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The Egypt PMI signalled the first improvement in business conditions across the non-oil private sector in nearly four years during August.
The NZD/USD pair tumbles below 0.6150 in Monday’s European session. The Kiwi asset weakens as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the policy-easing process this month gradually.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges above 101.50. Meanwhile, the market sentiment appears to be asset-specific as risk-sensitive currencies have faced selling pressure, while the appeal of American equities has improved. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European trading hours, exhibiting a strong risk appetite of investors.
Earlier, market participants remained worried that the Fed could opt for a large interest rate cut in September amid a sharp slowdown in the United States (US) job growth, indicated by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, which prompted fears of a recession. However, Friday’s NFP report showed that the labor market health is not as bad as it appeared last month.
NZD/USD witnessed a steep fall after a breakdown of the Rising Wedge chart formation in a four-hour timeframe, which resulted in a bearish reversal. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6190 starts declining, suggesting the onset of a bearish trend in the short term.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating that a bearish momentum has been triggered.
More downside would appear if the asset decisively breaks July 17 high near 0.6100. This would push the asset lower to May 3 high at 0.6046 and the psychological support of 0.6000.
In an alternate scenario, an upside move above September 6 high of 0.6250 would drive the asset toward September 2 high of 0.6300, followed by this year high of 0.6330.
NZD/USD daily chart
Job openings fell more than expected, and Friday’s official data showed that hirings rebounded in August, though not as much as pencilled in by analysts. The US economy added a 142K new nonfarm jobs, last month’s ugly figure was further revised down by 25K jobs, but the wages grew faster than expected and the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, as expected.
As such, the data sure pointed that the Fed will cut in September, but the pricing of a 50bp cut fell to 29%, from around 40% before the release of the jobs data. The US 2-year yield tipped a toe below 3.60% but rebounded, the 10-year jumped to 3.74%, the 2 to 10-year portion of the curve is no longer inverted and the US dollar index is better bid since the data on expectation that the Fed will cut, but not in a hurry and probably not by big chunks.
In equities, the Dow Jones fell 1%, the S&P500 lost 1.73% on Friday, and recorded its worst week since March while Nasdaq 100 was the most hit, by an almost 2.70% drop in just one session. Roundhill’s Magnificent 7 ETF fell nearly 3.90% on Friday, and Broadcom – which announced better-than-expected earnings but a slightly lower than expected forecast paid the price of that unpleasant forecast with a 10% drop in its stock price. Rough. And oh, the USDJPY – where the unwinding of the carry trades tend to amplify the risk selloff – fell to the lowest levels since August and the pair is consolidating below the 143 level this morning.
And if all this is not enough, the data released in the earliest hours of this week pointed that the Japanese economy recovered slower-than-expected but that the price pressures remained higher than expected in Q2, and that inflation in China came in below estimates as well, not helping to relieve the growing tensions about China and its sputtering economy. The Nikkei index is down by more than 0.60% at the time of writing and China’s CSI 300 is down by more than 1%.
US crude fell 1.75% on the back of the mixed US jobs data on Friday, closed last week below the $70pb psychological level and remained under pressure this morning on further bad news from China. Copper futures – which are considered a gauge of global economic health – consolidate below the 200-DMA.
Good news is, US futures are in the positive, hinting that we could see a small rebound after last week’s heavy selloff.
This week, attention will shift to the latest CPI update from the US – and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. But before all that, Apple will be revealing its latest iPhones, Airpods, Apple Watch and Apple Intelligence – a new and much anticipated AI toolkit – as soon as today. And AI investors are not in their best mood to see the glass half full.
Coming back to the economic matters, the US CPI data is due Wednesday, and is expected to show a further slowdown in the US headline inflation to 2.6% in August, from 2.9% printed a month earlier. A sufficiently soft data will keep the expectation of Fed cuts on the table, but won’t move mountains, unless we see a big surprise to the upside – in which case the Fed cut expectations could take a hit. As the Fed’s Waller said ‘the balance of risks has shifted toward the employment side of [their] dual market’.
For the ECB, the expectations are pretty clear. The ECB is expected to announce a 25bp cut when it meets this Thursday, but what will happen next is not clear. The Eurozone inflation has been slowing, along with growth. Released Friday, the GDP data pointed at a softer-than-expected growth in Q2 due to a prolonged weakness in the zone’s manufacturing sector, especially in Germany. Meanwhile, the wages growth also eased – a good thing for the dovish ECB expectations.
Frankly, given the level of dovish Fed expectations, the ECB doves have room to increase their own dovish bets. The EURUSD, near 1.1075, looks like it could give back some advance if the ECB officials give signs this week that the progress in the inflation battle has been satisfactory enough to ease more. But what makes the euro doves more cautious than the Fed’s is that the Fed has a dual mandate – they must care about the price pressures but also about the health of the economy and the jobs market. But the ECB has a single mandate, and that’s maintaining price stability. Therefore, the ECB may not let itself seduce by faster rate cuts if the European officials think that there is the slightest chance that inflation could pick up momentum in the next few months.
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