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The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Thursday, with the resource-heavy index benefiting from higher commodity prices and confidence lower interest rates are coming for the country's No.1 trading partner.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 263.97 points to end at 23,475.14, topping the prior record of 23,346.18 set on Aug.30. The biggest gainers on the day were Battery Metals and Basic Metals, up 3.5% and 3.0% respectively, followed by Utilities, up 1.8%. Health Care was the only decliner, down 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for a second day on Thursday, boosted by the supply cuts caused by Hurricane Francine's path through the Gulf of Mexico, while the International Energy Agency warned demand growth continues to wane as China's economy slows. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.66 to settle at US$68.97 per barrel, while November Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up US$1.36 to US$71.97.
Gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar weakened ahead of next week's expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$43.30 to US$2,585.70 per ounce, above the Aug.29 record close of US$2,560.30.
In stocks, B2Gold closed up $0.48, or 12.9%, to $4.20 in heavy trading after it said overnight it reached an agreement with Mali that sees expedited approvals for a for a planned expansion of its Fekola complex in the West African country.
At the moment, focus is on Air Canada , as a pilot strike that could being next week will negatively impact economic activity, Desjardins said Thursday. It is estimated that a two-week pilot strike could result in a loss to real GDP of around $1.4 billion in September. However Bloomberg reported the airline is asking the federal government to intervene and push the airline and its pilots into arbitration.
U.S. inflation slowed last month, with Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday showing a rise of 2.5% in August, down form 2.9% in July, firming expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) cut to rates next week. CIBC Economics on Thursday updated its economic and policy forecasts, and it is now looking for both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve to "run at a faster pace" with rate cuts, while ending their respective cycles just slightly lower than previously expected.
For the BoC, CIBC Economics now sees a 25bps cut in October followed-up with two consecutive 50bps reductions in December 2024 and January 2025. Thereafter, CIBC said, the BoC no longer pauses, delivers traditional sized cuts, and finishes the cycle at 2.25%, half-a-year earlier than previously expected.
For the Fed, CIBC Economics now expects a 25bps cut next week to be followed with consecutive 50bps reductions, in November and December 2024, and a move back to 25bps until a resting spot of 3.375% is reached by Q2 2025.
BMO, while believing that the market is still cautious on growth expectations and the relative value position of Canadian equities, data "shows earnings revision trends have been clearly positive since the end of the first quarter."
"In fact," says BMO's Brian Belski, "both bottom-up S&P/TSX 2024 and 2025 EPS (earnings per share) estimates have slowly but steadily been revised higher since March 31. Additionally, the breadth of positive FY1 & FY2 EPS revisions has steadily improved since troughing in late 2023 and recently passed the key threshold with over 50% of these revisions being positive."
From BMO's perspective, while the bulk of the earnings recovery expected in 2024 has been pushed out to 2025, "this improving growth profile and increasing analyst confidence will be a key fundamental support to drive TSX valuations higher into year-end and beyond."
Gold mining stocks, as tracked by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF , are enjoying a stellar rally, rising 4.3% by 11 a.m. ET, on track for its largest one-day gain since early March.
The rally in miners was driven by a surge in gold prices, which jumped 1.6% to reach an all-time high of over $2,550 per ounce on Thursday, fueled by economic data and central bank interest rate decisions.
In the U.S., the latest producer inflation report for August showed mixed results. Both the headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded monthly expectations, but on an annual basis, they fell short.
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.5%. The ECB noted it is "appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction."
This move has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid lower interest rates in Europe and expectations for a similar 25-basis-point drop in the U.S. fed funds rate next week.
Analyst Takeaways
Otavio Costa, macro strategist at Crescat Capital, highlighted that Barrick Gold Corp. , the second-largest gold miner globally, has reported its lowest annual gold production in more than 20 years.
“From this perspective, today's environment closely resembles the 1970s,” Costa wrote in a post on social media platform X.
Back then low gold prices led major mining companies to shift their focus to other metals, just before gold experienced one of the most significant bull runs in history.
Today, miners are once again diversifying into base metals, not due to low gold prices, but to capitalize on the growing demand for materials critical to electrification, like copper.
However, this time the shift isn’t driven by low prices, but by a strategic move to increase exposure to base metals like copper, which are crucial for electrification and have attracted institutional capital.
Costa argues that neglect of gold, in favor of base metals, is a potential opportunity. With fewer companies exploring and developing new gold projects, he sees several pathways for gold prices to rise, making gold-only investments particularly attractive.
However, Costa sees the limited supply as a bullish catalyst for gold, stating, "I believe it's time to be greedy when others are being fearful."
Thursday’s Seven Top Performing Gold Miners
NAME | % RETURN (1-DAY) |
Coeur Mining, Inc. | 14.52 |
B2Gold Corp. | 10.04 |
First Majestic Silver Corp. | 9.96 |
Endeavour Silver Corp. | 9.94 |
Equinox Gold Corp. | 8.09 |
OceanaGold Corporation (NYSE:OGC) | 7.18 |
New Gold Inc. | 7.01 |
Read Now:
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 164 points with all sectors higher. The biggest gainers are miners (+2.4%) and energy (+1%), followed by utilities, up 0.9%.
In stocks, B2Gold is up 10.6% and is the most actively traded after it announced overnight that it had reached an agreement with Mali over the Fekola complex. Approvals for certain permits would also be expedited.
Oil prices strengthened for a second session, boosted by the supply cuts caused by Hurricane Francine's path through the Gulf of Mexico, while the International Energy Agency warned demand growth continues to wane as China's economy slows.
Gold prices rose early on Thursday as the dollar weakened ahead of next week's expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
But natural gas edged down ahead of fresh storage data despite tight supply following Hurricane Francine's passage through the Gulf of Mexico.
In terms of domestic data today, TD Economics noted Canadian household net worth (the value of assets less liabilities) gained another $42.4 billion or 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) to $17.0 trillion in the second quarter of 2024. This is slower than the previous quarter's gain of 3.2% (or $588.9 billion).
TD said despite an acceleration in liabilities growth and a decline in real estate assets, Canadian households' wealth eked out another quarter of gains thanks to solid growth in U.S. equities and a solid contribution from savings in deposits as gains in disposable income outweighed increases in nominal consumption expenditure.
For Q3, TD said it appears households should see further gains on the asset side of their balance sheets with equity markets on both sides of the border in the black, and house prices rising. As for liabilities, lower rates are likely to gradually reignite borrowing activity, potentially putting downward pressure on net worth, but TD doesn't expect a meaningful rebound in borrowing until late 2024 or early 2025. For Q3 2024, TD anticipates moderate gains in household wealth, offering marginal support to consumer spending.
In terms of domestic equity news, focus is on Air Canada . Because of the airline's outsized role in the Canadian airline market, a prolonged pilot strike could negatively impact economic activity, Desjardins said Thursday. The last pilot strike was in 1998 and lasted for two weeks.
Desjardins estimates that a two-week pilot strike could result in a loss to real GDP of around $1.4 billion (or 0.06% month over month) in September. "A longer strike could have an even greater negative impact on the economy," Desjardins added.
However, Desjardins expects that the air transportation industry would recover by around $1.5 billion in October in the event of a two-week pilot strike similar to that in 1998.
In terms of US economic data, this morning, the PPI rose 0.2% in August, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected and following no change the month prior. Year over year, producer prices rose 1.7% in August, down from the 2.1% annual gain in July and marking the smallest annual increase since February.
For Stifel, the Bottom Line is that this morning's hotter than expected read on the PPI coupled with yesterday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the FOMC's "lingering" focus on inflation. Stifel said: "While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one weeks' time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve."
"In fact," Stifel added, "if the Fed did make a more sizable policy adjustment in September, the market would likely misread or misinterpret such action as an intention to rush back to an accommodative stance as opposed to simply reduce policy firming as inflation moves close to the target."
As such, at least for now, a 50bp cut is off the table for September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability has slipped from 59% as Friday's open to just 17% following this morning's report.
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