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Gold's rally continues, and following another brief correction it is close to reaching a sixth record this year.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) seems to be rinsing and repeating the depreciation of the past few days on Thursday as market bears – now more confident in the persistence of the evolving downtrend – push the Peso lower in all its key pairs.
A cocktail of ingredients is contributing to the Peso’s shakedown, including former president Donald Trump’s threat to slam Mexican auto imports with tariffs of up to 300%, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that highlighted a slowdown in economic activity; political risk, and a deterioration of Consumer Confidence data for September.
The Mexican Peso declined on average 1.5% on Tuesday, after Donald Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg News that “Mexico is a tremendous challenge for us.” He went on to explain how China was building mega car-manufacturing plants on the US-Mexico border, from where it was flooding the US market and hounding out US competitors.
Trump vowed to stop the practice by reinstating high tariffs and so enable a regeneration of the US auto industry. Given the significance of the automotive industry to the Mexican economy, as well as the demand for Peso’s generated by exports to the US, the former president’s comments weighed on MXN..
The Mexican Peso saw further weakness after the IMF published a report on Tuesday in which it forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing to 1.5% at the end of 2024. This comes after the most recent GDP data showed the economy grew 2.1% in Q2. It is also below the Bank of Mexico’s own 2.1% forecast for 2024, although it is slightly higher than the average of the responses in the Banxico’s September survey of private-sector analysts of 1.45%.
The main reasons for the slowdown were given as “binding capacity constraints and a tight monetary policy stance” as well as weaker-than-expected growth in the US and the “unforeseen effects from recent institutional reforms”, according to the report. The latter refers to the controversial judicial reform, which has spooked markets.
In regards to headline inflation, the IMF saw this falling to the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3.0% target in 2025, in line with the central bank’s own forecasts but below the Banxico survey average forecast of 3.86% (3.80% median).
Further downwards pressure on the Peso comes from expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce foreign capital inflows. The central bank is expected to cut the prime interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) (0.50%) before the end of 2024, bringing it down to 10.00% from 10.50%.
This is reflected in Banxico’s survey mean forecasts, which show respondents project a fall in the bank rate to an average of 10.04% by the end of 2024 (10.00% median) and 8.09% by the end of 2025 (8.00% median).
USD/MXN extends its recovery from support provided by the base of a rising channel as well as the (red) 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) nearby.
USD/MXN Daily Chart
USD/MXN is now probably in a short-term uptrend, which given the technical analysis principle that “the trend is your friend,” is biased to continue.
The break above the 19.83 (October 1 high) target will now probably lead to a move up to between 20.10-20.15 and the vicinity of the September 10 high at 20.13.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (blue) line is rising sharply and has broken above its (red) signal line, further indicating a bullish bias.
The USD/CHF pair retreats a few pips from a two-month peak touched earlier this Thursday and trades around mid-0.8600s, nearly unchanged for the day during the first half of the European session. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.
The US Dollar (USD) climbs to its highest level since early August and continues to draw support from growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond above the 4% mark, which acts as a tailwind for the buck and validates the positive outlook for the USD/CHF pair.
Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment, bolstered by China's stimulus measures, could undermine the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) and support prospects for an extension of the USD/CHF pair's move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so. Even from a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) compliments the constructive setup.
Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production figures. The data will be assessed for cues about the Fed's timeline for potential rate cuts, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.
The market focus will then shift to the Chinese macro data dump, including the third quarter GDP report, due for release during the Asian session on Friday, which will influence the broader risk sentiment. Nevertheless, the aforementioned supporting factors suggest that any meaningful corrective decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned amid a bullish USD.
Oil prices were broadly flat on Thursday as investors waited on developments in the Middle East, the release of official US oil inventory data and details on China's stimulus plans.
Both benchmarks settled down on Wednesday, closing at their lowest levels since Oct 2 for a second day in a row, after Opec and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
Prices have also fallen as fears eased that a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran for the latter's Oct 1 missile strike could disrupt oil supplies, though uncertainty remains over how the conflict in the Middle East will develop.
"The country's forthcoming retaliatory measures against Iran are still not clear," said John Evans of oil broker PVM.
He added that the Middle East "will certainly provide enough reason to move oil prices again soon enough and investors today will also be preoccupied with an abundance of financial data".
Among that data are US oil inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its official government data at 11am EDT (1500 GMT).
The American Petroleum Institute's Wednesday figures showed crude and fuel stocks fell last week, market sources said, against expectations of a build-up in crude stockpiles.
"Any signs of weak demand in EIA's weekly inventory report could put further downward pressure on oil prices," ANZ analysts said.
PVM's Evans also cited Thursday's US jobless claims data at 8.30am EDT (1230 GMT) and a rate decision from the European Central Bank.
That decision may support oil prices if the bank goes ahead with lowering interest rates again, the first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years, as it shifts focus from cooling inflation to protecting economic growth.
Investors are also waiting for further details from Beijing on broad plans announced on Oct 12 to revive its ailing economy, including efforts to shore up its ailing property market.
AUD/JPY gains momentum after two consecutive days of losses, trading near the key psychological level of 100.00 during the European session on Thursday. This upward movement is largely driven by the strengthening of the Australian Dollar (AUD), following a robust Australian employment report.
In September, seasonally adjusted Employment Change surged by 64.1K, bringing total employment to a record 14.52 million, far exceeding market expectations of a 25.0K increase. This followed a revised rise of 42.6K in August.
Additionally, Australia's Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in September, matching the revised figure for August and beating forecasts of 4.2%. The number of unemployed individuals fell by 9.2K, bringing the total to 615,700.
On the JPY’s side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces additional downward pressure after the release of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data on Thursday. Japan's Trade Balance reported a deficit of JPY 294.3 billion in September, compared to August's larger deficit of JPY 703.2 billion. This marked the third consecutive month of a trade gap, and it was worse than market expectations of a JPY 237.6 billion shortfall.
Japan's exports declined by 1.7% year-over-year in September, reversing the marginally revised 5.5% growth in August and missing forecasts of a 0.5% increase. This was the first drop in exports since November 2023. Meanwhile, imports rose by 2.1% year-over-year, following a 2.3% increase in August but also falling short of the 3.2% growth expected by the market. Although this was the sixth straight month of rising imports, it represented the softest growth in the sequence.
This disappointing trade balance report adds further complications to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Earlier in the week, BoJ board member Seiji Adachi cautioned that the BoJ must avoid making any drastic changes to its policy, citing uncertainties in the global economic outlook and concerns over domestic wage growth.
After months of withstanding political pressure and public bickering, Thailand's central bank on Wednesday delivered what the country's government had been pressing for: it cut its key interest rate, the first reduction since 2020.
Now comes the hard part for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, an untested leader whose ruling Pheu Thai party has struggled to fire up the economy since it took office last year and placed its bets on a major cash handout programme.
Having lost the BOT as a whipping boy, it is up to Paetongtarn's government to deliver the goods — but the odds appear stacked against it.
"Of course, this time there are no excuses. The government must continue to stimulate the economy fully," said Natapon Khamthakrue, an analyst at Yuanta Securities.
Bogged down by massive household debt, lacklustre consumer spending and plummeting industrial sentiment, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces an extended period of headwinds after growing 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, analysts said.
"The slowdown in economic growth is far from over," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, forecasting a slide in GDP growth to just 2% next year.
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) itself cut its 2025 GDP growth projection to 2.9% from its earlier forecast of 3%, although the economy was expected to grow 2.7% this year, higher than the 2.6% it had previously forecast but lagging its Asian peers.
The central bank also emphasised that Wednesday's 25-basis-point rate cut wasn't the start of an easing cycle, describing it as a "recalibration" that was not triggered by political pressure.
Key growth engines of the Thai economy, including the critical automobile industry, are sputtering and the country of 66 million people is seeing a wave of factory closures that is upending its manufacturing sector.
In September, Thailand's industrial sentiment index hit a 27 month-low due to soft domestic demand, floods that ravaged the country's north and a strong baht currency.
"Thailand has experienced the slowest recovery of any country in the region from the pandemic," said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, which expects another rate cut in December."GDP is only just above pre-crisis levels, and growth is likely to remain subdued over the coming months as weaker global demand and slower growth in tourism weigh on the recovery."
Thailand's youngest ever premier, Paetongtarn, 38, took office in August following the shock dismissal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, a property tycoon who attempted to resuscitate the flagging economy during his year-long term.
"If there are no financial and fiscal measures to support economic growth, it is expected that the country's economic growth rate will not exceed 3% per year," she told parliament last month, promising to act with urgency.
In late September, the government rolled out the first phase of the flagship US$14 billion (RM60.35 billion) stimulus handout scheme, which aims to deliver 10,000 baht each to around 45 million people.
"The pressure is now on Paetongtarn who will have to ensure the digital wallet handout is not watered down because other big injections will take time," said Ben Kiatkwankul, partner at strategic advisory, Maverick Consulting Group.
On Thursday, a day after the BOT's surprise cut, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said that the rate reduction will help increase liquidity and confidence, but called for a higher inflation target that will push up consumer prices.
BOT chief Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput and Pichai are in the process of settling on an inflation target for 2025, with the government pushing for a review of the 1-3% target range, which has been in place since 2020.
Annual headline inflation stood at just 0.61% in September, highlighting tepid demand.
"We want to see inflation higher than now," Pichai told reporters, "A higher inflation target will help."
Another point of friction is the appointment of a chairman for the BOT board, with the government nominating last month a ruling party loyalist and critic of the central bank governor for the position to bolster its influence on the institution.
"The chair would have a say in the composition of the MPC as well as the appointment of the next BOT governor," Maybank said in a note, referring to the Monetary Policy Committee that votes on key interest rates.
Asian currencies were subdued on Thursday as the dollar firmed on improving prospects of a Donald Trump presidency, while most regional stocks gained, with Thai equities staying at a one-year high a day after a surprise rate cut by its central bank.
The Malaysian ringgit, the region's best performing currency this year, fell 0.4% and the South Korean won was down 0.3%.
The US dollar hovered near an 11-week high, supported by recent upbeat data that led traders to price in a smaller rate cut. An improvement in Trump's fortunes in the presidential election next month also buoyed the greenback.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) delivered a surprise 25-basis-point rate reduction on Wednesday, but indicated the cut was not the start of an easing cycle.
Equities in Bangkok rose 0.7%, staying at a more than one-year high, while the baht, one of the few regional currencies with year-to-date gains so far, inched 0.1% lower.
"While the Asean-6 central banks have a dovish tendency, they are not on a pre-determined rate cut path. The quantum and timing are likely to be dictated by financial market volatility, domestic growth-inflation mix and US Fed's moves," DBS analysts said in a note.
The Philippine central bank also delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, while Bank Indonesia kept rates unchanged, both as expected.
The depreciation of the rupiah has previously forced the central bank to pause and await better opportunities to ease policy, Barclays analysts said.
"Historically, bouts of IDR depreciation — as well as poor trade or current account balance data prints — have resulted in a start-stop pattern in previous BI rate-cutting cycles," they said.
The Indonesian rupiah ticked 0.1% higher and stocks rose 1%.
Other regional equities were also higher, with Singapore stocks rising as much as 1.1%, scaling their highest level in over three weeks.
Taiwanese stocks closed up 0.2%. Chip giant TSMC fell almost 1% in the session. It reported a forecast-beating 54% jump in third-quarter profit.
Elsewhere, China promised to improve builders' access to funding for finishing thousands of projects, and the central bank's deputy governor said cuts to down payments had already improved confidence and sales.
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