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ECB meets on Thursday, markets expect a 25bps rate cut.Lots of reasons for a pause, including the lack of staff projections.
The ECB will hold its penultimate meeting for 2024 on Thursday, just five weeks after the September gathering that produced another rate cut. It has been an eventful period for the markets with the Fed announcing a 50bps rate cut and the conflict in the Middle East moving up a notch.
In the meantime, the eurozone data continued to worsen. Most notably, the September PMI surveys, predominantly the manufacturing ones, confirmed the rather protracted soft patch experienced by the euro area economy, particularly in Germany, and the September headline CPI figure dropped below 2% for the first time since July 2021.
These developments, i.e. the aggressive Fed rate cut, the weak growth outlook and satisfaction from the euro area inflation prints, allowed most ECB members to move from vague comments about the need for further rate cuts to openly state their preference for an October move. The difference between the recently published minutes of the September meeting and the ECB members’ most recent rhetoric is quite telling.
This shift is also reflected in market expectations. The probability of an October 25bps cut was around 30% after the September gathering, but it quickly rose to fully price in this rate move. It is currently hovering around 99%, which, in the eyes of the market, makes this week’s rate cut a done deal.
Frankly, the September CPI report was not surprising, as President Lagarde had already announced that the ECB expects a weak print, with inflation rising again towards the end of 2024. Interestingly, there are no staff projections this time around, and considering the fact that the meeting comes only five weeks after the September one, some ECB members might be inclined to wait until December. Additionally, Thursday’s gathering will take place in Ljubljana, Slovenia and the ECB usually, but not always, prefers to announce rate changes when the meeting is hosted at the ECB tower in Frankfurt.
This extra time until the December gathering is probably important for other reasons. The ECB could examine any likely Fed announcements on November 7, where the outlook is equally complicated following the recent strong jobs data, and digest the outcome of the US presidential election.
But the most important factor for pausing on Thursday might be that in September the ECB adjusted its rates profile. The deposit rate was cut by 25bps to 3.5%, but the gap with the main ECB rate dropped to 15bps from 50bps, with the latter dropping to 3.65% from 4.25% before the September gathering.
Despite the plethora of reasons for a pause, the ECB has to take tough decisions based on the incoming data and the overall economic outlook. It is obvious that the eurozone economy is barely growing with Germany officially expected to contract for a second year running, and with no help expected at this stage from China. Therefore, another 25bps rate cut could only prove beneficial for the eurozone economy.
At the end of the day, an agreement could provide a solution. The doves might begrudgingly accept a pause on Thursday in exchange for a strong pre-commitment for a 25bps rate cut in December, possibly more if needed.
Despite the recent upleg in euro/pound, mostly on the back of the early October comments from Governor Bailey for a more aggressive BoE stance in terms of the rate cuts, the downward trend from the November 2023 high remains in place.
A dovish rate cut on Thursday will probably allow euro bears to overcome some key support levels and test again the 0.8304 level. On the flip side, a surprising rate pause could cause a sizeable upleg in euro/pound with the 0.8500 area looking like a plausible target.
Global public debt is set to reach US$100 trillion (RM430.69 trillion) or 93% of global gross domestic product by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor — an overview of global public finance developments — the IMF said it expects debt to approach 100% of GDP by 2030 and warns that governments will need to make tough decisions to stabilise borrowing.
Debt is tipped to increase in the US, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa and UK, according to the IMF report, which urges governments to rein in debt.
“Waiting is risky: country experiences show that high debt can trigger adverse market reactions and constrains room for budgetary manoeuvre in the face of negative shocks,” it said.
With little political appetite to cut spending amid pressures to fund cleaner energy, support ageing populations and bolster security, the “risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside,” the IMF said.
Countries where debt is not projected to stabilise make up over half of global debt and about two-thirds of global GDP.
Using a “debt-at-risk” framework, the IMF found that the level of future debt in an extreme adverse scenario could reach 115% of GDP in three years, almost 20 percentage points higher than in the baseline projections.
“This is because high debt levels today amplify the effects of weaker growth or tighter financial conditions and higher spreads on future debt levels,” it said.
The debt-at-risk metric for advanced economies has slipped from pandemic peaks and is now estimated at 134% of GDP, but it has risen to 88% for emerging market and developing economies.
While slowing inflation and falling interest rates are offering governments a window to get their fiscal houses in order, there’s little sign of any urgency to do so, the IMF said.
“Current fiscal adjustment plans fall far short of what is needed to ensure that debt is stabilised (or reduced) with high probability,” it said.
Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips from Nvidia Corp and other American companies on a country-specific basis, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would limit some nations’ AI capabilities.
The new approach would set a ceiling on export licences for certain countries in the interest of national security, according to the people, who described the private discussions on condition of anonymity. Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centres and the deep pockets to fund them, the people said.
Deliberations are in early stages and remain fluid, the people said, noting that the idea has gained traction in recent weeks. The policy would build on a new framework to ease the licensing process for AI chip shipments to data centres in places like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Commerce Department officials unveiled those regulations last month and said there are more rules coming.
The agency’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which oversees export controls, declined to comment. Nvidia, the market leader for AI chips, also declined to comment, as did Advanced Micro Devices Inc. A representative of Intel Corp, which also makes such processors, didn’t respond to a request for comment.
A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council (NSC) declined to comment on the talks but pointed to a recent joint statement by the US and UAE on artificial intelligence. In it, the two countries acknowledged the “tremendous potential of AI for good”, as well as the “challenges and risks of this emerging technology and the vital importance of safeguards”.
Setting country-based caps would tighten restrictions that originally targeted China’s ambitions in AI, as Washington considers the security risks of AI development around the world. Already, the Biden administration has restricted AI chip shipments by companies like Nvidia and AMD to more than 40 countries across the Middle East, Africa and Asia over fears their products could be diverted to China.
At the same time, some US officials have come to view semiconductor export licences, particularly for Nvidia chips, as a point of leverage to achieve broader diplomatic goals. That could include asking key companies to reduce ties with China to gain access to US technology — but the concerns extend beyond Beijing.
“We will have to have a conversation with countries around the world about how they plan to use these capabilities,” Tarun Chhabra, a senior director of technology at the National Security Council, said at a forum in June without naming specific nations. “If you are talking about countries that have a really robust internal surveillance apparatus, then we have to think about: How exactly will they use these capabilities to supercharge that kind of surveillance, and what will that look like?”
There’s also the question of how global AI development could affect American intelligence operations, said Maher Bitar, another NSC official. “What are the risks not just on human rights grounds, but also in terms of the security and the counterintelligence risks to our personnel around the world?” Bitar said at the same event.
It’s unclear how leading AI chipmakers would react to additional US restrictions. When the Biden administration first issued sweeping chip regulations for China, Nvidia redesigned its AI offerings to ensure it can keep selling into that market.
If the administration moves forward with country-based caps, it may prove difficult to deliver a comprehensive new policy in the final months of President Joe Biden’s term. Such rules could be challenging to enforce and would be a major test of US diplomatic relationships.
Governments around the world are in a quest for so-called sovereign AI — the ability to build and run their own AI systems — and that pursuit has become a key driver of demand for advanced processors, according to Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang. Nvidia’s chips are the gold standard for data-centre operators, making the company the world’s most valuable chipmaker and the top beneficiary of the AI boom.
China, meanwhile, is working to develop its own advanced semiconductors, though they still trail the best American chips. Still, there’s concern among US officials that if Huawei Technologies Co or another foreign maker one day offers a viable alternative to Nvidia chips — presumably with fewer strings attached — that could weaken the US ability to shape the global AI landscape.
Some US officials argue that’s only a distant possibility, and that the Washington should adopt a more restrictive approach to global AI chip exports given its current negotiating position. Others warn against making it too difficult for other countries to buy American technology, in the event China gains ground and captures those customers.
While officials have debated the best approach, they have slowed high-volume AI chip licence approvals to the Middle East and elsewhere. But there are signs things could get moving soon: Under the new rules for shipments to data centres, US officials will vet and preapprove specific customers based on security commitments from both the companies and their national governments, paving the way for easier licensing down the road.
Malaysia’s consumer and construction stocks are set to benefit, as the government seeks to boost wages and sustain economic growth with its spending plan for next year.
Malaysia Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who doubles as the finance minister, will likely deliver measures to lower the cost of living and several infrastructure projects when he unveils the country’s budget on Friday. Analysts also expect details of plans to remove blanket fuel subsidies and potentially new levies, including a sugar-sweetened beverage tax, to fund an expansionary budget after the prime minister ruled out any near-term re-implementation of the goods and services tax.
Further fiscal and policy reforms will be crucial to lift investor confidence and draw more investments into the country’s new growth drivers. That will bode well for the ringgit, which has weakened about 4% this month, and local stocks.
“The government has clearly surprised on the upside by delivering growth in Malaysia, and that has really come from stepping up infrastructure, the growth in data centres, moving towards renewables and the green economy,” said Kenneth Tang, a senior portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management Asia. “We hope for more in the budget to support that growth and to also facilitate continued investments in that arena.”
Targeted cash transfers and tax reliefs are poised to increase as the government looks to mitigate the impact of rising prices on the lower income group. Anwar’s speech may also offer more details of civil servants’ salary hikes and a potential revision in the minimum wage as part of efforts to raise disposable incomes. That should benefit retailers including AEON Co Bhd and Padini Holdings Bhd .
Any delay in removing fuel subsidies may also boost consumer stocks, said Imran Yusof, the head of research at MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd.
Budget 2025 is set to include new project proposals and extensions such as the much-anticipated Mass Rapid Transit Line 3 as well as the Pan Borneo Highway, according to CIMB Securities analysts including Michelle Chia. This should support companies including Gamuda Bhd , Sunway Construction Group Bhd and IJM Corp Bhd . Any details of the Johor-Singapore High-Speed Rail and progress on a cross-border economic zone may also reignite interest in the sector.
The government may follow up its commitment to growing the semiconductor industry with more support measures and related infrastructure development, which would benefit data centre developers including YTL Power International Bhd, and technology firms such as Inari Amertron Bhd and Unisem Bhd , according to analysts.
A likely focus to aid homeownership would positively impact almost all property developers, UOB Kay Hian analysts including Vincent Khoo wrote in a report this month. Builders with large exposure to first-time home buyers and affordable houses like Lagenda Properties Bhd and Mah Sing Group Bhd will be key beneficiaries amid expectations for more initiatives to help the low- to middle-income groups with improved financing schemes and stamp duty exemption.
Traders will be looking for cues in the budget that may help set up a rebound in the ringgit after a months-long rally in the currency halted in October. The focus will be on whether the government can maintain strong growth amid plans to remove some petrol subsidies, which may lift consumer prices and keep the central bank on hold into 2025.
The budget’s impact on government bonds is likely to be more limited as the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to fall to 3.9% in 2025 from a projected 4.3% this year, according to Maybank.
“While it is encouraging that the deficit ratio continues to fall gradually, the pace of consolidation has slowed and the deficit amount will only be trimmed modestly versus Budget 2024,” said Winson Phoon, the head of fixed income research at Maybank Securities Pte Ltd. As such, the reduction in net bond issuance “is probably going to be marginal”, he said.
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