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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Aflac . Shares have added about 7.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Aflac due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Aflac Q2 Earnings Beat on Strong Investment Income
Aflac Incorporated reported second-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $1.83, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.1%. Also, the bottom line increased 15.8% year over year.
Aflac’s revenues decreased from $5.2 billion in the year-ago quarter to $5.1 billion in the quarter under review. However, the top line beat the consensus mark by 17.4%.
The better-than-expected quarterly results were supported by lower benefits and claims, operating expenses and higher investment income, signaling its effective investment strategies. Moreover, premium sales figures improved in both segments. However, a decline in net earned premiums in the Japan segment partially offset the positives.
Q2 Performance
Adjusted net investment income increased 15.8% year over year to $1 billion.
Total net benefits and claims of $1.9 billion decreased 8.4% year over year in the second quarter. Total acquisition and operating expenses decreased 4.1% year over year to $1.2 billion.
Pre-tax earnings rose 10.6% year over year to $2 billion in the second quarter.
Inside AFL’s Segments
Aflac Japan: The segment’s adjusted revenues decreased 9.7% year over year to $2.4 billion in the quarter under review. This beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a small margin. Total net earned premiums of $1.7 billion dropped 16.9% year over year due to limited pay products attaining paid-up status and the implementation of a reinsurance transaction earlier. This metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7%.
Adjusted net investment income increased 13.8% year over year to $725 million due to higher variable investment income, the impact of the weakening Yen and lower hedge costs. Pre-tax adjusted earnings of the segment amounted to $864 million, which increased 5.1% year over year in the second quarter. This metric beat the consensus mark by 11.6%.
New annualized premium sales of $108 million improved 4.5% year over year due to strong new first-sector sales. The benefit ratio of the segment was 66.9% in the second quarter.
Aflac U.S.: The segment’s adjusted revenues increased 1.3% year over year to $1.7 billion in the quarter under review. However, this missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.6%. Total net earned premiums climbed 2.1% year over year to $1.5 billion due to sales recovery. This metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.2%.
Adjusted net investment income of $218 million climbed 7.4% year over year on the back of increased variable investment income and a move toward higher-yielding fixed-income investments. Moreover, the metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7%. Pretax adjusted earnings of the segment were $383 million, up 3.8% year over year in the second quarter thanks to lower expenses, partly offset by higher benefits recognized. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1%.
Aflac’s U.S. sales of $331 million rose 2% year over year. The second-quarter benefit ratio came in at 46.7%.
Financial Position (as of Jun 30, 2024)
Aflac exited the second quarter with total cash and cash equivalents of $6.1 billion, which increased from $4.3 billion at 2023-end. Total assets fell to $120.2 billion from $126.7 billion at 2023-end.
Adjusted debt increased to $7.2 billion from $6.8 billion at 2023-end. Adjusted debt to adjusted capitalization, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, was 19.5%, which improved 20 basis points (bps) from 2023-end. While it has no debt maturities in less than a year, total debt maturities worth $1.8 billion are expected within the next five years.
Total shareholders' equity of $26 billion increased from $22 million at 2023-end.
Adjusted book value per share increased 12.1% year over year to $52.26. Adjusted return on equity, excluding foreign currency impact of 14.8%, improved 90 bps year over year.
Capital Deployment
Aflac bought back 9.3 million shares worth $800 million in the second quarter. It had 59.2 million shares left for buyback as of the second-quarter end.
Management announced dividends of 50 cents per share for the third quarter. The dividend will be paid out on Sep 2, 2024, to shareholders of record as of Aug 21.
Outlook
Aflac estimates improved sales in its Japan business for 2024, buoyed by its focus on third-sector products, introducing these to younger customers and sales campaigns. Management also remains optimistic about profitable growth within its U.S. business. Improving productivity, underwriting discipline and expense management are likely to bolster its margins. New products and distribution strategies are expected to benefit both segments.
It expects the benefit ratio in the Aflac Japan unit to stay within 66-68% in 2024, while the same in Aflac U.S. is likely to be in the 45-47% range.
The expense ratio for Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. are estimated to stay within 19-21% and 38-40%, respectively, in 2024.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Aflac has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Aflac has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Aflac belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Accident and Health industry. Another stock from the same industry, Amerisafe , has gained 6.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.
Amerisafe reported revenues of $76.01 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.4%. EPS of $0.58 for the same period compares with $0.73 a year ago.
Amerisafe is expected to post earnings of $0.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -8.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.6%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Amerisafe. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
Zacks Investment Research
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Unum . Shares have lost about 4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Unum due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Unum Group Q2 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
Unum Group’s second-quarter 2024 operating net income of $2.16 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.9%. The bottom line increased 4.8% year over year. The quarterly results reflected favorable recoveries in the group long-term disability product line, in-force block growth, higher sales, premium growth and improved persistency. Favorable benefit experience in the product lines also added to the upside.
Operational Update
Total operating revenues of Unum Group were $3.2 billion, up 4.2% year over year, driven by higher premium income, other income and improved net investment income. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.
Premiums increased 4.7% from the prior-year quarter to $2.6 billion. The figure matched our estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Total benefits and expenses increased 4.7% year over year to $2.7 billion, largely attributable to higher policy benefits, including remeasurement gain, commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and other expenses. The figure matched our estimate.
Quarterly Segment Update
Unum U.S.: Premium income was $1.7 billion, up 5.5% year over year.
Adjusted operating income rose 4.2% year over year to $357.5 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $357.2 million. Our estimate was $323.8 million.
Unum International: Premium income of $228.8 million increased 10.1% year over year. Adjusted operating income was $42.5 million, down 2.3% year over year. Our estimate was $37.4 million. The Unum U.K. line of business premium income was £151.8 million, up 6.1% from the year-ago quarter due to in-force block growth. Adjusted operating income, in local currency, of £32.5 million was down 5.2% from a year ago.
The benefit ratio was 69.5, which improved 280 basis points (bps) due to favorable recoveries in the group long-term disability product line. Sales increased 5.7% to £44.3 million. Persistency increased in the group long-term disability and group life product line but decreased in the supplemental line of business.
Colonial Life: Premium income increased 3.6% from the prior-year figure to $446.2 million due to higher prior period sales and favorable persistency.
Sales increased 0.7% from the year-ago figure to $122.9 million. Adjusted operating income increased 1.2% from the prior-year period to $116.9 million. Our estimate was $106.7 million while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $118.1 million. Persistency was 78.2% in the first half of 2024, which expanded 70 bps year over year. The benefit ratio improved 50 bps year over year to 47.8, primarily due to favorable benefit experience in the life and accident, sickness and disability product lines.
Closed Block: Adjusted operating income was $51.6 million, which increased 0.7% year over year. Our estimate was $31.5 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was $33.6 million.
Corporate: The segment incurred an adjusted operating loss of $45.3 million against $34.9 million earned in the year-ago quarter. The loss was primarily due to a decrease in net investment income, attributable to increased allocation to lines of business. Our estimate for loss was $44.8 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at a loss of $44.5 million.
Capital Management
As of Jun 30, 2024, the weighted average risk-based capital ratio for the company’s traditional U.S. insurance companies was approximately 470%. Unum Group exited the second quarter of 2024 with liquidity worth $1.3 billion.
Book value per share grew 18.2% year over year to $47.06 as of Jun 30, 2024.
UNM bought back 3.5 shares for $179.8 million.
2024 Guidance
Riding on the solid first half of 2024, UNM increased the outlook for after-tax adjusted operating income per share to 10-15% from the earlier guidance of 7-9%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, Unum has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Unum has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Unum belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Accident and Health industry. Another stock from the same industry, Amerisafe , has gained 4.4% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2024.
Amerisafe reported revenues of $76.01 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.4%. EPS of $0.58 for the same period compares with $0.73 a year ago.
Amerisafe is expected to post earnings of $0.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -8.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.8%.
Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
Zacks Investment Research
On CNBC's “Mad Money Lightning Round,” Jim Cramer recommended buying Applied Materials, Inc. . “I think that the company is doing well. I think that the government is not crazy about their posture, because they do so much business in China,” he added.
When asked about Aflac Incorporated , he said, “It's not my fave, not my fave. I do like Chubb Ltd in the insurance business. But that's really about it.”
“We're going to steer clear of Albemarle ,” Cramer said.
When asked about Elevance Health, Inc. , he said, “UnitedHealth Group Inc is still the cream of the crop.”
Snap is “really not, it's not investable,” he said. “They seem like an irrelevant company.”
The "Mad Money" host said Main Street Capital Corporation is a “business development company. I have never trusted business development companies,”
Cramer said Alibaba Group Holding Limited is an "incredibly cheap stock, alright. They're going to report a great number, and then there's always going to be something that people don't like, and then they sell it down."
Price Action:
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
AMERISAFE, Inc.’s AMSF shares have lost 5.3% since it reported second-quarter 2024 results on Jul 29. Investors may have been worried about weakness in underwriting results inducing a deterioration in the net combined ratio. An elevated operating expense level, resulting from an increase in loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, underwriting and other operating costs and policyholder dividends, also contributed to the downside. Improved audit premiums partially offset the negatives.
AMSF reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 58 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.9%. Moreover, the bottom line dipped 20.5% year over year.
Operating revenues improved 3.4% year over year to $76 million. The top line beat the consensus mark by 2.4%.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AMERISAFE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | AMERISAFE, Inc. Quote
Q2 Performance
Net premiums earned of $68.6 million improved 4.6% year over year in the quarter under review and outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $66 million. The metric benefited from improved contributions from payroll audits and related premium adjustments as a result of persistent payroll strength.
Net investment income dipped 3.6% year over year to $7.4 million due to a reduced portfolio size. However, this was partially offset by improved reinvestment rates. The metric fell short of the consensus mark of $7.8 million. Fee and other losses were $75 million.
AMERISAFE reported a pre-tax underwriting profit of $6.5 million, which declined 31.2% year over year.
Total expenses escalated 10.7% year over year to $62.1 million in the second quarter.
Operating net income of $11.1 million decreased 20.2% year over year.
The net combined ratio deteriorated 510 basis points (bps) year over year to 90.5% and came higher than the consensus mark of 90%. The metric suffered due to a deteriorating net loss ratio.
Financial Update (as of Jun 30, 2024)
AMERISAFE exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $30.6 million, which declined 20.9% from the 2023-end level.
Total assets of $1.2 billion increased 0.4% from the figure in 2023-end.
Shareholders' equity of $301 million grew 2.9% from the 2023-end level.
Book value per share was $15.78 as of Jun 30, 2024, which improved 3.3% from the 2023-end figure.
Return on average equity deteriorated 400 bps year over year to 14.6% in the quarter under review.
Dividend Update
Management announced a quarterly cash dividend of 37 cents per share, which will be paid out on Sep 20, 2024, to its shareholders of record as of Sep 6.
Zacks Rank
AMERISAFE currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performances of Other Insurers
Of the insurance industry players that have reported second-quarter 2024 results so far, the bottom-line results of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MMC, Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO and Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Marsh & McLennan reported second-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $2.41, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8%. The bottom line advanced 10% year over year. Consolidated revenues rose 6% year over year to $6.2 billion. The figure also improved 6% on an underlying basis. The top line, however, fell short of the consensus mark by 1%. MMC’s adjusted operating income was $1.72 billion, which grew 11% year over year. Adjusted operating margin improved 130 bps year over year to 29%.
The Risk and Insurance Services segment’s revenues were $4.02 billion, which advanced 8% year over year and 7% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income advanced 12% year over year to $1.34 billion. Revenues of Marsh, a unit within the segment, improved 8% year over year and 7% on an underlying basis to $3.27 billion. In the United States/Canada, underlying revenues grew 6% year over year. International operations also witnessed underlying revenue growth of 7%.
Brown & Brown’s second-quarter adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.8%. The bottom line increased 17.7% year over year. Total revenues of $1.2 billion beat the consensus estimate by 3.3%. The top line improved 12.5% year over year. The upside can be primarily attributed to commission and fees, which grew 11.4% year over year to $1.1 billion.
Organic revenues improved 10% to $1 billion. Investment income more than doubled year over year to $22 million. Adjusted EBITDAC was $420 million, up 17.3% year over year. EBITDAC margin expanded 150 bps year over year to 35.7%.
Kinsale Capital delivered second-quarter net operating earnings of $3.75 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.5%. The bottom line increased 30.4% year over year. Operating revenues jumped 45.1% year over year to $378 million. Revenues beat the consensus estimate of $377 million. Gross written premiums of $529.8 million rose 20.9% year over year. Net written premiums climbed 17.9% year over year to $430.2 million.
Net investment income increased 48.3% year over year to $35.8 million. Kinsale Capital’s underwriting income was $76.1 million, which grew 23.6% year over year. The combined ratio deteriorated 100 bps to 77.7% in the quarter under review. The expense ratio deteriorated 10 bps to 21.1, while the loss ratio deteriorated 60 bps to 56.6.
Zacks Investment Research
Aflac came out with quarterly earnings of $1.83 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.59 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.58 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 15.09%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurer would post earnings of $1.58 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.66, delivering a surprise of 5.06%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Aflac, which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Accident and Health industry, posted revenues of $5.14 billion for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.41%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $5.17 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Aflac shares have added about 15.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 14%.
What's Next for Aflac?
While Aflac has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Aflac: unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.59 on $4.35 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $6.44 on $17.31 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Accident and Health is currently in the bottom 16% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, Trupanion , is yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2024. The results are expected to be released on August 8.
This provider of medical insurance covering cats and dogs is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +45.5%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 31.7% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.
Trupanion's revenues are expected to be $309.82 million, up 14.5% from the year-ago quarter.
Zacks Investment Research
For the quarter ended June 2024, Amerisafe reported revenue of $76.01 million, up 3.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.58, compared to $0.73 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +2.44% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $74.2 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.61, the EPS surprise was -4.92%.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how Amerisafe performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
View all Key Company Metrics for Amerisafe here>>>
Shares of Amerisafe have returned +15.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.2% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
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