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EUR/USD falls ahead of the ECB rate decision. GBP/USD falls after UK inflation data paves the way for more rate cuts & USD rises on Trump trade. US retail sales and jobless claims in focus.
The ECB meets. Final September Eurozone consumer price data should confirm that inflation has fallen almost nine percentage points from its peak, and a whole percentage point this year. Cutting rates is simply an act of chasing inflation lower and keeping real rates stable, UBS’ economist Paul Donoban notes.
“ECB meetings mean ECB President Lagarde press conferences (although Lagarde has been uncharacteristically quiet recently). There is enough uncertainty about the economic outlook to raise questions about the pace of easing, forcing economists to listen to Lagarde’s remarks.”
“Japanese export data in September were unexpectedly weak. This is not necessarily a reflection of weaker global consumer demand given patterns of spending are shifting toward having fun (having fun = events that can be posted on Instagram). US September retail sales data mainly cover the boring parts of spending but there are some fun elements. The advice never to short the hedonism of US consumers holds good.”
“US industrial and manufacturing output data are due, along with the Philly Fed manufacturing sentiment poll. Manufacturing output (on the official data) has risen slightly this year. Sentiment (ISM, Philly Fed) has pointed to a near continuous contraction for the past two years. It is enough to make one question whether sentiment lives in the real world.”
U.S. pipeline operator Kinder Morgan has revised down its earnings guidance for this year amid a decline in oil prices and oil product volumes.
The company reported late on Wednesday adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 for the third quarter, flat compared to the third quarter of 2023, and slightly missing the average expectation of $0.27 EPS, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
Citing lower-than-budgeted commodity prices and start-up delays on its renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities, Kinder Morgan revised down its profit expectations for the full-year of 2024.
During the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. benchmark oil price, WTI Crude, averaged 8.1% below the price in the same period of 2023, as concerns about global oil demand weighed down on international oil prices between July and September.
Due to lower-than-budgeted oil prices and start-up delays on RNG facilities, the pipeline giant now expects to be below budget on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by about 2%. Full-year adjusted EPS would be some 4% lower than initially expected, although both adjusted core earnings and earnings per share are set to increase compared to 2023.
In the products pipeline segment, refined products volumes were up 1% and crude and condensate volumes were down 4% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2023, Kinder Morgan’s president Thomas Martin said on the earnings call.
For the full year 2024, the company expects refined products volumes to be slightly below the plan to 2% growth over 2023, Martin added.
Kinder Morgan noted huge opportunities in the natural gas business amid growing U.S. demand for electricity.
“Discussions around opportunities related to significant new natural gas demand for electric generation associated with coal conversions at power plants, artificial intelligence operations, cryptocurrency mining, data centers, and industrial re-shoring also continued during the quarter, and we now see an opportunity set well in excess of 5 Bcf/d in that area,” CEO Kim Dang said.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to gain ground against its major peers on Thursday after facing an intense sell-off on Wednesday. The British currency slumped after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which showed that inflation grew at a slower-than-expected pace.
Annual headline inflation decelerated to 1.7%, below the Bank of England’s (BoE) target of 2%. The core CPI – which excludes a few of the more volatile items – rose by 3.2%, also lower than expected. UK’s service inflation, a closely watched indicator by BoE officials for decision-making on interest rates, decelerated to 4.9%.
Plunging inflationary pressures have bolstered BoE dovish bets. Traders are pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in each of the two policy meetings that remain for the year. Before the inflation data release, market participants were anticipating the BoE to cut its key borrowing rates only once, either in November or December.
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves welcomed the sharp drop in inflation ahead of her first budget, which she will present on October 30. A sharp decline in price pressures should allow Reeves to spend more money on development.
On the economic front, the next important data point in the UK is Retail Sales data for September, which will be published on Friday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have declined 0.3% after gaining 1.1% in August on month-on-month. On an annual basis, the consumer spending measure is expected to have grown by 3.2%, higher than 2.5% in August.
The Pound Sterling bears take a breath after sliding to near 1.2970 against the US Dollar in Thursday’s London session. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains vulnerable as the US Dollar rises further as traders have priced out Federal Reserve’s (Fed) large rate cut bets in November.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh over 10-week high near 103.60. Market participants don’t expect the Fed to continue with hefty rate cuts as the recent United States (US) labor market data for September showed that the labor market remains quite resilient.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that markets broadly expect the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both policy meetings in November and December.
Meanwhile, rising expectations for former US President Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections, scheduled for November 5, has strengthened the US Dollar. Investors expect a Trump administration to provide looser financial conditions, higher import tariffs, and tax cuts.
In Thursday’s US session, investors will pay close attention to the monthly US Retail Sales data for September, a key measure of consumer spending, to be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect the Retail Sales to have grown by 0.3%.
The Pound Sterling shifts below the psychological figure of 1.3000 against the US Dollar in the London trading hours. The GBP/USD pair weakened after breaking below the four-day trading range, extending between 1.3020 and 1.3100. The Cable was already under pressure after slipping below the upward-sloping trendline plotted from the 28 December 2023 high of 1.2827 earlier in October.
The near-term trend of the major looks vulnerable as the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.3135 and 1.3100, respectively, are sloping downwards.
The recent downside move in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 40.00 also suggests a bearish momentum is picking up.
Looking down, the 200-day EMA near 1.2840 will be a major support zone for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the round-level figure of 1.3100.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) seems to be rinsing and repeating the depreciation of the past few days on Thursday as market bears – now more confident in the persistence of the evolving downtrend – push the Peso lower in all its key pairs.
A cocktail of ingredients is contributing to the Peso’s shakedown, including former president Donald Trump’s threat to slam Mexican auto imports with tariffs of up to 300%, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that highlighted a slowdown in economic activity; political risk, and a deterioration of Consumer Confidence data for September.
The Mexican Peso declined on average 1.5% on Tuesday, after Donald Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg News that “Mexico is a tremendous challenge for us.” He went on to explain how China was building mega car-manufacturing plants on the US-Mexico border, from where it was flooding the US market and hounding out US competitors.
Trump vowed to stop the practice by reinstating high tariffs and so enable a regeneration of the US auto industry. Given the significance of the automotive industry to the Mexican economy, as well as the demand for Peso’s generated by exports to the US, the former president’s comments weighed on MXN..
The Mexican Peso saw further weakness after the IMF published a report on Tuesday in which it forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing to 1.5% at the end of 2024. This comes after the most recent GDP data showed the economy grew 2.1% in Q2. It is also below the Bank of Mexico’s own 2.1% forecast for 2024, although it is slightly higher than the average of the responses in the Banxico’s September survey of private-sector analysts of 1.45%.
The main reasons for the slowdown were given as “binding capacity constraints and a tight monetary policy stance” as well as weaker-than-expected growth in the US and the “unforeseen effects from recent institutional reforms”, according to the report. The latter refers to the controversial judicial reform, which has spooked markets.
In regards to headline inflation, the IMF saw this falling to the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3.0% target in 2025, in line with the central bank’s own forecasts but below the Banxico survey average forecast of 3.86% (3.80% median).
Further downwards pressure on the Peso comes from expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce foreign capital inflows. The central bank is expected to cut the prime interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) (0.50%) before the end of 2024, bringing it down to 10.00% from 10.50%.
This is reflected in Banxico’s survey mean forecasts, which show respondents project a fall in the bank rate to an average of 10.04% by the end of 2024 (10.00% median) and 8.09% by the end of 2025 (8.00% median).
USD/MXN extends its recovery from support provided by the base of a rising channel as well as the (red) 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) nearby.
USD/MXN Daily Chart
USD/MXN is now probably in a short-term uptrend, which given the technical analysis principle that “the trend is your friend,” is biased to continue.
The break above the 19.83 (October 1 high) target will now probably lead to a move up to between 20.10-20.15 and the vicinity of the September 10 high at 20.13.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (blue) line is rising sharply and has broken above its (red) signal line, further indicating a bullish bias.
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