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Momentum investors look to ride bullish trends where buyers are in control.
And pairing the strategy with the Zacks Rank makes the approach even more potent. Three stocks – EMCOR EME, Progressive PGR, and Sprouts Farmers Market SFM – fit the strategy.
All three have seen positive price action recently, displaying relative strength compared to major indices. In addition, all three sport a favorable Zacks Rank, reflecting upward-trending earnings estimate revisions.
Below is a chart illustrating the performance of each over the last month, with the S&P 500 blended in as a benchmark.
Let’s take a closer look at each.
EMCOR Posts Record Results
EMCOR, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is a leading provider of mechanical and electrical construction, industrial and energy infrastructure, and building services for a diverse range of businesses.
Sales expectations for the company melted higher after a recent guidance upgrade that followed its latest record-breaking quarterly release. The company posted both record sales and diluted EPS, owing to the red-hot demand it’s been witnessing.
Below is a chart illustrating the company’s sales on a quarterly basis.
PGR Shares Keep Climbing
Progressive is a leading independent agency writer of private passenger auto coverage and the market share leader for motorcycle products since 1998. Analysts have raised their earnings expectations across the board, landing the stock into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The stock remains a prime consideration for growth-focused investors, with consensus expectations for its current fiscal year (FY24) suggesting 110% earnings growth. Peeking ahead to FY25, expectations currently allude to an additional 4.5% growth in earnings on nearly 15% higher sales.
SFM Sees Bullish Outlook
Sprouts Farmers Market operates a unique grocery model that features fresh produce, a foods section, and a vitamin department focused on overall wellness. The stock holds the highly-coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), with its outlook moving higher across the board following robust quarterly results.
As highlighted below, the outlook for its current and next fiscal year have become notably bullish over recent months, likely to continue powering shares higher.
Bottom Line
Momentum investing is all about riding bullish trends where buyers are in control.
And buyers have certainly been in control of all three stocks above – EMCOR EME, Progressive PGR, and Sprouts Farmers Market SFM – with shares of each soaring over the last month.
In addition to considerable momentum, all three sport a favorable Zacks Rank, reflecting upward trending estimate revisions among analysts.
Zacks Investment Research
U.S. retail sales defied expectations in August, posting a modest 0.1% rise from July. While declines in auto sales and gasoline receipts weighed on overall performance, a rise in spending on online shopping, sporting goods, health and personal care, and garden stores provided a much-needed boost, highlighting consumer resilience.
This modest growth in retail sales signals that the economy is holding steady despite the underlying inflationary pressures. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales in August saw a commendable 2.1% increase. Retailers such as Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. BOOT, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM and Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL are well-positioned to benefit from this uptick in consumer activity.
Steady wage gains have played a pivotal role in sustaining consumer spending momentum. With inflation showing signs of easing, purchasing power is gradually improving, fueling further spending in the coming months. Meanwhile, economists are anticipating a measured response to the rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could lower borrowing costs, supporting both consumer spending and business investment.
Breaking Down Retail Sales Numbers
Building material, garden equipment & supplies dealers, along with health & personal care stores, saw month-on-month increases of 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively. Sales at sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments & bookstores rose by 0.3%, while miscellaneous stores experienced a 1.7% increase. Non-store retailers, primarily online, reported a 1.4% rise.
Conversely, clothing & accessories stores saw a 0.7% decline in sales, and general merchandise stores experienced a 0.3% drop. Sales at food services & drinking places remained unchanged.
Motor vehicle & parts dealers recorded a 0.1% decrease in sales. Furniture & home furnishing stores saw a 0.7% drop, while electronics & appliance stores experienced a 1.1% decline. Sales at food and beverage stores fell by 0.7%, and receipts at gasoline stations decreased by 1.2%.
Past-Year Stock Price Performance of BOOT, ANF, SFM & BURL
4 Top Retail Stocks:
Boot Barn Holdings: Store Expansion & Customer Engagement
Boot Barn Holdings, a leading retailer specializing in western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories for all ages, presents a compelling investment opportunity. The company is well-positioned for sustained growth, thanks to its expanding store network, growing and loyal customer base, and focus on high-margin exclusive brands. Strategic investments in new store openings are set to enhance market presence and drive incremental revenues. Boot Barn Holdings’ commitment to bolstering e-commerce and omnichannel capabilities is likely to boost online sales and improve customer engagement.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn Holdings’ current financial-year sales and earnings per share (EPS) suggests growth of 11.6% and 10.7%, respectively, from the year-ago period. BOOT, which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.1%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Abercrombie & Fitch: Brand Visibility & Global Expansion
Abercrombie & Fitch is an appealing investment opportunity, distinguished by its effective integration of digital and physical retail channels. This seamless approach enhances the shopping experience, leading to increased customer satisfaction and loyalty. The company’s strategic marketing efforts, including targeted campaigns in key markets, have elevated brand visibility and attracted new customers. By introducing innovative product lines that cater to specific customer needs, Abercrombie & Fitch has expanded its brand appeal. Its regional focus on the Americas, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific) provides a strong foundation for continued global growth.
This leading, global, omnichannel specialty retailer of apparel and accessories for men, women and kids has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 13.1% and 63.4% from the year-ago period. ANF sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Sprouts Farmers: Organic Products & Competitive Pricing
Sprouts Farmers, navigating a fragmented grocery sector, presents a compelling investment opportunity. The company employs a multifaceted strategy to broaden its customer base and meet shifting consumer preferences. By focusing on product innovation, targeted marketing and competitive pricing, Sprouts Farmers effectively aligns its offerings with diverse customer needs. The company’s commitment to offering fresh, natural and organic products aligns with the growing consumer demand for healthier food options.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers’ current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 9.6% and 18.7%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. SFM, which sports a Zacks Rank #1, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.
Burlington: Merchandising Enhancements & Store Productivity
Burlington Stores is a nationally recognized off-price retailer. The company has demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to consumer trends, which gives it a competitive edge in the retail landscape. By staying in tune with customer preferences and adjusting its product offerings, Burlington Stores is well-positioned to capture additional market share. The company has balanced promotions with regular price sales, appealing to budget-conscious shoppers while protecting margins. Its strategic initiatives, including enhancing merchandising capabilities and optimizing store operations, have supported revenue growth. With targeted store openings, relocations and real-time inventory management, Burlington has seized opportunities and improved store productivity.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington Stores’ current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 10.1% and 30.5%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.4%, on average.
Zacks Investment Research
Activity in the stock market over the last three months has been marked by a notable rise in volatility and a flat performance from the broad market. However, by using the Zacks Rank, and looking beneath the surface, investors may be able to find big winners regardless of the market environment.
Below I have highlighted three stocks with top Zacks Ranks that have massively outperformed the market over the last three months and enjoy catalysts for further price appreciation. SharkNinja, Inc. (SN), KT (KT) and The Progressive (PGR) all boast upward trending earnings revisions, reasonable valuations and strong momentum among other factors.
SharkNinja, Inc: Non-Stop Stock Momentum
SharkNinja is a leading home appliance and consumer goods company known for its innovative and high-quality products. It operates two main brands: Shark, which specializes in vacuum cleaners, steam mops, and other floor-care solutions, and Ninja, which offers kitchen appliances like blenders, air fryers, and coffee makers.
The company has built a strong reputation for creating products that combine cutting-edge technology with user-friendly design, catering to a broad range of consumers. SharkNinja has grown rapidly, becoming a prominent player in the global home appliance market.
SharkNinja has experienced a strong earnings revision trend over the past year, as its stock price surged from $30 to $100. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), signaling its solid earnings momentum. Analysts have been consistently revising their estimates upward, with earnings projections for the current year increasing by 10.7% and next year's estimates rising by 11.6%.
Additionally, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to climb by 31.4% this year to $4.23 per share and 13.9% next year to $4.81 per share.
SharkNinja is currently trading at 26.6x forward earnings, reflecting its strong stock price appreciation over the past year. Despite the impressive rally from $30 to $100, the stock remains valued near the market average, making it relatively attractive compared to other growth stocks. What makes SharkNinja even more compelling is its projected annual EPS growth of 17.5% over the next 3-5 years, positioning the company as a standout opportunity for investors seeking both value and robust long-term growth potential.
KT: Cheap Valuation and Heft Dividend
KT is South Korea's largest telecommunications company, providing a wide range of services including mobile, broadband, and fixed-line communications. Formerly known as Korea Telecom, the company plays a key role in the country's tech infrastructure, offering advanced 5G services and expanding into digital platforms, AI, cloud computing, and media content.
KT is a leader in innovation within the telecom sector and has been pivotal in South Korea’s digital transformation, with a focus on smart city development and next-generation communication technologies.
Although KT doesn’t not have as much analyst coverage as most domestic stocks, it still boasts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating. Even more notable is its recent stock price action. In the chart below we can see the KT share price has been trading sideways for more than two decades. But now it is approaching its 20-year high, and it has the wind in its sails. KT is expected to grow its EPS 11.3% annually over the next three to five years and currently sits in the Top 10% (24 out of 250) of the Zacks Industry Rank.
Image Source: TradingView
KT Corp is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 8.4x, which is below its 10-year median of 9.6x, signaling a potential value opportunity. The stock also has an attractive PEG ratio of 0.75, driven by its forecasted annual EPS growth of 11.3%, indicating strong growth at a reasonable price. Additionally, KT offers a solid 3.8% dividend yield and has raised its dividend by an average of 13.7% annually over the last five years, though it did lower the payment by 3.3% in the past year. This combination of value, growth, and income makes KT appealing for long-term investors.
The Progressive: One of the Best Stocks in the Market
The Progressive is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States, specializing in vehicle insurance for cars, motorcycles, boats, and RVs. Founded in 1937, Progressive is known for its innovative approach to insurance, offering usage-based policies through its Snapshot program, which tailors premiums based on driving behavior.
In addition to auto insurance, the company provides home, renters, and commercial insurance. Progressive is recognized for its direct-to-consumer model, competitive pricing, and strong customer service, making it a major player in the U.S. insurance market.
The Progressive Corporation holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, driven by a strong earnings revisions trend that has been climbing since last summer, alongside a stock price that has more than doubled. In the past two months, current quarter earnings estimates have surged by an impressive 24.4%, with FY24 estimates up 7% and FY25 rising by 6%. Furthermore, Progressive's sales are projected to grow 19.7% this year and 14.2% next year, signaling robust top-line growth to complement its earnings momentum.
PGR is currently trading at a one-year forward earnings multiple of 20.8x, which is above its 10-year median of 17.2x but still below the broader market average. Despite the stock's significant rally over the past year, its PEG ratio remains particularly attractive at 0.73, reflecting EPS growth forecasts of 27.3% annually over the next three to five years. I have been highlighting these exact catalysts for nearly a year and they are just as true today as they were six months ago.
Should Investors Buy SharkNinja, KT, or Progressive?
Each of these companies offers a compelling investment case with strong momentum, earnings growth, and favorable valuations. SharkNinja has benefited from a surge in its stock price and upward revisions in earnings, yet still trades at a reasonable valuation considering its growth potential. KT provides an attractive value opportunity with its low earnings multiple and solid dividend yield, while Progressive continues to be a standout in the insurance sector with strong earnings growth and a PEG ratio that remains compelling even after its stock rally.
For investors looking for stocks with a combination of upward momentum, solid earnings revisions, and strong growth prospects, SharkNinja, KT, and Progressive each offer unique opportunities in different sectors, making them attractive additions to a diversified portfolio. Whether seeking growth, value, or a mix of both, these underfollowed stocks are worth serious consideration.
Zacks Investment Research
Consistent sales growth is key, as it’s the foundation of generating profits. Strong revenue generation allows companies to achieve scaling efficiencies, generate continuous shareholder value, and many other clear benefits.
When it comes to top line strength, three companies – Comfort Systems USA FIX, Arista Networks ANET, and EMCOR Group EME – have all posted sizable sales growth rates over recent years.
In addition, all three currently sport a favorable Zacks Rank, reflecting optimism among analysts. For those seeking top line compounders, let’s take a closer look at each.
FIX Keeps Data Centers Cool
Comfort Systems USA, a current Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), offers comprehensive heating, ventilation, and air conditioning installation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services.
The company provides chillers, cooling towers, and other critical components in data centers, making it a somewhat under-the-radar play on the AI frenzy. Analysts have been notably bullish concerning its current fiscal year, with the $13.79 Zacks Consensus EPS estimate up 50% over the last year and suggesting 60% Y/Y growth.
Top line revisions have moved similarly, also brightening its outlook in a big way. FIX’s sales growth has been remarkable over recent quarters, posting double-digit percentage year-over-year growth rates in 12 consecutive periods.
Sales have exploded in recent quarters, as shown below.
And the CEO maintains a rosy outlook, delivering this statement following its Q2 results, ‘Same-store backlog is 25% above last year, demand continues at unprecedented levels and our job pipelines are robust. Considering these factors, we remain optimistic that our strong results will continue in the second half of 2024 and into 2025.’
ANET Shares Reflect AI Play
Arista Networks, a current Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), is an industry leader in data-driven, client-to-cloud networking for large AI, data center, campus, and routing environments. Analysts have taken their earnings expectations higher across the board.
Shares have been red-hot over the last year thanks to robust quarterly results stemming from unrelenting demand, gaining nearly 100% compared to the S&P 500’s 28% gain. The company again posted strong results in its latest release, enjoying margin expansion alongside a 30% pop in EPS.
The company’s margins have been moving in the right direction over recent periods, as shown below. Please note that the chart is on a trailing twelve-month basis.
And the strong sales growth is slated to continue for some time thanks to red-hot demand, with the $6.8 billion expected in its current fiscal year up 8% over the last year and suggesting 17% growth. Peeking a bit ahead, the company is expected to see another 20% sales increase in FY25.
EMCOR Reports Record Results
EMCOR, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is a leading provider of mechanical and electrical construction, industrial and energy infrastructure, and building services for a diverse range of businesses.
Sales expectations melted higher after a recent guidance upgrade that followed its latest record-breaking quarterly release. The company posted both record sales and diluted EPS.
Shares could interest those with an appetite for income, currently yielding a modest 0.3% annually. While the yield is nothing to write home about, the company’s 25% five-year annualized dividend growth rate overall reflects a shareholder-friendly nature.
Steady demand has kept the company’s top line healthy, seeing consistent growth over recent years.
Bottom Line
Strong revenue generation leads to many positives, such as scaling efficiencies and meaningful earnings growth.
And when it comes to strong sales trends, all three companies above – Comfort Systems USA FIX, Arista Networks ANET, and EMCOR Group EME – precisely fit the criteria.
Zacks Investment Research
Top Wall Street analysts changed their outlook on these top names. For a complete view of all analyst rating changes, including upgrades and downgrades, please see our analyst ratings page.
Considering buying SBUX stock? Here’s what analysts think:
Read Next:
Latest Ratings for SBUX
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
Feb 2022 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | |
Feb 2022 | MKM Partners | Maintains | Buy | |
Feb 2022 | Credit Suisse | Maintains | Outperform |
View More Analyst Ratings for SBUX
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Progressive (PGR) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this insurer have returned +7.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.6% change. During this period, the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, which Progressive falls in, has gained 3.7%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Progressive is expected to post earnings of $3.21 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +53.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +18.1%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $12.87 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +110.6%. This estimate has changed +5.9% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $13.40 indicates a change of +4.1% from what Progressive is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +4.7%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Progressive is rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Progressive, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $18.89 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +20.3%. For the current and next fiscal years, $73.91 billion and $84.43 billion estimates indicate +19.7% and +14.2% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Progressive reported revenues of $18.26 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +19.9%. EPS of $2.65 for the same period compares with $0.50 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $18.02 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.35%. The EPS surprise was +33.17%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Progressive is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Progressive. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
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