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The S&P 500 printed its 42nd record high this year yesterday on the back of a mix bag of economic and corporate news.
First, the latest GDP data confirmed that the US economy grew 3% in Q2 and the price pressures fell. Corporate profits rose 3.5% in Q2 versus a 1.7% gain penciled in by analysts, and up from negative 2% the quarter before! Wait, wait, wait. The initial jobless claims came in lower than expected and continuing claims fell, defying the worries of an alarmingly softening jobs market. And if you put the strong data in the context of questionably dovish Fed, the US economy will soft-land on a mountain. It will be great if – and only if – the loosening monetary policy fed to a strong economy doesn’t boost inflation.
Due today, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE index, is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% on a monthly basis, and print a small uptick – from 2.6% to 2.7% – on a yearly basis. Additionally, the personal income may have risen faster, but personal spending a bit slower than the previous month. A set of data in line with expectations will certainly keep the soft-landing vibes in play and secure a 43rd record high for the S&P500 before the weekly closing bell. But a stronger-than-expected PCE read, God Forbid, could bring the idea that the Fed and the dovish Fed expectations may have gone ahead of themselves and call for some correction. Yesterday’s robust GDP read brough the probability of 50bp cut at the November meeting slightly below 50%, but the chances are still very close to a coin toss.China’s pandora box
China announced a mix bag of monetary and fiscal measures this week to prop up its economy and bring investors back to its shattered markets. This explosive cocktail of monetary and fiscal measures was what investors were demanding since years. And the satisfaction is clear – at least in the short run. The CSI 300 index gained more than 15% since the beginning of the week. The index pulled out the May-to-date negative trending channel top, and the almost two-year bearish trend top to catapult itself into a greatly overbought territory just before the beginning of a national holiday in China, next week. Likewise, Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon index is up by 20% since the week began and broke above its own two-year downtrending channel top. Buyers were so crowded in Shanghai that Shanghai’s stock exchange encountered problems to follow up orders.
Could this euphoria last? Maybe. The structural and balance sheet challenges, heavy local debt burden, the aging population, deflation and loss of confidence are hard to reverse. Enthusiasm could fade rapidly if the economy doesn’t react. Today, all we have in hand is that the Chinese industrial profits grew 0.5% ytd in August, meaningfully down from 3.6% printed a month earlier.
WSJ reported that Saudi Arabia will drop its $100pb price target and start increasing output in December to gain market share. Ouch. This was a possibility that we were exploring since Saudi decided to shoulder production cuts by unilateral cuts. It’s finally happening now. If Saudi is not playing the production restriction game along with its OPEC peers, it will be hard for the rest of OPEC to hold on to a price-supportive strategy Concretely, if Saudi starts pumping, the others must follow to increase their revenue, as well. And that’s outright bearish for oil prices, also provided that the non-OPEC countries are pumping abundantly as well.
Voila, US crude is down to $68pb and the short-term outlook remains strongly negative.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut the interest rates by 25bp yesterday, as expected. The USDCHF barely reacted to the news but the SMI index closed the session near the highest levels since the beginning of this month. Beyond the Swiss borders, the Stoxx 600 flirted with ATH levels as the rate cut expectations in the developed world combined to the Chinese stimulus measures boosted appetite for Europe’s China and growth-sensitive stocks. LVMH jumped 10% yesterday as if the Chinese government decided to pump money directly into Louis Vuitton.
Anyway, the early CPI reads for France and Spain for September are due to be released this morning. The figures are expected to point at a further easing in price pressures. If that’s the case, we could see the 1.12 resistance strengthen before the closing bell. But the US dollar, and the PCE report will say the last word.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face selling pressure near the round-level resistance of 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session. The rally for the GBP/USD pair appears to have stalled, as investors focus on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The US core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown 2.7% on year, faster than the 2.6% increase seen in July, while on month prices are expected to have grown steadily by 0.2%.
The data is likely to influence market speculation for the Fed interest rate cuts in November. Markets are almost equally split about the US central bank lowering rates again by 50 basis points or by a smaller 25 basis points.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in November has dropped to 51% from 57% on Thursday. If the PCE data gave signs of a further slowdown in inflationary pressures, market expectations of a big cut interest rate cut would increase. On the contrary, hot inflation figures would weaken the chances of this scenario.
The significance of the US inflation data has declined recently as Fed officials seem confident that price pressures will return to the bank’s target of 2%. Also, policymakers have become more vigilant about labor market risks. Last week, the Fed started the policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00%, which signaled that officials would do whatever it takes to revive labor market strength.
The Pound Sterling performs weakly against its major peers, except the Asia-Pacific currencies, on Friday. The British currency weakens as investors turn cautious ahead of PCE inflation data.
There isn’t any top-tier United Kingdom (UK) economic data this week or the next one. Therefore, the GBP will be influenced by market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy action for the remainder of the year.
Financial market participants expect that the BoE will lower interest rates once in any of the two policy meetings remaining this year. The BoE pivoted to policy normalization with a 25-bps interest rate cut in August to 5%, but left rates unchanged in its last week’s meeting.
On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with the Kent Messenger newspaper that "the path for interest rates will be downwards, gradually,” Reuters reports. Bailey’s comments suggest that he is confident about inflation sustainably returning to the bank’s target of 2%. He didn’t provide a specific neutral rate but assured that they will not return to historic lows as seen in times of pandemic.
The Pound Sterling drops as it struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of 1.3400 against the US Dollar in European trading hours. The GBP/USD pair faced selling pressure after posting a fresh more-than-two-year high above 1.3430. The near-term outlook of the Cable remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3235 is sloping higher.
Earlier in September, the Cable strengthened after recovering from a corrective move to near the trendline plotted from the December 28, 2023, high of 1.2828, from where it delivered a sharp increase after a breakout on August 21.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tilts down but remains above 60.00, suggesting an active bullish momentum.
Looking up, the Cable will face resistance near the psychological level of 1.3500. On the downside, the 20-day EMA near 1.3235 will be the key support for Pound Sterling bulls.
NZD/USD retraces its recent gains, trading around 0.6300 during the European hours on Friday. This downside is attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) amid market caution ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August. The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
On the data front, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized increased at a rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, as estimated, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday. Meanwhile, the GDP Price Index rose 2.5% in the second quarter.
Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218K, according to the US Department of Labor (DoL). This figure came in below the initial consensus of 225K and was lower than the previous week's revised number of 222K (previously reported as 219K).
However, the US Dollar might have received downward pressure following the dovish remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. According to Reuters, Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Thursday that she supported last week's 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut, citing increased "downside risks" to employment.
On the Kiwi front, the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching 95.1 points in September, up from the previous reading of 92.2. This marked the highest reading since January 2022.
However, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under pressure due to growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates again in October, with markets pricing in a 67% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Investors currently anticipate the 5.25% cash rate to decline to 2.83% by the end of 2025.
Crude oil prices were trending down earlier today, extending a two-day losing streak as bearish news crowded out any bullish signals.
Earlier in the week, news emerged that the rival governments in Libya had struck an agreement about the appointment of a new central bank governor, signaling oil production and exports would soon return to normal, alleviating supply squeeze concerns.
The latest blow to prices came from Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, the FT reported citing unnamed sources that the kingdom considered dropping its oil price target of $100 per barrel and instead focusing on regaining lost market share by boosting supply.
The price target is not official but it is the level that the IMF earlier this year said Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be in order to balance its budget. This balance is based on all the high-ticket projects that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is spearheading as a way of diversifying the local economy away from oil.
The FT report suggests the Saudi leadership has rearranged its priorities and is now resigned to lower prices for longer.
The effect of the Saudi news was amplified later on Thursday when Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia planned to stay on course with OPEC+ plans, meaning it would start bringing some supply back in December, like Saudi Arabia.
The OPEC+ alliance is not discussing any proposals for changes to its current oil production plan, which envisages the group starting to add supply to the market in December, Novak told media, suggesting other members of the group were also resigned to lower prices and were about to prioritize market share now.
“The big-ticket items on the market's radar this week have been Libya and OPEC+,” FGE Energy said, as quoted by Reuters, as Brent crude looked set to end the week close to 5% lower than where it started it, and West Texas Intermediate was on course to book a loss of over 6%.
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