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Eli Lilly and Company’s LLY stock has risen 21.1% in six months compared with an increase of 10.5% for the industry. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500 as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Lilly has seen unparalleled success with its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound. In the past couple of years, it has received approvals for several new drugs like Kisunla, Omvoh and Jaypirca and witnessed pipeline and regulatory success. Its new drugs have been contributing significantly to its top-line growth in 2024. Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in areas like obesity, diabetes and Alzheimer’s.
Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze what is driving the stock price gain and how to play the stock.
Mounjaro & Zepbound: Key Top-Line Drivers for Lilly
Mounjaro and Zepbound include the same compound tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist (GIP/GLP-1 RA). The GLP-1 segment is a very important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity. Mounjaro was approved in May 2022 for type II diabetes. Zepbound was launched in November 2023 to treat obesity.
Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. Since 2020, Lilly has committed more than $18 billion to build, upgrade or acquire facilities in the United States and Europe, and the benefit of these investments is showing now as the supply of the drugs is increasing. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated sales of almost $6.7 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for around 44% of the company’s total revenues.
Tirzepatide is also being developed for other indications like obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), cardiovascular risks and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Approval for these expanded indications and launch in additional geographies can further boost sales.
Last month, Lilly launched a discounted single-dose vial version of Zepbound, which is expected to broaden access for obesity patients, especially those without insurance.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s NVO semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Wegovy sales have also remained strong. Though Novo Nordisk is also making efforts to improve the supply of its semaglutide drugs, it has not been as successful as Lilly yet.
LLY’s New Drugs & Pipeline Success
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past year. These included Omvoh for ulcerative colitis and BTK inhibitor Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Lilly expects its new drugs Mounjaro, Omvoh, Zepbound, Ebglyss and Jaypirca to drive its top line in the second half of 2024.
In July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Lilly believes Kisunla can generate blockbuster sales. Kisunla is only the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen BIIB and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi. Interestingly, Kisunla’s label mentions that physicians may consider stopping the dosing of Kisunla based on the reduction of amyloid plaques, which can prove to be a competitive advantage.
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has 11 new molecules currently in clinical development, including two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist. Several phase III data readouts are expected in 2025. While competitors like Amgen (AMGN) and Viking Therapeutics are making rapid progress in their GLP-1-based diabetes/obesity candidates, we believe they will take time to catch up.
LLY Premium Valuation, Rising Estimates
The stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2024 have risen from $13.72 to $16.49 per share over the past 60 days. For 2025, earnings estimates have risen from $19.42 to $23.97 per share over the same timeframe.
LLY Estimate Movement
Invest in LLY's Stock
Lilly has consistently reported strong revenues and profits and dealt well with expiring patents and increasing competition. The stupendous success of Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of more than $840 billion. Lilly’s stock has gone up by more than 730% in the past five years, mainly due to its solid pipeline potential, particularly its obesity drugs. The stock is also trading above its 200-day moving average since past several months and started trading above its 50-day moving average from early September.
Lilly’s revenue growth is being driven by higher demand for Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio and others, which will make up for declining sales from Trulicity. Incremental contribution for new drugs, rapid pipeline progress in areas like obesity, diabetes and Alzheimer’s and regular M&A activity will keep the stock afloat.
Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio currently based on its strong overall financial performance and robust drug pipeline. Consistently rising earnings estimates clearly highlight analysts’ optimistic outlook for further growth. Though LLY currently trades at a premium to the industry, investors should still consider adding this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock as the company is on a roll, achieving key clinical and regulatory victories and delivering exceptionally strong financial performance.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Eli Lilly and Company LLY announced that the FDA has granted approval to its IL-13 inhibitor Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) for treating moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, also called eczema. Ebglyss is approved for use in adults and children aged 12 and above who weigh at least 40 kgs and whose moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis is not well controlled with topical prescription medicines.
Ebglyss was approved in the European Union in 2023 and in Japan in January this year. The drug generated sales of $7.5 million in the first half of 2024.
Year to date, Lilly’s stock has risen 58.5% compared with the industry’s 25.2% growth. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500.
LLY Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
More on LLY’s Ebglyss
Ebglyss’ approval in the United States was based on data from ADvocate 1, ADvocate 2 and ADhere studies. Data from these studies showed that patients treated with Ebglyss experienced significant skin clearance as early as four weeks and meaningful itch relief as early as two weeks. Many people living with eczema experience poor long-term disease control and severe itch despite treatment with topicals. Ebglyss offers such patients a new first-line biologic treatment option for treating their moderate-to-severe eczema. The injection will be launched in the United States in the coming weeks.
In the United States and some countries other than Europe, Lilly owns exclusive development and commercialization rights to Ebglyss. However, in Europe, it has out-licensed rights to develop and commercialize Ebglyss for the treatment of dermatology indications to its partner Almirall.
Lilly’s Several New Drug Approvals in Past Year
Lilly gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past year, with the most important being Mounjaro and Zepbound. Mounjaro and Zepbound include the same compound, tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist (GIP/GLP-1 RA). Mounjaro was approved in May 2022 for type II diabetes. Zepbound was launched in November 2023 to treat obesity.
Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated sales of almost $6.7 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for around 44% of the company’s total revenues.
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, other new drug approvals include Omvoh for ulcerative colitis and BTK inhibitor Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Lilly expects its new drugs — Mounjaro, Omvoh, Zepbound, Ebglyss and Jaypirca — to drive its top line in the second half of 2024.
In July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Lilly believes Kisunla can generate blockbuster sales. Kisunla is only the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen BIIB and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi.
Lilly’s Zacks Rank and Other Stocks to Consider
Lilly sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Eli Lilly and Company Stock Price and Consensus
Eli Lilly and Company price-consensus-chart | Eli Lilly and Company Quote
Some other top-ranked large drugmakers are Novartis NVS and Pfizer PFE, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
In the past 60 days, 2024 earnings estimates for Pfizer have improved from $2.38 per share to $2.62 per share. For 2025, earnings estimates have improved from $2.75 per share to $2.85 per share over the same timeframe. Pfizer shares have risen 1.6% year to date.
Pfizer’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters. PFE delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 69.82%
Estimates for Novartis’ 2024 earnings have risen from $7.31 to $7.50 per share over the past 60 days. For 2025, earnings estimates have increased from $8.21 to $8.29 per share over the same timeframe. Year to date, Novartis stock has risen 14.5 %.
Novartis beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.26%.
Zacks Investment Research
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth Score
While good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum Score
Momentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM Score
If you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
Based in Cambridge, MA, Biogen Inc. is one of the world’s leading biotechnology companies, which focuses on developing innovative therapies for treating serious neurological and neurodegenerative diseases, including its core growth areas of multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and dementia, movement disorders including Parkinson's disease, neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and ophthalmology.
BIIB is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of B thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 12.13; value investors should take notice.
20 analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2024, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.48 to $16.12 per share. BIIB also boasts an average earnings surprise of 10.3%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, BIIB should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
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