this happen?

Sticky Inflation: While shelter inflation is easing, other components of inflation remain persistent, complicating the Fed's ability to justify an aggressive pace of cuts.

Resilient Economy: Recent economic data has shown surprising resilience, which may prompt the Fed to take a more measured approach in cutting rates further.

Trump-flation Risks: With the new Trump administration likely to focus on trade tariffs early on after taking office on January 20, there is risk that it could create upside risks to inflation, which could make the Fed more cautious about future cuts.

Fed Preview: Rate Cut on Deck, But With 2025 Caution_1

The dot plot, which reflects each FOMC member’s rate expectations, will be critical for market sentiment as it gives insights into the Fed members’ thinking. The dots for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will provide clues on how aggressively the Fed sees rates coming down.

2025 Outlook: The previous dot plot indicated four rate cuts (100bps) for 2025, but this could be revised to just three or even two cuts as inflation risks remain elevated. Consensus expects 2025 dot to move to 3.625% from 3.375%, signalling a baseline view of three rate cuts next year. If the 2025 dot moved to 3.875%, signalling just two rate cuts next year, that will be a considerable hawkish surprise for the market.

Longer-Term Rates: Projections for 2026 could also shift to two cuts, reflecting a slower normalization path. Consensus expects end-2026 rate to be at 3.125% from 2.875% projected by the dot plot in September.

Terminal Rate: The "long-run" neutral rate could also tick higher to 3% from 2.875% in September, reflecting a structurally higher interest rate environment.

Updated Economic Forecasts: The SEP is likely to be revised to show higher 2024 core PCE inflation from 2.6% in September, lower unemployment from 4.4%, and stronger GDP growth projections for 2024.

Fed Preview: Rate Cut on Deck, But With 2025 Caution_2

Market Implications and Portfolio Strategies

Equity Market Reaction: Markets have priced in the 25bps cut, but if the Fed signals fewer cuts in 2025, risk assets like equities may see renewed volatility. A hawkish tone could put downward pressure on equity valuations, especially growth stocks that are more sensitive to higher rates. Other interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as homebuilders and small-caps, could also face headwinds. Investors may consider rotating into defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples if the Fed signals a slower pace of cuts.

Fixed Income Positioning: If the dot plot hints at a higher terminal rate or fewer cuts in 2025, the yield curve could bear flatten, with short-term yields rising relative to longer-term yields. This could expose short-duration bonds to downside risk as yields rise.

FX Strategy: A hawkish rate cut could be USD-supportive, driving demand for the dollar. While there’s potential for a short-term pullback in USD due to year-end seasonality and stretched positioning, any dips may be seen as a buying opportunity. The Trump administration’s potential pro-dollar policies, such as heightened tariff talks, could support the USD in 2025. Meanwhile, Japanese yen faces downside risks if US 10-year yields jump higher, and tariff threats could weigh on the Chinese yuan, euro, and Australian dollar heading into 2025.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Stocks

Shares retreated Monday in Asia after China reported lackluster economic indicators for November, while bitcoin surged to fresh highs, topping $106,000.

Oil prices fell and U.S. futures were little changed.

Bitcoin was trading at $104,948 early Monday, up 3.4% but down from an earlier high of $106,495.

The price of the cryptocurrency has surged since the election in November given U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s bitcoin-friendly stance. Trump signaled a lighter regulatory approach to digital currencies with his choice of crypto advocate Paul Atkins to be the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin was trading below $70,000 before the Nov. 5 election.

A report Monday showed Chinese retail sales slowed in November, while growth in factory output was flat and home sales declined. The report said the economy and employment were stable, but noted a complicated “external environment,” reflecting unease over the outlook in coming months once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, potentially delivering on promises to sharply hike tariffs on imports from China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index edged 0.1% lower, to 39,438.74, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 0.8% to 19,821.24.The Shanghai Composite index was almost unchanged, at 3,390.91.

South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.3% to 2,486.47 as South Korean law enforcement authorities were pushing to summon impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning over his short-lived martial law decree and the Constitutional Court met to discuss whether to remove him from office or reinstate him.

Taiwan’s Taiex edged 0.1% higher, while the Sensex in India fell 0.4%. Thailand’s SET dropped 0.9%.

On Friday, major stock indexes on Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Friday, capping a rare bumpy week for the market.

The S&P 500 ended essentially flat, down less than 0.1% at 6,051.09. The benchmark index posted a loss for the week, its first after three straight weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% to 43,828.06, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1% to 19,926.72, ending just below the record high it set on Wednesday.

There were more than twice as many decliners than gainers on the New York Stock Exchange.

Gains in technology stocks helped temper losses in communication services, financials and other sectors of the market.

Broadcom surged 24.4% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 after the semiconductor company beat Wall Street’s profit targets and gave a glowing forecast, highlighting its artificial intelligence products. The company also raised its dividend.

But some tech stocks were a drag on the market. Nvidia fell 2.2%, Meta Platforms dropped 1.7% and Google parent Alphabet slid 1.1%.

Among the market’s other decliners were Airbnb, which fell 4.7% for the biggest loss in the S&P 500, and Charles Schwab, which closed 4% lower.

Furniture and housewares company RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, surged 17% after raising its forecast for revenue growth for the year.

Wall Street’s rally stalled this week amid mixed economic reports and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for a third time since September when it meets this week.

Expectations of a series of rate cuts has driven the S&P 500 to 57 all-time highs so far this year.

The Fed has been lowering its benchmark interest rate after aggressively hiking rates to tame inflation. It raised rates from near-zero in early 2022 to a two-decade high by the middle of 2023. Inflation eased under pressure from higher interest rates, nearly to the central bank’s 2% target.

The economy, including consumer spending and employment, held strong despite the squeeze from inflation and high borrowing costs. A slowing job market, though, has helped push a long-awaited reversal of the Fed’s policy.

In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 47 cents to $70.82 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 36 cents to $74.13 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar fell to 153.62 Japanese yen from 153.71 yen. The euro rose to $1.0516 from $1.0491.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

ING

Economic

Commodity

Energy – China’s apparent oil demand declines

The latest industrial output data from China shows that refiners reduced activity in November. Crude processed in the month fell to the lowest in five months at around 14.3m b/d as some processors shut plants for seasonal maintenance. As per the recent data from Mysteel OilChem, five state-owned plants were shut for seasonal maintenance last month. This includes Sinopec Fujian Refining & Chemical Co., which has an annual refining capacity of 12mt. Meanwhile, apparent domestic demand was also weaker, falling by around 2.1% year-on-year to a little more than 14m b/d. Cumulative apparent demand fell by 3.3% YoY to 14m b/d over the first 11 months of the year.

The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active US oil rigs remained unchanged over the week at 482, after rising by five in the preceding week. The total rig count (oil and gas combined) also remains steady at 589 over the reporting week. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, decreased by three over the week to 217.

Weekly positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that managed money net long position in NYMEX WTI dropped after rising for two consecutive weeks. Money managers trimmed net longs in NYMEX WTI by 12,448 lots over the week to 103,986 lots as of 10 December 2024. On the other hand, exchange data shows that speculators have built fresh longs of 5,349 lots in ICE Brent over the last week, leaving them with 162,273 lots of net long position. The persistent concerns around the Russia-Ukraine war along with the probability of fresh US sanctions on Russian crude have been keeping the speculative interest in energy commodities high.

In products, net bullish bets for gasoline jumped to their highest level since mid-April 2024. Speculators boosted the net longs for gasoline by 6,546 lots (after reporting declines for two straight weeks) to 73,037 lots for the week ending 10 December 2024. There are suggestions that the gasoline supply could tighten next year due to the planned refinery outages and closures. LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery is set to close by the end of the first quarter and will start idling as early as January. The refinery processes about 264k b/d.

Metals – Chinese aluminium production hits record highs

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning show that Chinese monthly primary aluminium production rose 3.6% YoY to reach a record of 3.7mt in November as rising overseas export demand helped the metal output stay elevated. Along with that, record alumina prices also helped the nationwide production of the lightweight metal to remain high despite reports of some smelters reducing output. Cumulatively, output rose 4.6% YoY to 40.2mt over the first 11 months of the year. Among other metals, monthly crude steel production fell 4.3% month-on-month to 78.4mt last month primarily due to tighter margins and seasonally weakening downstream steel consumption. Meanwhile, cumulative output fell 2.7% YoY to 929.2mt in the January-November 2024 period.

According to media reports, Japanese aluminium buyers were offered a premium of US$228/t (the highest premium since 2015) for the first quarter of 2025, up from US$175/t (+30% quarter-on-quarter) this quarter. However, it is slightly lower than the initial offers of US$230-260/t. The increase in premiums reflects expectations of tighter supply in Asia after China cancelled a 13% tax rebate on aluminium products from 1 December 2024.

In mine supply, Peru’s latest official numbers showed that copper output in the country fell 1.3% YoY to 237kt in October. It is reported that cumulative output loses from mines like Cerro Verde, and Quellaveco’s primarily contributed to Peru’s overall production decline in October. Cumulatively, production declined 0.7% YoY to 2.23mt for the first 10 months of the year.

Meanwhile, weekly data from Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) shows that inventories for base metals remained mixed over the last week. Aluminium weekly stocks fell by 9,875 tonnes for a seventh consecutive week to 214,501 tonnes as of last Friday, the lowest since 10 May 2024. Copper inventories decreased by 13,199 tonnes (-13.5% week-on-week) for the eighth week straight to 84,557 tonnes (the lowest since 2 February 2024), while zinc inventories declined by 2,317 tonnes (-4.4% WoW) for a fourth consecutive week to 50,666 tonnes (the lowest since 9 February 2024) at the end of last week. In contrast, weekly inventories for lead and nickel rose by 8.3% and 1.7% respectively.

The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their net longs of COMEX copper by 1,460 lots for a second consecutive week to 12,635 lots as of 10 December. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX gold increased by 18,792 lots for the third week straight to 220,189 lots over the last reporting week. The move was fuelled by rising gross longs by 17,826 lots to 236,267 lots for the reporting week. Similarly, speculators increased net longs of silver by 5,792 lots for a second consecutive week to 30,685 lots over the last Tuesday.

Agriculture – China’s grain production estimates at record highs

Recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics show that China grain production could rise 1.6% YoY to a record high of 706.5mt for 2024. The above includes the corn production estimate of 294.9mt (+2.1% YoY), while the wheat production forecast stood at 140.1mt (+2.6% YoY) for the above-mentioned period. The rise in production estimates could be largely attributed to the favourable weather conditions for the grain crops in major producing regions, despite some regions experiencing floods, droughts and other disasters.

The latest estimates from the Western Australia Grain Association show that wheat harvest from the country’s top wheat-producing state could rise to 10.83mt for the 2024/25 season, above its previous estimates of 10.33mt. Overall grain production estimates have been revised higher and there is still a week or two of harvest remaining in some regions.

The latest CFTC data shows that money managers decreased their net bearish bets in CBOT soybean by 13,897 lots for a second week straight over the last week, leaving them with a net short position of 58,320 lots as of 10 December 2024. The move was predominantly driven by falling gross shorts by 12,166 lots. Similarly, speculators decreased their net short in CBOT wheat by 2,607 lots after reporting gains for four consecutive weeks to 66,779 lots as of last Tuesday. The move was led by falling short positions with gross shorts decreasing by 3,481 lots to 149,272 lots. Meanwhile, net speculative long positions in CBOT corn rose significantly by 77,670 lots after declining for two consecutive weeks to 165,890 lots (the most bullish bets since 21 February 2023) over the last reporting week, following an increase in gross longs by 53,471 lots to 327,099 lots.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Trump May Use Bitcoin as US Reserve Asset on 'Day One' — How High Will BTC Price Go?

A 200K Bitcoin buy order is coming in January 2025?

Bitcoin price may hit $800,000 by 2025’s end

BlackRock suggests 1-2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin

Source: Cointelegraph

Stocks Set to Open Higher as Investors Await Fed Meeting and Key U.S. Inflation Data

Source: Reuters

Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate Short-term Outlook Firms On Eurozone PMI Surprise

Source: Poundsterlinglive

Nzd/usd Holds Gains Above 0.5750 Following Mixed Data From China

Source: FXSTREET

Fed Preview: Rate Cut on Deck, But With 2025 Caution

Rate Cut This Week: A 'Hawkish' Cut?

2025 Rate Path: Will the Fed Pause?

Market Implications and Portfolio Strategies

Stock Market Today: Asian Shares Fall as China Reports Lackluster Data, While Bitcoin Hits New Highs

Source: AP

The Commodities Feed: Rangebound Crude

Energy – China’s apparent oil demand declines

Metals – Chinese aluminium production hits record highs

Agriculture – China’s grain production estimates at record highs

Risk Disclosure