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In recent weeks, the performance of G10 currencies has reverted to more familiar risk-aversion dynamics, mirroring patterns seen prior to the recent global inflation surge.
Following a two-day selloff, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand in the European session on Friday. Eurostat will release revisions to second quarter Employment Change and Gross Domestic product data later in the session. More importantly, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the August jobs report, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures.
The USD Index extended its slide and closed in negative territory for the second consecutive day on Thursday, pressured by the disappointing ADP Employment Change data. In August, payrolls in the private sector rose by 99,000, missing the market expectation of 145,000 by a wide margin. Early Friday, the USD Index trades marginally lower on the day below 101.00. In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield continues to push lower and loses nearly 1% on the day slightly below 3.7%, while US stock index futures lose between 0.2% and 0.8%. Investors expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise 140,000 following the disappointing 114,000 increase recorded in July.
After rising sharply toward 1.3600 earlier in the week, USD/CAD reversed its direction and erased its gains in the second half of the week. Early Friday, the pair holds steady at around 1.3500. Statistics Canada will publish labor market data for August later in the day.
The data from Germany showed on Friday that Industrial Production contracted by 2.4% on a monthly basis in July. EUR/USD showed no reaction to this figure and was last seen trading above 1.1100.
GBP/USD holds its ground and edges higher toward 1.3200 early Friday after ending the previous two days in positive territory.
USD/JPY registered small losses on Thursday but came under renewed bearish pressure during the Asian trading hours on Friday. At the time of press, the pair was trading at 142.30, losing 0.8% on the day.
Following the bearish action seen in the first half of the week, Gold gathered bullish momentum and reclaimed $2,500. XAU/USD consolidates its gains at around $2,520.
EUR/USD extends its winning spree for the third consecutive trading session on Friday, trading close to a fresh weekly high of 1.1120. Decent gains in the shared currency pair are driven by sheer weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides further below the crucial support of 101.00.
The appeal for the US Dollar has weakened after United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for July and the ADP Employment data for August, released earlier this week, deepened fears of deteriorating labor market conditions. Fresh job vacancies and additions of payrolls in the private sector stood at 7.67 million and 99K, respectively, the lowest in more than three-and-a-half years.
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August came in better than projected but failed to cushion the US Dollar.
Signs of slowing labor demand prompted market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start cutting interest rates aggressively. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% has increased to 41% from 34% recorded a week ago.
For more cues on the interest rate path, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The official employment data is expected to show that US employers hired 160K job-seekers, higher than July’s reading of 114K. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have declined to 4.2% from the former release of 4.3%.
Investors will also focus on the US Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that influences consumer spending. Earnings are expected to have accelerated to 3.7% from 3.6% in July on a year-on-year basis. The wage growth measure is seen growing by 0.3% on the month, faster than the prior increase of 0.2%.
EUR/USD rises on sheer weakness in the US Dollar ahead of the US NFP data. By itself, the Euro (ECB) exhibits a mixed performance against its major peers as traders aren’t sure about the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate path for the remainder of the year.
The ECB is widely anticipated to cut interest rates again in the September meeting. The central bank started the policy-easing process in June but kept its key borrowing rates unchanged in July. For the last quarter of this year, traders remain split on whether the ECB will cut in the November or December meeting, or in both of them.
Economists at Bank of America (BofA) said in their latest viewpoint on the Eurozone: "We still see more cuts in 2025/26 than the markets are pricing, with a return to a deposit rate of 2% by 3Q25 (at the latest) and to 1.5% in 2026." BofA analysts said that the recovery in the Eurozone remains fragile and will likely be shallow, pressured by several economic factors including slowing growth in China as well as political factors.
Further evidence of economic struggle came from the Eurozone’s two largest economies. Industrial production in Germany fell 2.4% on month in July, much more than the 0.3% decline expected by economists. In France, Industrial Output fell by 0.5%.
According to a Reuters poll carried out between August 30 and September 5, 85% of economists anticipate that the ECB will cut interest rates next week and again in the December meeting.
Meanwhile, most ECB officials seem to be comfortable with market speculation for interest rate cuts as they remain worried about growing risks to Eurozone economic growth. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said in an interview with a French newspaper this week that "there is a real risk that [the ECB] stance could become too restrictive."
EUR/USD remains steady above the round-level figure of 1.1100. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair remains firm as it manages to gain firm footing near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1055.
The longer-term outlook is also bullish as the 50-day and 200-day EMAs at 1.0970 and 1.0865, respectively, are sloping higher. Also, the shared currency pair holds the Rising Channel breakout on a daily time frame.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined below 60.00 after turning overbought near 75.00.
On the upside, the recent high of 1.1200 and the July 2023 high at 1.1275 will be the next stop for the Euro bulls. Meanwhile, the downside is expected to remain cushioned near the psychological support of 1.1000.
The ADP job report yesterday produced the same price action seen in the wake of the US manufacturing ISM and US job openings. A below-consensus 99k for August and a downward revision to July’s report delivered another setback to yields. Outperformance at the front caused the 10-yr/2-yr spread to turn positive again only to be reversed after the publication of the August services ISM. Numbers were in line with expectations (headline 51.5 vs 51.4) but it sufficed for the likes of the 2-yr to cap previous losses somewhat. Maturities from 10-yr on finished at or even below the previous intraday lows. It meant the lowest closing level since July 2023. Eventual changes varied from -1.1 bp (2-yr) to -3.8 bps (30-yr).
German yields eased 1.5-2.7 bps across the curve. Both data releases caused some intraday dollar volatility as well. The greenback lost ground against most peers. EUR/USD topped 1.11 with the previous YtD high around 1.12 looming. DXY finished just north of 101. USD/JPY’s close (143.45) was the lowest since early January.
Oil (Brent $72.7/b, unchanged) wanted to but failed to gain on confirmed rumours that OPEC+ has agreed to delay a plan to gradually restore output due to the recent plunge in prices.
It’s P-day today. The official payrolls report’s importance is difficult to overstate. In the run-up SF Fed president Daly said that the Fed’s job right now is to keep the labour market about where it is now. She doesn’t yet know how big a rate cut is needed though. Goolsbee (Chicago) said he’s seeing mounting warning signs from the labor market and argued for multiple rate cuts soon. The consensus is for a 165k net job growth. Considering the recent developments, we think that’s a high-enough bar.
Markets will also eyeball the unemployment rate. There’s a slight decline anticipated to 4.2%. Any miss in expectations – be it in job growth, the unemployment rate or, God forbid, both – will be looked at with Powell’s message of an “unwelcome weakening in the labour market” in mind. A set of disappointing data won’t just settle the debate on a 50 bps rate cut September 18. It will also shape expectations for similar-sized moves on the remaining meetings of this year in the “go fast, go hard” logic used to counter inflation applied to the labour market. Yields risk falling off a cliff, especially after breaking through recent support levels.
The next references to look at are 3.55% (March 2023 low) and 3.45% (June 2022 interim high) for the 2-yr. The 10-yr may find some relief around 3.5% (June 2022 interim high). The dollar is prone for steep losses. EUR/USD 1.1139 won’t last long as dollar support. The EUR/USD YtD high of 1.12 serves as intermediate support ahead of 1.1274.
At the press conference following Wednesday’s policy decision of the Polish National Bank (NBP), governor Glapinski slightly eased its previous assessment that NBP would only be able to cut interest rates in 2026 at the earliest. He indicated that the NBP could come in a position to start discussing interest rate cuts next year. However for now, the expected path of inflation remains too high. The NBP governor expects inflation to be around 5.0% at the end of the year. In addition, price growth still might increase early next year as measures to shield consumers for price rises will expire. Only when inflation stabilizes and there is a projected decline in the next quarters, the NBP will be able to start discussing rate cuts. Glapinski indicated that such scenario might materialize after Q2 next year. In a positive scenario it might occur after the Mach CPI projections. In any case, he expects a cautious start (25 bps) and the NBP won’t announce an easing cycle already at the time. Glapinski also still sees the government budget as being loose, which is a risk for the disinflation process. EUR/PLN holds at tight range between 4.26 and 4.30.
July data on Japanese household spending published this morning disappointed. Real spending was only 0.1% higher compared to the same month last year. Markets expected a rebound to 1.2% Y/Y. Nominal spending rose 3.3% Y/Y. In a monthly perspective spending even declined 1.7%. Today’s data indicate that Japanese consumers are relucted to spend even as real wages are moving into positive territory. Yesterday, July labour cash earnings data materially surpassed market expectations. For now, we don’t think these data will change the BOJ’s intention to normalize policy further. The yen this morning remains well bid, with USD/JPY (142.55) closing in on the ‘spike’ levels reached at the risk-off early August.
The ECB cut policy rates by 25 bps in June and will likely do so again in September. Stubborn inflation (core, services) warrants a cautious approach on follow-up moves. Markets price in two to three more cuts for 2024 as disappointing US and unconvincing EMU activity data rolled in, dragging the long end of the curve down. The levels set in the wake of the August market meltdown for the time being serves as support.
The Fed in its July meeting paved the way for a first cut in September. It turned attentive to risks to the both sides of its dual mandate as the economy is moving to a better in to balance. The pivot weakened the technical picture in US yields. A string of weak eco data pushed and kept the 10-yr sub 4%. Markets increasingly add to 2024 cut bets with more than one jumbo-sized cut gaining traction.
EUR/USD moved above the 1.09 resistance area as the dollar lost interest rate support at stealth pace. US recession risks and bets on fast and large (50 bps) rate cuts trump traditional safe haven (recessionary) flows into USD. EUR/USD 1.12 was tested but survived. A (technical) dollar comeback had no strong legs. The greenback looks vulnerable.
The BoE delivered a hawkish cut in August. Policy restrictiveness will be further unwound gradually on a pace determined by a broad range of data. The strategy similar to the ECB’s balances out EUR/GBP in a monetary perspective. Recent better UK activity data and a cautious assessment of BoE’s Bailey at Jackson Hole are pushing EUR/GBP lower in the 0.84/0.086 range.
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