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Leading insurer Aon plc AON continues to expand its analytics capabilities and gain from strong retention and new business generation. The company has seen its shares rise 17.3% in the past three months, outpacing the industry’s 15.2% growth. The company also outperformed the S&P 500’s return of 2.4% during this period. Currently trading at $349.20, AON remains just below its 52-week high of $353.54.
Given the impressive performance, can investors still consider buying AON stock, or should you book profits?
AON’s Three-Month Price Performance
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum. This proximity to its 52-week high underscores investor confidence and market optimism about this insurance brokerage company’s prospects.
Reasons to Like AON
Improving product offerings and expanding its product portfolio helps the company retainits client base and generate new businesses. For example, its recent launch of the newly integrated Radford McLagan Compensation Database will expand the analytics capabilities for its existing Human Capital clients. We expect more such moves to come in the future. This helps in organic revenue growth.
Prudent acquisitions and partnerships form one of the main growth strategies at the company and it has sealed many buyouts over the past few years to scale its business and expand product offerings. The company closed the NFP acquisition, a privately held middle-market property and casualty broker, in April 2024. It is expected to boost AON’s top line, driven primarily by incremental M&A.
The company continues to streamline operations, getting rid of less profitable assets and focusing more on improving efficiencies. Its Aon United restructuring program will support its margin expansionary targets in the long run. However, in the short run, charges from the program might tame profit growth a bit.
Its cash-generating abilities help in making shareholder-friendly moves. In 2023, the company bought back shares worth $800 million. It repurchased shares worth $500 million in the first half of 2024. It had around $2.8 billion of authorization left under its share repurchase program as of June 30, 2024. Its solid double-digit free cash flow growth outlook in the long term will allow management the financial flexibility to continue returning wealth to shareholders.
AON’s Favorable Valuation
From a valuation perspective, AON appears relatively cheap. The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 20.80X, lower than the industry average of 22.39X.
Estimates for AON
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 adjusted earnings for AON is currently pegged at $15.23 per share, indicating 7.7% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for next year suggests a further 14.4% jump. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 revenues signals 17.5% and 11.5% year-over-year growth, respectively.
Key Concerns for AON
There are a few factors that investors should keep an eye on.
The company’s long-term debt is 74.6% of total capital, significantly higher than the industry’s average of 48.4%. AON exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $974 million, significantly lower than long-term debt of $17.6 billion.
Its trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 8.2%, lagging behind the industry average of 9.7%. This indicates that the company is less efficient at generating returns from its invested capital compared to its peers, signaling weaker capital utilization.
Final Verdict: Hold AON Stock Now
While AON has strong long-term potential with a growing focus on expanding its product portfolio and scaling its business, the specific challenges facing the company cannot be ignored. AON remains one of the best-positioned professional services firms with a favorable valuation to achieve margin expansion.
Overall, the outlook is largely neutral for AON shares. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Better-Ranked Players
Investors interested in the broader Finance space may look at some better-ranked players like MGIC Investment Corporation MTG, Jackson Financial Inc. JXN and Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO. While MGIC Investment currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Jackson Financial and Brown & Brown carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGIC Investment’s current-year earnings suggests a 9.1% year-over-year increase. During the past month, MTG has witnessed one upward estimate revision against none in the opposite direction. The consensus mark for current-year revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a 4.7% increase from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jackson Financial’s current-year earnings is pegged at $18.49 per share, which indicates 44% year-over-year growth. It witnessed two upward estimate revisions in the past 60 days against no downward movement. The consensus mark for JXN’s current year revenues suggests a 116.7% surge from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brown & Brown’s 2024 earnings indicates 31% year-over-year growth. During the past 60 days, BRO has witnessed six upward estimate revisions against none in the opposite direction. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.8%.
Zacks Investment Research
As part of most compensation plans at big companies, insiders receive company stock. This means there is almost always going to be some insider selling. They may sell for many reasons, but the fact is that they buy stock for a single reason… they believe the stock is going to move higher.
Over the years I have learned that insider selling is often just noise and is often absorbed back by the company through buyback plans. This is not true of insider buying. Sometimes there is a planned purchase or series of purchases and sometimes it is a big statement buy. Knowing which is which takes a trained eye.
In this video we look at three stocks that have seen some insider buying over the last several months.
Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that has an A for Value and an A for Growth is highlighted first. This stock was left for dead at the start of the pandemic, but it has sailed on to better waters since then.
Next up is Crox CROX which also is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and also has an A for Value and an A for Growth. This stock soared after we found out that the pandemic would not kill us all and we could wear our Crox at home without anyone judging us. Since then the stock is more or less telling us that people have been replacing their Crox shoes and maybe even accessorizing them.
Brian reviews the earnings history, estimate revisions and takes a look at the chart of both of these stocks.
Finally, we look at Aon AON which is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a stock that Brian would normally never really look at. Insurance just isn’t exciting, but when Brian saw the pop in the stock after a recent miss and post-earning drift higher, he just had to highlight this stock. Brian only takes a look at the Zacks Price, Consensus and EPS surprise chart for Aon (AON) and notes that they regularly miss earnings so the recent miss should not be a big shock.
Insider Trader is a service run by Tracey Ryniec and she does a great job separating the wheat from chaff in the world of insider buying. She can spot an insider statement buy from miles away and knows when it is a clear-cut sign that outperformance lies ahead. One tip from her service is to watch for the insider buying from Chief Legal Officers, as they are not the type, generally speaking of course, who would gamble with their own money.
Take a moment and check out the Zacks Insider Trader service today!
Zacks Investment Research
Valued at a market cap of operates in the insurance sector. Based in Daytona Beach, Florida, the company provides a diverse range of insurance products and services through its Retail, National Programs, Wholesale Brokerage, and Services segments.
Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and Brown & Brown fits this criterion perfectly, exceeding the mark. Brown & Brown is recognized as the sixth-largest independent insurance brokerage in the U.S., known for its innovative risk management solutions and strong industry relationships.
While the insurance company has dipped 1.8% from its 52-week high of $106.02, achieved earlier this month, over the past three months, its shares have gained 15.6%, eclipsing the broader S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 3.7% increase during the same period.
Longer term, BRO has gained 46.4% on a YTD basis, which outpaces SPX’s 18.1% rise. Moreover, shares of Brown & Brown have surged 43.3% over the past 52 weeks, compared to SPX's 26.6% returns over the same time frame.
BRO has been trading above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages since last year despite a few fluctuations, indicating a bullish price trend.
Brown & Brown has outperformed due to significant premium rate increases across insurance lines, strategic acquisitions, and strong organic revenue growth driven by higher demand and operational efficiency. Moreover, the stock surged over 5% following its Q2 earnings release on Jul. 22 due to a better-than-expected adjusted EPS of $0.93, driven by higher commissions and fees and a doubling of investment income from rising interest rates. The company's stronger-than-expected revenue of $1.2 billion further boosted investor confidence.
Also, its rival, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. , has underperformed BRO, with a gain of 30.2% over the past 52 weeks and 33.2% on a YTD basis.
Despite BRO’s strong price action, analysts are cautiously optimistic about the stock's prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 14 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $105.17 is a premium of just 1% to current levels.
On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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