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The bad news is that we must wait one more month before finding out its Q3 results, but the good news is that the earnings from TSM will give a first hint on the strength of the upcoming numbers already this week.
The S&P 500 hit its 46th record high of the year on Monday, defying the recent and uncomfortable combination of stronger-than-expected jobs and higher-than-expected inflation numbers that hint that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should slow down the pace of whatever policy easing plan it had in head a month ago. The index traded at 5871, Nvidia erased all the summer weakness and flirted with ATH levels as well after the company CEO Jensen Huang said that the next generation Blackwell chip – which suffered some delay – is now ‘in full production’ and that the demand for it ‘is insane’. Nvidia is probably not done surprising and thriving. The bad news is that we must wait one more month before finding out its Q3 results, but the good news is that the earnings from TSM will give a first hint on the strength of the upcoming numbers already this week.
And speaking of surprising, the earnings season kicked off well for the big US banks that announced their earnings so far. And beyond banks, around 6% of the S&P500 companies revealed their earnings and nearly 80% reported a positive EPS surprise according to FactSet. And positive vibes could continue as we dive deeper into the earnings season. If nothing, analysts cut their earnings expectations for the Q3 gradually to around 4% growth, whereas this expectation was near 8% in summer. Yet the companies themselves have a guidance for about 16% growth in earnings. The gap hints that the actual earnings could easily beat estimates. And better-than-expected estimates is the valuations’ best friend.
Today, Goldman, Bank of America and Citigroup will go to the earnings confessional, tomorrow Morgan Stanley, again tomorrow ASML, then on Thursday we will focus on TSM and Netflix results. Voila. Fasten your seat belt.Fading optimism
Enthusiasm around the Chinese stimulus measures fade, as investors digest the fact that the Chinese authorities didn’t give a headline number about what they expect to spend to prop up their economy.
Whatever the plans, the Chinese authorities have not been good at communicating with investors and that will probably lead to some more profit taking in Chinese equities; vulnerability to potentially soft data is also growing with the fading enthusiasm. The CSI 300 is down by around 0.50% this morning, as Hang Seng is down by 1.34%. Copper futures come down gradually on fading China optimism, as iron ore futures consolidate in Singapore.
Crude oil, on the other hand, kicked off the week with a 4% decline. US crude took out the 50-DMA support and slipped below the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement that distinguishes between the summer negative trend and the latest bullish reversal. As such, US crude is back to the negative trend on fading optimism that China will succeed to boost growth with its stimulus measures and on softer demand prospects for the global oil demand. In fact, OPEC just trimmed its forecast for demand growth for the third straight month, and said that the global demand will grow less than 2% this year, and around 1.6% next year. The fact that OPEC is lowering its demand forecast could bring more delays to the cartel’s production restoration plans. But the recent reports suggested that Saudi is more willing to grab market share rather than chase a higher price per barrel. Consequently, the medium-term demand/supply dynamics remain in favour of the bears with one bemol: the Middle East tensions could trigger sudden, short-term price spikes. And that fear alone could limit oil’s downside potential. The next support for US crude is seen at $70pb level.
The US dollar extends gains as the combination of better-than-expected jobs and higher-than-expected inflation figures continue to push the Fed doves to the sidelines. The Fed is still expected to offer another 25bp to the US economy next month, but given the economic data of late, if these expectations were to take another direction, it would rather be in favour of a no cut. The US dollar index has regained half of its summer losses and is presently drilling above its 100-DMA. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably positive for a further recovery, but the overbought market conditions call for a period of consolidation of the gains before a further advance.
From the fundamental lenses, the dollar’s recent rebound makes sense as the Fed doves move aside, and other central bank doves gain field. The USDJPY, for example, is back to testing the 150 offers since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) considers no more interest rate hikes this year since its new PM said there was no need for further hikes.
The EURUSD reflects the misery of its underlying fundamentals. The stagnating German economy, topped off with a sour French outlook downgrade from Fitch, dragged the EURUSD down to 1.0888. The pair now stands a few pips above the next natural target of 200-DMA, near the 1.0875 level, and the euro bears could swallow it in one bite.
Elsewhere, the USDCAD just reached the 1.38 mark on the back of a broadly stronger US dollar and falling oil prices, while the Aussie bulls are giving in against a broadly stronger US dollar, as optimism around China is no longer enough to fuel the recent rally. The Aussie bears are gaining field below the major 38.2% Fibonacci level, which hints at a medium-term bearish reversal and the growing possibility of deeper losses.
Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose by an annual 30.5% in September, as China surpassed its record numbers recorded in August and Europe resumed growth, market research firm Rho Motion said on Tuesday.
Gains in the U.S. market have been slow and steady in anticipation of the Nov. 5 election, which makes it difficult to predict future trends in the country, data manager Charles Lester told Reuters.
Chinese carmakers are seeking to grow their sales in the EU despite import duties of up to 45% and amid cooling global demand for electric cars. Chinese and European automakers were going head-to-head at the Paris car show on Monday.
EVs - whether fully electric (BEV) or plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) - sold worldwide reached 1.69 million in September, Rho Motion data showed.
Sales in China jumped 47.9% in September and reached 1.12 million vehicles, while in the United States and Canada they were up 4.3% to 0.15 million.
In Europe, EV sales rose 4.2% to 0.3 million units, thanks to a 24% jump in the United Kingdom and gains in Italy, Germany and Denmark, Lester said.
In the Chinese market, the penetration rate of BEV and PHEV is growing faster than some expected and sales "could be a record every month until the end of the year", Lester said.
He added that Germany's 7% year-on-year growth was "definitely positive news", and that intermediate carbon emission reduction goals set in the EU for next year will test the bloc's market.
Rho Motion expects EV sales in Europe to reach 3.78 million vehicles in 2025 and 9.78 million in 2030, respectively 24% and 19% lower than in previous estimates, automotive research lead William Roberts told Reuters.
Singapore’s former oil tycoon Lim Oon Kuin will be sentenced on Nov 18 for cheating and forgery in a trading scandal that will go into the history books as one of the biggest in the global energy-trading hub.
In a Singapore court on Tuesday, public prosecutor Christopher Ong argued for a 20-year jail sentence for Lim on three counts including instigating forgery and deceiving HSBC Holdings plc. Lim’s defence lawyers led by Davinder Singh sought a 7-year period.
The 82-year-old known as OK Lim arrived in court in a wheelchair.
The sentence is the latest development in the dramatic downfall of Lim, founder of now-defunct oil company Hin Leong Trading Pte. Lim filed for bankruptcy this week after agreeing to pay US$3.59 billion (RM15.46 billion) to the liquidators and creditor HSBC to resolve multi-year civil lawsuits against him and his family.
In 2020, Bloomberg News was the first to report that at least two lenders had frozen credit lines to Hin Leong, citing concerns over the company’s ability to repay its debts. In the months that followed, it emerged that Lim had hid hundreds of millions in losses speculating in oil futures and sold inventories that were pledged as collateral for loans.
Lim, better known as O K Lim, founded Hin Leong in 1973 as an oil distributor with one truck. Over the years, he expanded the family-run company into Singapore’s largest independent oil trader with interests from bunkering to storage.
In its heyday, the homegrown trading house was widely respected as one of the boldest and most secretive traders of diesel and shipping fuel. The company, which owned a stake in storage tanks in Singapore as well as its own vessel fleet, was able to corner the market with its knowledge of inventories in and around the hub, cementing its position as one of the region’s top players.
A plunge in oil prices in 2020, however, sent Lim’s empire tumbling down. He had initially faced 130 charges after his firm was accused of hiding more than US$800 million in losses and leaving more than 20 banks with huge liabilities.
Hin Leong’s case has tarnished Singapore’s hard-earned reputation as a leading hub for energy trading and financing, and dented public confidence in the city-state, said prosecutor Ong. He described the scandal as “unprecedented” in the country’s history, a label that Lim’s lawyer Singh passionately argued against, citing more severe offences and losses in previous cases including one involving Agritrade International Pte.
In recent years, Singapore has been rocked by numerous commodity trading and financing scandals. From Agritrade to Noble Group Ltd and ZenRock Commodities Trading Pte to Hontop Energy (Singapore) Pte Ltd, issues surrounding fraud and forgery around paperwork that form the backbone of commodity financing have come to the fore, implicating dozens of banks including HSBC, DBS Group Holdings Ltd and CIMB Bank.
Lim and his family have been seeking to raise money by selling assets including property and business holdings in recent years. Singh, who’s representing Lim, highlighted his client’s state of health and the potential effects of a jail sentence on the octogenarian.
India’s unregulated grey market is indicating that the excitement around Hyundai Motor India Ltd’s US$3.3 billion (RM14.22 billion) initial public offering — poised to be the country’s biggest ever — is cooling.
Shares of Hyundai Motor Co’s unit traded Monday at a premium of just 60 rupees (RM3.07) over 1,960 rupees apiece — the high end of its IPO price range — in India’s grey market, according to investors who participate in the market. That’s versus a premium of as high as 1,000 rupees about two weeks ago, the traders said.
The carmaker’s share sale bolsters the country’s reputation as one of the busiest markets for equity capital-raising this year. But fickle demand from individual investors for its shares also reflects challenges the firm will face in a competitive market rife with incentives and price cuts as the pandemic-driven demand surge cools.
“The initial euphoria is over,” said Gaurav Thakker, a Mumbai-based trader who trades in IPO shares. “Just ahead of the launch of the IPO, we had a warlike situation in the Middle East. Same time, automobile sales in India have been lacklustre, which has impacted expectations for Hyundai’s listing gains.”
In unregulated grey market trading, investors enter into informal contracts to trade shares at a predetermined price before their actual debut. The change in sentiment around Hyundai Motor India is reminiscent of the 2022 debut of Life Insurance Corp. of India, whose US$2.7 billion IPO was the biggest in the country at the time. The state-run insurer’s shares had traded at discount in the grey market ahead of their debut and slumped on the first day of trading despite investors’ strong response.
Hyundai Motor’s shares are scheduled to begin trading in Mumbai starting Oct 22. The Indian unit is not issuing any new shares. But its Korean parent Hyundai Motor plans to sell as many as 142.2 million shares of the unit, or a 17.5% stake. At the top end of the price band, the company, already the second-biggest carmaker by sales in India, would be valued at about US$19 billion.
The entire IPO proceeds will go to the parent, which has not clarified how they will be used. Earlier this year, Hyundai Motor announced plans to spend as much as US$3 billion on buying back its Seoul-listed shares.
Still, most brokerages have recommended Hyundai Motor India’s shares. The company would benefit from its parent’s support and commitment for expansion in India, Aditya Birla Money Ltd analyst Mihir Manek wrote in a note.
But its “rich” valuation, at the upper price band, is at 26 times its fiscal 2024 earnings per share, Manek noted. That leaves “little on the table for investors,” he said.
Following a quiet start to the week, the US Dollar (USD) gathered strength and managed to build on the previous week's gains, with the USD Index reaching its highest level since early August above 103.00 on Monday. The US economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases on Tuesday. Eurostat will publish Industrial Production data for August and Germany's ZEW economic research institute will release October sentiment data for the Eurozone and Germany. Finally, Statistics Canada will release September Consumer Price Index figures later in the American session. In the second half of the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches.
The data from Japan showed on Tuesday that Industrial Production contracted by 3.3% on a monthly basis in August, matching the market expectation. Meanwhile, Kyodo News Agency reported that Prime Minister Shigeru Isihiba said that his government aims to compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, projected to exceed last year's 13.1 trillion yen ($87.6 billion). After posting small gains on Monday, USD/JPY edges lower early Tuesday and trades below 149.50.
EUR/USD turned south in the American session on Monday and dropped below 1.0900 for the first time in over two months. The pair struggles to hold its ground in the European morning and stays below this level.
USD/CAD extended its winning streak into a ninth consecutive trading day on Monday. Ahead of the Canadian inflation report, the pair clings to small daily gains slightly above 1.3800 early Tuesday.
The UK's Office for National Statistics announced on Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate eased to 4.0% in the three months to August, following July’s 4.1% reading. Additional details of the report showed the Employment Change data for August arrived at 373K, compared to 265k reported in July. Furthermore, Average Earnings excluding Bonus in the UK rose 4.9% 3M YoY in August versus a 5.1% growth seen in July. GBP/USD showed no immediate reaction to these figures and was last seen moving sideways at around 1.3050.
Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. XAU/USD extends its sideways grind near $2,650 in the European morning.
Kbank expects to raise over 1 trillion won ($734 million) through its upcoming initial public offering (IPO) scheduled for Oct. 30, the bank's CEO Choi Woo-hyung said, Tuesday. He stated that these funds will be focused strategically on three key areas — retail banking, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) lending and platform development — in order to accelerate the bank’s growth.
“We plan to use the capital raised from the IPO to advance three key growth strategies — retail banking, SME lending and platform development — as well as enhance risk management and technology,” Choi said during a press conference in Seoul.
“By doing so, Kbank aims to further promote inclusive finance and drive financial innovation.”
The high-profile IPO of the nation’s first internet-only bank consists of a total of 82 million shares, with the expected offering price per share ranging from 9,500 won to 12,000 won.
Based on the upper end of this range, the total amount raised through the IPO is expected to reach 984 billion won.
Once the listing on the country’s main KOSPI exchange is completed, the 725 billion won raised from the previous paid-in capital increase will also be recognized as part of its capital when calculating the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) capital adequacy ratio. As a result, the bank expects a capital inflow effect exceeding 1 trillion won from the listing.
The company will finalize its IPO price this Friday. There will be a public subscription from Monday to Tuesday. The listing date is set for Oct. 30.
Choi said that in the retail sector, Kbank plans to launch competitive demand deposit accounts and specialized deposit products tailored to customer needs, noting that this strategy will help the bank establish an efficient funding structure.
The bank intends to further expand its business loan portfolio in the small office and home office (SOHO) and SME markets.
Additionally, the firm is pursuing a so-called "open ecosystem strategy," which focuses on building partnership ecosystems through collaborations with leading companies in various industries, rather than relying on specific large platforms or affiliates. This approach aims to expand its platform business effectively.
Choi highlighted that the bank has introduced a variety of innovative non-face-to-face financial products, including the country’s first fully online apartment mortgage, since its launch in April 2017.
The firm has experienced rapid growth in both its customer base and deposits. It has a total of 12.04 million customers as of September this year, while its deposit balance stood at approximately 22 trillion won and loan balance at 16 trillion won, as of the first half of this year.
It achieved its first profit in 2021 and has maintained a streak of three consecutive years of profitability. In the first half of this year alone, the bank reported a net profit of 85.4 billion won, marking the highest performance for a half-year period in its history.
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