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1.08080

+0.00075

+ 0.07%

1.08089

1.08080

1.08298

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1.29508

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1.29519

1.29508

1.29603

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69.528

68.418

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Views from Institutions

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On

US PCE inflation up next, but will consumption data matter more?UK budget and CPI in focus after hawkish BoE decision.Euro turns to flash PMIs for bounce as rally runs out of steam.Inflation numbers out of Tokyo and Australia also on the agenda.

Bank of Japan Holds Rates With a Hike Likely in May

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously voted to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda did not indicate when the next rate hike might occur but emphasised the Bank's commitment to its normalisation strategy. Given the strong preliminary Shunto results, inflation and private consumption will be key to watch in the coming months.

ING

Gold Price Surpasses $3,000 Per Ounce for The First Time in History

Just five days ago, we noted that gold was approaching the $3,000 level and suggested that a breakout could occur this month. Ye

FXOpen

Don’t tell Trump: The Eurozone Trade Surplus With the US Widened Slightly in January

Both eurozone exports and imports picked up in January after a sluggish 2024. But with imports rising more significantly, a positive impact on GDP is unlikely. Some tariff war anticipation effects can be seen in the US trade data. The outlook for 2025 is highly uncertain due to the trade war, despite new export orders finally showing signs of bottoming out.

ING

Germany Agrees Historic Fiscal Package and Debt Brake Change

The German parliament has voted in favour of a huge fiscal package and changes to the debt brake. It's historic, and this is what it means for Germany and the wider world.

ING

NZD/USD Analysis: Exchange Rate at 2025 High

As shown on the NZD/USD chart today, the exchange rate is around 0.58250—the highest level for the Kiwi against the US dollar since December 2024.

FXOpen

Bank of England Preview – Quarterly Cuts Amid Elevated Uncertainty

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday 20 March in line with consensus and market pricing.Data has been mixed and amid elevated uncertainty, this warrants a continued signalling of only a gradual approach to monetary policy easing.We expect the reaction in EUR/GBP to be rather muted with risks tilted to the topside.

Danske Bank

Bank of England to Hold Rates Against Backdrop of Sticky Inflation

There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on hold this Thursday, ahead of the next rate cut in May.

ING

Federal Reserve preview: No imminent pressure, but downside growth risks point to 2H rate cuts

After 100bp of interest rate cuts in late 2024, Chair Powell suggests that the Fed aren’t in a hurry to ease policy further and a no change outcome is widely expected on 19 March. But President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are hurting growth prospects and will likely force the central bank’s hand in the second half of 2025.

ING

Gold Tops $3,000/Oz for the First Time

Gold just topped $3,000/oz for the first time ever

ING

National Bank of Poland Rates on Hold and a Hawkish Press Conference Expected

The Monetary Policy Council did not change the interest rates, while the statement is in our driven by somewhat unrealistic inflation fears. The statement indicates that Thursday's press conference will also maintain a hawkish tone.

ING

The Commodities Feed: Big Drop in US Gasoline Stocks

Oil prices bounced higher yesterday on a constructive weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration

ING

ECB President Lagarde: Economic Growth Faces Challenges Amid Rising Global Trade Uncertainty

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted that global economic growth is slowing, with the Euro area facing intensified trade uncertainties, weak domestic demand, and declining corporate investment. Although inflation has receded, the tight labor market and strong wage growth could still push core prices higher. Should the economic slowdown persist, rate cuts could become an option.

ECB

January Growth Indicates German Industry May Have Hit Bottom

Finally some good industrial news out of Germany as industrial production rebounded in January. Another data point confirming the current bottoming out of the industrial slump but not yet a sign of any significant turnaround

ING

Germany’S Showdown on Historic Fiscal Stimulus is Approaching

The CDU/CSU and SPD have until 25 March to get their fiscal stimulus package and the necessary amendments to the debt brake approved by parliament. As the deadline approaches, stumbling blocks have begun to emerge

ING

Bank of Canada Preview: Another Cut as Tariffs Cloud Outlook

We expect a 25bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada on 12 March, taking the policy rate to 2.75%, in line with market pricing. Despite strong fourth-quarter GDP growth, the US-Canada trade spat is fuelling recession concerns and we currently forecast another cut in the second quarter. We also expect the Canadian dollar to face more downside risks this spring

ING

Rates Spark: Big Divergence Trade Ongoing

Germany's fiscal plans have hit first stumbling blocks, but markets assume the change in the German fiscal attitude sticks. The front end of the EUR curve is held up by tariff uncertainty, but the path is to a 3% handle for 10y Bunds. US Treasuries are not reacting to this, but to elevated domestic angst on a complex policy prescription laced with uncertainty

ING

A Volatile World Warrants EUR Steepeners

The euro swap curve is still exceptionally flat by historical standards and forwards don’t price any moves from here. With growth holding up, underpriced structural inflation risks and EU spending plan discussions, we see potential for more bear steepening of the 5s10s curve. If recession risks intensify, then we'd see a bull steepening

ING

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Risks Remain Elevated, Rate Cuts Likely to Be "Far Off"

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that the Fed may continue holding the policy rate at its current level "for some time", as inflation continues to face important upside risks. The labor market has largely rebalanced, and wage growth is not a primary driver of inflationary pressures.

FED

Fed Powell: Maintaining the Status Quo, Pausing Rate Cuts

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Trump administration's tariff initiatives could potentially elevate inflation, although the extent of their impact remains to be seen. The Fed should adopt a wait-and-see approach, refraining from premature interest rate cuts until more comprehensive data becomes available. This underscores the Fed's cautious stance amidst the current intricate economic landscape, concurrently providing the market with crucial insights into the trajectory of future monetary policy.

FED

Resilience of US Job Creation Set to be Tested

The US economy added 151k jobs in February, but with DOGE’s influence increasingly being felt on the economy the risk is that we start to see renewed softness in the months ahead.

ING

Fed Waller: No Need for Rate Cut in March, but There Could Be Room for 2-3 Adjustments within the Year

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently indicated that he would not support a rate cut in March, but still anticipates the possibility of two to three rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve requires additional economic data to inform its policy decisions, particularly given the recent deceleration in economic growth and the uncertain trajectory of inflation. Premature adjustments to monetary policy could pose risks.

FED

Eurozone February PMI: Construction Sector Decline Intensifies, New Orders Continue to Shrink

The latest Eurozone February PMI data reveals the sharpest contraction in eurozone construction sector for three months. New orders continue to contract, although business confidence has shown some improvement, remaining largely pessimistic overall. Despite a slight easing of cost pressures, weak market demand and labor shortages remain significant challenges to the sector's recovery.

S&P Global Inc.

U.S. February PMI: Services Expansion Accelerates, with Inflation Pressures Keeping Rising

The recently released U.S. PMI data for February indicates continued expansion in the services sector. While the business activity index experienced a slight decrease, it remains within the growth territory. New orders and employment indices have rebounded, and inflationary pressures have intensified. Supplier deliveries have slowed, and corporate confidence in future growth is influenced by tariffs and government policies.

ISM

Another ECB Rate Cut and Then What?

The European Central Bank looks set to cut interest rates again at next week's meeting. But the more exciting debate will be on what's next.

ING

U.S. January PCE: Inflation and Employment Face New Challenges

The Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment is showing signs of tension, as persistent price pressures and aggressive policy adjustments, including new import tariffs, are having a negative impact on consumer spending.

BEA

German Inflation Remains Unchanged in February

German inflation remained unchanged in February. Together with French and Italian inflation data, German inflation numbers should pave the way for a rate cut next week by the European Central Bank .

ING

ECB's Stournaras: As Growth Risks Intensify, Keep Easing Policy on Track

Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras argued that it is premature to discuss pausing interest rate cuts, especially given the current economic pressures and the gradual easing of price pressures.

ECB

Fed's Barkin: Solid Growth and Inflation Decline, but Caution Remains

Despite a substantial decline in inflation, it has yet to fully reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As a result, monetary policy must maintain a degree of restrictiveness to ensure that inflation does not re-emerge.

FED

ECB's Schnabel: Greater Caution Is Needed in Adjusting Policy

Global market expectations for long-term interest rates have fundamentally shifted, and central banks need to adapt to the new inflationary environment and respond with appropriate policy responses.

ECB

Markets Cautious on Tariff Risk

Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence figures today could actually send the dollar a bit weaker. In the eurozone, negotiated wage growth figures should not be a game-changer for the ECB.

ING

BTC/USD Analysis: Why Bitcoin’s Price Dropped Below $90k

The BTC/USD chart shows Bitcoin dipping below $89K today—the first time since November 2024, when the leading cryptocurrency sur

FXOpen

Rates Spark: Markets Cautious in Anticipation of German Spending

The German election results did little to move rates on Monday. However, under geopolitical pressure, politicians are exploring funding options for a military build-up, which validates the market's cautious approach amid looming supply concerns

ING

The Bank of Korea Lowers Rates, with Odds Favoring More Cuts

The Bank of Korea’s rate cut decision was unanimous, but the timing of future moves is uncertain amid turmoil at home and abroad. The GDP outlook for 2025 was revised down to 1.5%, with CPI unchanged at 1.9%

ING

US Attempts to Curb China’S Dominance in Shipping, but Actions Could Backfire

Unlike previous US trade memoranda, the proposed action to tackle China’s dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding is different. It could lift port call fees or cause inefficiencies in supply lines, affecting US importers, exporters, and consumers.

ING

BOE's Dhingra: Caution Needed on Consumption Weakness, Supports Easing Policy Constraints

The UK economy is experiencing sluggish growth, with a cooling labor market. Although inflation has declined, it remains above the target level. Swati Dhingra, member of the monetary policy committee at the Bank of England (BOE), has elaborated on her decision to call for interest rates to be slashed, saying taking a "gradual" approach would still leave monetary policy as a drag on the economy this year.

Bank of England

Euro Welcomes German Election Result

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without any smaller third party. There’s a lot on the table for markets this week, and we expect plenty of noise in FX.

ING

Germany’s coalition options down to one after a long election night

Germany is heading towards another revival of the grand coalition as its political landscape grows increasingly fragmented.

ING

The Commodities Feed: Sentiment Sours

Oil prices are under increasing downward pressure as sentiment sours. Friday’s sell-off in US equities only added to the weakness in energy markets.

ING

EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February

The EUR/USD chart shows the euro rising above its previous February peak of 1.05155, set on the 14th. On one hand, the euro’s st

FXOpen

National Bank of Hungary Preview: Inflation Takes the Lead

We believe interest rates will remain unchanged at the next Monetary Council meeting, the final one under Governor György Matolcsy. This time, macroeconomic factors will play a key role in the decision-making process due to the deteriorating inflation outlook.

ING

Week Ahead – German Elections and US PCE Inflation on Investors’ Radar

Germany goes to the polls, but far-right AfD unlikely to form government.German CPI data might be bigger driver for the Euro.US inflation also in the spotlight as PCE report awaited.CPI releases in Australia and Japan, Canadian GDP also on tap.

Mood Among Czech Consumers Slides as Industry Tanks

The mood among Czech consumers slid in February, mostly due to worries about future economic developments, perhaps invigorated by recent geopolitical turmoil. Confidence in industry remains subdued despite a trend improvement since February last year. Spenders can still drive the rebound, but industry’s underperformance is a threat.

ING

Eurozone PMI Shows Little Relief from Stagnation Just yet

The PMI indicates stabilising economic activity, but declining new orders and hiring reveal a weak short-term outlook despite stock market optimism on Europe.

ING

Eurozone February PMI: Slight Economic Growth with Slowing Manufacturing Decline

Data released on February 21 showed that the Eurozone Composite PMI for February stood at 50.2, unchanged from January, indicating that the overall economic growth momentum remained stable. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3, a 9-month high, while the Services PMI fell to 50.7, a 3-month low. Despite the slowing decline in manufacturing, weak demand and falling employment still pose challenges to economic recovery.

S&P Global Inc.

Germany's February PMI: Economic Growth Rebounds as Manufacturing Drag Eases

HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 51.0 (Jan: 50.5), 9-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 46.1 (Jan: 45.0), 24-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 52.2 (Jan: 52.5), 2-month low.

S&P Global Inc.

France February PMI: Economic Slide Deepens, Services Sector Drags on Overall Performance

Data released on February 21 revealed that France's Composite PMI fell to 44.5 in February, marking a 17-month low. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.5, a nine-month high, while the Services PMI declined to 44.5, also a 17-month low. The private sector economy in France contracted further in February, with the pace of business activity contraction accelerating to its fastest since September of the previous year.

S&P Global Inc.

Japan's February PMI: Services Support Economic Expansion, While the Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums

The February PMI data for Japan indicates an accelerated expansion in private sector economic activity, with the composite PMI reaching a five-month high. While the service sector continued to expand, the manufacturing sector remained weak. Business confidence declined to its lowest level since 2021, reflecting the impact of inflation, labor shortages, and economic uncertainty.

S&P Global Inc.

Australia's February PMI: Private Sector Growth Accelerates, Services Sector Drives the Surge

The latest data on Australia's February PMI reveals an accelerated pace of expansion in private sector business activities, with a further increase in the growth rate of the services sector. However, manufacturing growth remains sluggish. Despite continued growth in the job market, business confidence in future economic prospects has declined, while inflationary pressures persist.

S&P Global Inc.

Federal Reserve's Musalem: Inflation Expectations Warrant Close Monitoring, and the Risk of Stagflation Should Be Considered

Given robust economic expansion, a stable labor market, and inflation persisting above the target, St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%. He indicated that the FOMC may face conflicting dual mandate objectives.

FED

Fed's Goolsbee: PCE Inflation Set to Trail CPI

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said he does not expect the inflation reading the U.S. central bank uses to set its inflation target to be as “sobering” as the previously reported Consumer Price Index figures.

FED

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Faces Upside Risks; Policy Rate to Remain on Hold

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that upside risks to inflation persist, and the Federal Reserve should maintain the federal funds rate target range at the current level of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed is currently exerting moderate restraint on the economy and persistently elevated inflation.

FED

Japanese Inflation Accelerates, Raising Odds of Another Rate Hike

Core inflation accelerated faster than expected in January, while Japan’s service-led recovery continued. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to deliver a 25 bp rate hike in May, though a sharp rise in the JPY complicates the economic outlook.

ING

Why the EU’S New Agri-Focused Vision Matters for the Food Industry

The EU’s vision on Agriculture and Food is clearly farmer-centric. But what's in the document – and equally, what isn't – provides valuable guidance for food manufacturers, traders and retailers about the direction of EU policy towards 2040. With limited guidance on how to achieve emission cuts, the Commission remains open to a range of solutions.

ING

Hawkish ECB comments compound fiscal pressures

Prospects of increased EU military spending are keeping bond yields under upward pressure, this time compounded by hawkish comments from the ECB. Hotter UK CPI figures on Wednesday also pushed in the direction of a more hawkish adjustment of BoE rate cut expectations.

ING

EU Agrees on Another Russian Sanctions Package

The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels

ING

Fiscal Risk Premium to Go Into the Euro

The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before tomorrow's January CPI data release. Elsewhere, we think a new fiscal risk premium could emerge in the euro as national bond markets take the strain of defence spending.

ING

Federal Reserve Jefferson: Progress Toward Achieving the 2% Target Is Slow, and the Path to Inflation Reduction Is Expected to Remain Uneven

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that the current U.S. inflation rate remains somewhat elevated. Progress toward the Fed's 2% target has been slow over the past year, and the path of inflation is expected to remain uneven. The Fed may consider pausing adjustments to the policy interest rate.

FED

Fed's Bostic: Inflation Target on Track for Early 2026, No Rush to Cut Rates Soon

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic indicated that U.S. inflation is projected to return to the target level by early 2026, with the neutral interest rate likely to be between 3% and 3.5%, approaching this range by early next year.

FED

RBNZ Governor Orr: Economic Recovery Bolsters Rate Cut Expectations, NZD Set for Limited Short-Term Volatility

Economic activity in New Zealand is on the rise, with the economic outlook aligning with the inflation target over the medium term, providing confidence for continued interest rate cuts. However, significant spare capacity remains in the economy, and domestic inflationary pressures are expected to continue easing. Employment growth is projected to rebound in the second half of the year as domestic activity picks up.

RBNZ

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Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On

Bank of Japan Holds Rates With a Hike Likely in May

Gold Price Surpasses $3,000 Per Ounce for The First Time in History

Don’t tell Trump: The Eurozone Trade Surplus With the US Widened Slightly in January

Germany Agrees Historic Fiscal Package and Debt Brake Change

NZD/USD Analysis: Exchange Rate at 2025 High

Bank of England Preview – Quarterly Cuts Amid Elevated Uncertainty

Bank of England to Hold Rates Against Backdrop of Sticky Inflation

Federal Reserve preview: No imminent pressure, but downside growth risks point to 2H rate cuts

Gold Tops $3,000/Oz for the First Time

National Bank of Poland Rates on Hold and a Hawkish Press Conference Expected

The Commodities Feed: Big Drop in US Gasoline Stocks

ECB President Lagarde: Economic Growth Faces Challenges Amid Rising Global Trade Uncertainty

January Growth Indicates German Industry May Have Hit Bottom

Germany’S Showdown on Historic Fiscal Stimulus is Approaching

Bank of Canada Preview: Another Cut as Tariffs Cloud Outlook

Rates Spark: Big Divergence Trade Ongoing

A Volatile World Warrants EUR Steepeners

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Risks Remain Elevated, Rate Cuts Likely to Be "Far Off"

Fed Powell: Maintaining the Status Quo, Pausing Rate Cuts

Resilience of US Job Creation Set to be Tested

Fed Waller: No Need for Rate Cut in March, but There Could Be Room for 2-3 Adjustments within the Year

Eurozone February PMI: Construction Sector Decline Intensifies, New Orders Continue to Shrink

U.S. February PMI: Services Expansion Accelerates, with Inflation Pressures Keeping Rising

Another ECB Rate Cut and Then What?

U.S. January PCE: Inflation and Employment Face New Challenges

German Inflation Remains Unchanged in February

ECB's Stournaras: As Growth Risks Intensify, Keep Easing Policy on Track

Fed's Barkin: Solid Growth and Inflation Decline, but Caution Remains

ECB's Schnabel: Greater Caution Is Needed in Adjusting Policy

Markets Cautious on Tariff Risk

BTC/USD Analysis: Why Bitcoin’s Price Dropped Below $90k

Rates Spark: Markets Cautious in Anticipation of German Spending

The Bank of Korea Lowers Rates, with Odds Favoring More Cuts

US Attempts to Curb China’S Dominance in Shipping, but Actions Could Backfire

BOE's Dhingra: Caution Needed on Consumption Weakness, Supports Easing Policy Constraints

Euro Welcomes German Election Result

Germany’s coalition options down to one after a long election night

The Commodities Feed: Sentiment Sours

EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February

National Bank of Hungary Preview: Inflation Takes the Lead

Week Ahead – German Elections and US PCE Inflation on Investors’ Radar

Mood Among Czech Consumers Slides as Industry Tanks

Eurozone PMI Shows Little Relief from Stagnation Just yet

Eurozone February PMI: Slight Economic Growth with Slowing Manufacturing Decline

Germany's February PMI: Economic Growth Rebounds as Manufacturing Drag Eases

France February PMI: Economic Slide Deepens, Services Sector Drags on Overall Performance

Japan's February PMI: Services Support Economic Expansion, While the Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums

Australia's February PMI: Private Sector Growth Accelerates, Services Sector Drives the Surge

Federal Reserve's Musalem: Inflation Expectations Warrant Close Monitoring, and the Risk of Stagflation Should Be Considered

Fed's Goolsbee: PCE Inflation Set to Trail CPI

Fed Governor Kugler: Inflation Faces Upside Risks; Policy Rate to Remain on Hold

Japanese Inflation Accelerates, Raising Odds of Another Rate Hike

Why the EU’S New Agri-Focused Vision Matters for the Food Industry

Hawkish ECB comments compound fiscal pressures

EU Agrees on Another Russian Sanctions Package

Fiscal Risk Premium to Go Into the Euro

Federal Reserve Jefferson: Progress Toward Achieving the 2% Target Is Slow, and the Path to Inflation Reduction Is Expected to Remain Uneven

Fed's Bostic: Inflation Target on Track for Early 2026, No Rush to Cut Rates Soon

RBNZ Governor Orr: Economic Recovery Bolsters Rate Cut Expectations, NZD Set for Limited Short-Term Volatility

Risk Disclosure