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American Express (AXP) ended the recent trading session at $262.18, demonstrating a -1.21% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.29%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.25%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.31%.
Shares of the credit card issuer and global payments company have appreciated by 4.87% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Finance sector's gain of 2.97% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of American Express in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on October 18, 2024. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $3.26, showcasing a 1.21% downward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $16.65 billion, up 8.28% from the year-ago period.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $13.13 per share and a revenue of $65.99 billion, representing changes of +17.13% and +9.04%, respectively, from the prior year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for American Express should also be noted by investors. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.52% upward. American Express is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Digging into valuation, American Express currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 20.22. This represents a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 11.58.
One should further note that AXP currently holds a PEG ratio of 1.47. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.09.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 66, placing it within the top 27% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors are on edge in the lead-up to the Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision that is expected to deliver the first cut to the federal funds rate in over four years.
The market is divided on the magnitude of the anticipated rate cut. Traders are assigning a 59% probability to a 50-basis-point cut, while a 41% chance is placed on a more modest 25-basis-point reduction. The size of the rate cut is crucial as it could trigger significant market reactions.
Should the Fed opt for a 50-basis-point cut, it may be perceived as an acknowledgment that interest rates are overly restrictive. This could lead to increased expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months, potentially fueling risk sentiment and driving stock prices higher.
Conversely, a 25-basis-point cut might disappoint investors who are betting on a more aggressive measure.
Since the start of 2022, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , has experienced an average move of plus or minus 1.3% during FOMC events, reflecting the market’s high sensitivity to Fed policy decisions.
Goldman Sachs equity analysts, including John Marshall, analyzed stock movements during the first rate cuts in the previous three Fed easing cycles (Sept. 18, 2007, July 31, 2019 and March 3, 2020).
The data highlights the average moves of several key S&P 500 stocks with liquid options during these periods.
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Federal Reserve illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Value investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM Score
If you like to use all three kinds of investing, then the VGM Score is for you. It's a combination of all Style Scores, and is an important indicator to use with the Zacks Rank. The VGM Score rates each stock on their shared weighted styles, narrowing down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only as a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: American Express (AXP)
Founded in 1850, NY-based American Express Company is a diversified financial services company, offering charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. American Express and its main subsidiary – American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (“TRS”) – are bank holding companies under the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956. The company offers business travel-related services through its non-consolidated joint venture, American Express Global Business Travel (the GBT JV).
AXP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of B thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 20.22; value investors should take notice.
For fiscal 2024, four analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.07 to $13.13 per share. AXP boasts an average earnings surprise of 7.7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, AXP should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider American Express?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. American Express (AXP) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.31 a share 30 days away from its upcoming earnings release on October 18, 2024.
By taking the percentage difference between the $3.31 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.26 Zacks Consensus Estimate, American Express has an Earnings ESP of +1.52%. Investors should also know that AXP is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AXP is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Healthpeak (DOC).
Healthpeak, which is readying to report earnings on November 4, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.45 a share, and DOC is 47 days out from its next earnings report.
Healthpeak's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.51% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44.
AXP and DOC's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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