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Views from Institutions

France February PMI: Economic Slide Deepens, Services Sector Drags on Overall Performance

Data released on February 21 revealed that France's Composite PMI fell to 44.5 in February, marking a 17-month low. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.5, a nine-month high, while the Services PMI declined to 44.5, also a 17-month low. The private sector economy in France contracted further in February, with the pace of business activity contraction accelerating to its fastest since September of the previous year.

S&P Global Inc.

Japan's February PMI: Services Support Economic Expansion, While the Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums

The February PMI data for Japan indicates an accelerated expansion in private sector economic activity, with the composite PMI reaching a five-month high. While the service sector continued to expand, the manufacturing sector remained weak. Business confidence declined to its lowest level since 2021, reflecting the impact of inflation, labor shortages, and economic uncertainty.

S&P Global Inc.

Australia's February PMI: Private Sector Growth Accelerates, Services Sector Drives the Surge

The latest data on Australia's February PMI reveals an accelerated pace of expansion in private sector business activities, with a further increase in the growth rate of the services sector. However, manufacturing growth remains sluggish. Despite continued growth in the job market, business confidence in future economic prospects has declined, while inflationary pressures persist.

S&P Global Inc.

Federal Reserve's Musalem: Inflation Expectations Warrant Close Monitoring, and the Risk of Stagflation Should Be Considered

Given robust economic expansion, a stable labor market, and inflation persisting above the target, St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%. He indicated that the FOMC may face conflicting dual mandate objectives.

FED

Fed's Goolsbee: PCE Inflation Set to Trail CPI

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said he does not expect the inflation reading the U.S. central bank uses to set its inflation target to be as “sobering” as the previously reported Consumer Price Index figures.

FED

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Faces Upside Risks; Policy Rate to Remain on Hold

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that upside risks to inflation persist, and the Federal Reserve should maintain the federal funds rate target range at the current level of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed is currently exerting moderate restraint on the economy and persistently elevated inflation.

FED

Japanese Inflation Accelerates, Raising Odds of Another Rate Hike

Core inflation accelerated faster than expected in January, while Japan’s service-led recovery continued. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to deliver a 25 bp rate hike in May, though a sharp rise in the JPY complicates the economic outlook.

ING

Why the EU’S New Agri-Focused Vision Matters for the Food Industry

The EU’s vision on Agriculture and Food is clearly farmer-centric. But what's in the document – and equally, what isn't – provides valuable guidance for food manufacturers, traders and retailers about the direction of EU policy towards 2040. With limited guidance on how to achieve emission cuts, the Commission remains open to a range of solutions.

ING

Hawkish ECB comments compound fiscal pressures

Prospects of increased EU military spending are keeping bond yields under upward pressure, this time compounded by hawkish comments from the ECB. Hotter UK CPI figures on Wednesday also pushed in the direction of a more hawkish adjustment of BoE rate cut expectations.

ING

EU Agrees on Another Russian Sanctions Package

The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels

ING

Fiscal Risk Premium to Go Into the Euro

The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before tomorrow's January CPI data release. Elsewhere, we think a new fiscal risk premium could emerge in the euro as national bond markets take the strain of defence spending.

ING

Federal Reserve Jefferson: Progress Toward Achieving the 2% Target Is Slow, and the Path to Inflation Reduction Is Expected to Remain Uneven

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that the current U.S. inflation rate remains somewhat elevated. Progress toward the Fed's 2% target has been slow over the past year, and the path of inflation is expected to remain uneven. The Fed may consider pausing adjustments to the policy interest rate.

FED

Fed's Bostic: Inflation Target on Track for Early 2026, No Rush to Cut Rates Soon

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic indicated that U.S. inflation is projected to return to the target level by early 2026, with the neutral interest rate likely to be between 3% and 3.5%, approaching this range by early next year.

FED

RBNZ Governor Orr: Economic Recovery Bolsters Rate Cut Expectations, NZD Set for Limited Short-Term Volatility

Economic activity in New Zealand is on the rise, with the economic outlook aligning with the inflation target over the medium term, providing confidence for continued interest rate cuts. However, significant spare capacity remains in the economy, and domestic inflationary pressures are expected to continue easing. Employment growth is projected to rebound in the second half of the year as domestic activity picks up.

RBNZ

January FOMC Minutes: Upside Inflation Risks Prompt Consideration of Slowing or Pausing Balance Sheet Runoff

The Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at its January monetary policy meeting, reflecting a cautious assessment of the current economic landscape. Despite market expectations of rate cuts in 2024, officials are seeking further evidence of disinflation toward the Fed's 2% target before providing additional accommodation.

FED

Federal Reserve's Daly: Monetary Policy Needs to Remain Restrictive

On February 18, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive until further progress is made on inflation.

FED

UK CPI Soars to 10-Month High in January; Central Bank Wary of Rate Cuts

The UK inflation rate surged to its highest level in 10 months, driven by rising food and airfare prices, as well as the introduction of value-added tax (VAT) on private school fees. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% YoY in January, exceeding the 2.5% increase recorded in December. This outpaced economists' and the Bank of England's (BoE) expectations of a 2.8% rise, potentially reinforcing the central bank's cautious stance on interest rate cuts aimed at stimulating economic growth.

ONS

RBNZ January Rate Cut: 50 Basis Points to 3.75%—Boosting Recovery Amid Rising Risks

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned of risks from global trade frictions, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. tariff policies. It emphasized its readiness to respond flexibly to potential shocks to ensure medium-term inflation stability and economic resilience.

RBNZ

Canada's January CPI: Inflation Rises Modestly, Adding Uncertainty to Policy Easing Path

Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January marked the sixth consecutive month below the central bank's target. However, the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s core CPI rose to 2.1%, signaling underlying stickiness. The rebound in energy prices offset the historic decline in food prices driven by the sales tax holiday. Meanwhile, the slowdown in housing cost growth remained a key driver of inflation. This highlights the "mixed" nature of the economy, with market expectations suggesting that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates steady in March, potentially initiating a gradual rate cut in the second quarter.

Statistics Canada

4Q24 GDP Grew Much Stronger Than Expected, Supporting BoJ Normalisation Ahead

The Japanese economy continues to grow, faster than the BoJ's forecast. Given the upside risks to higher inflation, the BoJ is likely to raise rates as early as May if the Shunto wage negotation results are as strong as last year.

ING

Potential Restart in Kurdish Oil Exports

Oil prices are under pressure this morning with talk of a potential restart in oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

ING

Don’T Chase the Dollar Correction

The dollar continues to trade on the softer side after Friday's soft US January retail sales questioned the strength of US activity. USD/JPY has been in the vanguard of this dollar correction and Japan's stronger GDP data is helping today.

ING

Fed Governor Waller: Economic Resilience Supports Rate Pause Amid Policy Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that recent economic data support maintaining interest rates steady, with potential rate cuts on the table if inflation follows a similar pattern to 2024. However, he advocated for patience in adjusting policy rates until the inflation outlook becomes clearer, cautioning against policy paralysis due to economic uncertainties.

FED

Fed Governor Bowman: More Progress on Inflation Needed Before Further Rate Cuts

Fed Governor Bowman said that although monetary policy "is in a good place," she would like to see data reflecting more progress on inflation before further rate cuts.

FED

BOE Governor Bailey: Unexpected GDP Figures Are Unlikely to Alter Economic Stagnation

The BOE Governor, Bailey, stated that while there has been a short-term uptick in inflation, there is reason to believe this rise will be transitory, and he emphasized that monetary policy should not overreact to factors that will dissipate over time.

Bank of England

Fed's Harker: Favors Maintaining Interest Rates Steady, Policy Remains Restrictive

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker emphasized the resilience of the U.S. economy, with growth and production continuing to perform robustly. The return of the labor market to a balanced state, with the unemployment rate remaining low. According to Harker, rate cuts should be considered only after a sustained decline in inflation is confirmed.

FED

Reciprocal Tariffs Are on, but VAT Is the Bigger Elephant in the Room

Three weeks into office, President Trump advanced his 'America First' trade agenda by investigating reciprocal tariffs and scrutinising the VAT system, viewing it as a tariff. While countries could lower tariffs to US levels to avoid new tariffs, abolishing the VAT system is unlikely.

ING

THINK Ahead: Europe Needs More than Cupid’s Arrow to Woo investors

Investors are flirting with Europe this Valentine's Day; stock markets are surging. But we know that Europe can be an unreliable life partner, and there's not much love for the continent's economic prospects. Still, ever the romantic, James Smith looks at how love could blossom again ahead of a big politics-fuelled week across the region Authors.

ING

Korea: Jobless Rate Fell Sharply in January While More Policy Support Is Expected

The jobless rate improved mostly in government-sector jobs while import prices rose mostly due to the weak Korean won. We expect more macro policy support in the coming months.

ING

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, RBA and RBNZ Decisions in Focus

After Powell and CPI data, dollar traders turn to Fed minutes.RBA to cut rates by 25bps, focus on forward guidance.RBNZ may opt for a third consecutive 50bps rate cut.UK, Canadian and Japan’s CPI data also in focus.

US: Subdued Start to 2025

Cold weather and the Los Angeles fires certainly played a role in the poor start to the year for consumer spending and manufacturing, but it may be that confusion over tariff timing is also having an impact.

ING

Another Outsized Cut

Inflation seems to be under control and last week’s poor labour market data backs up our view of a second consecutive 50bp cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in February. There is some risk of a downward revision in the rate projections and we retain a bearish bias on the New Zealand dollar.

ING

US January PPI: Soars Beyond Expectations, but Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up

The US January PPI was higher than market expectations. However, the decline in prices of some sub-items related to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) alleviated market concerns about inflation. After the release of the PPI data, US Treasury yields declined, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 33 basis points this year. Although inflation data still shows resilience, the moderate growth of core indicators reduces the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

Census Bureau

Powell: Fed Isn't Rushing to Change Rates

The U.S. economy continues to expand at a robust pace, with inflation easing but still above the target. The labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate steady at 4%, and the demand-supply dynamics in the job market approaching balance. The Fed is not in a rush to adjust policy at this time, opting for a data-driven approach to future adjustments aimed at promoting employment and price stability.

FED

ECB's Nagel: ECB Shouldn't Cut Hastily as Rates Near Neutral

Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and a member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council, emphasized on Wednesday that the ECB should not rush to rate cuts further, especially as rates approach the neutral level.

ECB

ECB Lagarde: Inflation Is Declining, but Global Trade Friction Pose Risks

The euro area economy grew modestly in 2024. While output stagnated in the fourth quarter, it was still 0.9% higher than at the end of 2023.

ECB

The Impact of Trump’S Tariffs on Japan’S Economy and the JPY

The reintroduction of protectionist trade policies by the Trump administration is once again stirring uncertainty in global markets, with Japan emerging as a key player affected by the shifting dynamics.

ACY

AUD/JPY advances to near 95.50 as Japanese Yen faces Trump’s tariff threats

AUD/JPY appreciates due to rising concerns that Japan may face Trump's trade tariffs. The Japanese Yen may regain ground amid the increased likelihood of the BoJ rate hikes again this year. The AUD may face challenges as China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US exports have come into effect.

FXOpen

US Jobs Report Better Than Feared

A respectable outcome for January job creation with fewer than feared downward revisions to historical data have cemented expectations that the Fed will not be cutting rates imminently. There are still lingering concerns about the quality of jobs being added, but an improving trend in jobs creation since late summer means the Fed will hold rates until 3Q

ING

German Industrial Production Disappoints in December, While Exports Show Some Front Loading

Another drop in industrial activity confirms the weak end to the year for the entire German economy.

ING

Gold's Rally Accelerates Amidst Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Gold has kicked off 2025 with an explosive start, consistently reaching new record highs as investors seek safety amidst a volatile economic and geopolitical landscape. With escalating trade tensions, shifting central bank strategies, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy, gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset remains stronger than ever.

ACY

Trump’S Whirlwind Leaves the World Breathless

US President Donald Trump is revelling in his return to the role of 'Dealmaker in Chief' as he pushes ahead with his low tax, light-touch, regulation-led growth agenda. Nonetheless, immigration controls, trade tariffs and government spending cuts pose challenges for the economy while re-shoring and regulatory changes will take time to gain traction.

ING

Rates Spark: Bessent and Payrolls Key as We End a Tumultuous Week

What a week! Tariff threats switched on and off, Bessent laser focussed on the 10yr yield, and next up is payrolls Friday. Meanwhile, a 25bp cut by the Bank of England safely delivered, and a dovish aftertaste, supports three more 25bp cuts this year. The ECB will publish a report on the neutral rate – potentially interesting. Lots to chew on over the weekend.

ING

Gold Monthly: $3,000 Is Now in Sight

Gold is already up more than 9% year-to-date, having hit a series of consecutive record highs along the way. Here's why we think gold at $3,000/oz is within reach.

ING

Rates Remain Unchanged in Poland as We Await Tomorrow’S Press Conference

The National Bank of Poland did not change rates nor its post-meeting press release. The hawkish tone remains firmly in place. We are looking forward to tomorrow’s press conference by the NBP governor but do not expect a shift in his stance.

ING

Rates Spark: Trump Wants a Lower 10yr Yield Too!

The latest Trump administration angle is for rates to be pushed lower through downward pressure on the 10yr yield, through lower inflation and a lower fiscal deficit. Achieve that and we'd agree. But achieve it first. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to cut by 25bp, in line with market pricing. Going forward we see more GBP curve steepening.

ING

Lessons from a Very Short Trade War

Markets are readjusting after Trump’s last-minute deals with Mexico and Canada which delayed tariffs by a month. From now on, markets may well handle tariff threats even more cautiously, but a new layer of unpredictability argues against big dollar depreciation for now. Meanwhile, sterling is enjoying a rare haven status

ING

President Trump Announces Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and the World Holds Its Breath

Late on 1 February, President Trump signed three executive orders, announcing new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. The tariffs include 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on imports from China. Energy products from Canada, crucial for US crude oil imports, are also affected, but 'only' by a 10% tariff.

ING

The Commodities Feed: Retaliatory Tariffs Vs Iranian Sanction Risk

It was a session of two halves for oil yesterday with prices initially weaker on the back of China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US. However, a tougher US stance on Iran saw the market claw back these losses later in the session.

ING

Research In Focus: Trump Sets Clear Tone On Energy Policy

President Trump’s first-day executive orders on energy policy mark a clear shift toward deregulation and fossil fuel support, but their impact on prices and production remains uncertain.

JanusHenderson

The Investment Implications Of The U.S. Trade Tensions

On Saturday, February 1st the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China, and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries.

JPMorgan

Italian Inflation Edged Up in January

We continue to believe that inflation is set to remain under control in Italy

ING

Bank of Japan Hikes Interest Rates by 25BP as Markets Focus on Timing of Next Hike

As the rate cut was widely expected, markets are paying more attention to forward guidance and the latest outlook report.

ING

Hawkish Hold From The Fed To Test Trump’s Patience

The hawkish tilt from officials may in part be a message to President Trump that they won't bow to his will on interest rates.

ING

Austria: Bleak Outlook Amid Political and Economic Crises

Austria’s economic crisis was compounded by a political crisis, potentially worsening the economic situation.

ING

Economic Activity Remains Very Weak in France

After a weak end to 2024, the start of 2025 has not seen any acceleration in economic activity

ING

Why Manufacturing Continues to Weigh on Eurozone growth: It’s the Inventory Cycle, Stupid!

We continue to believe that the winter months will see eurozone GDP stagnating on the back of the ongoing crisis in manufacturing.

ING

Recent Developments in the Global Economy

Donald Trump’s policy thrusts are extended and expanded tax cuts, trade tariffs and immigration controls, which should keep the growth story supported in the near term.

ING

Where is the U.S. dollar headed in 2025?

The increasing divergence in global growth has led to a greater disparity in central bank policies worldwide. As a result, the gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994.

JPMorgan

Anatomy of the Bank Runs in March 2023

Runs have plagued the banking system for centuries and returned to prominence with the bank failures in early 2023. In a traditional run—such as depicted in classic photos from the Great Depression—depositors line up in front of a bank to withdraw their cash. This is not how modern bank runs occur: today, depositors move money from a risky to a safe bank through electronic payment systems.

FED

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France February PMI: Economic Slide Deepens, Services Sector Drags on Overall Performance

Japan's February PMI: Services Support Economic Expansion, While the Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums

Australia's February PMI: Private Sector Growth Accelerates, Services Sector Drives the Surge

Federal Reserve's Musalem: Inflation Expectations Warrant Close Monitoring, and the Risk of Stagflation Should Be Considered

Fed's Goolsbee: PCE Inflation Set to Trail CPI

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Faces Upside Risks; Policy Rate to Remain on Hold

Japanese Inflation Accelerates, Raising Odds of Another Rate Hike

Why the EU’S New Agri-Focused Vision Matters for the Food Industry

Hawkish ECB comments compound fiscal pressures

EU Agrees on Another Russian Sanctions Package

Fiscal Risk Premium to Go Into the Euro

Federal Reserve Jefferson: Progress Toward Achieving the 2% Target Is Slow, and the Path to Inflation Reduction Is Expected to Remain Uneven

Fed's Bostic: Inflation Target on Track for Early 2026, No Rush to Cut Rates Soon

RBNZ Governor Orr: Economic Recovery Bolsters Rate Cut Expectations, NZD Set for Limited Short-Term Volatility

January FOMC Minutes: Upside Inflation Risks Prompt Consideration of Slowing or Pausing Balance Sheet Runoff

Federal Reserve's Daly: Monetary Policy Needs to Remain Restrictive

UK CPI Soars to 10-Month High in January; Central Bank Wary of Rate Cuts

RBNZ January Rate Cut: 50 Basis Points to 3.75%—Boosting Recovery Amid Rising Risks

Canada's January CPI: Inflation Rises Modestly, Adding Uncertainty to Policy Easing Path

4Q24 GDP Grew Much Stronger Than Expected, Supporting BoJ Normalisation Ahead

Potential Restart in Kurdish Oil Exports

Don’T Chase the Dollar Correction

Fed Governor Waller: Economic Resilience Supports Rate Pause Amid Policy Uncertainty

Fed Governor Bowman: More Progress on Inflation Needed Before Further Rate Cuts

BOE Governor Bailey: Unexpected GDP Figures Are Unlikely to Alter Economic Stagnation

Fed's Harker: Favors Maintaining Interest Rates Steady, Policy Remains Restrictive

Reciprocal Tariffs Are on, but VAT Is the Bigger Elephant in the Room

THINK Ahead: Europe Needs More than Cupid’s Arrow to Woo investors

Korea: Jobless Rate Fell Sharply in January While More Policy Support Is Expected

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, RBA and RBNZ Decisions in Focus

US: Subdued Start to 2025

Another Outsized Cut

US January PPI: Soars Beyond Expectations, but Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up

Powell: Fed Isn't Rushing to Change Rates

ECB's Nagel: ECB Shouldn't Cut Hastily as Rates Near Neutral

ECB Lagarde: Inflation Is Declining, but Global Trade Friction Pose Risks

The Impact of Trump’S Tariffs on Japan’S Economy and the JPY

AUD/JPY advances to near 95.50 as Japanese Yen faces Trump’s tariff threats

US Jobs Report Better Than Feared

German Industrial Production Disappoints in December, While Exports Show Some Front Loading

Gold's Rally Accelerates Amidst Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Trump’S Whirlwind Leaves the World Breathless

Rates Spark: Bessent and Payrolls Key as We End a Tumultuous Week

Gold Monthly: $3,000 Is Now in Sight

Rates Remain Unchanged in Poland as We Await Tomorrow’S Press Conference

Rates Spark: Trump Wants a Lower 10yr Yield Too!

Lessons from a Very Short Trade War

President Trump Announces Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and the World Holds Its Breath

The Commodities Feed: Retaliatory Tariffs Vs Iranian Sanction Risk

Research In Focus: Trump Sets Clear Tone On Energy Policy

The Investment Implications Of The U.S. Trade Tensions

Italian Inflation Edged Up in January

Bank of Japan Hikes Interest Rates by 25BP as Markets Focus on Timing of Next Hike

Hawkish Hold From The Fed To Test Trump’s Patience

Austria: Bleak Outlook Amid Political and Economic Crises

Economic Activity Remains Very Weak in France

Why Manufacturing Continues to Weigh on Eurozone growth: It’s the Inventory Cycle, Stupid!

Recent Developments in the Global Economy

Where is the U.S. dollar headed in 2025?

Anatomy of the Bank Runs in March 2023

Risk Disclosure