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Breaking a string of past four months of tepidness, builder sentiment edged two points higher this month sequentially. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among U.S. homebuilders for newly-built single-family homes increased to 41 in September from 39 in August.
Image Source: National Association of Home Builders Discusses Economics and Housing Policy
Post-release on Tuesday, shares of homebuilders like Dream Finders Homes, Inc. DFH, Century Communities, Inc. CCS, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC, Meritage Homes Corporation MTH and Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. TPH gained 3%, 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
The most contributing factor that lifted confidence among U.S. homebuilders was decreasing mortgage rates, which have declined to their lowest level since February 2023. Per Freddie Mac’s recent 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey (for the week ended Sept. 12), the metric stood at 6.2% compared with 7.18% a year ago and 7.76% recorded for the week ended Oct. 26, 2023 (highest reading in the past year).
Image Source: Freddie Mac
For this month, all three HMI components grew sequentially. Current sales conditions increased one point to 45. Buyer traffic was up two points to 27, and sales prediction for the next six months rose four points to 53. The HMI gauge of future sales expectations signals improvement in housing demand going forward. The three-month moving averages for the regional HMI reading were down in the Northeast and South regions, while the Midwest and West inched up from the previous month.
Although the reading grew sequentially, a score below 50 indicates poor industry conditions in most builders’ view.
What’s Hurting the Homebuilding Industry?
Rising building costs continue to impede the construction sector as a whole, which remains a persistent challenge for housing affordability. In July, U.S. construction spending fell more than expected due to higher mortgage rates and increased supply weighed on single-family homebuilding.
Also, more competition among builders from rising housing inventory could be a potential headwind in the future. The HMI survey revealed that some builders have backed off cutting prices in September. In fact, this was the first time when average price reduction was below 6% since July 2022. Moreover, the use of sales incentives also fell to 61% in September, down from 64% in August. These data, along with high costs, may boost the affordability issue in the next couple of months.
Should You Still Invest in Housing Stocks?
Improved supply and declining mortgage rates have fueled optimism around the housing market that could continue to rebound in the coming months as well. In addition, inflation is also moderating, which is likely to create a positive ground for interest rate cuts in today’s Federal Reserve meeting. In August, the inflation rate reached a new three-year low.
On Wednesday, Fed’s chair Jerome Powell is likely to trim interest rates as inflation is approaching toward the central bank’s 2% target. This would be the first one since March 2020, when the Fed slashed rates to boost economic growth derailed due to the pandemic.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, around 59% of market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the policy meeting. Approximately 41% of traders are pricing in a quarter-point interest rate cut.
August job data, particularly for construction, has also relieved the investors. Wages in August increased 3.8% year over year. Also, refinancing activity increased 1% for the week that ended on Sept. 6 from the previous week.
The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry has gained 28.5% so far this year, broadly outperforming the Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index’s growth of 19.6% and 18.1%, respectively.
5 Above-Mentioned Housing Stocks to Look For
Here, we have discussed the above-mentioned stocks, which may not have top ranks but are worth considering on the back of impressive earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, these stocks are trading at a discount, which means that investors may be paying a lesser price for these stocks relative to their expected earnings growth.
Dream Finders Homes: This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company has been benefiting from a strong business model and a stabilizing economy.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current year to $3.22 from $3.21. The estimate indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 15.4%. Revenue estimates also indicate a 13.3% increase year over year.
DFH’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.11X is below the industry average of 11.85X.
Century Communities: This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company is riding on its focus on building homes on a spec basis and affordability, along with the reduced cycle times and cost-reduction initiatives. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen upward revisions. In the past 30 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current year and next year to $10.72 (from $10.64) and $12.40 (from $12.24), respectively. These estimates indicate year-over-year growth rates of 32.5% and 15.7%, respectively. Revenue estimates also indicate an 18.1% and 8.2% increase year over year, respectively.
CCS’ forward 12-month PE ratio of 8.81X is below the industry average.
Taylor Morrison: This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has been benefiting from critical advantages by achieving greater scale, simplifying its operations and embracing innovation to drive both growth opportunities and enhance bottom-line growth. Focus on the operational efficiencies and solid liquidity level are tailwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current year and next year to $8.04 (from $7.88) and $8.79 (from $8.49), respectively. These estimates indicate year-over-year growth rates of 6.2% and 9.3%, respectively. Revenue estimates also indicate a 7.1% and 8.3% increase year over year, respectively.
TMHC’s forward 12-month PE ratio of 8.13X is below the industry average.
Meritage Homes: This Zacks Rank #2 company has been reaping benefits from the resilient housing demand and the company’s progress in delivering quick-turning and affordable move-in-ready homes.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current year and next year to $21.09 (from $20.33) and $21.98 (from $21.53), respectively. These estimates indicate year-over-year growth rates of 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Revenue estimates also indicate a 2.8% and 6.9% increase year over year, respectively.
MTH’s forward 12-month PE ratio of 9.41X is below the industry average.
Tri Pointe: This Zacks Rank #3 company has been benefiting from solid homebuilding industry fundamentals, land acquisition strategy and cost-control measures. Also, strong demographics and limited availability of homes are likely to support the company in the future.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen upward revisions. In the past 30 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current year to $4.68 from $4.65. The estimate indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 35.7%. Revenue estimates also indicate an 18.3% increase year over year.
TPH’s forward 12-month PE ratio of 9.12X is below the industry average.
Zacks Investment Research
Investors generally consider a 52-week high a good criterion for determining an entry or exit point for a given stock. However, stocks touching new 52-week highs are often predisposed to profit-taking, resulting in pullbacks and trend reversals.
Moreover, given the high price, investors often wonder if the stock is overpriced. While the speculation is not absolutely baseless, all stocks hitting a 52-week high are not necessarily overpriced.
In fact, investors might lose out on top gainers in an attempt to avoid the steep prices.
Stocks such as Century Communities CCS, Powell Industries POWL, Sylvamo SLVM, IAMGOLD IAG and Universal Health Services UHS are expected to maintain their momentum and keep scaling new highs. More information on a stock is necessary to understand whether or not there is scope for further upside.
Here, we discuss a strategy to find the right stocks. The technique borrows from the basics of momentum investing and bets on “buy high, sell higher.”
52-Week High: A Good Indicator
Many times, stocks that hit a 52-week high fail to scale higher despite having potential. This is because investors fear that the stocks are overvalued and expect the price to crash.
Overvaluation is natural for most of these stocks as investors’ focus (or willingness to pay the premium) has helped them reach the level. But that does not always indicate an impending decline. Factors such as robust sales, surging profit levels, earnings growth prospects and strategic acquisitions that encouraged investors to bet on these stocks could keep them motivated if there is no tangible negative. In other words, the momentum might continue.
Also, when a string of positive developments dominates the market, investors find their under-reaction unwarranted, even if there are no company-specific driving forces.
Setting the Right Filters
We ran a screen to zero in on 52-week high stocks (trading near the high level) that hold tremendous upside potential. The screen includes parameters to shortlist stocks with strong earnings growth expectations, sturdy value metrics and price momentum.
Moreover, the screen filters stocks that are relatively undervalued compared to their peers in terms of earnings as well as sales, ensuring the continuation of their rally for some time.
Current Price/52 Week High >= .80
This is the ratio between the current price and the highest price at which the stock has traded in the past 52 weeks. A value greater than 0.8 implies the stock is trading within 20% of its 52-week high range.
% Change Price – 4 Weeks > 0
It ensures that the stock price has moved north over the past four weeks.
% Change Price – 12 Weeks > 0
This metric guarantees a continued upward price momentum for the stock over the past three months as well.
Price/Sales <= XIndMed
The lower, the better.
P/E using F(1) Estimate <= XIndMed
This metric measures the amount an investor puts into a company to obtain one dollar of earnings. It narrows down the list of stocks to those that are undervalued compared to the industry.
One-Year EPS Growth F(1)/F(0) >= XIndMed
This helps choose stocks that have higher growth rates than the industry. This is a meaningful indicator, as decent earnings growth adds to investor optimism.
Zacks Rank =1
No screening is complete without the Zacks Rank, which has proved its worth since its inception. It is a fundamental truth that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) have always managed to brave adversities and beat the market average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Current Price >= 5
This parameter will help screen stocks that are trading at $5 or higher.
Volume – 20 days (shares) >= 100000
The inclusion of this metric ensures that there is a substantial volume of shares, so trading is easier.
Here are our five picks out of the 13 stocks that made it through the screen:
Century Communities is a home building and construction company. Its activities comprise land acquisition, development and entitlements, and the acquisition, development, construction, marketing, and sale of various single-family detached and attached residential home projects. The company’s initiative of offering affordable homes along with several incentive offerings, including lot premiums, interest rate buydowns and discounts on base home prices, is expected to be a tailwind. Also, its focus on building homes on a spec basis bodes well. This initiative of the company helps in direct cost control, sparks the availability of quick move-ins and assures buyers of financing certainty.
Furthermore, despite the improving inventory of existing home sales, the company is likely to benefit from increasing new home contracts, thanks to its improved cycle times and increased level of home starts. The company’s focus on affordability, along with the reduced cycle times and cost-reduction initiatives, positions it well for the rest of 2024.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has moved north by 0.8% to $10.72 per share in the past 30 days. CCS surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 35.57%.
Powell Industries is a prominent electrical equipment manufacturer, riding on its strong foothold and improving conditions in two key markets — oil and gas and petrochemical. The company’s efforts to strengthen its project portfolio beyond the core oil and gas, and petrochemical end markets have also enhanced its market share across the utility, commercial and other industrial markets. POWL is also benefiting from increased demand for electrical power from data centers.
Powell is strengthening its participation across the electrical power value chain and benefiting from solid momentum in data center and utility markets. The company witnessed strong bookings in electric utility and commercial markets in the first nine months of fiscal 2024 in the United States. Powell’s capacity expansion initiatives, particularly at the product factory in Houston, bode well. The expansionary efforts have been enabling the company to better serve its customers with enhanced offerings across data centers, hydrogen, carbon capture and other transitional energy markets.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 earnings has remained steady at $12.01 per share over the past 30 days. POWL surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 69.88%.
Sylvamo produces and markets uncoated freesheet for cut size, offset paper and pulp. Stronger order books and higher pulp and paper prices are likely to aid its top-line growth in the near term. The company has initiated a cost-reduction program called Project Horizon, which is focused on streamlining its organization and cost structures in an effort to make a leaner, stronger company.
SLVM is on track to realize savings of at least $110 million by the end of 2024. Around $80 million of the target will come from operational improvements in its mills and supply chains and the balance from the reduction in selling and administrative expenses. The company continues to lower its debt levels and maintains a strong financial position that enables it to invest in its business. It has a pipeline of more than $200 million of high-return capital projects, which will boost its earnings and cash flow profile.
Earnings estimates for Sylvamo’s fiscal 2024 have remained steady at $7.40 per share over the past 30 days. SLVM surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 23.97%.
IAMGOLD is an international gold exploration and mining company based in Canada. IAG is poised for growth, supported by an upward trend in gold prices, the ongoing ramp-up at Côté Gold, and the established portfolio of early-stage and advanced exploration projects within high-potential mining districts. IAG continues to invest in maximizing production and increasing the life of its existing mines, advancing development and exploration projects.
IAMGOLD expects production from the Côté Gold mine in 2024 to be near the lower end of 130,000-175,000 ounces (on a 60.3% basis). IAG has the financing in place and is set to buy a 9.7% interest in Côté Gold on Nov. 30, 2024. This will take its stake in the project to 70%. We expect the contribution from the mine to IAG’s production in 2024 to be higher once this deal is completed. Significant operational projects planned for the next years include the Westwood ramp-up to safely access other mining areas that were affected by the seismic activity in 2020.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has moved north by 5.1% to 41 cents per share in the past 30 days. IAG surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 200%.
Universal Health Services owns and operates (through its subsidiaries) acute care hospitals, behavioral health centers, surgical hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers and radiation oncology centers. Universal Health's Acute Care and Behavioral Health segments have been pivotal in driving top-line growth, fueled by expansions in licensed bed capacity. The company anticipates positive impacts on its Acute Care unit from Medicaid supplemental programs. Strategic buyouts have played a significant role in augmenting its growth trajectory by broadening its portfolio of facilities. It beat second-quarter earnings estimates on Acute Care strength. The company maintains a robust liquidity position, enabling it to pursue growth initiatives and distribute capital through buybacks and dividends. It has resorted to a constant dividend payout of 20 cents per share since 2019.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UHS’ 2024 earnings has remained steady at $15.91 per share in the past 30 days. The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.58%.
Get the rest of the stocks on the list and start putting this and other ideas to the test. It can all be done with the Research Wizard stock picking and back-testing software.
The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks' portfolios and strategies are available at: https://www.zacks.com/performance/.
Zacks Investment Research
The Construction group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. M/I Homes (MHO) is a stock that can certainly grab the attention of many investors, but do its recent returns compare favorably to the sector as a whole? Let's take a closer look at the stock's year-to-date performance to find out.
M/I Homes is a member of our Construction group, which includes 91 different companies and currently sits at #7 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different groups, measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the sector to gauge the strength of each group.
The Zacks Rank emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find stocks with improving earnings outlooks. This system has a long record of success, and these stocks tend to be on track to beat the market over the next one to three months. M/I Homes is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MHO's full-year earnings has moved 8.7% higher. This signals that analyst sentiment is improving and the stock's earnings outlook is more positive.
Based on the most recent data, MHO has returned 21.3% so far this year. Meanwhile, the Construction sector has returned an average of 20.2% on a year-to-date basis. This means that M/I Homes is performing better than its sector in terms of year-to-date returns.
Another Construction stock, which has outperformed the sector so far this year, is Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC). The stock has returned 29% year-to-date.
The consensus estimate for Taylor Morrison Home's current year EPS has increased 7% over the past three months. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
To break things down more, M/I Homes belongs to the Building Products - Home Builders industry, a group that includes 17 individual companies and currently sits at #42 in the Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks in this group have gained about 28.9% so far this year, so MHO is slightly underperforming its industry this group in terms of year-to-date returns. Taylor Morrison Home is also part of the same industry.
Going forward, investors interested in Construction stocks should continue to pay close attention to M/I Homes and Taylor Morrison Home as they could maintain their solid performance.
Zacks Investment Research
In the latest trading session, Dream Finders Homes Inc. (DFH) closed at $34.87, marking a +1.6% move from the previous day. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.13%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.55%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.52%.
Shares of the homebuilder witnessed a gain of 19.25% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Construction sector with its gain of 5.71% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.67%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Dream Finders Homes Inc. in its forthcoming earnings report. On that day, Dream Finders Homes Inc. is projected to report earnings of $0.83 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 10.67%. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $1.13 billion, showing a 25.74% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
DFH's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $3.22 per share and revenue of $4.25 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +15.41% and +13.27%, respectively.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Dream Finders Homes Inc. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Currently, Dream Finders Homes Inc. is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Dream Finders Homes Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.68 right now. This expresses a premium compared to the average Forward P/E of 10.26 of its industry.
It's also important to note that DFH currently trades at a PEG ratio of 0.76. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. As the market closed yesterday, the Building Products - Home Builders industry was having an average PEG ratio of 1.01.
The Building Products - Home Builders industry is part of the Construction sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 25, which puts it in the top 10% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Zacks Investment Research
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