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How a second Trump term threatens the independence of our central bank.
U.S. fiscal health is expected to deteriorate further as political polarization makes it hard for any new presidential administration to negotiate steps needed to reduce the national debt burden, according to ratings agency Moody's.
The U.S. sovereign fiscal profile is likely to weaken under either of the candidates in the Nov. 5 presidential election - Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, the agency said in a report issued .
"The incoming administration will face a deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook, as declining debt affordability will gradually weaken U.S. fiscal strength," the report stated. "In the absence of policy measures that can curb these trends and help limit fiscal deficits, deteriorating fiscal strength will increasingly weigh on the U.S. sovereign credit profile."
Moody's lowered the outlook on its triple-A U.S. credit rating to "negative" from "stable" in November 2023.
That came months after a rating downgrade of the sovereign credit profile by another ratings agency, Fitch, following political brinkmanship around raising the U.S. debt ceiling.
Moody's remains the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. government. Fitch changed its rating from triple-A to AA+ in August 2023, joining S&P, which has had an AA+ rating since 2011.
Moody's said it expects the U.S. government to run fiscal deficits of around 7% of gross domestic product per year over the next five years, and that deficits could rise to 9% by 2034, which would push the debt burden to 130% of GDP by then from 97% last year.
"U.S. fiscal strength will materially weaken in the absence of meaningful policy steps to reduce the fiscal deficit, rein in new borrowing to fund those deficits and slow the rise in interest expense that consumes an increasingly large share of government revenues," the agency said.
"These debt dynamics would be increasingly unsustainable and inconsistent with an Aaa rating if no policy actions are taken to course correct," it added.
Fitch said last month the U.S. fiscal profile is likely to remain largely unchanged regardless of who wins in November.
A decisive factor for the U.S. sovereign fiscal outlook will be not only the outcome of the presidential race, but also the composition of Congress as determined in the November elections, as the balance of power in the legislature could limit an incoming administration's ability to secure passage of legislation, Moody's said.
Congress is currently divided, with the House of Representatives narrowly controlled by Republicans and the Senate by Democrats.
"We anticipate that the U.S. government will remain divided, preventing sweeping fiscal reforms by the new administration. As a result, fiscal policy proposals by both candidates will likely require intense bipartisan negotiations and compromise," Moody's said.
On the other hand, a potential sweep by either party could lead to material changes in policies that may have broader effects on the economic growth outlook and the credit profile of public and private sector entities.
"Credit risks lie in the possibility of abrupt and disruptive changes to tax, trade and investment, immigration and climate policies among other areas," it said.
Trump said last month that U.S. presidents should have a say over decisions made by the Federal Reserve, indicating he could break with traditional policies toward the independence of the central bank.
Moody's said political influence over monetary policy decisions would be "credit negative" and may have repercussions on investor confidence in the U.S. financial markets.
More broadly, an "erosion of institutional strength can undermine confidence and impair the implementation of countercyclical policies, negatively affecting growth, financial markets and the operating environment for debt issuers," it said.
Traders shorting crude oil are walking into a bear trap as energy demand may well reverse its current course next year, Bank of America analysts have warned.
In a fresh note, they wrote that traders have assumed oil prices will remain weak in the near term, possibly even weaken further. Among the factors behind this assumption, the bank’s analysts listed the perception of weakening demand in China, the prospect of an OPEC+ price war, and continued struggles in the global economy.
However, the analysts added that things may turn out differently. Citing “the next productivity revolution”, Bank of America said it expected energy demand to rise substantially in the near term, driven by strengthening economic growth.
“For all the bearish concerns out there, we believe global energy consumption will likely speed up ahead as the next productivity revolution comes to the fore,” the analysts wrote.
“It is important to remember that the upcoming clash between artificial intelligence and the fight against climate change has energy at its core,” they pointed out.
Indeed, artificial intelligence development is on a collision course with energy transition efforts due to the scale of its energy demand and the fact this energy must be dispatchable, which is not the general case with wind and solar power.
The AI drive in Big Tech is expected to boost natural gas demand substantially, as a cleaner alternative to coal but just as reliable in terms of generation. According to BofA, it would also boost U.S. electricity demand growth from the current—and quite modest—0.2% to 2% over the next seven years.
The bank’s analysts also estimate that global GDP will expand at a rate of 3.3% next year, with global energy demand adding 3% in the same year. That additional demand could not be satisfied by non-hydrocarbon sources alone, the analysts noted, which means that demand for hydrocarbons in general and oil specifically will likely rise, taking prices higher.
Almost any likely path for U.S. interest rates will leave the Federal Reserve owning as much as $600 billion in mortgage bonds a decade from now, according to new U.S. central bank research that could bolster a case for selling the securities outright to meet a goal of a bond portfolio composed mostly of Treasuries.
The research, published last week, argued that whether interest rates are higher, lower or in line with a rate path consistent with what central bankers expected as of June, the Fed will struggle to shed the mortgage bonds it owns by allowing a certain amount to mature without being replaced each month. Unlike government bonds held by the central bank, Fed-owned mortgage-backed securities (MBS) face little risk of being retired early given the very low rates seen on those bonds.
The authors of the paper note that almost all of the Fed's MBS holdings have interest rates of less than 4%, well below current yields. That means homeowners whose low-rate mortgages underlay the bonds are unlikely to refinance their loans and or sell their homes and look to buy new ones - the so-called "lock-in effect."
"Even a notable decline in mortgage rates would likely not materially affect" this dynamic, the authors wrote.
Since 2022 the Fed has been shrinking the size of its balance sheet by allowing the Treasuries and mortgage bonds it owns to mature and not be replaced. That's taken the overall size of Fed holdings from a $9 trillion peak to its current level of $7.2 trillion.
Balance sheet contraction, known as quantitative tightening (QT), is part of a process of normalizing the overall stance of monetary after the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed is seeking to reduce liquidity to levels it deems enough to give it firm control over short-term rates and to allow for normal money market volatility, and it remains unsure how far it will have to go to do so.
It also wants to return to a stance in which its bond holdings are made up mainly of Treasury securities. As of July, market participants expected the Fed's QT to end in April, although they expect the central bank to continue to allow mortgages to expire without being replaced.
Fed officials have also sought to separate QT from what's happening with interest rate policy, which is now pointed toward an extended series of cuts after the central bank's decision last week to reduce borrowing costs by half a percentage point.
The Fed currently owns $2.3 trillion in mortgage bonds, down from its peak of $2.7 trillion, with most of the progress in QT progress due to drawdowns of Treasury bonds. The paper said that if interest rates decline consistent with early summer expectations, the Fed's mortgage holdings will ebb to $1.2 trillion by the end of 2030 and $700 billion by the close of 2035.
If interest rates are lower than expected, the 2030 level will still be the same and Fed mortgage holdings will hit $600 billion by the end of 2035.
The challenges the central bank faces on the mortgage bond front have kept alive the idea that at some point in the future it may have to consider active sales, although officials have yet to say much about that prospect.
Given the paper's findings, the Fed "might be motivated to consider (mortgage bond) sales more seriously, even if on a small scale," said Derek Tang, an analyst with research firm LHMeyer. "Otherwise, they would be stuck with these holdings for a while."
Malaysia is working on initiatives to ensure its small-scale palm oil producers are able to comply with the European Union's law banning imports of commodities linked to deforestation, its commodities minister said on Friday.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is due to be implemented on Dec 30 this year, requiring companies selling soy, beef, coffee, palm oil and other products in the 27-nation bloc to prove their supply chains do not contribute to the destruction of forests.
Equally, EU companies will be banned from exporting products cultivated on deforested land.
Malaysia and Indonesia, who together account for about 85% of global palm oil exports, have previously accused the EU of discriminatory policies targeting palm oil.
Malaysia's Plantation and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani said on Friday that the country's palm oil sector adopts stringent sustainability standards through its sustainability certification scheme.
He said an estimated 450,000 small-scale producers contributed 27% of Malaysia's total palm oil production and the government was actively working on capacity-building initiatives to support their transition to EUDR compliance.
"This is important to ensure that the livelihoods of these smallholders are not affected by the implementation of the regulation," Johari said in a statement, without providing details on the initiatives.
Malaysia also focuses on the aspects of traceability, deforestation-free, legitimate land title, and good labour practices in line with International Labour Organization standards to ensure sustainability of its palm oil products, Johari added.
Earlier this month, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council urged the EU to delay the implementation of the law to protect small farmers and ensure fair trade.
The EU has resisted calls to delay its policy and said the rules are to ensure the bloc does not contribute to forest degradation worldwide.
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