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In the euro area, focus today is on the September inflation data from Spain, France, and Belgium, which will give clues on the euro area data on Tuesday next week.
In the euro area, focus today is on the September inflation data from Spain, France, and Belgium, which will give clues on the euro area data on Tuesday next week. We expect euro area HICP inflation to decline significantly to 1.8% y/y in September from 2.2% driven by both base effects on energy inflation and declining monthly energy prices. Excluding energy inflation and food, we expect core inflation remained at 2.8% y/y (0.20% m/m s.a.) due to sticky services inflation. The dip in headline inflation below 2% is expected to be temporary due to base effects and we expect inflation to rise above 2% again in November and December.
In Germany, we focus also on data on unemployment as the German labour market has weakened lately in contrast to other euro-area countries.
From the US, headline and core PCE inflation are released today, where markets see prints at +2.3% y/y and +2.7% y/y, respectively.
Although economic activity in Norway has been relatively weak over the past year, there has been only a moderate rise in unemployment. We expect that the unemployment rate increased marginally to 2.1% (seasonally adjusted) in September. Higher real wage growth and a period without rate hikes have improved the purchasing power of households, and private consumption picked up in the summer months. However, we expect that the retail trade was unchanged in August.
We are yet to see results from the Japanese ruling LDP leadership election, which will be interesting for markets due to the recent hawkish turn of the BoJ looking highly politically influenced. Abenomics loyalists preferring a slow normalisation of monetary policies as well as hawks are on the ticket in an election that will be heavily influenced by behind-the-scenes arm wrestling among party heavyweights.
Oil prices tumbled about 2.5% on the news that Saudi Arabia has allegedly abandoned its (unofficial) price target of 100 USD/bbl. and instead opt to boost production to regain market shares. Note that we have no official communication yet, but the existing OPEC+ production cuts are slated to expire on 1 December, and this will be a shift from the trend since 2022 where focus has been on cutting, rather than increasing, oil production.
The SNB cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% as we expected. Markets were close to evenly split between 25bp and 50bp, which resulted in a slight move lower in EUR/CHF upon announcement, though dovish communication caused the cross to erase losses. See more below.
In China, we got more stimulus signals with both verbal communication from the Politburo on the need for policy action to turn the economy as well as specific details on handouts and spending-vouchers, capital injection into state banks, and support for the property market. The combined package from the latest days highlights the strongest focus on ending the crisis we have seen since 2021 in our view. Chinese stocks, metal prices and the CNY continued to rally during the day.
Tokyo CPI saw core inflation at +0.19% m/m adjusted for seasonality, which is well in line with the BoJ’s target of 2% annual inflation. The so-called ‘core core’ figure, which excludes food and energy, printed at just at 0.06% m/m seasonally adjusted however, indicating somewhat softer price pressure providing downside risk for inflation, and the market reaction was initially for a slightly weaker yen. Broadly, however, the BoJ will be satisfied with the latest print, and it will likely not change the decision in October, where we expect a hold.
Equities: What a day in global equities yesterday, marked by significant global increases and an intriguing sector rotation. On one hand, China is stimulating its economy; on the other, Saudi Arabia is potentially abandoning its oil price target to regain market share. In Europe yesterday, the energy sector was down more than 3%, while the consumer discretionary sector rose by more than 5%, driven by car producers and, notably, heavyweight luxury brands. This serves as a poignant reminder for all of us to check whether our judgments are correct and for the right reasons. It’s easy to deceive oneself these days. In the US yesterday, the indices were as follows: Dow +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, and Russell 2000 +0.6%. Most Asian markets are continuing to rise this morning, once again led by significant gains in Chinese stock markets – it looks like we are on track for best week for Chinese stocks since 2008(!).
FI: There was modest movement in European government bond yields yesterday apart from the continued pressure on France, but neither the Bund ASW-spread nor the BTPS-Bund spread has widened as we saw back in June. Hence, we are not seeing the same kind of risk-off movement as we saw back in June when President Macron called a snap election. Revision of US economic data as well as lower-than-expected jobless claims sent US bond yields higher with 2Y Treasuries rising almost 10bp yesterday.
FX: EUR/USD has spent most of the last two weeks within the 1.11-1.12 interval, though with a couple of unsuccessful attempts to break out of the range. USD/JPY tried to establish above 145 but was rejected twice yesterday. The British pound continues to shine on the back of relatively solid data and tight monetary policy stance – yesterday GBP/USD made a new 2.5year high at 1.3430. The Swiss franc strengthened after the SNB cut 25bp and EUR/CHF is back trading in the mid-0.94s. EUR/NOK held on to previous gains just below 11.80, while EUR/SEK was rangebound around 11.30. USD/CNY has fallen below 7.02 in recent days on the stronger stimulus signals and likely new capital inflows to the stock market. Our medium-term view is still that the cross will resume higher as we remain bullish on the USD. But there is rising downside risk to our 7.25 12M forecast. EUR/CNY has fallen to around 7.84, the middle of the 7.70-7.95 range it has traded in for a long time now. We could see more downside in the medium term as it is expected to also get support from a lower EUR/USD. The idiosyncratic strengthening of the CNY has led to a bit of decoupling in the normal high correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CNY, but we expect it to resume when the dust settles from the recent days action.
The EUR/JPY cross witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround and tumbled around 450 pips from its highest level since August 16 set earlier this Friday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices to a fresh weekly low during the first half of the European session, though stalls near the 159.00 round-figure mark.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) rallies across the board after former Défense Chief Shigeru Ishiba beat Sanae Takaichi to become the next leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and secure the role of Japan’s Prime Minister on his fifth attempt. The news was taken positively by the JPY bulls as was the one who had been vocal in scrutinizing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for hiking rates too fast. This turned out to be a key trigger behind the initial leg of a sharp intraday downfall for the EUR/JPY cross.
The selling bias picked up pace following the release of softer consumer inflation figures from France and Spain. The preliminary data from statistics agency INSEE showed that French consumer prices rose less than anticipated and the harmonized inflation rate increased 1.5% YoY in September, down from 2.2% in the previous month. Adding to this, the flash indicator prepared by the NSI revealed that the Spanish Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to the 1.5% YoY rate from 2.3% in August.
The softer data reaffirmed market bets for at least a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next policy meeting in October. This, in turn, weighs heavily on the shared currency and further contributes to the EUR/JPY pair's downfall. Meanwhile, core inflation in Tokyo – Japan's capital – matched the BoJ's 2% target in September, which, along with the risk-on mood, caps gains for the safe-haven JPY and assists the cross to rebound to the 159.40-159.50 area.
Nevertheless, investors are still pricing in the possibility of another BoJ rate hike by the end of this year. This, in turn, favors the JPY bulls and supports prospects for a further depreciating move for the EUR/JPY cross. Even from a technical perspective, the formation of a 'Death Cross' on the daily chart – the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below the very important 200-day SMA earlier this month – validates the negative outlook and supports prospects for further losses.
Inflation in France and Spain plunged below 2% — fuelling bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will speed up the pace of interest-rate cuts.
Data on Friday showed consumer prices in France rose 1.5% from a year ago in September — sinking below 2% for the first time in more than three years mainly due to falls in energy costs. Spain saw a similar trend, with inflation easing to 1.7% on fuel, power and food.
Analysts had expected readings of 1.9% for each country.
Cooling inflation across the 20-nation bloc has allowed the ECB to lower its deposit rate twice this year, with most policymakers indicating that a gradual path down has begun. A surprise contraction in the private-sector economy, however, has boosted wagers that monetary loosening will soon be accelerated.
After Friday’s data, markets boosted bets on another quarter-point rate cut on Oct 17, now pricing a 70% chance of such a scenario.
The ECB has warned, however, that price gains in the region will probably pick up again later this year, with the retreat back to target unlikely to be fully complete until late 2025.
Officials will get a clearer picture of the situation over the coming days. Italy and Germany are set to publish data for this month on Monday, and the eurozone will do so itself on Tuesday.
For the ECB, however, headline inflation numbers have been taking a back seat to readings of price pressures in the services sector, which exceeded 4% in August and are frequently cited by hawks as grounds for prudence when cutting rates.
France’s September data also showed a moderation in services, where inflation eased to 2.5% from 3%.
Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau has said the ECB should take a gradual approach to easing policy, being as careful not to undershoot as to overshoot the 2% target. The national central bank predicts inflation in France will slow sooner than in the euro area, reaching 1.5% in on average in 2025 after 2.5% this year.
First, the latest GDP data confirmed that the US economy grew 3% in Q2 and the price pressures fell. Corporate profits rose 3.5% in Q2 versus a 1.7% gain penciled in by analysts, and up from negative 2% the quarter before! Wait, wait, wait. The initial jobless claims came in lower than expected and continuing claims fell, defying the worries of an alarmingly softening jobs market. And if you put the strong data in the context of questionably dovish Fed, the US economy will soft-land on a mountain. It will be great if – and only if – the loosening monetary policy fed to a strong economy doesn’t boost inflation.
Due today, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE index, is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% on a monthly basis, and print a small uptick – from 2.6% to 2.7% – on a yearly basis. Additionally, the personal income may have risen faster, but personal spending a bit slower than the previous month. A set of data in line with expectations will certainly keep the soft-landing vibes in play and secure a 43rd record high for the S&P500 before the weekly closing bell. But a stronger-than-expected PCE read, God Forbid, could bring the idea that the Fed and the dovish Fed expectations may have gone ahead of themselves and call for some correction. Yesterday’s robust GDP read brough the probability of 50bp cut at the November meeting slightly below 50%, but the chances are still very close to a coin toss.China’s pandora box
China announced a mix bag of monetary and fiscal measures this week to prop up its economy and bring investors back to its shattered markets. This explosive cocktail of monetary and fiscal measures was what investors were demanding since years. And the satisfaction is clear – at least in the short run. The CSI 300 index gained more than 15% since the beginning of the week. The index pulled out the May-to-date negative trending channel top, and the almost two-year bearish trend top to catapult itself into a greatly overbought territory just before the beginning of a national holiday in China, next week. Likewise, Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon index is up by 20% since the week began and broke above its own two-year downtrending channel top. Buyers were so crowded in Shanghai that Shanghai’s stock exchange encountered problems to follow up orders.
Could this euphoria last? Maybe. The structural and balance sheet challenges, heavy local debt burden, the aging population, deflation and loss of confidence are hard to reverse. Enthusiasm could fade rapidly if the economy doesn’t react. Today, all we have in hand is that the Chinese industrial profits grew 0.5% ytd in August, meaningfully down from 3.6% printed a month earlier.
WSJ reported that Saudi Arabia will drop its $100pb price target and start increasing output in December to gain market share. Ouch. This was a possibility that we were exploring since Saudi decided to shoulder production cuts by unilateral cuts. It’s finally happening now. If Saudi is not playing the production restriction game along with its OPEC peers, it will be hard for the rest of OPEC to hold on to a price-supportive strategy Concretely, if Saudi starts pumping, the others must follow to increase their revenue, as well. And that’s outright bearish for oil prices, also provided that the non-OPEC countries are pumping abundantly as well.
Voila, US crude is down to $68pb and the short-term outlook remains strongly negative.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut the interest rates by 25bp yesterday, as expected. The USDCHF barely reacted to the news but the SMI index closed the session near the highest levels since the beginning of this month. Beyond the Swiss borders, the Stoxx 600 flirted with ATH levels as the rate cut expectations in the developed world combined to the Chinese stimulus measures boosted appetite for Europe’s China and growth-sensitive stocks. LVMH jumped 10% yesterday as if the Chinese government decided to pump money directly into Louis Vuitton.
Anyway, the early CPI reads for France and Spain for September are due to be released this morning. The figures are expected to point at a further easing in price pressures. If that’s the case, we could see the 1.12 resistance strengthen before the closing bell. But the US dollar, and the PCE report will say the last word.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face selling pressure near the round-level resistance of 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session. The rally for the GBP/USD pair appears to have stalled, as investors focus on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The US core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown 2.7% on year, faster than the 2.6% increase seen in July, while on month prices are expected to have grown steadily by 0.2%.
The data is likely to influence market speculation for the Fed interest rate cuts in November. Markets are almost equally split about the US central bank lowering rates again by 50 basis points or by a smaller 25 basis points.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in November has dropped to 51% from 57% on Thursday. If the PCE data gave signs of a further slowdown in inflationary pressures, market expectations of a big cut interest rate cut would increase. On the contrary, hot inflation figures would weaken the chances of this scenario.
The significance of the US inflation data has declined recently as Fed officials seem confident that price pressures will return to the bank’s target of 2%. Also, policymakers have become more vigilant about labor market risks. Last week, the Fed started the policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00%, which signaled that officials would do whatever it takes to revive labor market strength.
The Pound Sterling performs weakly against its major peers, except the Asia-Pacific currencies, on Friday. The British currency weakens as investors turn cautious ahead of PCE inflation data.
There isn’t any top-tier United Kingdom (UK) economic data this week or the next one. Therefore, the GBP will be influenced by market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy action for the remainder of the year.
Financial market participants expect that the BoE will lower interest rates once in any of the two policy meetings remaining this year. The BoE pivoted to policy normalization with a 25-bps interest rate cut in August to 5%, but left rates unchanged in its last week’s meeting.
On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with the Kent Messenger newspaper that "the path for interest rates will be downwards, gradually,” Reuters reports. Bailey’s comments suggest that he is confident about inflation sustainably returning to the bank’s target of 2%. He didn’t provide a specific neutral rate but assured that they will not return to historic lows as seen in times of pandemic.
The Pound Sterling drops as it struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of 1.3400 against the US Dollar in European trading hours. The GBP/USD pair faced selling pressure after posting a fresh more-than-two-year high above 1.3430. The near-term outlook of the Cable remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3235 is sloping higher.
Earlier in September, the Cable strengthened after recovering from a corrective move to near the trendline plotted from the December 28, 2023, high of 1.2828, from where it delivered a sharp increase after a breakout on August 21.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tilts down but remains above 60.00, suggesting an active bullish momentum.
Looking up, the Cable will face resistance near the psychological level of 1.3500. On the downside, the 20-day EMA near 1.3235 will be the key support for Pound Sterling bulls.
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