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Booking Holdings (BKNG) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this online booking service have returned +7.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry, which Booking Holdings falls in, has gained 5.2%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Booking Holdings is expected to post earnings of $77.68 per share, indicating a change of +7.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $176.92 points to a change of +16.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.1%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $201.64 indicates a change of +14% from what Booking Holdings is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.1%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Booking Holdings.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Booking Holdings, the consensus sales estimate of $7.62 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +3.8%. The $22.95 billion and $24.59 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +7.4% and +7.2%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Booking Holdings reported revenues of $5.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.3%. EPS of $41.90 for the same period compares with $37.62 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.78 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.36%. The EPS surprise was +6.37%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Booking Holdings is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Booking Holdings. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
By Foo Yun Chee
BRUSSELS, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Booking.com's restrictions against hotels offering lower rates on their websites or on rival sites are unnecessary and could reduce competition, Europe's top court said on Thursday in a ruling targeting a widely used practice in the industry.
They also said, however, they were not anti-competitive under European Union (EU) law.
Known as parity clauses and inserted into contracts between online booking sites and hotels, the practice has triggered complaints by competitors and scrutiny from regulators across Europe concerned they are a bad thing for consumers.
Germany's antitrust watchdog has banned such clauses whether they apply to hotels' websites or rival accommodation sites while regulators for the EU as a whole allow such curbs only for hotels' own sites.
Landmark rules known as the Digital Markets Act that came into force last year ban large online platforms, which would include Booking.com, from using wide or narrow retail parity clauses or equivalent commercial measures.
The Luxembourg-based Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) said there was no evidence to justify them.
"It has not been established that price parity clauses, whether wide or narrow, first, are objectively necessary for the implementation of that main operation and, second, are proportionate to the objective pursued by it," judges said.
They said the restrictions may reduce competition between various hotel reservation platforms, force out small platforms and new entrants and do not appear to be necessary to ensure Booking.com's economic viability.
However the court also said that the clauses cannot be considered anti-competitive under EU antitrust laws.
"Price parity clauses cannot, in principle, be classified as 'ancillary restraints' for the purposes of EU competition law," the CJEU said.
The case involving the unit of New York-listed Booking Holdings BKNG.O came after the company applied for a declaration on whether parity clauses are valid, prompting a Dutch court to seek guidance from the CJEU.
The case is C-264/23 Booking.com and Booking.com (Deutschland).
(Reporting by Foo Yun Chee; editing by Barbara Lewis)
(( foo.yunchee@thomsonreuters.com ; +32 2 585 2866; Reuters Messaging: foo.yunchee.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))
Keywords: EU-BOOKING HLDG/ANTITRUST (PIX)
Rewrites throughout, adds tax on short-term rentals, levy on cruise ship visitors
By Stamos Prousalis and Angeliki Koutantou
ATHENS, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A ban on new licences for short-term rentals in three districts in central Athens will be in force for at least a year, the Greek government said on Monday, also raising the tax on such holiday lets.
Like many other European tourism destinations, Greece is seeking to balance a profitable industry fuelled by online platforms such as Airbnb with the needs of locals facing a housing shortage.
A lack of housing and the rising cost of living prompted the country this month to announce to increase a tax on short-term rentals, ban new licences in central Athens and give homeowners incentives to switch to long-term rentals.
Detailing that plan, Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni said on Monday that the ban for new licences on short-term rentals in three districts in central Athens could be extended beyond the initial one year.
"We have found that they (short-term rentals) operate somehow as hotels, while there is also a lot of pressure on society," Kefalogianni told reporters.
With many homeowners choosing short-term lets for their property, Athenians are having a hard time to find an affordable house to rent.
"I was looking for a house for 8-9 months and ended up in the one I'm in now," said Alma Lazi, 34, a private sector worker who lives in the central Athens borough of Pangrati.
"Even during that period when I was looking and expanding the range of areas that I was considering, I didn't find anything I could afford to maintain."
A daily tax on short-term rentals which helps the country deal with the impact of natural disasters related to climate change will be increased to 8 euros from 1.5 euros for the April-to-October period, Finance Minister Kostis Hatzidakis said. The tax will rise to 2 euros from 0.5 euros for the winter months.
The government did not specify when the new measures would take effect.
Greece expects its revenues from tourism to hit 22 billion euros this year, another record high, Kefalogianni said.
The Mediterranean country, with its crystal-clear waters and pristine beaches, reported record tourism revenues of 20.6 billion euros last year. Data so far indicated that 2024 will be another good year, Kefalogianni added.
"Greece is in the top 10 of the most popular tourist destinations in the world," she said. "We can be hopeful that revenues could reach as much as 22 billion euros."
A 20-euro levy on cruise ship visitors to the islands of Santorini and Mykonos during the peak summer season, another measure announced earlier this month to battle over-tourism, will take effect next year, Kefalogianni said.
($1 = 0.8986 euros)
(Reporting by Lefteris Papadimas and Angeliki Koutantou; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Keith Weir)
(( angeliki.koutantou@thomsonreuters.com ; +30 2102214608; Reuters Messaging: angeliki.koutantou.reuters.com@reuters.net ))
Keywords: GREECE-ECONOMY/TOURISM-RENTALS (UPDATE 2, TV, PIX)
The latest trading session saw Booking Holdings (BKNG) ending at $3,932.59, denoting a +1.6% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.54%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.72%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.65%.
Heading into today, shares of the online booking service had gained 6.49% over the past month, lagging the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 9.25% and outpacing the S&P 500's gain of 4.86% in that time.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Booking Holdings in its upcoming earnings disclosure. In that report, analysts expect Booking Holdings to post earnings of $77.68 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 7.41%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $7.62 billion, indicating a 3.76% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $176.92 per share and a revenue of $22.95 billion, representing changes of +16.23% and +7.4%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Booking Holdings. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.1% lower. Right now, Booking Holdings possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In the context of valuation, Booking Holdings is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 21.88. This expresses a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 22.59 of its industry.
We can additionally observe that BKNG currently boasts a PEG ratio of 1.18. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Internet - Commerce industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.18 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Internet - Commerce industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 69, this industry ranks in the top 28% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Zacks Investment Research
Updates
** Truist Securities starts coverage on online travel agencies Booking Holdings BKNG.O and Expedia EXPE.O with "hold" rating
** Brokerage sets $4,100 PT on BKNG and $148 on EXPE
** Truist warns of decelerating leisure travel growth; says U.S. consumers seek "value play" vacations, cut back on travel spending
** BKNG up 6.6% YTD, while EXPE down ~11%; Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services .DJUSCY index up 11.81% so far this year
(Reporting by Aishwarya Jain in Bengaluru)
** Truist Securities starts coverage of online travel agency Booking Holdings' BKNG.O shares with "hold" rating
** Brokerage sets $4,100 PT, representing ~8% upside to stock's last close
** Brokerage warns of decelerating leisure travel growth
** 25 of 37 brokerages rate the stock "buy" or higher, 12 "hold"; median PT $4,100 - LSEG
** Shares up 6.6% YTD as of last close
(Reporting by Aishwarya Jain in Bengaluru)
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