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Crude Oil Uptrend Eases and Inflection Point Approaches
Summary:
Crude oil has continued to rise recently with good news from both the supply and demand sides. However, some investors took profits after several technical divergences, so the inflection point for the current rebound is coming.
CLOSED
82.200
Entry Price
76.000
TP
84.500
SL
74.038 +0.681 +0.93%
17.2
Pips
Profit
76.000
TP
82.028
Exit Price
82.200
Entry Price
84.500
SL
Fundamentals
Last week, the U.S. EIA report indicated a weak gasoline demand and unexpectedly increased inventories of crude oil and gasoline. However, over the past period, the market's expectations for summer crude oil demand have been extraordinarily optimistic. Meanwhile, after the expanding war in the Middle East and Ukraine's attack on Russia's oil facilities, as well as the risk of supply disruptions caused by bad weather this summer, oil prices rebounded by almost 10 dollars after hitting the bottom on June 4th during the OPEC+ meeting.
The rebound of crude oil started after being oversold. Later, as the geopolitical risks deteriorated and demand and supply sides improved, a short squeeze emerged. Compared to the falling of other commodities, crude oil showed a stronger trend. However, the optimistic expectation was priced in after the rebound in June, and the rebound is unlikely to continue without a stronger catalyst including escalated geopolitical risks. In addition, investors should take a look at the U.S. manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls data.
Technical Analysis
In the weekly chart, WTI has risen for 3 consecutive weeks. However, the growth was narrower last week and WTI fell from highs, indicating the ease of the short-term rebound. Meanwhile, the previous bullish sentiment cooled and more consolidations are expected this week.
In the 4H chart, WTI extends the upward trend. As investors took profits and exited the market, the previous bullish trend cooled, and WTI oscillated at high levels. Moreover, with the divergence between the upward momentum and the crude oil price, a new inflection point may be approaching. Therefore, we should stop chasing the upward trend for potential retracement risks.
It is recommended to go short when WTI rebounds to 82.2. The target should be near 76.0 and the stop loss can be set at 84.0.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 82.2
Target price: 76.0
Stop loss: 84.5
Support: 80.0/76.0
Resistance: 82.0/84.0
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