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As part of most compensation plans at big companies, insiders receive company stock. This means there is almost always going to be some insider selling. They may sell for many reasons, but the fact is that they buy stock for a single reason… they believe the stock is going to move higher.
Over the years I have learned that insider selling is often just noise and is often absorbed back by the company through buyback plans. This is not true of insider buying. Sometimes there is a planned purchase or series of purchases and sometimes it is a big statement buy. Knowing which is which takes a trained eye.
In this video we look at three stocks that have seen some insider buying over the last several months.
Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that has an A for Value and an A for Growth is highlighted first. This stock was left for dead at the start of the pandemic, but it has sailed on to better waters since then.
Next up is Crox CROX which also is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and also has an A for Value and an A for Growth. This stock soared after we found out that the pandemic would not kill us all and we could wear our Crox at home without anyone judging us. Since then the stock is more or less telling us that people have been replacing their Crox shoes and maybe even accessorizing them.
Brian reviews the earnings history, estimate revisions and takes a look at the chart of both of these stocks.
Finally, we look at Aon AON which is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a stock that Brian would normally never really look at. Insurance just isn’t exciting, but when Brian saw the pop in the stock after a recent miss and post-earning drift higher, he just had to highlight this stock. Brian only takes a look at the Zacks Price, Consensus and EPS surprise chart for Aon (AON) and notes that they regularly miss earnings so the recent miss should not be a big shock.
Insider Trader is a service run by Tracey Ryniec and she does a great job separating the wheat from chaff in the world of insider buying. She can spot an insider statement buy from miles away and knows when it is a clear-cut sign that outperformance lies ahead. One tip from her service is to watch for the insider buying from Chief Legal Officers, as they are not the type, generally speaking of course, who would gamble with their own money.
Take a moment and check out the Zacks Insider Trader service today!
Zacks Investment Research
Ralph Lauren Corporation RL stock has been trending up the charts in the past year, recording growth of 64.1% against the broader Consumer Discretionary sector’s return of 10.1% and the Zacks Textile - Apparel industry‘s 2.8% decline. RL’s shares also surpassed the S&P 500 index’s appreciation of 27.9% in a year.
Currently priced at $181.44, Ralph Lauren stock is trading at 5.5% to its 52-week high of $192.03, reached on March 21, 2024. However, it is trading at a 67.1% premium to its 52-week low mark.
RL’s Strategies Drive Growth
Ralph Lauren’s stock performance is due to its progress on ‘Next Great Chapter: Accelerate Plan’ and digital efforts. As part of the plan, the company is focused on elevating its lifestyle brand, expanding core and other businesses and strengthening its presence in key cities. It is enhancing its global lifestyle brands by offering premium products that align with evolving consumer preferences. Its strategy, which includes product elevation, personalized promotions, disciplined inventory management and a favorable channel and geographic mix, is proving effective.
This approach supports Ralph Lauren’s financial goals. Management forecasted mid-to-high-single-digit compounded annual revenue growth in constant currency during the fiscal 2022-2025 period. Operating profit growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, with the operating margin projected to reach at least 15% by fiscal 2025 in constant currency. Modest gross margin improvements and controlled expenses will support operating margin expansion. Capital expenditures are expected to remain in the band of 4-5% of revenues annually and the company plans to return $2 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases by fiscal 2025.
RL continues to invest in key priorities like marketing, digital growth and ecosystem expansion in major cities. Its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, including stores and digital commerce, are performing well, with significant progress in mobile, omnichannel and fulfillment investments. In the latest quarter, RL added 1.3 million new consumers through its DTC business, with digital sales increasing 14% in Europe and 21% in Asia.
RL's Price Performance
RL’s Earnings Estimate Revisions
Given the positive sentiments regarding the stock, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 and 2026 has been northbound. In the past 60 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) for the current fiscal year has been revised 1.5% to $11.24 for fiscal 2025 and 0.2% to $12.56 for fiscal 2026. This implies year-over-year earnings growth of 9% and 11.8%, respectively, for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
Hurdles in RL’s Growth Path
Ralph Lauren, like other lifestyle brands, faces macroeconomic challenges such as inflation, supply-chain issues and shifting consumer behavior. Management expressed caution about the global economic and consumer outlook. Also, unfavorable foreign currency impacts are expected to affect gross margins by 40 basis points and operating margins by 50 basis points in the upcoming quarter.
Softness in its wholesale channel in North America is another setback for the company. Higher promotions and an unfavorable wholesale timing shift have been affecting the segment. The North America wholesale business reported a 13% decline in revenues in first-quarter fiscal 2025, due to receipt timing shifts and lower product sales to the off-price wholesale division. This resulted in the North America segment reporting a 4% year-over-year decline in revenues, with 4% fall in digital revenues.
Management anticipates wholesale declines to moderate through the remainder of fiscal 2025, with the potential of a restock in well-performing core products.
RL Stock’s Valuation
Ralph Lauren stock is trading at a premium valuation relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, RL stock is currently trading at 15.31 on a forward 12-month basis, higher than 12.38 of the industry. Also, it is trading higher than its median of 14.48.
How to Play the RL Stock?
Ralph Lauren’s robust strategies, including the Next Chapter Plan and digital endeavors, position it well for long-term growth. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and soft North America performance are likely to be headwinds in the near term.
The company's steady uptrend with a pricey valuation signals a cautious approach for investors willing to enter at these levels. For existing investors, retaining the stock seems to be a prudent choice, considering the company’s long-term growth potential. The company’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) supports our thesis.
Stocks to Consider
We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks, namely, G-III Apparel Group GIII, Crocs CROX and Royal Caribbean RCL.
G-III Apparel is a manufacturer, designer and distributor of apparel and accessories under licensed brands, owned brands and private label brands. It sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 118.2%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GIII Apparel’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 3.3% from the year-ago figure.
Crocs develops and manufactures lifestyle footwear and accessories. It currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.9%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Crocs’ current financial-year sales and EPS implies an improvement of 4% and 6.8%, respectively, from the prior-year actuals.
Royal Caribbean carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. RCL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.5%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 18.1% and 71.1%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Zacks Investment Research
Following a thorough vendor evaluation, Flexsteel Industries, Inc. FLXS teams up with 3D Cloud for its 3D digital asset management and product configuration needs. This collaboration will provide more than 2,500 Flexsteel retailers with advanced 3D product visualization tools.
The integration of 3D Cloud is expected to enhance product visualization, streamline configuration processes and improve overall efficiency for Flexsteel’s retail partners. It will provide Flexsteel’s retailers with tools to create interactive brand experiences, including self-service product renders, WebAR and product configurators. This will enable FLXS to deliver more dynamic and engaging customer interactions.
Flexsteel plans to leverage its investment in 3D content across various applications. This strategy aims to ensure consistent branding, enhance marketing efforts and improve operational efficiency.
FLXS’ YTD Price Performance
Shares of the company have skyrocketed 120.7% year to date compared with the industry‘s 33.1% growth. FLXS effectively managed its operations. It capitalized on sustained productivity and cost-saving measures, maintained pricing discipline and actively managed its product portfolio to its advantage. The company is expected to benefit from its growth strategy and new product introductions.
Despite challenges in the industry, primarily stemming from changes in consumer spending preferences away from home furnishings, the company expects net sales growth of 5-10% year over year in first-quarter fiscal 2025. The same is expected to rise 2-6% in the fiscal 2025.
The company is committed to growth and gaining market share despite industry challenges. For fiscal 2025, it plans to advance through core markets and expand into new ones with robust strategies and investments.
FLXS focuses on investing in consumer insights, innovation and marketing to drive long-term growth. Flexsteel’s increased investment in consumer insights is expected to identify and address emerging needs. It also invests in innovation that differentiates the company and is protected by intellectual property, trademarks or exclusivity.
Additionally, the company enhances marketing and brand awareness by strengthening direct consumer engagement while continuing successful trade partner marketing. Alongside these efforts, Flexsteel remains committed to achieving profit growth through operational excellence and disciplined portfolio management in fiscal 2025 and
beyond.
Zacks Rank & Key Picks
Flexsteel currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Here are some better-ranked stocks from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. DDI currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
DDI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average. The stock has increased 43.4% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DDI’s 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates an increase of 12.6% and 15.8%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. NCLH has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.7%, on average. The stock has moved up 15.9% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NCLH’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 9.8% and 125.7%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL currently sports a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). RCL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.5%, on average. The stock has gained 76.9% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates growth of 18.1% and 71.1%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Zacks Investment Research
The much-awaited Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting begins today, with expectations high among market participants that the central bank will finally start its rate-cut cycle. This will be the first time that the Fed will cut interest rates since March 2020. Investors are expecting at least a 25-basis point rate cut this month.
Given this situation, investing in consumer discretionary stocks such as Crocs, Inc. CROX, Traeger, Inc. COOK, DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. DDI, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL and Mohawk Industries, Inc. MHK would be ideal.
Each of these stocks has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Rate Cut Almost Assured
A softer-than-expected jobs data and a marginal rise in monthly inflation in August crashed hopes of a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. However, even a small rate cut will be cheered by investors.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 in its fight to bring down 40-year-high inflation. Hopes of a rate cut earlier this year were dampened after inflation unexpectedly rose in the first quarter.
The Fed is finally convinced that inflation has started cooling and is on track to reach its 2% target. This has raised hopes of the first rate cut in more than four years. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25-basis point cut this week, while a 50% chance of a 50-basis point cut.
Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Get a Boost
Consumer discretionary stocks are considered growth stocks, inversely related to the market interest rate. Lower interest rates tend to boost such stocks by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like consumer discretionary stocks.
Also, the U.S. economy continues to remain on solid ground. The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter, with the GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3% after increasing just 1.4% in the first quarter.
Also, consumer sentiment is high. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s preliminary reading for September rose to 69 from 67.9 in August, its highest level since May 2024.
4 Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Gain
Crocs, Inc.
Crocs, Inc. is one of the leading footwear brands with a focus on comfort and style. CROX offers a wide variety of footwear products, including sandals, wedges, flips and slides, that cater to people of all ages.
Crocs’ expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 6.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 1.2% over the past 60 days. CROX presently has a Zacks Rank #2.
Traeger, Inc.
Traeger, Inc. provides wood pellet grills. COOK’s pellet grills utilize wood-fired convection power, owners can grill, smoke, bake, roast, braise and barbecue meals on one cooking system.
Traeger’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 100% over the past 60 days. COOK currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.
DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. is a developer and publisher of digital social casino games. DDI is based in Seattle.
DoubleDown Interactive’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 15.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 13.5% over the past 60 days. DDI currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. owns and operates three global brands — Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Azamara Club Cruises. Additionally, RCL has a 50% investment in a joint venture with TUI AG, which operates the brand TUI Cruises. Royal Caribbean Cruises’ cruise brands primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.
Royal Caribbean Cruises’ expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 71.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 4.2% over the past 60 days. RCL currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
Mohawk Industries, Inc.
Mohawk Industries, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of flooring products that enhance residential and commercial space. MHK manufactures carpets, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone and vinyl flooring.
Mohawk Industries’ expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 8.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 4.8% over the past 60 days. MHK currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
Zacks Investment Research
MGM Resorts International's MGM sports betting and iGaming brand, BetMGM, has entered a multi-year partnership with Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI) to act as the preferred online sportsbook and casino partner for USA TODAY Sports.
Per the agreement, BetMGM will provide sports betting odds and detailed betting information across the extensive USA TODAY Network, which spans more than 200 local U.S. markets in 43 states. This partnership will also leverage over 300 digital news and media brands within the network's portfolio to enhance its reach and coverage.
BetMGM's sports betting odds, including moneylines, spreads and over/unders, will be integrated into content across the USA TODAY Network. The Bet Now feature will also be available. BetMGM Sportsbook and BetMGM Casino will be listed as partners in website footers. The company aims to leverage this partnership to enhance fan engagement with sports betting throughout the football season and beyond.
Sports Betting to Boost MGM's Growth
Sports betting and iGaming continue to be a major growth driver for MGM. The company continues to focus on sports betting expansion. During second-quarter 2024, the company reported notable progress in its digital strategy, particularly with BetMGM and the acquisition of LeoVegas. The company advanced its ownership of technology by acquiring Push Gaming for proprietary content and Tipico’s U.S. sports betting platform.
The recent introduction of a Live Dealer product in partnership with Playtech further enhances its digital offerings. On the international front, MGM reported substantial developments, including an in-house sports product and live dealer features for online gaming.
BetMGM remained profitable in the second quarter, largely driven by the iGaming business, which generates around $400 million annually. The company achieved significant strides in enhancing its sports product through key partnerships. Management remains confident in the brand’s long-term growth, emphasizing the value of their strategic partnership and ongoing commitment to business expansion.
MGM’s Price Performance
Shares of this owner and operator of casino resorts through wholly-owned subsidiaries have lost 17.4% in the past six months against the Zacks Gaming industry’s 10.8% growth. Although the company’s shares have underperformed its industry, MGM’s ongoing focus on sports betting and iGaming, along with international expansion, asset-light strategy and non-gaming activities is likely to foster growth in the upcoming period.
Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
MGM Resorts currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Here are some other top-ranked stocks from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. DDI currently sports a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
DDI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average. The stock has increased 43.4% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DDI’s 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates an increase of 12.6% and 15.8%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH currently sports a Zacks Rank of #1. NCLH has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.7%, on average. The stock has moved up 15.9% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NCLH’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 9.8% and 125.7%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL currently sports a Zacks Rank #2. RCL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.5%, on average. The stock has gained 76.9% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates growth of 18.1% and 71.1%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.
Zacks Investment Research
Crocs, Inc. CROX has been making smart moves by diversifying its product range to attract more consumers. It continues to innovate with new product lines such as sandals and boots, which is driving product diversification and increasing customer appeal across different seasons.
The brand's commitment to sustainability is evident through its use of bio-circular Croslite, which now accounts for over 80% of its materials, including in its iconic Classic Clog. This innovation maintains Crocs' signature style, comfort and durability while fostering its efforts to reduce carbon footprint.
In 2021, Crocs set an ambitious goal to achieve 50% bio-circular content in its Croslite material by 2030. By August 2024, the brand was on track, having already reached 25% bio-circular content within just three years.
Factors Driving CROX Brands, Partnerships and Margins
Crocs is advancing its long-term strategy with key initiatives focused on sustainable growth. The company’s approach centers on three main pillars. These include elevating iconic products across brands to boost awareness and relevance, strategically investing in Tier 1 markets to increase market share through enhanced talent, marketing, digital and retail expansion, and diversifying its product range to appeal to a broader consumer base.
Crocs has been capitalizing on strong consumer demand across its Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, supported by effective pricing strategies. For HEYDUDE, the company is focused on strengthening its North American presence and building the Wendy and Wally franchises. New partnerships, like a Corona-themed collection featuring Wally, Wendy and Hudson styles, and the Denim and Dudes collaboration with Lee, have expanded its international reach. Crocs is also concentrating on key product offerings, including Stretch Subs, Stretch Canvas and Funk Mono.
Global brand awareness and desirability are on the rise for Crocs, with partnerships ranging from iconic brands like Toy Story and Hello Kitty to luxury collaborations with Simone Rocha. The launch of Echo Storm, available through direct-to-consumer channels and retailers like Foot Locker and JD Sports, further enhances the brand’s market position.
Crocs has benefited from declining freight costs, which have supported gross margin growth. The Crocs brand's adjusted gross margin increased by 330 basis points year over year, driven by lower inbound freight, favorable product costs, selective international price increases and reduced discounting. The HEYDUDE brand's adjusted gross margin also expanded by 200 basis points, owing to reduced freight costs and a favorable channel mix, though partially offset by infrastructure investments.
CROX’s Promising Vision
The company aims to exceed $5 billion in revenues by 2026 at a five-year compound annual growth rate of more than 17%. This target is expected to be achieved through robust digital sales, increased market share for sandals, growth in Asia and innovations in product and marketing. Management anticipates a four-fold increase in revenues from sandals by 2026.
The upcoming quarters look promising for Crocs, with third-quarter fiscal 2024 revenues expected to grow 3-5% year over year and Crocs brand revenues projected to rise 7-9%. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company expects growth for HEYDUDE in the fourth quarter, supported by favorable comparisons, new retail stores, wholesale timing and international expansion. The company remains on track to achieve 3-5% overall revenue growth for 2024 at constant currency.
What’s More for CROX Stock?
Given Crocs' solid revenue growth projections, strategic initiatives, margin improvements, successful partnerships and focus on sustainability, the stock presents a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the company’s growth trajectory.
Buoyed by these initiatives, the company is well poised for long-term growth objectives. Shares of CROX have gained 4.6% against the industry’s decline of 19% in the past six months.
Three Other Stocks Showing Potential
Some other top-ranked stocks are Wolverine World Wide WWW, GIII Apparel Group GIII and Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO.
Wolverine World Wide designs, manufactures and distributes of a wide variety of casual and active apparel and footwear. The company sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WWW’s current financial-year sales indicates a decline of almost 23% from the year-ago reported figures. The consensus mark for EPS reflects significant growth to 85 cents from 5 cents reported in the prior year. WWW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.5%, on average.
G-III Apparel is a manufacturer, designer and distributor of apparel and accessories under licensed brands, owned brands and private label brands. It carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
GIII Apparel has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 118.2%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GIII Apparel’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 3.3% from the year-ago figure.
Steven Madden designs, sources, markets and sells fashion-forward name-brand and private-label footwear. It currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden’s 2024 earnings and sales indicates growth of 6.9% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. SHOO has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.5%.
Zacks Investment Research
Consumer stocks were mixed pre-bell Tuesday, with The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund down 0.3% and The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund up 0.4%.
Tupperware Brands may file for bankruptcy as soon as this week, Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans. Tupperware Brands shares were down more than 7% premarket.
Amazon.com stock was 1% higher after the company announced that its Prime Big Deal Days will take place on Oct. 8 and Oct. 9.
Royal Caribbean Cruises shares were up 0.5% after the company said overnight it priced an upsized private offering of $1.50 billion worth of 5.625% senior unsecured notes due 2031.
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