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Recent economic indicators from the United States paint a multifaceted picture of the country's economic health, signalling both positive and challenging trends as we move into the final quarter of the year.
The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. However, the INR may strengthen due to anticipated foreign fund inflows, as the Indian stock market may track the upward trend of its Asian peers, with traders reacting to a record closing on Wall Street.
The USD/INR pair may weaken due to declining Oil prices, as India is the world's third-largest Oil importer, and Oil constitutes a significant portion of the country's import expenditures. Crude Oil prices are experiencing downward pressure following a media report indicating that Israel is inclined to avoid targeting Iranian Oil facilities, which has alleviated concerns about potential supply disruptions.
On Monday, the Indian Rupee received downward pressure as Foreign institutional investors sold a net total of 37.32 billion rupees ($444 million) in stocks, marking their eleventh consecutive session of net selling. In contrast, domestic investors net purchased shares valued at 22.78 billion rupees, per Reuters.
The USD/INR pair hovers around 84.00, close to its highest level, as the US Dollar continues to appreciate due to the fading likelihood of further aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 83.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the United States (US) that Israel plans to focus on Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reassured markets late on Monday by reaffirming the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.
The risk-sensitive INR faces challenges from safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that have sparked concerns of a broader regional conflict. According to CNN, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed, and over 60 people were injured in a drone attack in north-central Israel on Sunday.
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 5.49% year-over-year in September, up from 3.65% in the previous month, significantly surpassing market expectations of 5.0%. This marks the highest inflation rate recorded since the beginning of the year, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4%, after dipping below this threshold in the first two months of the September quarter.
The USD/INR pair trades around 84.00 on Tuesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows that the USD/INR pair is positioned within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, confirming the ongoing bullish sentiment for the pair.
In terms of resistance, the USD/INR pair could find a barrier around its all-time high of 84.14, recorded on August 5. A break above this level could support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 84.30 level.
On the downside, the immediate support appears at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the psychological level of 84.00 followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 83.97 level.
Canada’s labour market bucked its weakening trend in September, adding 47k new jobs. Adding to the good news, the gains were entirely full-time (+112k), and in the private sector (+61k). Meanwhile part-time positions gave back their August gains (-65k).
Job gains were strong enough to push the unemployment rate down a tenth to 6.5%, the first improvement since January. Labour force growth was modest in September (+16k), as the participation rate fell two tenths to 64.9%.
Looking across sectors, job gains were concentrated in information, culture and recreation (+22k, 2.6%), wholesale and retail trade (+22k, 0.8%) and professional, scientific and technical services (+21k, 1.1%).
The unemployment rate ticked down in September, driven entirely by youth. The unemployment rate for those aged 15-24 fell a full percentage point to 13.5%, but is still 2.8 percentage points higher than a year ago. Perhaps more telling is that the share of the core working age population (25-54 years) with a job continued to tick down. It has fallen 1.6 percentage points relative to the start of 2023.
In one gray cloud in the report, total hours worked fell again in September (-0.4% month-on-month), and are up 1.2% over the past year. Wage growth cooled to 4.6% year-on-year in September.
A move down in Canada’s unemployment rate is good news, and the two year bond yield is up a few tenths on the news. However, September’s jobs report does not change the picture of a labour market that has cooled notably since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Data rarely moves in a straight line, and we would need to see a few more months of strength before we declare an improving trend.
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision is in less than two weeks, and another cut is widely expected. Some market participants are leaning towards a larger half point move after the Fed’s larger cut, but September’s job data will likely pare those bets back a bit. We look for another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 23rd.
The USD/CAD pair trades near its highest level since August 6 during the Asian session on Tuesday, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 1.3800 round-figure mark.
The US Dollar (USD) stands tall near a two-month high amid expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November. This assists the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady above the 4% mark and continues to offer some support to the buck, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the USD/CAD pair higher for the tenth straight day.
Meanwhile, a report on Monday suggested that Israel will not attack Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. Moreover, a fall in China's oil imports for the fifth straight month raised concerns about weak demand in the world's top importer. Adding to this, OPEC lowered its 2024 and 2025 global oil demand forecasts. This leads to a further decline in Crude Oil prices, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, overshadow Friday's upbeat Canadian jobs data, which forced investors to pare bets for a larger rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Traders now look forward to the release of the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures, due later during the North American session. This, along with the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Fedspeak, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) witnessed an intraday pullback from over a one-week high touched on Monday and finally settled in the red, snapping a two-day winning streak amid broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength. Investors have priced out the possibility of another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. This kept the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which pushed the buck to over a two-month top and drove flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
Adding to this, geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East assisted the safe-haven precious metal to stall its intraday slide and hold steady above the $2,640 level during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The US Dollar shot to its highest level since August 8 on Monday amid growing acceptance of a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and bets for a regular 25 basis points interest rate cut in November.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the monetary policy is still restrictive and suggested that further modest interest rate cuts could be appropriate as the job market remains strong.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy is on solid footing, may not be slowing as much as desired, and that the central bank should proceed with more caution on rate cuts than at the September meeting.
The lack of numerical details for China's fiscal stimulus, along with signs of economic softness in the biggest bullion consumer, prompted some intraday selling around the Gold price on the first day of a new week.
Israel vowed a forceful response to Hezbollah’s drone attack on its army base on Sunday, which killed four soldiers and severely wounded seven others, raising the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
This comes amid growing concern that Israel may mount an offensive against Iranian assets and a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, which offers some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Traders now look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with Fedspeak, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD later during the North American session.
From a technical perspective, the overnight swing high, around the $2,666-2,667 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the Gold price back towards the all-time peak, around the $2,685-2,686 region touched in September. This is closely followed by the $2,700 round-figure mark, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of a well-established multi-month-old uptrend.
On the flip side, weakness below the $2,632-2,630 immediate support is likely to attract some buyers and remain limited near the $2,600 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the said handle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $2,560 zone. The corrective slide could extend further towards the $2,535-2,530 region en route to the $2,500 psychological mark.
Germany is suffering a mild recession and output across the whole of 2024 will be flat, according to a Bloomberg survey — underscoring the malaise in Europe’s largest economy.
Analysts in the poll see gross domestic product shrinking 0.1% in the third quarter, following a surprise contraction of that magnitude in the second. A month ago, they still forecast stagnation between July and September.
Their full-year projection also marks a downward revision from the 0.1% expansion previously envisioned. But it’s a tad more optimistic than the government, which last week slashed its forecast to a contraction of 0.2%.
Germany’s struggles are once again in the spotlight, with retrenchment by some of its top industrial firms adding to the gloom. The weakness is largely down to the cutoff of Russian energy supplies, disappointing export demand from China, problems among carmakers and a dearth of skilled workers.
A contraction in 2024 would be only the second time GDP declined in consecutive years since West and East Germany were reunified in 1990. In 2023, Germany was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink, by 0.3%.
“Industry remains the Achilles heel,” said Erik-Jan van Harn, an analyst at Rabobank. “There’s no clear catalyst for a turnaround. A bottoming out is the best case scenario for now.”
For 2025, analysts expect 0.8% growth compared with 1% before. The government’s new forecasts envisage 1.1%.
Germany’s “economic weakness likely continued in the second half of 2024, before growth momentum gradually increases again next year,” the Economy Ministry said Monday in a report, adding that a “technical recession” probably occurred in the second and third quarters.
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