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Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.
The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.
Since a changing earnings picture is a powerful factor influencing near-term stock price movements, the Zacks rating system is very useful for individual investors. They may find it difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, as these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time.
As such, the Zacks rating upgrade for Mid Penn Bancorp is essentially a positive comment on its earnings outlook that could have a favorable impact on its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices
The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.
For Mid Penn Bancorp, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions
As empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, tracking such revisions for making an investment decision could be truly rewarding. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Earnings Estimate Revisions for Mid Penn Bancorp
For the fiscal year ending December 2024, this company is expected to earn $2.81 per share, which is a change of 4.1% from the year-ago reported number.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Mid Penn Bancorp. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 5.1%.
Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
The upgrade of Mid Penn Bancorp to a Zacks Rank #1 positions it in the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
Here are three stocks with buy rank and strong value characteristics for investors to consider today, September 12:
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. COOP: This mortgage servicing company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.2% over the last 60 days.
MR. COOPER GROUP INC Price and Consensus
MR. COOPER GROUP INC price-consensus-chart | MR. COOPER GROUP INC Quote
Mr. Cooper Group has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.82 compared with 11.80 for the industry. The company possesses a Value Score of B.
MR. COOPER GROUP INC PE Ratio (TTM)
MR. COOPER GROUP INC pe-ratio-ttm | MR. COOPER GROUP INC Quote
MPLX LP MPLX: This midstream energy company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.6% over the last 60 days.
MPLX LP Price and Consensus
MPLX LP price-consensus-chart | MPLX LP Quote
MPLX LP has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.97 compared with 17.90 for the industry. The company possesses a Value Score of B.
MPLX LP PE Ratio (TTM)
MPLX LP pe-ratio-ttm | MPLX LP Quote
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. MPB: This bank holding company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.2% over the last 60 days.
Mid Penn Bancorp Price and Consensus
Mid Penn Bancorp price-consensus-chart | Mid Penn Bancorp Quote
Mid Penn Bancorp has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.27 compared with 11.20 for the industry. The company possesses a Value Score of B.
Mid Penn Bancorp PE Ratio (TTM)
Mid Penn Bancorp pe-ratio-ttm | Mid Penn Bancorp Quote
See the full list of top ranked stocks here.
Learn more about the Value score and how it is calculated here.
Zacks Investment Research
The financial sector is flourishing due to the high demand for financial services from businesses and individuals. The rising consumer demand for insurance and loans further fuels the industry's growth.
Given this backdrop, it could be wise to consider fundamentally strong financial stocks such as Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. , CNB Financial Corporation , and Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. , which are undervalued but poised for a comeback.
The rising consumer demand for insurance and loans is fueling the financial services industry in the United States. Globalization and urbanization are contributing to the growing demand for end-user investments. Additionally, global economic growth is driving the increased need for financial services.
The United States financial services market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% by 2032.
Additionally, the increasing awareness of insurance products in emerging markets, along with a rising demand for a variety of insurance plans, is driving market growth. This growth is further supported by the growing elderly population looking for health insurance coverage. The reinsurance market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% by 2028.
Given these favorable industry trends, let’s look at the fundamentals of the top financial stocks with strong dividend yields.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG)
HG underwrites specialty insurance and reinsurance risks in Bermuda and internationally. The company operates the Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re underwriting platforms.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, HG is trading at 5.03x, 58.5% lower than the industry average of 12.13x. Likewise, the stock’s forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales multiples of 0.45 and 0.83 are 85.9% and 71.3% lower than their respective industry averages of 3.18 and 2.91.
For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, HG’s net premium earned increased 34.2% year-over-year to $385.30 million. The company’s net income attributable to common shareholders increased 205.2% year-over-year to $157.17 million. Additionally, its income per share attributable to common shareholders increased 181.6% year-over-year to $1.38.
Street expects HG’s revenue for the year (ending December 2024) to increase 45% year-over-year to $2.28 billion. Its EPS for the same year is expected to grow 39.7% year-over-year to $3.41.
HG’s stock has gained 25% over the past three months to close the last trading session at $16.89.
HG’s solid fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of A, which translates to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by considering 118 different factors, each weighted to an optimal degree.
The stock has an A grade for Momentum and Sentiment and a B for Growth and Value. HG is ranked first among nine stocks in the A-rated Insurance - Reinsurance industry.
CNB Financial Corporation (CCNE)
CCNE operates as the bank holding company for CNB Bank that provides a range of banking products and services for individual, business, governmental, and institutional customers.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, CCNE is trading at 11.54x, 4.9% lower than the industry average of 12.13x. Likewise, the stock’s forward Price/Book multiple of 1 is 18.4% lower than their respective industry average of 31.23.
CCNE’s net interest income for the first quarter, which ended June 30, 2024, was reported at $45.72 million. Its net income came in at $12.96 million and $0.56 per share. In addition, as of June 30, 2024, the company’s total assets stood at $5.89 billion, compared to $5.66 billion as of June 30, 2023.
Analysts expect CCNE’s EPS for the third quarter ending September 2024 to be $0.58. Its revenue for the same quarter is expected to be $46.80 million. The company has surpassed EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
CCNE’s stock has gained 25.1% over the past month to close the last trading session at $25.54.
CCNE’s bright prospects are reflected in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of B, equating to a Buy in our proprietary rating system.
CCNE has an A grade for Sentiment and a B for Momentum, Value, and Stability. It is ranked #3 in the Mid-Atlantic Regional Banks industry.
In addition to the POWR Ratings we’ve stated above, we also have CCNE ratings for Quality and Growth. Get all CCNE ratings here.
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB)
MPB operates as the bank holding company for Mid Penn Bank and provides commercial banking services to individuals, partnerships, non-profit organizations, and corporations. The company offers various time and demand deposit products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, clubs, money market deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts.
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, MPB is trading at 10.80x, 10.9% lower than the industry average of 12.13x. Likewise, the stock’s forward Price/Book multiple of 0.82 is 33.4% lower than their respective industry average of 1.23.
MPB’s total interest income for the fiscal fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, came in at $37 million. Its net income available to shareholders was reported at $12.10 million and $0.62 per share.
Street expects MPB’s revenue for the third quarter ending September 2024 to increase marginally year-over-year to $43.10 million. Its EPS is expected to increase 8.8% year-over-year to $0.86 for the same quarter. The company has surpassed revenue and EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
MPB’s stock has gained 22.9% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $28.26.
MPB’s POWR Ratings reflect its promising outlook. The stock has an overall rating of B, which translates to a Buy in our proprietary rating system.
The stock has an A grade for Sentiment and a B for value, Stability, and Momentum. Within the Mid-Atlantic Regional Banks industry, MPB is ranked #5.
What To Do Next?
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HG shares were trading at $17.29 per share on Tuesday afternoon, up $0.40 (+2.37%). Year-to-date, HG has gained 15.65%, versus a 14.62% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
First Internet Bancorp came out with quarterly earnings of $0.72 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.44 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
A quarter ago, it was expected that this internet bank would post earnings of $0.55 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.59, delivering a surprise of 7.27%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
First Internet, which belongs to the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, posted revenues of $32.36 million for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.93%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $24.02 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
First Internet shares have added about 53% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 16.5%.
What's Next for First Internet?
While First Internet has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for First Internet: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.83 on $31.9 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $3.10 on $124.8 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Banks - Northeast is currently in the top 27% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Mid Penn Bancorp , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2024.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.62 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -8.8%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Mid Penn Bancorp's revenues are expected to be $41.63 million, down 0.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Zacks Investment Research
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