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Having delivered the first Bank Rate cut of the cycle at the August meeting, the MPC are likely to stand pat this time around, instead waiting for the November meeting, and forecast round, before further removing policy restriction.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues trading in its established range just below its all-time high on Thursday, as traders await more US inflation data, this time in the form of “factory gate” price inflation, or the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August. The data could further impact expectations regarding the trajectory of US interest rates, which in turn will likely impact both the price of Gold and the US Dollar (USD).
In addition, Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting could further impact Gold price, depending on how much easing the ECB decides to implement. The bank will also republish its economic projections, with fears it could radically revise down economic growth and inflation forecasts for the region in light of recent downbeat data from Germany, the largest member of the bloc.
Market sentiment turns positive, meanwhile, after Asian stocks rose overnight, commodities rebounded, and European bourses clock gains. The upbeat mood is likely to weigh on safe-haven Gold.
Gold price weakened on Wednesday, falling from the range highs to a low of around $2,500 after the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August showed a higher-than-expected uptick in core CPI of 0.3% versus expectations of 0.2% and 0.2% previously.
The stickier-than-expected core CPI led traders to downgrade the probabilities of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by a larger 0.50% at their meeting next week, with expectations rising for a more cautious 0.25% cut instead.
The data lifted the US Dollar but weighed on Gold as the expectation that interest rates might remain elevated for longer reduces the attractiveness of non-interest-paying assets, like Gold.
The release of PPI data on Thursday, as well as the conclusion of the ECB policy meeting, could further calibrate expectations regarding the future course of interest rates globally – a key driver for Gold.
US Jobless Claims data could also influence the trajectory of the yellow metal given the Fed’s focus on the weakening labor market.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades back in the middle of its multi-week sideways range after briefly retesting the all-time high of $2,531 on Wednesday.
As seen from the chart below, Gold price has tested the ceiling of the range on multiple occasions (orange-shaded circles) and, according to technical analysis theory, this suggests that if it does eventually break through, the move will be volatile.
XAU/USD 4-hour Chart
The longer-term trend for Gold is bullish, and since “the trend is your friend,” this increases the odds of an eventual breakout higher materializing.
The precious metal has an as-yet unreached bullish target at $2,550, generated after the original breakout from the July-August range on August 14. If Gold breaks above the range highs, it will probably rapidly reach its goal.
A break above the August 20 all-time high of $2,531 would provide more confirmation of a continuation higher toward the $2,550 target.
The short-term trend is now sideways, however, so it is also quite possible the yellow metal will continue trading up and down within its multi-week range between the $2,480s and the $2,531 record high.
If Gold closes below $2,460 it would change the picture and bring the bullish bias into question.
Crude Oil pops over 1.50% for a second day in a row after booking over 1.50% gains on Wednesday, which was the biggest daily gain for Crude Oil in two weeks. The uptick comes amid increasing concerns over the impact of tropical storm Francine on US production and after the most recent OPEC report – which cut the outlook for Oil demand – was deemed unrealistic considering recent US and global economic activity.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is stronger and tests the upper band of its tight bandwidth in which it has been trading for over two weeks. The stronger Greenback emerged after US Consumer Price Index data revealed a surprise uptick in the monthly core measure. That closed the door for a 50-basis-point rate cut from the US Federal Reserve next week, supporting the US Dollar.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, which showed that the recent outage from Libya triggered a 70,000 barrels per day decline in OPEC’s daily output. Supply from Libya declined by 180,000 barrels per day to 980,000, Bloomberg reported.
The IEA also reported that supply from the Gulf producers was largely steady, with Saudi output unchanged at 9.01 million barrels per day, Iraq at 4.38 million b/d, UAE at 3.3 million b/d and Kuwait at 2.52 million b/d, Reuters reports.
In the US, tropical storm Francine has hit the coast of Louisiana, reaching a Category 2 strength. Oil and gas companies had previously evacuated offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, Reuters reported.
Crude Oil price is set for volatility, and it has no one other than OPEC to thank for it. Still, the chances for more downside look higher than the potential for rebound. Should OPEC tweak its policy and prolong production cuts, or broaden them, markets could interpret it as a sign of weakness and perceive it as the situation is far more dire than anticipated. In case it does nothing, markets will likely remain focused on oversupply.
Oil has a long road to recovery ahead before heading back above $75. First up is $67.11, which needs to see a daily close above at least. Once that level gets reclaimed, $70.00 gets back on the table with $71.46 as the first level to look out for. Ultimately, a return to $75.27 is still possible, but would likely come due to a seismic shift in current balances.
The next level further down the line is $64.38, the low from March and May 2023. Should that level face a second test and snap, $61.65 becomes a target, with of course $60.00 as a psychologically big figure just below it, at least tempting to be tested.
US presidential contender Donald Trump's plan to hike tariffs on imports if he is elected back to the White House in November would send cargo rates soaring and accelerate inflation, just like it did during his 2017-21 term, shipping and retail experts said.
Trump, who is running against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov 5 election, has floated second-term plans for blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% on virtually all imports as well as tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China, in a bid to boost US manufacturing.
In their debate on Tuesday, Harris called his proposal a "Trump sales tax" that will hurt working families, and has not released her own plan for tariffs. President Joe Biden has delayed implementing a proposed quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%, and a doubling of duties on semiconductors and solar cells to 50%. He had also proposed new 25% tariffs on lithium-ion batteries, steel and other goods.
"Trump's import tariffs are 'history repeating' and will cause a spike in ocean container shipping markets — with consumers picking up the cost," said Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping pricing platform Xeneta.
The National Retail Federation, which represents Walmart and other companies that account for almost half of container shipping volume, is among the industry groups opposed to Trump's proposed tariffs.
"Tariffs are a tax on imports, operating like a sales tax wearing a mediocre disguise," NRF said earlier this week, noting that they drive up cost of goods for consumers and hurt workers and businesses.
"We're the poster child of how tariffs did not keep domestic production in place," said Matt Priest, CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, pointing out that 99% of shoes are now imported.
"We will be out there engaging with policy members and discussing how tariffs are paid by American consumers."
Ocean container shipping market rates spiked more than 70% after the Trump Administration announced new tariffs in 2018. The off-contract spot rate to ship a 40-foot (12.19-metre) container on the busy trade route from China to the US West Coast jumped 75% to US$2,604 between Jan 1 and Nov 1 that year, Xeneta said.
The tariffs also disrupted supply chains as shippers fought for extra cargo space on vessels, trucks and trains, while the landed goods swamped ports and warehouses, leading to higher prices for everything from furniture and footwear to steel.
Ocean freight rates are already elevated due to ongoing Iran-backed Houthi attacks on ships near the Suez Canal trade shortcut. That pressure, combined with a recent surge in holiday goods and industrial material imports recently sent the cost to ferry a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York to US$10,000.
EUR/USD struggles near more than a three-week low, around 1.1000 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair remains on tenterhooks, with investors focusing on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT. The ECB is widely anticipated to cut the Rate On Deposit Facility by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5%.
This will be the second interest rate cut by the ECB in its current policy easing cycle, which it started in June after gaining confidence that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone will return to the central bank’s target of 2% in 2025. The ECB left its key borrowing rates steady in July as officials seemed worried that an aggressive monetary stance could revamp price pressures again.
Market speculation for the ECB reducing interest rates on Thursday strengthened due to a sharp decline in Eurozone price pressures and growing risks to Germany’s economic growth, the largest nation of the old continent. The German economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year and is exposed to a recession due to a poor demand environment.
Given that the ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates again on Thursday, investors will keenly focus on cues about the interest rate cut path. “The ECB is unlikely to offer enough information through forward guidance or new economic forecasts to justify another rate cut in October,” “Our house view remains 25bp rate cuts today and December 12”, said Chris Turner, analyst at ING.
EUR/USD remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) refreshes its weekly high during European trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to nearly 101.80. The Greenback gains further as signs of stickiness in the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August forced traders to pare bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start reducing interest rates this month aggressively.
Wednesday’s CPI data showed that the annual core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose by 3.2%, as expected. The monthly core CPI rose by 0.3%, faster than estimates and the prior release of 0.2%. However, the annual headline CPI grew by 2.5%, slower than the expected 2.6% and July’s print of 2.9% due to lower energy prices. Historically, Fed officials give more weightage to core inflation as it excludes those volatile items, which are guided by global and environmental forces.
The sticky US core inflation data cemented market expectations for the Fed to begin reducing its key borrowing rates gradually. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% in September has diminished to 13% from 40% a week ago.
In Thursday’s session, market participants will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August and the Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 6, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The significance of the jobless claims data has increased as recent comments from an array of Fed officials signal that the central bank has become more concerned about reviving job growth.
EUR/USD trades at make or a break near 1.1000 ahead of the ECB’s interest rate policy decision. The pair has corrected to near the upper line of a Rising Channel formation in the daily timeframe, from where it delivered a breakout on August 14, which resulted in a sharp upside move. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1047 acts as a major resistance for the Euro bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls further below 50.00, suggesting that the near-term outlook is uncertain.
The pair continues to hold the psychological level of 1.1000. A downside move below the same would drag the asset toward the July 17 high near 1.0950. On the upside, last week’s high of 1.1155 and the round-level resistance of 1.1200 will act as major barricades for the Euro bulls.
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