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(Adds share price move in first paragraph, and National Bank commentary in the second and third paragraphs).
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE: SAND and TSX: SSL) was at last look up more than 1% after it provided Monday various asset updates from its diversified stream and royalty portfolio.
National Bank, which has an Outperform rating and C$11 target on the stock, noted Sandstorm has provided an operational update on a few of its key producing assets and advanced stages development assets. It said the release gives it more confidence in the company's 2025/five-year outlook and continued deleveraging given strong commodity prices.
The bank noted SSL forecasts 2025 sales of 65,000 to 80,000 GEOs compared to National Bank Financial at near 72,900 GEOs and 2024 sales of 72,810 GEOs. SSL announced five-year guidance of about 150,000 GEOs in 2030 after adding the company's gold stream option on the MARA project (NBF Estimates 148, 230 GEOs, incl. initial production from Hod Maden of about 40, 400 GEOs and contributions of 22, 000 GEOs from MARA). Given this expected growth, National Bank said its Base Case accounts for accelerating debt repayment with current leverage of near 2.6x decreasing to sub-1.2x mid-2026 when the bank accounts for initial payments commencing for the MARA stream.
Sandstorm has provided an operational update on a few of its key producing assets and advanced stages development assets. The release gives us more confidence in the company's 2025/five-year outlook and continued deleveraging given strong commodity prices.
SSL forecasts 2025 sales of 65,000 - 80,000 GEOs compared to NBF at ~72,900 GEOs and 2024 sales of 72,810 GEOs. SSL announced five-year guidance of ~150,000 GEOs in 2030 after adding the company's gold stream option on the MARA project (NBF Estimate: ~148, 230 GEOs, incl. initial production from Hod Maden of ~40, 400 GEOs and contributions of 22, 000 GEOs from MARA). Given this expected growth, our Base Case accounts for accelerating debt repayment with current leverage of ~2.6x decreasing to sub-1.2x mid-2026 when we account for initial payments commencing for the MARA stream.
Among highlights, it noted Fruta del Norte (FDN) achieved its largest reserve and resource estimate to date, and increased inferred resources by 59%. Following record annual production in 2024 of over half a million gold ounces, Lundin Gold Inc. has published a significant increase in the Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources at the FDN mine in Ecuador, with plans to publish an Initial Mineral Resource for the Bonza Sur deposit later in the year. Sandstorm holds a 0.9% net smelter returns royalty on the precious metals produced at FDN.
Of other highlights, it noted Platreef expansion studies target phase 1 production in 2025 and phase 2 expansion in 2027. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. has released "positive" results from two independent studies covering the three-phase Platreef mine in South Africa. Sandstorm holds a gold stream on the Platreef mine whereby the company is entitled to purchase 37.5% of payable gold produced from it until 131,250 gold ounces have been delivered, then 30% of payable gold produced until an aggregate of 256,980 ounces are delivered. Sandstorm will make ongoing cash payments of $100 per ounce of gold. The company sees annual average gold deliveries of 1,000-2,000 ounces during Phase 1, increasing up to 10,000 ounces with Phase 2 production. Longer term, the company forecasts gold deliveries of between 15,000-20,000 ounces per year once all three phases achieve full design capacity.
It also noted an Argentine incentive regime is stimulating advancement at Gualcamayo DCP and MARA Project. Sandstorm has several royalties on the Gualcamayo mine summating to a 1.0-3.0% NSR royalty on production from oxides, a 2.5% NSR on production from the DCP, and a US$30 million production payment upon commercial production at the DCP. In 2025, Sandstorm anticipates operations at Gualcamayo to exceed the production threshold, triggering the company's 3.0% NSR on oxides production. Recently, Sandstorm noted, Glencore plc stated that it plans to submit a RIGI application for the MARA copper-gold project in the first half of 2025. Glencore has earmarked $400 million towards its two Argentine development assets, of which, MARA is the most advanced and lowest capital intensity. MARA will utilize the existing Alumbrera plant, which continues to operate, to processes ore from the Agua Rica deposit located approximately 34 kilometres away. Glencore estimates MARA will produce approximately 200,000 tonnes of copper equivalent per year with a mine life exceeding 20 years.
Related to the Argentine news, Sandstorm holds an option on the MARA project to convert its 0.25% NSR royalty into a 20% gold stream. Under this arrangement, the company may make a maximum total payment of $225 million-disbursed in quarterly installments during the construction period, proportionate to overall project spending. Under the terms of the MARA gold stream, the company will have the right to purchase an amount of gold equal to 20% of the life of mine for ongoing payments equal to 30% of the spot price of gold.
Also, Sandstorm noted Equinox Gold ramped up Greenstone toward nameplate capacity. Sandstorm holds a gold stream on the Greenstone mine whereby it is entitled to purchase 2.375% of gold produced at the mine until 120,333 ounces are delivered, and then 1.583% of gold produced thereafter. Sandstorm will make ongoing payments equal to 20% of the spot price of gold per ounce plus an additional payment of up to $30 per ounce in ESG contributions.
Finally, Sandstorm noted the Woodlawn plant is 70% complete, with mining to commence in the first quarter. Sandstorm has a silver stream on the Woodlawn project whereby the company has the right to receive an amount of silver equal to 80% of payable silver produced, to a maximum value of A$27 million. In addition, the company holds a second stream on Woodlawn under which the operator has agreed to pay Sandstorm A$1.0 million for each 1 million tonnes of tailings ore processed at Woodlawn, subject to a cumulative cap of A$10 million.
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE: SAND and TSX: SSL) provided Monday various asset updates from its diversified stream and royalty portfolio.
Among highlights, it noted Fruta del Norte (FDN) achieved its largest reserve and resource estimate to date, and increased inferred resources by 59%. Following record annual production in 2024 of over half a million gold ounces, Lundin Gold Inc. has published a significant increase in the Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources at the FDN mine in Ecuador, with plans to publish an Initial Mineral Resource for the Bonza Sur deposit later in the year. Sandstorm holds a 0.9% net smelter returns royalty on the precious metals produced at FDN.
Of other highlights, it noted Platreef expansion studies target phase 1 production in 2025 and phase 2 expansion in 2027. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. has released "positive" results from two independent studies covering the three-phase Platreef mine in South Africa. Sandstorm holds a gold stream on the Platreef mine whereby the company is entitled to purchase 37.5% of payable gold produced from it until 131,250 gold ounces have been delivered, then 30% of payable gold produced until an aggregate of 256,980 ounces are delivered. Sandstorm will make ongoing cash payments of $100 per ounce of gold. The company sees annual average gold deliveries of 1,000-2,000 ounces during Phase 1, increasing up to 10,000 ounces with Phase 2 production. Longer term, the company forecasts gold deliveries of between 15,000-20,000 ounces per year once all three phases achieve full design capacity.
It also noted an Argentine incentive regime is stimulating advancement at Gualcamayo DCP and MARA Project. Sandstorm has several royalties on the Gualcamayo mine summating to a 1.0-3.0% NSR royalty on production from oxides, a 2.5% NSR on production from the DCP, and a US$30 million production payment upon commercial production at the DCP. In 2025, Sandstorm anticipates operations at Gualcamayo to exceed the production threshold, triggering the company's 3.0% NSR on oxides production. Recently, Sandstorm noted, Glencore plc stated that it plans to submit a RIGI application for the MARA copper-gold project in the first half of 2025. Glencore has earmarked $400 million towards its two Argentine development assets, of which, MARA is the most advanced and lowest capital intensity. MARA will utilize the existing Alumbrera plant, which continues to operate, to processes ore from the Agua Rica deposit located approximately 34 kilometres away. Glencore estimates MARA will produce approximately 200,000 tonnes of copper equivalent per year with a mine life exceeding 20 years.
Related to the Argentine news, Sandstorm holds an option on the MARA project to convert its 0.25% NSR royalty into a 20% gold stream. Under this arrangement, the company may make a maximum total payment of $225 million-disbursed in quarterly installments during the construction period, proportionate to overall project spending. Under the terms of the MARA gold stream, the company will have the right to purchase an amount of gold equal to 20% of the life of mine for ongoing payments equal to 30% of the spot price of gold.
Also, Sandstorm noted Equinox Gold ramped up Greenstone toward nameplate capacity. Sandstorm holds a gold stream on the Greenstone mine whereby it is entitled to purchase 2.375% of gold produced at the mine until 120,333 ounces are delivered, and then 1.583% of gold produced thereafter. Sandstorm will make ongoing payments equal to 20% of the spot price of gold per ounce plus an additional payment of up to $30 per ounce in ESG contributions.
Finally, Sandstorm noted the Woodlawn plant is 70% complete, with mining to commence in the first quarter. Sandstorm has a silver stream on the Woodlawn project whereby the company has the right to receive an amount of silver equal to 80% of payable silver produced, to a maximum value of A$27 million. In addition, the company holds a second stream on Woodlawn under which the operator has agreed to pay Sandstorm A$1.0 million for each 1 million tonnes of tailings ore processed at Woodlawn, subject to a cumulative cap of A$10 million.
Sandstorm was down $0.25 or 2.85% at $8.52 on the TSX.
Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca
(17:01 GMT) Sandstorm Gold Inc. Price Target Cut to C$8.25/Share From C$8.50 by Raymond James
Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca
Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca
(17:01 GMT) Sandstorm Gold Inc. Is Maintained at Neutral by CIBC World Markets
Ratings actions from Baystreet: http://www.baystreet.ca
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL.T) is currently at C$8.14, down C$1.02 or 11.14%
All data as of 11:58:42 AM ET
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet
RBC Capital Markets and National Bank of Canada maintained their ratings and price targets on the shares of Sandstorm Gold following fourth-quarter results from the royalty and streaming company.
RBC said in a Wednesday note that it kept Sandstorm's outperform rating and US$6.50 price target following its mixed results in the fourth quarter, including an adjusted earnings miss of US$0.02 and in-line free cash flow of US$28 million.
National Bank said Tuesday that it retained its outperform rating and $11.00 price target on the company's shares.
"We continue to believe the more diversified and expanded portfolio will ultimately warrant a re-rating towards that of larger-cap peers," the bank said.
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