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With both candidates running a tight race, the outcome of this debate could significantly influence election odds and, in turn, market movements.
The USD/JPY pair drops to a fresh YTD trough during the first half of the European session on Friday, albeit manages to recover a few pips in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade around the 140.75 region, still down over 0.75% for the day and seem vulnerable to slide further.
The divergent Federal Reserve (Fed)-Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations led to the recent narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential and continued to prompt the unwinding of the Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades. In fact, the markets started pricing in the possibility of a larger interest rate cut by the US central bank following the release of the softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI), which indicated that inflation is subsiding.
Dovish Fed expectations, meanwhile, drag the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its lowest level since May 2023. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also fell to a four-week low, though hawkish signals from BoJ policymakers should limit the fall. BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said this week that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation move in line with its forecasts.
Adding to this, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the central bank must push up short-term rates to at least around 1% through fiscal 2026 to stably achieve the 2% inflation target. This, in turn, reaffirms bets that the Japanese central bank will announce another interest rate hike by the end of this year, which might continue to drive flows towards the JPY and support prospects for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair.
That said, the upbeat market mood might keep a lid on any further JPY gains as traders look forward to next week's key central bank event risks before placing fresh directional bets. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the BoJ policy update on Friday, which will play a key role in influencing the USD/JPY pair in the near term. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the second straight week – also marking the third in the previous four.
The European Central Bank's two biggest shareholders expressed confidence on Friday about the prospect for lower inflation and interest rates in the eurozone.
French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel backed Thursday's rate cut and struck a more confident tone than at any point over the last two years that the ECB's fight against high inflation was being won.
"The inflation picture looks very good," Nagel told German radio Deutschlandfunk. "We are now assuming, and the data has shown, that we will reach our inflation target of 2% by the end of the next year."
Villeroy went further, saying the "direction of the journey" was clearly for lower interest rates, albeit at a gentle pace that relied on incoming data.
"We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriate the degree of restriction of our monetary policy," he told the Eurofi financial forum in Budapest.
"But the pace has to be highly pragmatic: we are not pre-committing to any particular rate path, and we keep our full optionality for our next meetings."
Inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro currency fell to 2.2% in August, the slowest pace since July 2021, and the ECB expects it to fall to 2% by the last quarter of next year after a slight rebound in the coming year.
Growth is also flagging, particularly in industrial powerhouse Germany, strengthening the case for lower borrowing costs.
Villeroy said the inflation projections and disappointing activity data made Thursday's rate cut an "obvious" move and the ECB should now also pay attention to the risk of inflation coming in too low.
His Finnish colleague Olli Rehn said the reduction in borrowing costs would support growth but Europe should get on the road to better productivity.
The Bundesbank and the Banque de France have the biggest shares in the ECB's capital in light of the size of their country's economy and population.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) extends its gains on Friday, capping off a week in which the currency has appreciated on average 2.3% against its most heavily-traded counterparts so far.
The expectation that interest rates will fall more rapidly in Europe and the US as growth slows and labor markets weaken is weighing on the Peso’s key counterparts – the US Dollar (USD), the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, still-elevated interest rates in Mexico, at 10.75%, continue to attract foreign capital inflows, supporting MXN.
The Mexican Peso rises against the USD on the back of a revival of the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) making a larger 0.50% (50 basis points) interest-rate cut at its September meeting next week. Such a cut would be negative for the US Dollar (USD) as lower interest rates attract less capital inflows.
Speculation of a larger 0.50% cut was revived by a respected The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter, Nick Timiraos, who wrote an article in support of the case. This was followed by a story in the Financial Times (FT) along similar lines.
During Friday’s Asian session, William Dudley, the former President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York, said “there’s a strong case” for the Fed making a half a percentage point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, in a speech in Singapore, according to Reuters.
The articles and Dudley’s comments appear to have caused a sudden drop in two-year US Treasury yields, which tumbled five basis points during Friday’s Asisan session. The USD weakened too as traders priced in the possibility of lower interest rates amid a less inflationary outlook.
“US yields fell in Asia trade on Friday while rates futures rallied in reaction to media reports that next week's decision on whether to cut by 25 bps or 50 bps was a close call,” according to Reuters.
Against the Euro, the Peso is rising after the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to slash interest rates at its September meeting on Thursday.
The ECB cut its deposit rate by 0.25% but lowered its main overnight refinancing rate and marginal lending facility by a deeper 0.60%. Although the cuts were widely telegraphed, the accompanying statement showed a downward-revision to ECB economic growth forecasts for the region, which some analysts see as a red flag warning of future cuts. This, in turn, weakened the Euro.
ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to speculate as to whether the ECB would cut rates again in October during her press conference. However, according to Bloomberg News, if the Fed goes ahead with a larger 0.50% cut next Wednesday, it would encourage the ECB to cut by another 0.25% in October.
The Pound Sterling, meanwhile, is trading on the back foot after data out of the UK showed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stalled in July when economists had forecast a 0.2% rise. This, combined with declines in both Manufacturing and Industrial output, suggests a greater likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) deciding to cut interest rates when it meets next Thursday, weighing on GBP.
The Mexican Peso remains relatively strong despite the passing of controversial judicial reforms in the country’s Senate on Wednesday. Although the reforms have been widely criticized by investors – including rating agencies such as Moody’s – for undermining the independence of the judiciary and potentially leading to a fall in foreign investment, the Peso appears to have already priced in the risk.
The lower probability of former President Donald Trump winning the presidential election in November after his poor performance in a debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday has alleviated some of the political risk that would be associated with the “America First” orientation expected from a Trump presidency.
Despite investor concerns relating to the policies of the current left-leaning government, Mexico continues to benefit from a nearshoring boom as global manufacturing companies relocate to Mexico to produce goods for the US and Latin American market.
This was highlighted by Volvo’s announcement in August, when the automaker said it was planning to build a $700 million heavy-duty truck manufacturing plant in the northern Mexican city of Monterrey.
At the time of writing, one US Dollar (USD) buys 19.50 Mexican Pesos, EUR/MXN trades at 21.60, and GBP/MXN at 25.64.
USD/MXN recently broke out of a channel and has now fallen to the target for the breakout at 19.62, calculated by taking the 0.618 Fibonacci (Fib) ratio of the height of the channel and extrapolating it lower.
USD/MXN 4-hour Chart
It has also now reached the next target at 19.50 mark, the 1.000 ratio Fib extension, which also coincides with the key support level from the August 22 swing high.
The pair is now oversold, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), advising traders not to add to short positions as the risk of a pullback has increased. If RSI exists oversold it will give a signal that a correction is underway and prices will recover. However, given the bear trend in the short term, such a correction might be relatively short-lived before prices resume their downtrend.
A close below the 19.46 September 12 low would confirm an extension of the downtrend towards the next target at 19.01 (August 23 low).
The trend on the medium and long-term charts, however, remains bullish, suggesting the risk of a recovery and resumption of the broader trend higher.
A break above 19.84 would be the first sign of such a bullish resumption, although a break above the year-to-date high at 20.15 would provide more concrete confirmation of a continuation of the bull trend, with the next target at the upper channel line in the 20.60s.
Oil prices extended their rally on Friday and were on course for a weekly gain, sparked by output disruption in the US Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine forced the evacuation of production platforms.
Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.53%, to US$72.35 a barrel by 0735 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.58%, to US$69.37.
If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines despite Brent crude dipping below US$70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021.
At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 1.9% while WTI is set to register a 2.5% gain.
"Ongoing supply disruptions in Libya and larger than expected disruption in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine keep the oil market tight," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
"Further support is likely coming from short-covering activity as result of rebounding prices."
A weaker US dollar also helped support oil prices. The currency fell to a one-week low on Friday, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the US Gulf of Mexico. Official data showed that nearly 42% of the region's oil output was shut in as of Thursday.
UBS analysts forecast September output in the region will fall by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month while FGE analysts estimated a drop of 60,000 bpd to 1.69 million bpd.
"If production delays were to prove to be short-lived and damages to oil platforms were to be minimal, those gains may be unwound, as the broader demand outlook continues to serve as a key headwind to limit any sustained recovery," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.
Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand growth forecasts this week, citing economic struggles in China, the world's largest oil importer.
In the US, oil stockpiles also rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
In the meantime, investors are looking ahead to the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting over Sept 17-18 and a possible cut to interest rates.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on a two-day-old recovery move from the lowest level since May 2023 and oscillate in a range around mid-$68.00s through the first half of the European session on Friday.
Despite worries about output disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine in the US Gulf of Mexico, a dismal demand outlook is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the black liquid. In fact, both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand growth forecasts earlier this week. This, to a larger extent, overshadows worries about output disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine in the US Gulf of Mexico and caps the upside for Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, the softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday lifted bets for a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18. This, in turn, drags the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its lowest level since May 2023. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood across the global equity markets weighs on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices.
Nevertheless, the black liquid remains on track to register modest weekly gains for the first time in the previous five, though the aforementioned fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of next week's central bank event risk – the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
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