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Trade was choppy, but ultimately risk-positive on Tuesday, albeit amid a distinct lack of conviction among market participants, ahead of today’s US CPI report.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a mild positive bias for the third straight day on Wednesday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and is currently placed around the $28.45 region, just below the weekly high touched during the Asian session.
From a technical perspective, the white metal is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-September slide and looking to build on the momentum beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Given that oscillators on the said chart have just started gaining positive traction, though are yet to confirm a bullish bias on the daily chart. Hence, the XAG/USD is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $28.95-$29.00 confluence – comprising the 50% Fibo. level and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
A sustained strength beyond, however, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for some meaningful appreciating move. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the $29.25 region, towards the $29.65 area, or the 78.6% Fibo. level. The momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the $30.00 psychological mark, above which bulls might aim to challenge the August monthly swing high, around the $30.20 zone.
On the flip side, the $28.25 region, or the 23.6% Fibo. level is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $28.00 mark. A convincing break below could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken further below the $27.70-$27.65 zone, towards the next relevant support near the $27.20 region en route to the $27.00 mark. Some follow-through selling might then expose the August monthly swing low, around the $26.40-$26.35 area, before the white metal eventually drops to the $26.00 round figure.
Silver 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and climbs to a fresh daily peak, closer to the 1.3100 round-figure mark in the last hour. Spot prices, however, remain below the overnight swing high, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a three-week low, around the 1.3050-1.3045 region touched the previous day.
The US Dollar (USD) stalls its positive trend witnessed over the past three days and retreats from the vicinity of the monthly top amid the prospects for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy-easing cycle in September. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets could help limit losses for the Greenback and cap the currency pair amid bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will announce more interest rate cuts this year.
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Tuesday that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits increased by 23.7K in August as compared to the 102.3K previous and well below the 95.5K expected. Adding to this, the ILO Unemployment Rate expectedly ticked lower from 4.2% to 4.1% in the three months to July. That said, a slowdown in the UK wage growth was seen as positive news for inflation and might provide the UK central bank with increased confidence regarding cutting interest rates further.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) ahead of the UK data dump, including the monthly GDP print, and the latest US consumer inflation figures. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBP/USD pair.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in line with its forecast, policymaker Junko Nakagawa said, signalling that last month's market rout has not derailed the bank's plan to hike borrowing costs steadily.
But the central bank must take into account the impact that such market moves could have on the outlook for the economy and prices, when considering whether to raise rates, she added.
"Given real interest rates are currently very low, we will adjust the degree of monetary support from the standpoint of sustainably and stably achieving our 2% inflation target, if our economic and price forecasts are met," Nakagawa said in a speech on Wednesday to business leaders in northern Japan.
Her remarks follow those by another member of the BOJ's policy board, Hajime Takata, who said last week that the BOJ must stay on course to raise rates — but tread carefully to ensure volatile markets do not badly hurt businesses.The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy rate target to 0.25% in July — landmark actions away from a decade-long, massive stimulus programme.
The July rate hike, coupled with weak US jobs data released in early August, pulled the yen up against the dollar and triggered a plunge in global share prices.
While stressing that there was no major change in Japan's sound economic fundamentals, Nakagawa said the BOJ "must look back upon market developments" after its July policy shift, and assess their impact on the economy.
Japan's economy expanded an annualised 2.9% in April-June, as steady wage hikes underpinned consumer spending. Capital expenditure continues to grow, though soft demand in China and slowing US growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant country.
Core consumer inflation hit 2.7% in July, underscoring the BOJ's view that Japan is on course to achieve its target of 2% inflation on a sustained basis, backed by solid wage gains.
Nakagawa warned that overseas uncertainties were risks to Japan's economy but said consumer spending will rise moderately due to higher wages, and help accelerate trend inflation.
She also said there were upside risks to Japan's price outlook, due to the country's tight job market and continued rises in import prices.
"There's a chance wage growth may overshoot expectations due to tight labour supply, so we need to be mindful of the risk that inflation may exceed our target," Nakagawa said.
Formerly the chairperson of Japan's Nomura Asset Management, Nakagawa is considered by markets as neutral in her stance on monetary policy.
Dollar softened across the board in today’s Asian session, dragged down by extended in US Treasury yields. Investors appear to be setting aside the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, focusing instead on the highly anticipated US CPI report, which might hopefully provide clearer direction on Fed’s upcoming interest rate cut.
Market expectations suggest that headline CPI will ease from 2.9% to 2.6% in August. However, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.2%. This would indicate that disinflationary momentum may be losing steam again, with services and shelter costs keeping core inflation elevated.
A downside surprise in today’s report could shift the odds toward a larger 50bps rate cut by the Fed at next week’s meeting. But the market reaction could be complicated: a significant undershoot in inflation could, at the same time, signal weakening demand, raising concerns about a broader economic slowdown.
As of now, futures markets are pricing in a 33% chance of a 50bps rate cut, with the majority (67%) betting on a smaller 25bps cut. Looking further ahead, markets are already pricing in a total of 75bps in cuts by year-end, with 90% chance of 100bps in reductions and 53% chance of 125bps.
In terms of market performance, Yen is the standout performer so far this week, buoyed by the drop in Treasury yields. Dollar and Swiss Franc follow closely behind. Euro is the weakest, with New Zealand Dollar and British Pound also underperforming, while Australian and Canadian Dollars are trading in the middle of the pack.
Technically, Gold will be monitored for confirming Dollar’s next move in reaction to US CPI release. Consolidation from 2531.52 is still extending for now, but outlook remains bullish as long as 2470.76 support holds. Decisive break of 2531.52 will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 2364.18 to 2531.52 from 2471.76 at 2575.17.
In a speech today, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted that while conditions in the Australian labor market have eased since late 2022, the market remains “tight relative to full employment.”
Looking ahead, Hunter expects labor demand to slow in comparison to labor supply, which should bring the market “into better balance” over the coming quarters. She noted that part of this adjustment is likely to come through a “decline in average hours” worked rather than sharp cuts to overall employment.
Employment growth is expected to persist but at a slower pace, lagging behind population growth. As a result, underutilization measures, including the unemployment rate, are projected to “continue rising gradually.” This rise is expected to stabilize once GDP growth returns to a level more consistent with Australia’s underlying economic trend.
Hunter’s comments underscore RBA’s outlook on the labor market, and the hawkish stance that it’s not nearing the start of rates reduction cycle yet.
In a speech today, BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa indicated that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economic outlook aligns with their forecasts. Nevertheless, she also emphasized the need to carefully consider how such moves might impact the broader economy and price stability.
“Given real interest rates are currently very low, we will adjust the degree of monetary support, from the standpoint of sustainably and stably achieving our 2% inflation target, if our economic and price forecasts are met,” she noted.
Nakagawa acknowledged Japan’s tight labor market and rising import prices as upside risks to the inflation outlook. While affirming that Japan’s economic fundamentals remain strong, she highlighted the importance to “look back upon market developments” following July’s rate hike before making any further rate adjustments.
UK GDP and production are the main highlight in European session. Later in the day, US CPI will be the main event.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.86; (P) 142.79; (R1) 143.37;
USD’s fall from 161.94 resumed by breaking through 141.76 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 140.25 support, and possibly further to 139.26 fibonacci level too. On the upside, above 143.70 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 147.20 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 148.93) holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa said on Wednesday that the” BoJ is likely to adjust the degree of monetary easing if economy and prices move in line with its projection.”
Even after July rate hike, real interest rates remain deeply negative, and accommodative monetary conditions are maintained.
If long-term rates spike, BoJ could review its taper plan at its policy meeting as needed.
There is no big change to Japan's economic fundamentals including record profits at Japan firms.
When considering adjusting degree of monetary easing further, we will scrutinize market developments after July rate hike and how that affects economy, prices.
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