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The ISM Manufacturing Index marginally improved in August.
The ISM Manufacturing Index marginally improved in August, rising to 47.2 and just short of expectations of a 47.5 print. As in July, only five industries reported growth for the month, but as some larger industries grew, a smaller share of manufacturing GDP shrank relative to last month (65% vs. 86% in July).
Demand continued to slow as the new orders index fell to 44.6, new export orders remained in contraction, and backlogs continued to shrink.
Output conditions remain subdued, as both the employment and production indexes remain in contraction, despite a slight uptick in the former.
Price pressures picked up again last month, with the index rising to 54.0, now well above the 52.8 reading that is typically associated with an increase in the Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
The takeaway here is that the challenging conditions persist for the manufacturing sector. New demand continues to contract, and weakness remains broad based.
Despite the softness in the report there are reasons for optimism. The Fed is set to begin cutting interest rates, a key impediment to the sector’s growth prospects. For manufacturers, the light at the end of the tunnel is starting to emerge, but with the pace of cuts likely to be gradual, the recovery will likely proceed in fits and starts.
Korea's foreign reserves increased for the second straight month in August on the back of the increased value of non-U.S. dollar assets and investment gains, central bank data showed Wednesday.
The country's foreign reserves had come to $415.92 billion as of end-August, up $2.41 billion from the previous month, according to the data from the Bank of Korea (BOK).
The central bank attributed the increase to a rise in the converted value of non-dollar assets amid the weak greenback and investment returns.
The dollar index that gauges the greenback's value against major peers fell 3.1 percent last month, boosting the converted value of non-dollar assets, the central bank said.
Foreign reserves consist of securities and deposits denominated in overseas currencies, International Monetary Fund reserve positions, special drawing rights and gold bullion.
Foreign securities, such as U.S. Treasuries, had been valued at $369.44 billion as of end-August, up $2.39 billion from a month earlier. They accounted for 88.8 percent of foreign reserves, the data showed.
The value of deposits stood at $22.05 billion at the end of August, down $310 million over the cited period.
Korea ranked as the world's ninth-largest holder of foreign reserves at the end of July, the BOK said.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the key economic data on Wednesday. Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) posted a 0.2% reading QoQ for the second quarter, up from the previous quarter’s 0.1% but falling short of the expected 0.3% readings.
Additionally, the upbeat Australian August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) might have provided some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD) and limited the downside of the AUD/USD pair. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday, to gather more insights into the central bank's hawkish stance on monetary policy.
The US Dollar receives support as traders evaluate the economic and monetary outlook. The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated that factory activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month, with the pace of decline slightly exceeding expectations. This renewed concerns about the impact of elevated interest rates on the health of the US economy.
Traders now await more economic data due this week, including the ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to shed light on the potential size of an expected rate cut by the Fed this month.
The Judo Bank Composite PMI climbed to 51.7 in August, up from 51.4 in July, signaling the fastest expansion in three months. This growth was primarily fueled by a rise in services activity, with the Services PMI reaching 52.5 in August, up from 52.2 in July, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth in the services sector.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched up to 47.2 in August from 46.8 in July, falling short of market expectations of 47.5. This marks the 21st contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months.
Australia’s Building Permits surged by 10.4% month-over-month in July, sharply rebounding from a 6.5% decline in June, marking the strongest growth since May 2023. On an annual basis, the growth rate reached 14.3%, a significant recovery from the previous 3.7% decline.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but falling short of the estimated 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% year-over-year in July, consistent with the prior figure of 2.6% but slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.
The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, exceeding both the expected and previous growth rate of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell to 231,000 for the week ending August 23, down from the previous 233,000 and slightly below the expected 232,000.
Australia's Private Capital Expenditure unexpectedly declined by 2.2% in the second quarter, reversing from an upwardly revised 1.9% expansion in the previous period and falling short of market expectations for a 1.0% increase. This marks the first contraction in new capital expenditure since the third quarter of 2023.
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6700 on Wednesday. Analyzing the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair has breached below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term bearish trend. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also moved below the 50 level, confirming the bearish bias.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may navigate region around the throwback level at 0.6575, with further decline possibly targeting the lower support at 0.6470.
In terms of resistance, the AUD/USD pair may test immediate support around the 14-day EMA at 0.6729, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.6742. A break above these EMAs could support the pair to test the seven-month high of 0.6798.
The dollar index is up 1.4% to 101.7, having found support twice in the first half of last week before falling to 101.4.
The bounce has seen the dollar recover a quarter of the anti-rally from its peak in late July to the lows late last month. The momentum around current levels could be significant as the first retracement level (76.4% of the initial move) is centred here. At this point, there is more evidence to suggest that the dollar will at least attempt a higher rebound.
A 61.8% pullback is considered a classic market correction, which, in this case, is at 102.45. The fundamental driver of the dollar’s rally in recent days has been a repricing of the odds of a 50-point Fed rate cut in September. The odds of such an outcome are now estimated at 30%, down from 85% on 5 August (and 100% at the peak of the intraday sell-off).
The recent bounce is also telling, as the dollar bulls have managed to keep the market above the 200-week moving average and the RSI out of the oversold zone on the weekly chart. This looks like the start of a deeper bounce beyond the short-term shakeout.
Some uncertainty may remain until the release of the NFP later this week or even the inflation data on 11 September. Weakness in the macroeconomic data these days has the potential to send the dollar lower again after the chances of a sharp Fed reversal have risen.
However, in our baseline data scenario, which is in line with expectations, we see the odds of a regular 25-point rate cut in September and two more cuts before the end of the year rising. This seems like positive news for the dollar, which could gain around 1% from current levels.
The DXY’s rally may not stop there and could take it to the upper boundary of the 100.5-106.0 sideways range, where it has mostly traded since the beginning of the year.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is in the front of the global easing cycle. Having cut interest rates twice in a row, the central bank is widely expected to announce its third reduction on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT, but it won’t stop there. It is anticipated that interest rates will decline to 3.75% by the end of the year, based on the futures markets. The bank’s board is expected to approve two additional 25 bps cuts in October and December, and potentially more in early 2025.
The question that comes instantly to mind is whether the current market pricing is realistic. Driven by base effects, inflation continued to trend down and towards the central bank’s 2.0% midpoint target, with headline CPI inflation falling to 2.5% y/y and the core measure easing to 2.6% in July. Of course, shelter costs remained elevated, but there was a slowdown from the previous month.
With the battle against inflation looking almost settled, the focus has started to shift to the labor market and to economic growth as interest rates are still hovering at multi-year highs despite easing lately. The unemployment rate has been steadily rising over the past year before stabilizing at a more-than-a-year high of 6.4% and is expected to tick up to 6.5% on Friday when the next employment report is published.
As regards economic growth, GDP rose at a faster-than-expected annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter. While the data was encouraging, the details showed that the expansion was driven by factors that could prove transient such as government spending and business investment on engineering structures in oil and gas facilities. Spending on services increased as well but the rise was trimmed by declines in goods consumption, net trade, and residential structure, while growing population squeezed per capita household expenditure to the negative region. Moreover, the monthly GDP readings for July displayed stagnation at the start of the third quarter.
Hence, the latest economic developments could justify further monetary easing as Canada is more sensitive to global trade and housing risks than the US. Still, whether there is a need for more aggressive rate cuts, or a continuous easing process remains to be seen. There will be no policy statement or updated economic projections following the rate decision, which reduces the odds for a serious shift in communication.
The certain thing is that messaging such an aggressive dovish strategy or delivering an unexpected 50bps rate cut could sow panic, signaling that things are going out of the central bank’s control. Note that futures markets are currently pricing a small probability of 23% for a double rate cut. Therefore, if that scenario unfolds, the loonie could drift significantly lower, lifting USDCAD above 1.3585 and beyond the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 1.3700 number could be the next target on the upside.
If the BoC slashes interest rates as expected but plays down the case of consecutive or double rate cuts, investors might take it as a hawkish signal, helping the loonie to resume its positive momentum. USDCAD might drift back towards the 1.3440 support zone in the aftermath of such a scenario. Failure to pivot there could bolster downside forces towards 1.3300-1.3350.
Perhaps volatility could stay relatively balanced if the policy meeting is uneventful and investors wait for fresh direction from Friday’s jobs report. A worse-than-expected employment report could keep the case of a double rate cut alive in the coming months, putting some pressure on the loonie. Strong numbers on the other hand could help the currency to strengthen. Analysts estimate a positive employment growth of 25.6k versus -2.8k in July and a slight pickup in the unemployment rate from 6.4% to 6.5%.
Gold, silver, and platinum all have different degrees of moneyness and this largely explains their price action. Gold is the purest form of money due to its intrinsic usefulness combined with its high stock-to-flow ratio of around 70-80x, meaning that the above ground stock of the metal is many multiples of the metal's annual mining supply. Silver has a significantly lower stock-to-flow ratio estimated at between 20-50x, but it is still much higher than that of platinum which is often as low as 1x.
The different monetary and industrial characteristics have significant implications for how the metals prices change over time in response to economic fundamentals. While gold is seen as an inflation hedge, its price is driven more by changes in real interest rates, with changes in inflation expectations having only a minor impact on the metal. This contrasts with platinum, and to a lesser extent silver, which are more responsive to changes in inflation expectations. The table below shows the rolling correlation of each metal with inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and real interest rate expectations.
Rolling 100-day correlation with 10-year US breakeven inflation expectations, 10-year US bond yields, and 10-year US inflation-linked bond yields since 2004.
Due to its high stock-to-flow ratio gold prices are driven primarily by changes in demand rather than supply. Over the long term this demand tends to be driven by the supply of fiat money in the economy, while in the short term it is driven largely by the real interest rate on fiat money.
Demand for gold rises when the opportunity cost of holding the metal declines, which occurs when the expected interest rate on fiat currency falls relative to the expected rate of inflation. This can be captured in the close inverse relationship between gold and 10-year US inflation-linked bond yields.
Note that rising inflation expectations on their own tend to have only a positive impact on gold prices. This may seem counterintuitive given that gold is widely seen as a hedge against inflation, but the weak correlation between gold and inflation expectations reflect the tendency for rising inflation expectations to drive up interest rate expectations to the detriment of gold demand.
Silver is driven in part by monetary demand and in part by industrial demand. Like gold, silver is driven by fiat money supply over the long term, but in the short term it is driven in equal parts by monetary demand as a store of value and industrial demand.
As a result, silver tends to be more positively impacted by rising inflation expectations and less negatively impacted by rising bond yields as these conditions tend to reflect rising economic growth expectations, which benefit industrial commodity demand. This also explains why silver is slightly less negatively correlated with real bond yields when compared with gold.
Another interesting feature about the price of silver is that although it has underperformed gold over the past two decades, it has actually outperformed during periods of gold strength. This can be seen in the chart below, which shows the rolling correlation between the gold price and the silver/gold ratio. Most of the time, if gold is up, silver is up even more, while if silver is up, it is almost guaranteed to be up by more than gold. This is because silver is a smaller market and can therefore more easily be driven up during periods of speculative demand for precious metals.
While platinum has a degree of moneyness its low stock-to-to flow ratio means mine supply is a much more critical factor in driving prices and demand is driven much more by industrial use, with investment only representing about 10% of total demand on average.
As a result, the metal is much less dependent on changes in real bond yields. In contrast, platinum is driven more by inflation expectations, while rising bond yields tend to be slightly positive for the metal as they tend to reflect periods of economic strength which are supportive for industrial demand.
Platinum's role as predominantly an industrial metal explains why it has closely tracked the ratio of silver over gold prices over the past 20 years. The correlation is extremely high and strongly suggests that if silver outperforms gold, platinum will rise.
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