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Canada’s labour market bucked its weakening trend in September, adding 47k new jobs.
Canada’s labour market bucked its weakening trend in September, adding 47k new jobs. Adding to the good news, the gains were entirely full-time (+112k), and in the private sector (+61k). Meanwhile part-time positions gave back their August gains (-65k).
Job gains were strong enough to push the unemployment rate down a tenth to 6.5%, the first improvement since January. Labour force growth was modest in September (+16k), as the participation rate fell two tenths to 64.9%.
Looking across sectors, job gains were concentrated in information, culture and recreation (+22k, 2.6%), wholesale and retail trade (+22k, 0.8%) and professional, scientific and technical services (+21k, 1.1%).
The unemployment rate ticked down in September, driven entirely by youth. The unemployment rate for those aged 15-24 fell a full percentage point to 13.5%, but is still 2.8 percentage points higher than a year ago. Perhaps more telling is that the share of the core working age population (25-54 years) with a job continued to tick down. It has fallen 1.6 percentage points relative to the start of 2023.
In one gray cloud in the report, total hours worked fell again in September (-0.4% month-on-month), and are up 1.2% over the past year. Wage growth cooled to 4.6% year-on-year in September.
A move down in Canada’s unemployment rate is good news, and the two year bond yield is up a few tenths on the news. However, September’s jobs report does not change the picture of a labour market that has cooled notably since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Data rarely moves in a straight line, and we would need to see a few more months of strength before we declare an improving trend.
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision is in less than two weeks, and another cut is widely expected. Some market participants are leaning towards a larger half point move after the Fed’s larger cut, but September’s job data will likely pare those bets back a bit. We look for another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 23rd.
The USD/CAD pair trades near its highest level since August 6 during the Asian session on Tuesday, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 1.3800 round-figure mark.
The US Dollar (USD) stands tall near a two-month high amid expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November. This assists the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady above the 4% mark and continues to offer some support to the buck, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the USD/CAD pair higher for the tenth straight day.
Meanwhile, a report on Monday suggested that Israel will not attack Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. Moreover, a fall in China's oil imports for the fifth straight month raised concerns about weak demand in the world's top importer. Adding to this, OPEC lowered its 2024 and 2025 global oil demand forecasts. This leads to a further decline in Crude Oil prices, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, overshadow Friday's upbeat Canadian jobs data, which forced investors to pare bets for a larger rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Traders now look forward to the release of the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures, due later during the North American session. This, along with the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Fedspeak, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) witnessed an intraday pullback from over a one-week high touched on Monday and finally settled in the red, snapping a two-day winning streak amid broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength. Investors have priced out the possibility of another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. This kept the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which pushed the buck to over a two-month top and drove flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
Adding to this, geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East assisted the safe-haven precious metal to stall its intraday slide and hold steady above the $2,640 level during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The US Dollar shot to its highest level since August 8 on Monday amid growing acceptance of a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and bets for a regular 25 basis points interest rate cut in November.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the monetary policy is still restrictive and suggested that further modest interest rate cuts could be appropriate as the job market remains strong.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy is on solid footing, may not be slowing as much as desired, and that the central bank should proceed with more caution on rate cuts than at the September meeting.
The lack of numerical details for China's fiscal stimulus, along with signs of economic softness in the biggest bullion consumer, prompted some intraday selling around the Gold price on the first day of a new week.
Israel vowed a forceful response to Hezbollah’s drone attack on its army base on Sunday, which killed four soldiers and severely wounded seven others, raising the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
This comes amid growing concern that Israel may mount an offensive against Iranian assets and a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, which offers some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Traders now look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with Fedspeak, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD later during the North American session.
From a technical perspective, the overnight swing high, around the $2,666-2,667 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the Gold price back towards the all-time peak, around the $2,685-2,686 region touched in September. This is closely followed by the $2,700 round-figure mark, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of a well-established multi-month-old uptrend.
On the flip side, weakness below the $2,632-2,630 immediate support is likely to attract some buyers and remain limited near the $2,600 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the said handle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $2,560 zone. The corrective slide could extend further towards the $2,535-2,530 region en route to the $2,500 psychological mark.
Germany is suffering a mild recession and output across the whole of 2024 will be flat, according to a Bloomberg survey — underscoring the malaise in Europe’s largest economy.
Analysts in the poll see gross domestic product shrinking 0.1% in the third quarter, following a surprise contraction of that magnitude in the second. A month ago, they still forecast stagnation between July and September.
Their full-year projection also marks a downward revision from the 0.1% expansion previously envisioned. But it’s a tad more optimistic than the government, which last week slashed its forecast to a contraction of 0.2%.
Germany’s struggles are once again in the spotlight, with retrenchment by some of its top industrial firms adding to the gloom. The weakness is largely down to the cutoff of Russian energy supplies, disappointing export demand from China, problems among carmakers and a dearth of skilled workers.
A contraction in 2024 would be only the second time GDP declined in consecutive years since West and East Germany were reunified in 1990. In 2023, Germany was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink, by 0.3%.
“Industry remains the Achilles heel,” said Erik-Jan van Harn, an analyst at Rabobank. “There’s no clear catalyst for a turnaround. A bottoming out is the best case scenario for now.”
For 2025, analysts expect 0.8% growth compared with 1% before. The government’s new forecasts envisage 1.1%.
Germany’s “economic weakness likely continued in the second half of 2024, before growth momentum gradually increases again next year,” the Economy Ministry said Monday in a report, adding that a “technical recession” probably occurred in the second and third quarters.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised on Monday to scrap regulation that holds back economic growth as he hosted some of the world's biggest businesses at a conference designed to woo international investors.
Starmer's Labour Party came to power in July, pledging to end years of political instability and win back the faith of private investors to reinvigorate the UK's run-down infrastructure and public services.
But many investors remain cautious about Britain, complaining that it takes too long to build anything.
The new government, which has had a rocky start, told investors it would streamline planning to accelerate building, overhaul regulation to promote innovation and deliver cheap, clean energy.
In an attempt to outshine rival governments competing for investment, it will later host executives from the world's biggest banks, investment groups and insurers at St Paul's Cathedral with King Charles and a performance by Elton John.
"We are determined to lead the way on growth," Starmer told the summit at London's Guildhall. "Determined to get Britain building. Determined to get our economy moving."
Britain had been one of the most popular destinations for international investment until the 2016 vote to leave the European Union triggered uncertainty over its future trading rules, and a lengthy period of political instability.
According to Reuters calculations, the value of foreign direct investment inflows as a percentage of Britain's economy hit a nine-year low of 2.7% in the second quarter of 2024.
The government, bound by fiscal rules that limit its capacity to borrow, is now hoping to use the summit to attract tens of billions of pounds of investment and show it can once again become a top destination for private capital.
It defended early moves to improve workers' rights, saying more secure employment would create a more sustainable economy, and it laid out its plans for an industrial strategy that would encompass skills, R&D, energy supply, planning and funding.
Many companies had previously criticised Britain's lack of an overarching plan.
Britain also announced plans to ease bank ring-fencing rules and remove redundant reporting requirements for firms.
Regulators, including the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), would be reviewed, it said.
"We will make sure that every regulator in this country takes growth as seriously as this room does," Starmer said.
The anti-trust regulator, which gained greater prominence when Britain left the EU in 2020, made headlines last year when it blocked Microsoft's US$69 billion (RM296.33 billion) acquisition of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard.
Following a backlash from the two companies, it tore up its own rule book to reopen and then approve the case after Microsoft came back with changes.
David Ricks, head of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, which announced a £279 million (RM1.56 billion)investment, welcomed the new regulatory approach, telling BBC Radio that with Britain outside the EU it needed "to be quite different to make it interesting".
But regulation is not investors' only concern.
Markets are retreating from bullish bets on Britain as concerns grow about the debt-laden public finances and possible tax hikes in an Oct 30 budget.
After announcing it had inherited a £22 billion black hole in the public finances, Labour's first budget — and who it will target to raise money — will be crucial to the mood.
Business minister Jonathan Reynolds appeared to suggest on Sunday the government could raise national insurance contributions for employers.
Starmer said the budget would have the "tough love of prudence".
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