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The Mexican peso has experienced a significant depreciation in recent sessions, marking its third consecutive decline midweek. The currency has lost more than 3% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past week, dangerously approaching the psychological threshold of 20 pesos per dollar.
The EUR/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, with bears still awaiting a sustained break below the 162.00 mark before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the 163.55-163.60 supply zone.
The shared currency continues to be undermined by firming expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the deposit rate by 25bps later today, marking the first back-to-back rate reduction in 13 years. This will reflect the ECB's urgency to accelerate monetary amid easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone and signs of economic weakness. Meanwhile, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broader regional war drives some haven flows towards the Japanese Yen (JPY). This further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the EUR/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, data published by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Thursday showed that total exports in September declined for the first time in 10 months and raised concerns about weakness in global demand. Against the backdrop of a surprise opposition to further rate hikes by Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the outlook complicates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to exit years of ultra-easy monetary policy. This, in turn, holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets and should help limit any further depreciating move for the EUR/JPY cross heading into the key central bank event risk.
Apart from the widely-anticipated rate cut decision, investors will keep a close eye on the updated economic projections. This, along with ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments during the post-meeting conference, will influence market expectations about the policy direction in 2025 and the Euro. Furthermore, geopolitical developments, which play a key role in driving demand for the safe-haven JPY, should allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the EUR/JPY cross.
The crypto market cap rose by 1.4% to $2.31 trillion. Cryptocurrencies and equities are now out of sync (there was profit-taking in equities), but they maintain a general upward bias. The crypto market is forming an uptrend, which will be confirmed if local highs exceed the previous high of $2.32 trillion.
Bitcoin received a jolt on Tuesday, first jumping 4% in four hours to almost $68K and then losing over 4.6% to $64.7K. The market digested this influx of stop orders and soon began to rise again, trading near $66.8K at the time of writing. It will be interesting to see the bulls and bears continue to battle on a retest of $68K. The first cryptocurrency was not allowed to go higher in July, but now the bulls have the breakdown of the descending channel and an active pullback from the 200-day moving average on their side. At the same time, the RSI on the daily timeframe is not yet in the overbought territory, leaving room to run.
Ethereum looks weak now, approaching $2,700—the area of previous peaks—but it needs to break through. Perhaps a return of risk appetite in the equity markets will spark new momentum for the second-largest cryptocurrency to rise towards $3,000.
The funding rate for perpetual bitcoin contracts has hit a multi-month high, indicating bullish sentiment and a growing influx of liquidity, notes The Block.
CryptoQuant notes that demand for Bitcoin has surged, rising at the fastest monthly pace since April 2024. Open interest (OI) in derivatives rose to a record $19.8 billion.
Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could hit an all-time high ahead of the US election. Donald Trump’s increased odds of victory, significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, and increased activity in the BTC call options market are fuelling sentiment.
MicroStrategy shares are a leading indicator of a potential bullish breakout, according to Bernstein. They are up 190% year-to-date, while BTC is up just 55%.
The US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) fined TD Bank a record $1.3 billion for facilitating money laundering through cryptocurrencies.
NZD/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.6070 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the upside for the AUD/USD pair could be limited by recent data showing that inflation in New Zealand has slowed to its lowest level in over three years. This has increased the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reducing interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in November.
New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% year-over-year in the September quarter, down from the 3.3% annual increase in the previous quarter. "For the first time since March 2021, annual inflation is within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1% to 3%. Prices are still increasing but at a slower rate than before," said Nicola Growden, consumer prices manager at Stats NZ.
Market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand's top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday.
The US Dollar (USD) found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Traders are keenly awaiting the US Retail Sales data, set to be released later in the North American session. Expectations are for monthly consumer spending to increase by 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in the previous reading.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades with mild losses on the stronger US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The significant outflows from Indian equities and USD demand from foreign banks and importers exert some selling pressure on the local currency.
However, the decline in crude oil prices amid easing fears over supply disruption in the Middle East might support the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Additionally, the routine foreign exchange interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cap the downside for the Indian Rupee.
Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales data for September, which is due later on Thursday. Also, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be released.
India’s trade deficit stood at $20.78 billion in September from $29.65 billion in August, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday.
India’s Exports rose marginally to 34.58 billion in September from 34.41 in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, Imports declined to 55.36 billion in September versus 64.36 billion prior.
Foreign funds withdrew more than $7 billion from Indian equities in the month through October 14, the largest in over four years, according to Bloomberg.
The US Retail Sales is estimated to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in the previous reading.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a nearly 94% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in November.
The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. Technically, the USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe as the price holds above the ascending trend line and the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 58.80, hinting that the uptrend is more likely to gain traction than reverse.
Sustained trading above the all-time high of 84.15 could expose the pair to a possible move up to 84.50. Further north, the next upside barrier to watch is the 85.00 psychological level.
Bearish candlesticks below the rising trend line could lead to 83.90, the low of October 10. A breach of the mentioned level could pave the way to 83.70, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is seen at 83.00, representing the round mark and the low of May 24.
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