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Elastic handily surpassed Wall Street’s earnings expectations and lifted its outlook, sending shares in the enterprise data software company sharply higher on Friday. Monitor these important chart levels.
Elastic handily surpassed Wall Street’s earnings expectations and lifted its outlook, sending shares in the enterprise data software company sharply higher.
Today's earnings-driven jump adds to the stock’s bullish price momentum after it broke out from a descending channel ahead of earnings.
Investors should watch key overhead levels on Elastic's chart around $118 and $133, while also keeping an eye on major support levels near $94 and $82.
Elastic (ESTC) handily surpassed Wall Street’s earnings expectations and lifted its outlook, sending shares in the enterprise data software company sharply higher on Friday.
The company now sees fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 15%, up from its prior projection in August of 14%, with the boosted outlook driven by continued enterprise demand for the software maker’s generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications and platform consolidation.
Elastic shares were up 15% in early afternoon trading at around $108, narrowing the year-to-date loss to about 4%. Prior to Friday’s gain, the stock has been weighed down this year by segmentation changes that led to a lower number of customer contracts.
Below, we take a closer look at Elastic’s chart and use technical analysis to identify key post-earnings price levels worth watching out for.
Elastic shares traded within an eight-month descending channel before breaking out above the pattern’s upper trendline on Thursday ahead of the company’s quarterly results. Importantly, the move higher occurred on the highest trading volume since late August, indicating that some market participants had positioned for a better-than-expected earnings report.
Friday’s earnings-driven jump adds to the stock’s recent bullish price momentum, but also triggers a heavily overbought relative strength index (RSI) reading, which could lead to near-term profit taking.
Let’s identify two key overhead areas on Elastic’s chart that investors may be watching and also point out major support levels to monitor during retracements.
The first overhead level to watch sits around $118. This area will likely attract significant attention, given its proximity to multiple swing highs that formed on the chart between December 2023 and July this year.
A convincing close above this level could act as a catalyst for a move up to the $133 region, a chart location where investors may look for exit points near a range of trading levels situated just below the stock’s 2024 high.
During pullbacks, investors should monitor how the stock’s price responds to the $94 level. An area that could encounter support near two prominent troughs that formed near the 200-day moving average (MA) in April and May.
Finally, selling below this level could see the shares revisit lower support near $82. This area, which currently sits just above the 50-day MA, may see buying interest near the upper range of a consolidation period that formed on the chart throughout September and October last year.
The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.
As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
Top Wall Street analysts changed their outlook on these top names. For a complete view of all analyst rating changes, including upgrades and downgrades, please see our analyst ratings page.
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The S&P 500 Index today is up +0.26%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up +0.57%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.04%.
Stocks today are moderately higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting 1-week highs. Positive corporate news today is boosting stocks. Super Micro Computer is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it said it believes it can file its delayed 10-K and 10-Q reports in the period available under Nasdaq rules. Also, Ross Stores is up more than +2% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 EPS and raising its 2025 EPS forecast. However, the weakness today in Nvidia and Alphabet is weighing on technology stocks and limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index.
US economic news today was mixed for stocks after the Nov S&P manufacturing and service PMIs increased, but the University of Michigan US Nov consumer sentiment index unexpectedly declined.
The US Nov S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to a 4-month high of 48.8, slightly weaker than expectations of 48.9. The Nov S&P services PMI rose +2.0 to a 2-1/2 year high of 57.0, better than expectations of no change at 55.0.
The University of Michigan US Nov consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell -1.2 to 71.8, weaker than expectations of an increase to 73.9.
Today’s rally in global government bond prices supported equity markets after 10-year German bunds climbed to a 1-month high, providing carryover support to T-note prices. T-notes are also climbing after the Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Trump supports Kevin Warsh as the next Treasury Secretary, who is seen as a bond-friendly pick as Warsh has previously spoken out against high deficits.
Concern about weakness in the Eurozone economy is limiting gains in stocks after the Eurozone Nov S&P PMI unexpectedly contracted and Germany’s Q3 GDP was revised lower. Also, the recent escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict is weighing on stocks.
Of the 90% of companies in the S&P 500 that have released Q3 earnings so far, 75% surpassed the estimates, slightly below the 3-year average. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 have reported an average +8.5% y/y increase in quarterly earnings in Q3, more than double the preseason forecast.
The markets are discounting the chances at 59% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.57%. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell to a 2-1/2 week low and closed down sharply by -3.06%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.68%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are up +2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.416%. Dec T-notes today are slightly higher on carryover support from a rally in European government bonds. T-notes also gained support from a Wall Street Journal report that said President-elect Trump is seen as supporting Kevin Warsh as the next Treasury Secretary. The appointment of Warsh, a former Fed governor known as a hawk who has warned about surging debt burdens, would be seen as a sign of stability and someone who would push back against some of the most extreme policy scenarios Trump has discussed. However, T-notes fell back from their best levels after the US Nov S&P manufacturing and service PMIs increased, signaling economic strength that is hawkish for Fed policy.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-month low of 2.235% and is down -4.3 bp to 2.275%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 3-week low of 4.363% and is down -3.1 bp to 4.412%.
The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.8 to 45.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 46.0. Also, the Eurozone Nov S&P composite PMI fell -1.9 to 48.1, weaker than expectations of no change at 50.0 and the steepest pace of contraction in 10 months.
German Q3 GDP was revised downward to +0.1% q/q and -0.3% y/y from the previously reported +0.2% q/q and -0.2% y/y.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 43% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.
US Stock Movers
Super Micro Computer is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it said it believes it can file its delayed 10-K and 10-Q reports in the period available under Nasdaq rules.
Copart is up more than +8% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.15 billion, stronger than the consensus for $1.10 billion.
The Gap is up more than +6% after reporting a Q3 operating margin of 9.13%, better than the consensus of 8.17%, and raising its 2025 gross margin estimate to about +220 bps from a previous estimate of about +200 bps.
Elastic NV is up more than +17% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 59 cents, well above the consensus of 38 cents, and raising its 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $1.68-$1.72 from a previous estimate of $152.$1.56, stronger than the consensus of $1.53.
Deckers Outdoor is up more than +4% after Needham & Co. initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $218.
Ross Stores is up more than +2% after reporting Q3 EPS of $1.48, stronger than the consensus of $1.40, and raising its 2025 EPS forecast to $6.10-$6.17 from a previous forecast of $6.00-$6.13, the midpoint above the consensus of $6.13.
Nike is up more than +2% after Needham & Co. initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $84.
Viking Therapeutics is up more than +1% after B Riley Securities initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $109.
Pala Alto Networks is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after HSBC downgraded the stock to reduce from hold with a price target of $291.
Intuit is down more than -4% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.55-$2.61, well below the consensus of $3.23.
Nvidia is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the company’s forecast for Q4 revenue exceeded estimates by only $400 million, the second consecutive quarter that revenue didn’t exceed estimates by $1 billion or more, suggesting the recent hyper-growth of the stock is fading.
Alphabet is down more than -1%, adding to Thursday’s -4% loss after the US Justice Department proposed major changes to Google, including a forced sale of its Chrome web browser, saying the browser “fortified” the company’s dominance.
Reddit is down more than -7% after Downdetector reported that users are having problems connecting to Reddit’s website.
Tenet Healthcare is down more than -3% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from a strong buy.
HCA Healthcare is down more than -1% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
Earnings Reports (11/22/2024)
AMMO Inc (POWW), B Riley Financial Inc (RILY), Buckle Inc/The (BKE), Destination XL Group Inc (DXLG), Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV), IES Holdings Inc (IESC), Spire Global Inc (SPIR).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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