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UK supermarket sales rose 4.7% in October as early holiday shopping begins, driven by easing inflation. Ocado led growth at 15.9%, while Tesco and Sainsbury's also saw increases.
The crypto market cap rose by 1.4% to $2.31 trillion. Cryptocurrencies and equities are now out of sync (there was profit-taking in equities), but they maintain a general upward bias. The crypto market is forming an uptrend, which will be confirmed if local highs exceed the previous high of $2.32 trillion.
Bitcoin received a jolt on Tuesday, first jumping 4% in four hours to almost $68K and then losing over 4.6% to $64.7K. The market digested this influx of stop orders and soon began to rise again, trading near $66.8K at the time of writing. It will be interesting to see the bulls and bears continue to battle on a retest of $68K. The first cryptocurrency was not allowed to go higher in July, but now the bulls have the breakdown of the descending channel and an active pullback from the 200-day moving average on their side. At the same time, the RSI on the daily timeframe is not yet in the overbought territory, leaving room to run.
Ethereum looks weak now, approaching $2,700—the area of previous peaks—but it needs to break through. Perhaps a return of risk appetite in the equity markets will spark new momentum for the second-largest cryptocurrency to rise towards $3,000.
The funding rate for perpetual bitcoin contracts has hit a multi-month high, indicating bullish sentiment and a growing influx of liquidity, notes The Block.
CryptoQuant notes that demand for Bitcoin has surged, rising at the fastest monthly pace since April 2024. Open interest (OI) in derivatives rose to a record $19.8 billion.
Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could hit an all-time high ahead of the US election. Donald Trump’s increased odds of victory, significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, and increased activity in the BTC call options market are fuelling sentiment.
MicroStrategy shares are a leading indicator of a potential bullish breakout, according to Bernstein. They are up 190% year-to-date, while BTC is up just 55%.
The US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) fined TD Bank a record $1.3 billion for facilitating money laundering through cryptocurrencies.
NZD/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.6070 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the upside for the AUD/USD pair could be limited by recent data showing that inflation in New Zealand has slowed to its lowest level in over three years. This has increased the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reducing interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in November.
New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% year-over-year in the September quarter, down from the 3.3% annual increase in the previous quarter. "For the first time since March 2021, annual inflation is within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1% to 3%. Prices are still increasing but at a slower rate than before," said Nicola Growden, consumer prices manager at Stats NZ.
Market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand's top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday.
The US Dollar (USD) found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Traders are keenly awaiting the US Retail Sales data, set to be released later in the North American session. Expectations are for monthly consumer spending to increase by 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in the previous reading.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades with mild losses on the stronger US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The significant outflows from Indian equities and USD demand from foreign banks and importers exert some selling pressure on the local currency.
However, the decline in crude oil prices amid easing fears over supply disruption in the Middle East might support the INR as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Additionally, the routine foreign exchange interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cap the downside for the Indian Rupee.
Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales data for September, which is due later on Thursday. Also, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be released.
India’s trade deficit stood at $20.78 billion in September from $29.65 billion in August, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday.
India’s Exports rose marginally to 34.58 billion in September from 34.41 in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, Imports declined to 55.36 billion in September versus 64.36 billion prior.
Foreign funds withdrew more than $7 billion from Indian equities in the month through October 14, the largest in over four years, according to Bloomberg.
The US Retail Sales is estimated to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in the previous reading.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a nearly 94% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in November.
The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. Technically, the USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe as the price holds above the ascending trend line and the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 58.80, hinting that the uptrend is more likely to gain traction than reverse.
Sustained trading above the all-time high of 84.15 could expose the pair to a possible move up to 84.50. Further north, the next upside barrier to watch is the 85.00 psychological level.
Bearish candlesticks below the rising trend line could lead to 83.90, the low of October 10. A breach of the mentioned level could pave the way to 83.70, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is seen at 83.00, representing the round mark and the low of May 24.
Gold price (XAU/USD) built on its uptrend witnessed over the past week or so and retested the all-time high on Wednesday amid the expected interest rate cuts by major central banks. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Furthermore, weak inflation data from Europe and the UK have solidified bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). This led to generally lower yields, which, in turn, continued to offer support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor underpinning demand for the safe-haven Gold price. Meanwhile, growing acceptance that the Fed will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year lifted the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level since early August and beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since July. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD and cap the upside ahead of US macro data due later this Thursday.
The recent decline in Crude Oil prices is expected to ease inflationary pressures and allow major central banks to cut interest rates further, which continues to drive flows towards the non-yielding Gold price.
The European Central Bank is on course to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year this Thursday, while a sharp drop in the UK inflation reaffirmed bets for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November.
Moreover, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates over a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next month, dragging the US bond yields to over a one-week low.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar prolonged its well-established uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this month and climbed to its highest level since early August, though it did little to discourage the XAU/USD bulls.
The recent comments from officials at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference suggest that central banks remain keen buyers of bullion to diversify their reserves for financial or strategic reasons.
The United Nations (UN) said that Israeli forces have fired at its peacekeeping position, forcibly entered a base, stopped a critical logistical movement, and injured more than a dozen of its troops in southern Lebanon.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s October 1 attack is ready, raising the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions and a full-blown war in the Middle East.
Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US economic docket – featuring the release of Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Furthermore, the ECB monetary policy decision might infuse volatility in the markets and provide some meaningful impetus to the safe-haven precious metal, allowing traders to grab short-term opportunities.
From a technical perspective, the ongoing positive move could lift the Gold price to the $2,700 mark. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone.
On the flip side, the $2,662-2,660 horizontal zone now seems to act as an immediate support ahead of the $2,647-2,646 area. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,630 intermediate support en route to the $2,600 neighborhood.
Japan’s exports dropped by the most since February 2021 in September, sapping momentum from the country’s economic recovery as global demand weakened.
Exports declined 1.7 per cent from a year ago led by cars, mineral fuels and construction machinery, and slipping to negative growth for the first time since November last year, the Ministry of Finance reported on Oct 17. The reading missed economists’ forecast of a 0.9 per cent gain.
Imports rose 2.1 per cent, led by electronic calculators and semiconductor parts, and slightly missing the consensus estimate of a 2.8 per cent gain, while the trade deficit narrowed to 294.3 billion yen (S$2.6 billion).
The Oct 17 data indicate that Japan’s economy likely received limited support from external demand in the third quarter amid a global slowdown. Japan’s economy expanded in the three months through June, partly driven by a rise in private consumption, though the growth also appeared to be a temporary rebound after a deep contraction in the prior period.
“It’s a weak result,” said Yayoi Sakanaka, senior economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies, adding that net exports will likely be a drag on the third quarter. “Looking ahead, though the yen is slightly weaker again, I don’t think it will be a tailwind for exporters” given that other stronger factors are at play, such as China’s strengthening of its own exports which will likely muscle out Japanese shipments.
The weaker exports reflect sluggish global growth amid growing uncertainty about the outlook in major economies.
Shipments to China sank 7.3 per cent, reversing gains of 5.2 per cent the month before, while those to the United States and Europe fell 2.4 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.
The World Trade Organization recently suggested that global goods trade in 2025 will grow less than initially forecast, as rising instability weighs on economic activity and threatens to disrupt shipments.
Still, central banks have started to cut interest rates to avoid deeper slowdowns. Last month, the Federal Reserve announced a half-percentage-point rate cut to sustain its economy, following a similar decision by its European counterpart. The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates again at its meeting on Oct 17.
The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring global trends, especially in the US and China, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said last week. Himino suggested employment and consumption data in these countries are becoming increasingly important for the bank’s decisions. In last month’s policy statement, the central bank noted that overseas economies have generally experienced moderate growth.
The BOJ will meet at the end of the month, with most economists expecting it to maintain current settings, according to a Bloomberg survey last month.
“While a weak overseas economy is one hurdle for the BOJ to raise interest rates, I believe the bank is more focussed on domestic prices and exchange rate levels,” said Mizuho’s Sakanaka.
Japan’s currency remains another source of uncertainty, with the yen approaching the 150 level to the US dollar. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato recently said that he will closely watch both the positive and negative impacts of yen moves on Japanese businesses. While a weak yen can boost exporter profits, it also raises import prices, impacting households through increased costs, he said.
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