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Trade was choppy, but ultimately risk-positive on Tuesday, albeit amid a distinct lack of conviction among market participants, ahead of today’s US CPI report.
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be announced alongside the publication of the staff’s updated economic projections following the September monetary policy meeting due on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference will follow, beginning at 12:45 GMT, where she will deliver the prepared statement on monetary policy and respond to media questions. The ECB announcements are likely to rock the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
After standing pat on interest rates in July, the ECB is widely expected to reduce key rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September policy meeting. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility will likely be lowered to 4.0%, 4.25%, and 3.50%, respectively.
In June’s post-policy meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that "we are determined not to have a predetermined rate path. September decision is wide open." "September projections, plus other data, will be taken into account,” Lagarde added.
The accounts of the July ECB meeting showed that September “was widely seen as a good time to re-evaluate” the level of monetary policy restriction.
Since the July meeting, the Eurozone inflation cooled off significantly, returning closer to the central bank’s 2.0% target.
Eurostat's preliminary data showed on August 30 that the Harmonised Index Of Consumer Prices (HICP) across the currency bloc rose 2.2% over the year in August, marking the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2021. Meanwhile, the Euro area negotiated wages increased at an annual pace of 3.55% in Q2 2024 after rising 4.74% in the first quarter of this year.
The ECB accounts combined with a sharp decline in the pace of wage growth, cooling inflation and weakening Euro area business activity indicate that a rate reduction is a given on Thursday.
Therefore, the ECB’s communication on the path forward and its outlook on inflation and growth will hold the key for the market’s pricing of the future rate cuts and the Euro’s (EUR) next directional move.
Previewing the ECB meeting, TD Securities analysts said: “A 25bps cut is a near-certainty. What matters will be guidance beyond September, where there's strong pressure on both sides. Wage growth and services inflation remain strong (emboldening the hawks), while growth indicators are flagging softer (emboldening the doves).” “Lagarde is unlikely to rule out an October cut, but quarterly cuts are likely more consistent with the new projections,” the analysts added.
Heading into the ECB showdown, the Euro is clinging to recovery gains, with EUR/USD reversing from monthly lows of 1.1020. The pair’s fate hinges on the ECB’s outlook on interest rates beyond September.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to stick to the bank’s data-dependent stance and refrain from giving a certain response on the next rate cut move. Unless the policy statement, or Lagarde, hints at more rate reduction coming in the final quarter of this year, the EUR/USD recovery is seen gathering further traction.
Conversely, the Euro could come under renewed selling pressure if the staff projections show downward revisions to both the inflation and economic growth outlook. Meanwhile, Lagarde’s increased confidence in the disinflation progress could also revive Euro sellers. These factors could double down on the dovish expectations, fuelling the resumption of the recent EUR/USD downtrend.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD maintains its bearish streak, especially after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator returned below the 50 level on the daily chart. If sellers flex their muscles, the immediate support of the 50-day SMA at 1.0964 will be tested. Further south, the pair could aim for the strong demand area near 1.0870, where the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA coincide.”
“On the upside, the pair needs to find acceptance above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1082 on a daily closing basis to sustain the recovery toward the September 6 high of 1.1155, above which the 1.1200 psychological level will challenge bearish commitments.”
ECB is widely expected to implement a 25bps rate cut today, marking the second adjustment in its current policy easing cycle. This cut would bring the deposit rate down to 3.50% and the main refinancing rate to 4.00%. However, the market’s attention is not solely on today’s decision but rather on the ECB’s forward guidance.
One critical question is whether ECB will hint at another rate cut in October, or if it will maintain a more cautious pace by cutting once per quarter, with December being the next move when fresh economic projections are released. T
These issues are unlikely to be directly addressed in today’s press conference, as ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely reiterate the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Nonetheless, ECB’s updated economic forecasts, particularly concerning growth, could offer insight into the bank’s level of concern over the current economic slowdown.
In the currency markets, Euro’s reaction to ECB decision will be watched closely, particularly against the British Pound and Swiss Franc.
Technically, EUR/GBP’s price actions from 0.8399 short term bottom are still corrective looking. While stronger recovery might be seen, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8399 at 0.8485. Break of 0.8399 will bring retest of 0.8382 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, sustained break of 0.8485 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8538 and possibly above.
As for EUR/CHF, a temporary low should be formed at 0.9305 with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Below 0.9305 will resume the fall from 0.9579 to retest 0.9209 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, decisive break of 0.9444 will argue that the pullback from 0.9579 has completed as a corrective move. In this case, rise from 0.9209 could be resume to resume through 0.9579 resistance instead.
Japan’s corporate goods price index decelerated to 2.5% yoy in August, falling below market expectations of 2.8% yoy, marking the first slowdown in eight months. The data reflects a cooling in price pressures, which has been reinforced by a significant 7.4% appreciation in Yen during the month.
The stronger Yen drove a steep slowdown in Yen-based import prices, with the annual growth rate dropping sharply from 10.8% yoy in July to just 2.6% yoy in August. This marks a considerable easing in import costs, offering some relief to Japanese businesses relying on foreign goods.
On a month-to-month basis, CGPI fell by -0.2% mom, while import prices measured in yen contracted significantly by -6.1% mom. The sharp fall in import costs suggests that the stronger yen is playing a key role in softening inflationary pressures, especially in the context of global commodity prices.
BoJ board member Naoki Tamura indicated in a speech today that the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation target sustainably is improving. As a result, the central bank needs to gradually raise interest rates to neutral levels.
Tamura estimated Japan’s neutral interest rate, or the rate that neither stimulates nor slows down economic activity, to be at least around 1%.
He added, “As such, it’s necessary to push up our short-term policy rate at least to around 1% by the latter half of the fiscal year ending March 2026 to sustainably achieve the BoJ’s price goal.”
In light of growing labor shortages and rising wage pressures, Tamura warned that inflation risks were increasing. Companies are responding to tight labor market conditions by raising wages and passing on higher costs through price hikes.
Tamura underscored the need to “raise interest rates at an appropriate timing, and in several stages,” in order to keep inflation under control.
This marked the first time a BoJ policymaker had publicly specified a target level for raising short-term interest rates.
ECB rate decision is the main focus of the day. US will release PPI and jobless claims.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6639; (P) 0.6657; (R1) 0.6693;
AUD/USD recovered after dipping to 0.6621 briefly and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6766 resistance holds. Break of 0.6621 and sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.6348 to 0.6823 at 0.6642 will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6529. On the upside, though, above 0.6766 resistance will bring retest of 0.6823 instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must raise interest rates to at least 1% by late next year, hawkish policymaker Naoki Tamura said on Thursday, reinforcing the bank’s resolve to persist with steady monetary tightening.
It was the first time a BOJ policymaker publicly specified a level the central bank should eventually target in pushing up short-term borrowing costs.
Tamura said the likelihood of Japan’s economy sustainably achieving the BOJ’s 2% inflation was improving, which meant the central bank must raise interest rates to levels deemed neutral to the economy by around late 2025.
He said Japan’s neutral rate of interest, or the level that neither cools nor stimulates the economy, is estimated to be at least around 1%.
"As such, it’s necessary to push up our short-term policy rate at least to around 1%," by around the latter half of the fiscal year ending March 2026, to sustainably achieve the BOJ’s price goal, Tamura said in a speech to business leaders in Okayama, western Japan.
Tamura’s remarks follow a string of comments from BOJ board members, calling for the bank to keep raising borrowing costs despite recent volatility in financial markets.
The BOJ is set to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting on Sept 20, but more than half of the economists polled by Reuters last month predict further tightening by the year’s end.
In a historic step, the BOJ ditched negative interest rates in March and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July, on the view that the economy was making progress towards durably achieving its 2% inflation target.
Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the bank’s readiness to raise rates further if inflation stays around 2% in coming years, accompanied by solid wage gains, as it currently projects.
While stressing the need to hike rates further, Tamura said the BOJ must carefully assess how rising borrowing costs affect the economy, given Japan’s prolonged experience of near-zero interest rates.
But he said market bets on the pace of BOJ rate hikes could be too slow to avoid inflation from overshooting.
"We must raise interest rates at an appropriate timing, and in several stages," said the former commercial banker, who is considered by markets as among the most hawkish in the BOJ’s nine-member board.
Tamura also said he was "worried that upside inflation risk was heightening", as intensifying labour shortages prod firms to raise wages and pass on rising costs through price increases.
Core consumer inflation hit 2.7% in July, and has been at or above the 2% target for 28 consecutive months.
The neutral interest rate is important because central banks use it to set monetary policy. It cannot be observed directly, so policymakers must estimate it using economic models.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $28.74 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The non-yielding assets like Silver receive support as traders anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates to 4.0% by implementing a 25 basis points rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting later in the day.
Easing monetary policies by central banks globally benefits Silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets. August’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that headline inflation dropped to a three-year low, which has increased expectations of a 25-basis points rate cut by the Fed in September.
No growth in the economy reinforces expectations of a possible quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November. Some traders are also pricing in the possibility of an additional rate cut in December. Investors will shift focus on the US Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims data scheduled for Thursday for further insights.
The US CPI fell to 2.5% year-on-year in August, down from the previous reading of 2.9% and below the expected 2.6%. The headline CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 3.2% year-on-year, while it increased to 0.3% month-on-month, up from the previous 0.2% reading.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has sharply decreased to 15.0%, down from 44.0% a week ago.
NZD/USD retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.6150 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The upside of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to improved risk sentiment amid rising expectations of a 25-basis points rate cut by the Fed in September.
August’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that headline inflation dropped to a three-year low, although core inflation exceeded expectations. This development has heightened the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its easing cycle with a 25-basis points interest rate cut in September.
The US Consumer Price Index dipped to 2.5% year-on-year in August, from the previous reading of 2.9%. The index has fallen short of the expected 2.6% reading. Meanwhile, headline CPI stood at 0.2% MoM. Core CPI ex Food & Energy, remained unchanged at 3.2% YoY. On a monthly basis, core CPI rose to 0.3% from the previous 0.2% reading.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has sharply decreased to 15.0%, down from 44.0% a week ago.
In New Zealand, Electronic Card Retail Sales edged up by 0.2% month-on-month in August, recovering from a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Year-on-year, electronic card transactions fell by 2.9%, improving from a 4.9% decrease in the prior month. Additionally, the monthly Food Price Index rose by 0.2% in August, down from a 0.4% increase in July.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) began its easing cycle in August with a 25 basis point cut to interest rates. The RBNZ is anticipated to implement additional rate cuts at each of its remaining two meetings this year. Market expectations suggest that the current cash rate of 5.25% could decline to 3.0% by the end of 2025.
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