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As the Asian session begins, the Japanese yen demonstrated notable strength as heightened risk-averse sentiment pervaded the forex market.
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra unveiled her new Cabinet line-up, retaining Pichai Chunhavajira as the finance minister in a signal of policy continuity, as she faces the task of bolstering Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
A former chairman of the Thai stock exchange, Pichai was named as the finance minister, and most members of the previous Cabinet led by ousted leader Srettha Thavisin were also retained, according to a list published in the Royal Gazette on Wednesday. The Cabinet is set to be sworn in by the King within days, and Paetongtarn is expected to deliver a policy statement soon.
Phumtham Wechayachai, a senior member of the Pheu Thai Party, which leads the multi-party ruling coalition, was named the defence minister, while Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the leader of military-backed United Thai Nation party, was named as the energy minister.
Paetongtarn, the third member of the influential Shinawatra clan to become the prime minister, took over from Srettha, who was ousted by the nation’s Constitutional Court for an ethical breach. She has to lead a US$500 billion (RM2.17 trillion) economy that has posted average sub-2% growth rates for nearly a decade of military-backed rule.
Pichai’s challenges include accelerating an economic recovery with a controversial US$14 billion cash handout to nearly 70% of the population that Srettha had touted as a way to boost growth to 5%. He may have to rework the so-called digital wallet program as Paetongtarn had hinted at a review after being elected as the leader.
Thailand's Parliament is set to approve this week a 3.75 trillion baht (US$109 billion or RM476.59 billion) budget for the fiscal year starting in October to bolster an economy hobbled by near-record household debt, high living costs and a sluggish manufacturing sector battling cheap imports of goods from China.
Paetongtarn, 38, is a relative newcomer to politics and will need to prove that her lack of administrative experience isn’t a handicap in keeping the unwieldy coalition together, while seeking to attract foreign investment into high-tech industries and stem the exodus of foreign funds from the nation’s stocks.
Pichai, who first took the finance post in April this year, has taken steps to tighter oversight of the stocks and bonds markets, besides introducing tax breaks to drive investment in so-called sustainable funds. He has also promised to launch a state fund which will guarantee a minimum annual return and principal protection for investors.
Australia's economy stayed stuck in the slow lane in the June quarter, as stiff borrowing costs and stubborn inflation squeezed consumers, leaving government spending as the main driver of growth.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday also revealed that domestic price pressures were still running high, underscoring the central bank's reluctance to cut rates anytime soon, even though markets are wagering on a December policy easing.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in the second quarter, unchanged for three straight quarters, and was just under market forecasts of 0.3%.
Annual growth slowed to 1.0% from 1.2% the previous quarter, lows last seen during the 1990s recession, barring the distortions from the pandemic.
For the quarter, household spending, which accounts for half of GDP, actually fell 0.2% to drag on growth, as people cut back on trips abroad. The savings rate stayed subdued at 0.6%.
"The economy is lacking a clear engine of growth. Tight policy settings have successfully reined in demand, but inflationary pressures are yet to be completely tamed," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.
"Income tax cuts and consumer subsidies will aid momentum in the second half of the year. But any improvement in activity will be unspectacular."
The downturn has been largely engineered by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which hiked interest rates to a 12-year high of 4.35% in an effort to curb demand and price pressures, but underlying inflation remained high at 3.9% last quarter.
Productivity — the measure of output per hour worked — dropped 0.8% in the quarter. The result might be worrisome for the RBA, as its forecasts on inflation to return to the target band of 2%-3% in 2026 were centred on a pickup in productivity.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the GDP figures as "soft and subdued", but said they were in line with expectations, as government spending, primarily on health, boosted the economy.
The RBA expected economic growth to pick up to 1.7% in the fourth quarter, which assumed two strong quarters in the second half of the year, although evidence so far is scant that the expected rebound in consumer spending is materialising, as households saved most tax cuts.
Retail sales were already flat for July, in an indication that large-scale tax cuts were yet to boost spending, and card data for August from Westpac showed just a gradual pickup, suggesting fiscal support is only having a muted impact on demand.
Financial markets are still pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in December, even though policymakers have all but ruled out an easing this year, as underlying inflation, which ran at 3.9% last quarter, stays high.
Indeed, measures of prices in the GDP report were also on the high side, with inflation in domestic demand running at 4.2% for the year.
Terms of trade fell 3% due to falling commodity prices.
All this inflation has been a boon for nominal GDP, which expanded 4.4% in the year to June. Stripping out the effects of inflation, however, per capita GDP fell 0.4% in the quarter, the sixth straight quarter of declines.
"Given the current growth trajectory and against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and subdued consumer spending, it’s not entirely clear where the rebound in growth will come from, barring pre-emptive RBA rate cuts," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
Malaysia would outperform Asia ex-Japan stocks and its economy could gain some indirect benefits if Donald Trump returns to power for the second time, Nomura said.
Ongoing supply chain shifts could accelerate and mitigate any trade impact, Nomura said in a report analysing the potential second Trump presidential term. There are also other pull factors, such as structural reforms, technology investments, and big-ticket infrastructure projects, the house noted.
“These factors are providing a significant offset that might still increase over time,” Nomura said.
Malaysia has seen rising foreign direct investment from both the US and China, as global companies seek to dodge punitive tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term as president in 2017-2021.
As the latest Republican presidential candidate, Trump is going into the US election in November, promising far more prohibitive trade policies than those implemented during his previous term, and may step up trade war with China.
“Malaysia… has the greatest scope to move up the value chain” and its electronics sector would be at the forefront of investment flows, Nomura said.
Malaysia hosts some of the world’s largest electrical and electronics companies, ranging from semiconductor giant Intel to consumer electronics maker Samsung, and from computer storage company Western Digital to power tool manufacturer Bosch.
The country is also the seventh largest semiconductor exporter with 7% of global market share, and accounts for 13% of the global share of chip assembly, testing and packaging in the supply chain, according to the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association.
“These form part of the back-end semiconductor supply chain, which is a necessary manufacturing process in the production workflow” of all electrical and electronic products, Nomura said, flagging Inari Amertron Bhd and Globetronics Technology Bhd as potential winners.
Higher tariffs on Chinese goods under Trump could boost Malaysia’s rubber glove industry, and manufacturers such as Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Top Glove Corp Bhd could benefit from the tariff hikes, the house said.
Further, tariffs by China on American farm products, including soybeans, could raise demand for competing palm oil, Nomura said, adding that gainers would be mainly producers like Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and IOI Corporation Bhd.
Ford Motor Credit Co, Formula 1, Brazil’s Petrobras and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund were just a handful of the issuers tapping debt markets on Tuesday, capitalising on cheap funding costs ahead of potential spikes in yields in the coming months tied to the US presidential election.
Nearly 30 blue-chip companies sold about US$43 billion (RM186.95 billion) of bonds in the US market on Tuesday, the busiest single sales day by number of issuers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Europe, 24 companies and government-tied issuers raised €22.60 billion (RM108.64 billion) from debt markets, adding to Monday’s €11.5 billion-plus issuance. Among Asian borrowers, the Indonesian government came to the market.
The deluge comes as corporate finance chiefs are eager to lock in more favorable borrowing costs. Bond yields on global investment-grade corporate debt averaged 4.52% as of Tuesday’s close, near their lowest level in about two years.
“For issuers that are looking to print a low coupon, you could clearly see why they would be hitting the market at this point,” Robert Tipp, the chief investment strategist and head of global bonds for PGIM Fixed Income, said in a phone interview.
Bond investors on Tuesday brushed aside growing worries over corporate profitability that sent US stocks to their worst day since the market crash early last month.
At first blush, the debt spree may seem a bit counterintuitive, given that markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start cutting rates this month, and lower borrowing costs are good for corporate issuers.
But yields could be pushed in unexpected directions if the Fed doesn’t reduce rates fast enough or if the US elections spur market volatility. That has led finance chiefs who need to borrow this year or even next year to do so before October.
The bond blitz extended even to Latin American borrowers, marking the region’s busiest day for hard-currency debt issuance this year. The Uruguayan government, and lenders BBVA Mexico SA and Banco de Credito Del Peru joined Brazilian oil giant Petrobras in selling dollar notes on Tuesday.
Apart from Ford, firms like Target Corp and General Motors Financial Co Inc also rushed to the blue-chip bond market on Tuesday. Uber Technologies Inc, meanwhile, sounded out investors for its potential first investment-grade bond sale. US high-grade bond sales are expected to reach US$125 billion this month, in line with last September’s US$124.1 billion.
Speculative-grade companies also got in on the action on Tuesday, launching more than US$17 billion of deals via the high-yield bond and leveraged loan markets, far outpacing last-year’s post-Labor Day activity.
Lenders that have been especially hungry to provide debt for new acquisitions and leveraged buyouts are finally seeing that supply hit the market. Formula 1 kicked off a US$850 million leveraged loan sale to help fund its owner Liberty Media Corp’s acquisition of MotoGP World Championship. A US$2.05 billion leveraged loan sale launched on Tuesday to finance the buyout of educational-software company Instructure Holdings Co.
A slew of companies are also tapping investors for refinancings and dividends. TransDigm Group Inc is offering US$3 billion of new debt to fund a special cash dividend to shareholders that could reach US$4.5 billion.
To John McClain, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, a combination of favourable borrowing costs and the need to get ahead of the US election has fueled the issuance frenzy.
“August lulled investors into tight spreads combined with ever strong demand for credit,” he said. “Issuers can borrow at rates we haven’t seen in a couple of years.”
Risk aversion swept across US markets, with the selloff extending into Asian trading, driven by renewed fears of a recession. Weak US manufacturing data brought economic concerns back into focus, leading to a sharp 600-point drop in DOW and a more than 3.2% plunge in NASDAQ. The negative sentiment spread broadly across asset classes, with WTI crude oil tumbling over 4% and Bitcoin diving below the 56k mark.
Despite increasing expectations for a larger 50bps rate cut by Fed later this month, market sentiment remains fragile. The probability of a 50bps cut has risen to 41%, up from 30% just a day earlier, according to Fed fund futures. However, market participants remain cautious, as sentiment could deteriorate further with the release of key US economic data later in the week.
The services sector, which has been a crucial driver of the US economy while manufacturing has been in contraction for nearly two years, is showing signs of strain. ISM services data, set to be released on Thursday, has been fluctuating around the 50 mark since Q2, reflecting weakening conditions. A further decline would raise the possibility that the US economy is already on the brink of a recession. Additionally, Friday’s non-farm payroll report will be closely watched, as it could confirm or ease recession fears.
Technically, immediate focus is now on whether NASDAQ could bounce from 38.2% retracement of 15708.53 to 18017.68 at 17153.59. If not, decisive break there would push the index to 61.8% retracement at 16590.63. That would also argue that the consolidation from 18671.06 has already started the third leg, which could extend through 15708.53 low.
Overall in the currency markets, Yen has emerged as the strongest performer this week so far, followed by Swiss Franc and then Euro. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest, followed by Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar, with the latter awaiting the outcome of today’s BoC rate cut decision. Dollar and Sterling are positioning in the middle.
Japan’s services sector continued its expansion in August, with PMI Services index finalized at 53.7, unchanged from July’s figure. This marks the 23rd month of growth out of the past 24. PMI Composite, which includes both services and manufacturing, rose to 52.9 from 52.5 in July, reflecting the strongest overall growth since May 2023.
The services sector showed solid performance, while manufacturing output posted its most significant increase since May 2022. According to Usamah Bhatti, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, August saw ongoing growth in activity, new business, and employment in the service sector. However, the pace of employment growth and business optimism slowed to seven- and 19-month lows, respectively.
Australia’s GDP grew by 0.2% qoq in Q2, aligning with market expectations. However, GDP per capita declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, falling by -0.4% qoq. For the 2023-24 financial year, the economy expanded by 1.5%.
Katherine Keenan, head of national accounts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, noted, “The Australian economy grew for the eleventh consecutive quarter, although growth slowed over the 2023-24 financial year.”
Keenan also pointed out that excluding the pandemic period, annual financial year growth was the lowest since 1991-92, a year marked by the recovery from the 1991 recession.
BoC is widely expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting today, lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 4.25%. With inflation at a 40-month low of 2.5% and trending toward the 2% target, coupled with ongoing weakness in the labor market, further easing is anticipated. As a result, BoC is likely to maintain a dovish stance in its statement.
A recent Reuters poll shows that 70% of economists expect additional rate cuts in October and December, with the rate reaching 3.75% by year-end. Seven economists predict the rate will be 4.00%, while only one expects a drop to 3.50%.
CAD/JPY saw a notable decline after briefly rising to 109.03 earlier this week. A couple of factors could be in force today. BoC’s decision and statement, overall risk sentiment, and the risks for further declines in oil prices could all impact the pair’s next move.
Technically, rebound from 101.63 is still in favor to continue as long as 106.21 support holds. Above 109.03 will target 61.8% retracement of 118.85 to 101.63 at 112.27. However, firm break of 106.21 will argue that the rebound has completed and bring deeper fall back to retest 101.63 low.
WTI crude oil dropped sharply overnight, losing more than -4% and falling to its lowest level since last December. A combination of bearish factors contributed to this steep decline. The 70 psychological level is now critical for support, and if broken decisively, it could lead to an accelerated drop toward the 2023 low of around 63.
The decline was triggered by news that Libya’s rival governments may reach a deal to restore disrupted oil production. Oil prices were already facing downward pressure as OPEC+ prepares to increase output in the coming weeks. Further fueling concerns, weak US ISM manufacturing data, along with China’s disappointing Caixin PMI release earlier this week, raised demand worries for oil.
From a technical perspective, WTI remains bearish as long as the 72.57 resistance level holds. The falling trendline support at 69.47, near the 70 psychological level, is the key area to watch. A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside momentum.
Technically, near term outlook in WTI would stay bearish as long as 72.57 supported turn resistance holds. Falling trend line support (now at 69.47), which is close to 70 psychological level, is the key level the defend. Decisive break there could trigger downside acceleration.
Price actions from 95.50 (2023 high) are seen as the second leg of the pattern from 63.67 (2023 low). Fall from 87.84 is the third leg of the decline from 95.50. Any downside acceleration below the mentioned channel support could easily push WTI to 63.67/67.79 support before bottoming.
Eurozone PMI services final and PPI will be released in European session, and UK PMI services final will also be published. Later in the day, US will release trade balance and Fed’s Beige Book report. BoC rate decision would be the main highlight and Canada will also release trade balance.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6681; (P) 0.6738; (R1) 0.6769;
AUD/USD’s breach of 0.6696 support indicates that 0.6823 is already a short term top and deeper correction is underway. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.6348 to 0.6823 at 0.6642. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6529. On the upside, though, above 0.6750 support turned resistance will bring retest of 0.6823 instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.
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