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Hertz Global Holdings trades more than 3% higher in Tuesday morning trading. Up 33% over the past five days, it appears deep value investors are fishing for their next big score.
The car rental company caught my attention because it entered Barchart’s Bottom 100 Stocks to Buy Monday in the 72nd position. With a weighted alpha of -72.34 compared to a 52-week change of -78.91%, the five-day run suggests it might have hit a bottom.
The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May 2020. It emerged from Chapter 11 in October 2021. With a market cap of slightly more than $1 billion, its net debt is more than 18 times this amount.
Hertz’s leverage is again out of control, bringing the possibility of Chapter 11 proceedings into play less than three years after emerging from bankruptcy.
From where I sit, it looks ready for the trash can, but the past week’s trading suggests some folks feel otherwise.
Is HTZ a value play or ready to revisit Chapter 11? Here are my thoughts on both.
It’s So Ready for Chapter 11
According to S&P Global Marketplace, Hertz’s Altman Z-score has declined over the past four quarters from 0.89 in Q3 2023 to 0.11 as of Q2 2024.
The Altman Z-score predicts a company's likelihood of going bankrupt within the next 24 months. The calculation was developed by finance professor Edward Altman in 1968 and involves numbers in the income statement and balance sheet. You can find the calculation here.
The Altman Z-score is constantly changing. When profits are higher, the score will move higher. When they don’t exist, as is the case with Hertz—in Q2 2024, it lost $865 million on a GAAP basis; it lost $440 million adjusting for one-time items—it gets worse quarter by quarter.
Any Altman Z-score less than 1.81 (the company’s is less than one-tenth of the minimum criteria) suggests a likelihood of bankruptcy in the next two years.
Google the words “Hertz bankruptcy filing 2024,” and you will get plenty of results.
On Sept. 10, the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the company must pay bondholders $270 million in interest from its previous bankruptcy proceedings. Although the bondholders received $2.7 billion from the Chapter 11 proceedings, they should have received another $270 million. This ruling refers to “make whole” payments calculated as if the company's bonds had been repaid in 2021 without the company filing for bankruptcy protection.
“It would be profoundly unfair to scrimp on the [bondholders’] interest when the junior stockholders already received a billion-dollar distribution,” Circuit Judge Thomas Ambro wrote for the 2-1 majority, Reuters reported.
It has nearly $900 million in annualized interest payments and just $573 million in cash as of June 30, down from $2.26 billion at the end of 2021.
It’s hanging on by a thread.
The Value Play
In March, former CEO Stephen Scherr stepped down from the job he'd held since February 2022. Scherr, who jumped into the top job after three decades at Goldman Sachs , doubled down on the EV bet Hertz made after emerging from bankruptcy.
By January 2024, Scherr was forced to sell off a third of its EVs because of poor demand and expensive repairs. Two months later, he was replaced by Gil West, the former COO of General Motors Cruise robotaxi business. Before that, he was COO for Delta Air Lines .
Delta CEO Ed Bastian, one of the best CEOs in the airline industry, had good things to say about West.
“Gil is a fantastic operator. We worked side-by-side for a dozen years,” Bastian said in an interview with Fortune in March. “He’s an innovator, he loves technology, he’s meticulous, he’s curious and he loves a challenge — all great attributes.”
West has since brought in several of his former Delta colleagues to work on the company’s turnaround plan. One of the Delta people, Greg May, is now in charge of fleet management for Hertz, which has struggled in the past with buying and selling vehicles.
“May will have a key role overseeing the buying and selling of rental cars, which is where the company has historically wound up in trouble. He has experience managing aircraft fleets and will now have to work with Hertz veterans in the new and used-car markets,” Bloomberg reported in July.
Barron’s reported comments from Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka that argued it will take the company time to breakeven on a free cash flow basis, which is at least $500 million EBITDA. In the 12 months ended June 30, it was -$577 million.
Hertz managed to secure $1 billion in debt in June. That should give it a little wiggle room while it continues to reconfigure its car fleet away from electric.
I’ve never been a massive fan of rental car businesses because they require an incredible amount of capital to maintain a fleet of vehicles.
However, analysts tend to agree that the demand for rental cars remains healthy, so if West and his executives can figure out how to deliver profits, not losses, over the next year, it portends good times ahead for HTZ stock.
The Bottom Line on Hertz
I wouldn’t characterize Hertz as a value play but rather a contrarian one.
The March 21/2025 $5 call looks attractive if you are an aggressive investor.
With a $0.50 ask (10% down payment), you can double your money with a $1.24 (35%) move over the next six months. In the worst-case scenario, you’re out $50 at expiry next March.
That said, I would not touch Hertz with a 10-foot pole.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones index gaining around 200 points on Monday.
Shares of Alcoa Corporation rose sharply during Monday's session after the company agreed to sell its 25.1% joint venture stake in Ma’aden for $1.1 billion, including $950 million in Ma’aden shares.
Alcoa shares jumped 6.5% to $34.63 on Monday.
Here are some other big stocks recording gains in today's session.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – September 12, 2024 – Zacks Equity Research shares Eli Lilly LLY as the Bull of the Day and Hertz Global HTZ as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Shopify SHOP, Alphabet GOOGL and Amazon AMZN.
Here is a synopsis of all five stocks.
Bull of the Day:
Eli Lilly has long been a reliable name in the healthcare sector, providing stability for investors during periods of market turbulence. As a leading pharmaceutical company, it enjoys the defensive qualities of healthcare stocks, which typically perform well even in uncertain economic conditions.
In 2022, when the broader market declined by 18%, Eli Lilly delivered an impressive 34% return. However, what sets Eli Lilly apart from other defensive stocks is its explosive growth potential, particularly in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 weight-loss drug market.
Furthermore, Eli Lilly currently boasts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, reflecting upward trending earnings revisions and increasing the odds of a near-term rally. Analysts have raised earnings estimates unanimously and across timeframes by as much as 23.4% over the last two months.
LLY is Dominating the Weight-Loss Drug Market
The GLP-1 drug market, which includes treatments for diabetes and obesity, is forecasted to grow at an astonishing rate of 20% annually through 2030. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) has already established itself as a blockbuster drug, outperforming market expectations in both efficacy and sales. With obesity rates rising globally and increased healthcare awareness, the demand for weight-loss drugs like Mounjaro is expected to surge in the coming years.
The company’s success in this space has been a key driver of its financial performance. In Q2 2024, Eli Lilly reported a 36% increase in revenue, driven largely by Mounjaro and other key drugs like Zepbound and Verzenio. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter surged 68% year-over-year, exceeding analysts’ estimates by 42%. This strong performance led Eli Lilly to raise its full-year revenue guidance by $3 billion, highlighting its confidence in sustained growth.
A Robust Pipeline and More Growth on the Horizon
Beyond weight-loss treatments, Eli Lilly boasts a rich pipeline of drugs that positions it for continued growth. Notably, the company recently received FDA approval for Kisunla, a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, and Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma in Japan.
Positive clinical trial results for tirzepatide in treating heart failure and obesity further underscore the potential of its pipeline. These developments in key therapeutic areas such as Alzheimer’s, oncology, and autoimmune disorders add more growth levers for Eli Lilly moving forward.
With revenue projected to grow 23% this year and EPS forecasted to increase by 33.3% annually over the next three to five years, Eli Lilly’s growth story is far from over. Analysts expect the company to continue delivering strong results as it expands its offerings and capitalizes on its leadership in the GLP-1 space.
Valuation Justified by Growth Prospects
At first glance, Eli Lilly’s valuation—currently trading at 38.3x next year’s earnings—might appear steep. However, considering its dominant position in a rapidly growing market, the elevated valuation may be justified. The combination of robust earnings growth, a rich drug pipeline, and strong market leadership justifies its premium valuation.
Can Eli Lilly Join the $1 Trillion Market Cap Club?
Currently, Eli Lilly’s market cap sits at approximately $535 billion. However, given the company’s growth trajectory, it is not far-fetched to imagine LLY reaching a $1 trillion market cap within the next five years.
With the GLP-1 market expected to hit $133 billion by 2030 and Eli Lilly holding a dominant position, the stock has the potential to double in value. If the company maintains its current sales growth and sales multiple, it could indeed join the exclusive trillion-dollar club.
Eli Lilly is a Defensive Play with Explosive Upside
For investors seeking a blend of stability and growth, Eli Lilly offers an attractive opportunity. Its defensive characteristics make it a solid choice during times of market volatility, while its exposure to the booming GLP-1 market and a strong pipeline of innovative drugs provide significant upside potential. With the GLP-1 market set to expand and Eli Lilly well-positioned to maintain its leadership, the stock is poised for long-term growth.
Bear of the Day:
Hertz Global business has been stagnant over the last three years, and its stock price has plunged 84% during that time. While the company is a well-known name in the rental car industry, it continues to face significant headwinds. The earnings revision trend has turned sharply negative, and despite a valuation that might catch the eye of some bargain hunters, the broader picture remains concerning.
In addition to stagnant sales growth, Hertz Global also has negative earnings and faces stiff competition in the rental car market. In this article we will cover the reasons why investors should avoid Hertz Global Stock.
Falling Sales and Earnings Estimates
Hertz Global currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) rating, reflecting downward trending earnings revisions and dimming the stock’s outlook. Analysts have unanimously lowered earnings estimates across timeframes by hefty margins.
Beyond the earnings revisions, Hertz Global has struggled with flat to declining sales growth over the last five years. Additionally, despite efforts to rebuild the business, the company remains in negative earnings territory, a troubling sign for investors.
Hertz Stock Appears Cheap
One noteworthy point is that Hertz is expecting sales of nearly $10 billion next year, while its current market capitalization is just $800 million. This gives the stock an incredibly low forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.1x, which is very cheap by any standard. However, despite this attractive valuation metric, the company has yet to show any material profits, which is critical for turning sentiment around.
Should Investors Avoid Hertz Global Stock?
While Hertz may appear undervalued from a sales perspective, the company’s declining earnings revisions, negative earnings history, and significant stock price drop make it a risky bet at this time. Until Hertz can demonstrate a turnaround in profitability or its Zacks Rank moves higher, investors would be wise to avoid the stock and look for better opportunities elsewhere.
Additional content:
Shopify Declines -12.5% YTD: Buy, Sell or Hold?
Shopify shares have lost 12.5% year to date, underperforming both the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Internet Services industry. Over the same timeframe, the sector and industry have gained 13.6% and 4.7%, respectively.
The underperformance in SHOP’s shares can be attributed to challenging macroeconomic conditions that have negatively impacted small and medium businesses, which form its major merchant base. This cohort has been suffering from persistent inflation.
Nevertheless, Shopify’s expanding merchant base is noteworthy. This has been driving its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) which surpassed $1 trillion cumulatively. Offline business surpassed $100 billion in cumulative GMV since the launch of Shopify POS.
So, is this expanding GMV bodes well for Shopify investors or are the near-term challenges too hot to handle for them?
Let’s analyze to find out.
SHOP Stock to Rebound on Expanding Clientele
Shopify’s expanding clientele is a key catalyst. The growing number of multinational brands like EVEREVE and MAJOURI on its platform is noteworthy. These brands are launching online and offline with Shopify, which, on a combined basis, includes more than 130 locations across four regions.
Merchant-friendly tools like Shop Pay, Shopify Collective, Shopify Audiences, Shopify Capital and Shop Cash offers are helping it win new merchants regularly in a challenging economic environment.
In second-quarter 2024, Shop Pay processed $16 billion in GMV and accounted for 39% of SHOP’s Gross Payments volume (GPV). In the reported quarter, GPV grew to $41.1 billion, constituting 61% of GMV processed.
Shopify recorded the highest-ever B2B GMV month with a 140% year-over-year increase fueled by the growth of Plus merchants.
Integration of Shop Pay Installments into the point-of-sale terminal and general availability of Pro makes it easier for merchants to discover and engage their customers.
Shopify plans to improve the operating efficiency of its point-of-sale offering by introducing features, including a new remote smart grid layout editor, omnichannel return rules and the ability to stack multiple discounts at checkout, making it easier for merchants to customize their promotional strategies.
Expanding Partner Base to Aid SHOP Stock
An expanding partner base that includes TikTok, Snap, Pinterest, Criteo, IBM, Cognizant, Alphabet, Amazon, Manhattan Associates, COACH and Adyen is expected to expand its merchant base further.
Alphabet division YouTube recently expanded its partnership with Shopify to bring more brands for its YouTube Shopping affiliate program.
Shopify’s strategy to focus on the core business by divesting the logistics business has been a noteworthy development. Its partnership with Amazon allows Shopify merchants to use the former’s massive fulfillment network. The relationship with Target also strengthens SHOP’s footprint.
Shopify’s expanding international footprint is noteworthy. In the second quarter, it launched a point-of-sale terminal in eight additional countries, contributing to an impressive 2.4 times increase in GMV.
SHOP Stock to Ride on Robust Q3 Guidance
Shopify offered solid guidance for the third quarter of 2024. It expects revenue growth in the low-to-mid-twenties on a year-over-year basis. The gross margin is expected to increase 50 bps sequentially.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $2.11 billion, indicating 22.89% year-over-year growth.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 27 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and suggests 12.5% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Shopify Stock Is Overvalued
The Value Score of D suggests a stretched valuation for Shopify at this moment, which makes it a risky bet for investors despite promising growth prospects.
SHOP stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month Price/Sales of 8.97X compared with the industry’s 4.87X.
Conclusion
Shopify is benefiting from strong growth in its merchant base as well as expanding its international footprint. Hence, the long-term growth prospects are hard to ignore.
However, challenging macroeconomic conditions and persistent inflation are a near-term concern, along with a stretched valuation.
Shopify currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point in the stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
Zacks Investment Research
Hertz Global (HTZ) business has been stagnant over the last three years, and its stock price has plunged 84% during that time. While the company is a well-known name in the rental car industry, it continues to face significant headwinds. The earnings revision trend has turned sharply negative, and despite a valuation that might catch the eye of some bargain hunters, the broader picture remains concerning.
In addition to stagnant sales growth, Hertz Global also has negative earnings and faces stiff competition in the rental car market. In this article we will cover the reasons why investors should avoid Hertz Global Stock.
Falling Sales and Earnings Estimates
Hertz Global currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) rating, reflecting downward trending earnings revisions and dimming the stock’s outlook. Analysts have unanimously lowered earnings estimates across timeframes by hefty margins.
Beyond the earnings revisions, Hertz Global has struggled with flat to declining sales growth over the last five years. Additionally, despite efforts to rebuild the business, the company remains in negative earnings territory, a troubling sign for investors.
Hertz Stock Appears Cheap
One noteworthy point is that Hertz is expecting sales of nearly $10 billion next year, while its current market capitalization is just $800 million. This gives the stock an incredibly low forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.1x, which is very cheap by any standard. However, despite this attractive valuation metric, the company has yet to show any material profits, which is critical for turning sentiment around.
Should Investors Avoid Hertz Global Stock?
While Hertz may appear undervalued from a sales perspective, the company’s declining earnings revisions, negative earnings history, and significant stock price drop make it a risky bet at this time. Until Hertz can demonstrate a turnaround in profitability or its Zacks Rank moves higher, investors would be wise to avoid the stock and look for better opportunities elsewhere.
Zacks Investment Research
On CNBC's “Mad Money Lightning Round,” Jim Cramer said recommended buying Vertiv Holdings Co , saying it has “come down enough.”
On July 24, Vertiv said second-quarter net sales rose 13% Y/Y to $1.953 billion, beating the consensus of $1.939 billion. Organic orders (excluding foreign exchange) rose 57% Y/Y in the quarter. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.4x in the quarter.
AES is “good,” Cramer said. “It's very inexpensive, let's go for it.”
On Aug. 1, AES reported mixed financial results for the second quarter. AES reported quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 37 cents per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $2.94 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $3.19 billion.
When asked about NextEra Energy , “I don't get this. I've got to find out what's the truth, and then we'll come back with a more considerate opinion.”
On Sept. 3, Wells Fargo analyst Neil Kalton maintained NextEra Energy with an Overweight and raised the price target from $95 to $102.
“That stock really does have me very concerned,” Cramer said when asked about Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. .
On Aug. 1, Hertz reported second-quarter revenue of $2.4 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $2.46 billion, according to estimates from Benzinga Pro. The company reported an adjusted earnings loss of $1.44 per share, missing analyst estimates for a loss of 90 cents per share.
Price Action:
Read Next:
Image: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Travel over the Labor Day holiday has picked up significantly from a year ago, data revealed.
Domestic travel is up 9% from the same period last year as American Automobile Association (AAA) booking data shows a 30% jump in trips to Seattle, partly because Seattle is a major port city for cruises to Alaska.
"This is a great time of year to take a cruise to Alaska. Crowds are smaller than earlier in the summer, the weather is still decent, although chillier than in July and August, and you may even see some fall colors," said Doreen Loofburrow, senior vice president of travel at AAA Oregon/Idaho.
Gas prices over Labor Day are averaging $3.35 a gallon nationwide, down from an average of $3.81 a gallon during the same period in 2023, according to AAA.
Read Also: Elliott Plans Meeting With Southwest Over ‘Immense’ Challenges, May Push For Board Changes
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said it plans to screen more than 17 million people at airports during what is expected to be the busiest Labor Day travel period on record from Aug. 29 into Sept. 4. TSA expects to screen 2.86 million travelers on the busiest day of Aug. 30.
The TSA said this summer’s air travel volumes have been the highest it has seen in its history, and it expects passenger volumes to be 8.5% higher than last year during this time.
“People are traveling more than ever this summer and TSA along with our airline and airport partners stand ready to close the busiest summer travel period on record during this upcoming Labor Day weekend," said TSA Administrator David Pekoske.
Price Action: Rental car companies, airlines and cruise providers gave varied performances on Wall Street into Friday’s early-afternoon trading as the busy travel period was underway.
Read Now:
Photo: Ozkan Ulucam via Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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