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In the world of mankind, there will not be a statement without any position, nor a remark without any purpose.
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
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The latest breaking news and the global financial events.
I have 5 years of experience in financial analysis, especially in aspects of macro developments and medium and long-term trend judgment. My focus is maily on the developments of the Middle East, emerging markets, coal, wheat and other agricultural products.
BeingTrader chief Trading Coach & Speaker, 8+ years of experience in the forex market trading mainly XAUUSD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Crude Oil. A confident trader and analyst who aims to explore various opportunities and guide investors in the market. As an analyst I am looking to enhance the trader’s experience by supporting them with sufficient data and signals.
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In a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
This approach has, at this time, brought investors' inflationary expectations down to 2.1 percent for the next five- to ten-year period.
So, Fed actions in this part of the financial markets have seemingly convinced the investment community that the Fed is serious about achieving the Fed's 2.0 percent target for inflation in the economy.
But, this is not all that the Federal Reserve has done over the past twenty-nine months. The Federal Reserve has also conducted a policy of quantitative tightening, where it has worked to reduce the size of the Fed's securities portfolio.
Here is the Fed's performance over the past twenty-nine months. The total reduction in the Federal Reserve portfolio has been just under $1.8 trillion. As can be seen, this reduction has occurred in a very steady and persistent manner.
Economists and market participants are getting worried over the possibility of a recession happening because of what the Federal Reserve has done.
As readers of my posts know, I am not as concerned with this possibility because of all the money the Federal Reserve pumped into the economy as it was fighting the disturbances caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and following recession.
I believe that we need to add a few earlier months to the above chart.
This picture, I believe, puts the current reduction in the M2 money stock into the proper perspective.
The compound annual rate of growth of the M2 money stock during this time of expansion is over 8.0 percent.
Historically, this puts the current period into the class of "excessive" monetary growth.
The only reason, seemingly, that inflation did not get more "out-of-hand" is that people did not use the money stock at the same pace that they formerly had done. That is the velocity of monetary circulation fell.
Although the velocity of circulation of the M2 money stock has picked up, it has still not returned to earlier levels.
As a consequence, as I have frequently been writing about, there is a lot of money "lying around" in the financial system.
For example, the commercial banking system has about $3.3 trillion in "vault cash."
This is one reason that the U.S. economy is still performing at a relatively satisfactory rate, and it is also the reason why the stock market has hit all the "historic highs" it did while the Federal Reserve was conducting a policy of quantitative tightening.
In fact, Mr. Powell, in his Jackson Hole speech, reviews the state of the economy and professes that the economy is in a relatively good place.
Economic growth, according to Mr. Powell, "continues...at a solid pace."
"Prices have risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months."
"The labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state." This is the result of "a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring." Not that bad.
So, the economy is in pretty good shape, but there are issues in the financial sector that need to be dealt with.
It is a time for policy adjustment.But, Mr. Powell reiterates, the Federal Reserve should not go overboard in trying to get everything right in the next few months.
The Federal Reserve will move...but, just don't expect it to move too rapidly.
(Aug 26): Oil advanced as the Middle East braced for escalating conflict after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
Global benchmark Brent rose above US$79 a barrel, while US marker West Texas Intermediate climbed to near US$75. Israel on Sunday morning sent more than 100 warplanes to take out thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers, after which the militant group responded by firing more than 200 projectiles that did limited damage, according to Israeli officials.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and designated a terrorist organization by the US, said it “concluded” its military operation for the day but that it will continue hostilities with Israel until the country agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza.
In a sign of relative calm after the exchange of fire, negotiations in Cairo aimed at establishing a pause in the fighting between Israel and the Palestinian militia Hamas commenced as planned on Sunday. Israel also relaxed safety restrictions on its population on Sunday night, after earlier imposing a state of emergency and shutting its main airport for several hours.
Monday’s move higher has cemented oil’s return to a gain for the year, helped by political risks, and expectations of an imminent cut to interest rates in the US. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his most decisive signal yet that his inflation-fighting mission has been accomplished at his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, saying that “the time has come for policy to adjust.”
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