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The recent movements in the Swiss franc have sparked considerable interest among market analysts, presenting a somewhat perplexing situation.
“The joke has been told, everybody knows the punchline, and they’ve just gone straight to the punchline, and it is just not funny anymore,” Glassnode lead analyst James Check said in an Aug. 29 episode of the Rough Consensus podcast.
Analyzing trader behavior during the 2021 bull run and comparing it to 2024, Check said traders have tried to outsmart the market by jumping straight to buying the most hyped memecoins as quickly as possible.
In past bull runs, memecoins would typically surge toward the end of a broader market rally, but this time around the assets have been rallying faster than ever before.
“In 2021, we had the everything bubble, where it was this beautiful capital waterfall, Bitcoin, Ethereum, L1s, DeFi, all the way down to monkey JPEGs,” Check explained. He noted that many crypto natives had now learnt the quickest way to make the most money was to “buy the most stupid coin.”
Check claimed that following the approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETF) on Jan. 10, traders began taking advantage of the sharp uptick in the price of Bitcoin to swing for the fences on memecoins.
Instead of buying app utility tokens or other assets higher up the risk curve, “they went straight to PEPE token.”
Notably, PEPE (PEPE) posted staggering gains throughout the first half of 2024, with a select few traders making eye-watering profits. On May 15, one savvy PEPE trader made $46 million in profit, a whopping 15,718-fold return on his initial $3,000 investment in April.
However, despite the price of PEPE and other major memecoins such as Dogwifhat (WIF) soaring, Check said “there was this gap in the middle where no one touched anything.”
On the other hand, other traders and analysts interpret the dwindling prices of altcoins and lower-than-anticipated trading volumes as a bullish signal for future price action.
On Aug. 29, crypto trader Luke Martin told his 331,500 X followers that “altcoins currently at the ‘sell your house to buy more’ level.”
Martin said that when Bitcoin was at this level in the summer of 2020, the price surged sixfold in the second half of the year.
“Price went vertical from 10k to 60k over the next 6 months,” Martin said.
UK house prices fell unexpectedly in August, a sign affordability remained stretched even after the Bank of England (BOE) eased borrowing costs, according to one of the top mortgage lenders.
Nationwide Building Society said its index of house prices declined 0.2%, the first drop since April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.2% increase.
The figures suggest an uneven recovery is under way after last year’s dip. While the BOE cut rates for the first time since the pandemic on Aug 1 and living standards are rising, many first-time buyers are still finding it hard to get onto the housing ladder after years of house prices outpacing wages.
Mortgage rates are still triple their level in 2021 and BOE inflation-fighters are expected to take a cautious approach to cutting rates — markets are only fully pricing in one more reduction this year. Greater supply is giving price-sensitive buyers more bargaining power.
The average cost of a home last month was £265,375 (RM1.51 million), up 2.4% from a year earlier — the fastest annual pace since December 2022. However, values are still 3% below their all-time high in the summer of the same year.
“While house price growth and activity remain subdued by historic standards, they nevertheless present a picture of resilience in the context of the higher interest rate environment and where house prices remain high relative to average earnings,” said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide.
“Providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth.”
Surveys suggest the overall outlook for the housing market this year remains positive — a prospect few predicted at the end of 2023 after a spike in borrowing costs intensified the cost-of-living crisis and tipped the economy into recession.
Buyers are now feeling more confident about their financial situation. Wages are rising faster than consumer prices, economic growth has been stronger than forecast this year and the BOE has hinted at further rate cuts. Policymakers are expected to hold rates at 5% when they meet this month but markets are betting on another reduction in November, and a chance of a further cut by the end of the year.
Mortgage costs have been falling since June in anticipation of the BOE cutting rates. The average rate on a two-year fixed deal is now 5.58%, down from around 6% earlier in the summer, according to Moneyfacts.
“Financial markets are pricing in another cut this year and as mortgage rates fall this autumn, it should underpin transactions and modest single-digit price growth, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.
In separate reports , Rightmove plc said buyers stepped up their search for property, encouraged in part by the end of political uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a landslide victory in the July 4 general election. Zoopla meanwhile said buyer demand was rising and estate agents had more property on their books than at any time in seven years.
In Australia, the latest Monthly CPI Indicator reported an easing in both headline and underlying (trimmed mean) inflation, from 3.8%yr and 4.1%yr in June to 3.5%yr and 3.8%yr in July respectively, broadly in line with expectations. The onset of cost-of-living relief measures were crucial to the latest step-down, as the impact of Commonwealth energy rebates and various state-based measures start to emerge in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Household electricity prices fell 6.4% in the month, and with policy support to the rest of the states set to follow in August, further declines in electricity prices will be seen in ahead.
As these measures continue to supress headline inflation over the period ahead, the RBA’s focus, from a decision-making perspective, will remain centred on trimmed mean inflation. In a deep-dive earlier this week, we discussed the similarities between our own and the RBA’s view on the likely path for core inflation and the differences on perspectives around wages growth and its implications.
In the run-up to Q2 GDP next week, we also received two partial indicators of business investment.
Construction activity was broadly flat in Q2, lifting just 0.1% higher, although revisions have added roughly 1.3 percentage points to growth in construction of the year to March 2024. The slowdown in private construction activity is still clearly evident, having initially presented via residential construction to now capture non-residential and infrastructure works too. The public sector is providing somewhat of an offset as critical infrastructure projects move into development, following the boost to the pipeline from recent Federal and State Government budgets, seeing construction activity – albeit not growing – remain at a high level.
The Q2 CAPEX survey subsequently reported a significant downside surprise, declining 2.2% in Q2. The decline was centred on building and structures, down 3.8%, while spending on machinery and equipment fell 0.5%, the non-mining sector being the chief culprit behind the weakness across both segments. On spending intentions, the survey suggests that businesses are still certainly looking to invest in order to build capacity and alleviate constraints, but perhaps not to the same degree of absolute confidence that was seen over the past two years. The third estimate for 2024/25 CAPEX plans was up 8.2% compared to the third estimate a year ago which in our view, implies a 6.4% rise in nominal CAPEX spending over the financial year, or roughly 3.25% on an inflation-adjusted basis (versus 5.25% at the time of the second estimate).
Offshore, there were few releases during the week but conditions across the manufacturing sector signal weak activity ahead.
In July, durable goods orders rose 9.9%mth rebounding from a decline of –6.9% in June. However, this was driven by the often-volatile transportation category, with ex-transport orders falling –0.2%. Looking ahead to August, the regional Fed surveys point to further downside risks for activity.
The Dallas Fed Index rose to –9.7 index points, the highest since January 2023. That said, it remains around 13pts below its 10-year pre-prenademic average. In the details, the ‘number of employees’ component fell back into the red at –0.7, almost 9 points below the historic average. The sub-components concerning wages, prices paid and prices received all lifted to remain above their historic averages; the latter two, however, suggest some degree of ongoing margin squeeze in the sector.
The Richmond Fed Index fell to –19 index points marking three months of declines. The ‘number of employees’ component fell for both current and expected conditions. This is consistent with other indicators showing emerging softness in the labour market. Manufacturers’ hiring decisions reflect the demure demand outlook.
Looking at the broader economy, Q2 GDP was revised up from 2.8% to 3.0% in annualised terms., driven by stronger consumption (2.9% from 2.3% annualised previously). Despite this, annualised Q2 core PCE inflation was revised down a touch from 2.9% to 2.8% annualised. While notable, the revision is unlikely to sway the FOMC from a cut in September. Forward-looking and more timely data still points to downside risks for the labour market and growth.
Citigroup Inc’s currency strategists are standing behind their call that the US dollar will rally into the presidential election — even as the currency heads towards its steepest monthly drop since December.
The bank’s foreign-exchange strategy team highlighted the potential for the greenback to rally against a basket of emerging and developed market currencies — from the euro to the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso — as traders factor in the potential fallout of a victory by Donald Trump in the November vote.
The impacts of the election have so far been overshadowed by anticipation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next month, which has given investors incentive to shift cash out of the US as bond yields come down.
In Europe, US protectionist policies could jolt German manufacturing, drive disinflation and affect trade with China.
“Markets are forward looking, and we expect any USD strength on the back of the election will be priced in well before the event, and we may see the high in the USD into November,” Tobon and his team said.
Earlier this summer there was a flurry of interest in the so-called “Trump Trade” — in which traders positioned for higher bond yields and a stronger dollar on the view that a second Trump administration would prove inflationary. But it has waned in recent weeks as Vice President Kamala Harris shook up the race and erased Trump’s advantage in opinion polls.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar has meanwhile fallen some 1.7% in August, on pace for its worst month this year, as traders braced for the Fed’s pivot. And the Citi strategists cautioned that the economy could play the dominant role in shaping the dollar’s direction.
“The dovish pivot from the Fed has actually been weighing on the USD recently, directly opposed to our stronger USD view on elections,” the Citi strategists wrote. “How the US economy continues to develop – and what that means for Fed pricing – will be potentially more important than the election if the repricing remains aggressive.”
Looking under the hood, an upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% q/q vs. prior 2.3% q/q) was largely responsible for last quarter’s upgrade. Spending on both goods (3.0% q/q vs. prior 2.5% q/q) and services (2.2% q/q vs prior 2.8% q/q) were revised higher. Meanwhile, non-residential investment saw a modest downward revision to 4.6% q/q, thanks to downgrades in both equipment spending (10.6% q/q vs. prior 11.6% q/q) and intellectual property products (2.6% q/q vs. prior 4.5% q/q).
Government spending was reported to have expanded by 2.7% q/q, with healthy gains from both the federal (+3.3% q/q) and state & local (2.3% q/q) level.
Net exports shaved 0.8 pp from Q2 growth (unchanged from the prior estimate), though this was entirely offset by an equal gain in inventory investment.
Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) rose by 1.3% q/q in the second quarter, matching Q1’s gain. Corporate profits were up 7.0% (annualized) or $57.6 billion after accounting for inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. The ratio of corporate profits to nominal GDP ticked up 0.1 pp to 12.0%.
The average of GDP and GDI, a supplemental estimate of domestic production, rose 2.1% q/q in the second quarter or slightly weaker than the pace of growth suggested by the expenditure GDP data.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of Q2 GDP saw a very modest upward revision relative to the preliminary reading. Overall, the economy continued to show ongoing resilience through the second quarter, as evidenced by the breadth of gains across domestic drivers. Final domestic demand (i.e., the sum of consumer spending, fixed investment, and government outlays) rose by a healthy 2.9% in Q2 and averaged 2.8% through the first half of the year – largely unchanged from H2-2023’s 3.1%.
That said, there was at least some evidence in the report to suggest that the economy’s resilience will soon start to wane. For starters, the uptick in Q2 PCE was driven by a rebound in goods spending, which we do not expect to continue, particularly given the recent softening in labor market fundamentals. Second, the sharp acceleration in equipment outlays can largely be traced back to a surge in aircraft purchases last quarter and is unlikely to be repeated in Q3. Lastly, the gain in federal spending was the result of a notable bump in national defense outlays, which is also likely to mean revert over the coming quarters.
All that to say, we appear to be in a goldilocks scenario where growth is likely to gradually edge lower through the second half of the year, allowing inflation to drift closer to the Fed’s 2% target. This should enable the FOMC to cut its policy rate by at least 75 basis points by year-end.
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