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Homebuilder stocks are on the rise as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates later this week, mortgage rates are on the decline and Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, proposes a homeownership plan that involves building three million new homes.
The Fed is expected to lower its key interest rate by either 25 or 50 basis points when it meets on Wednesday after holding back on doing so at its last meeting in July.
Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest in more than 18 months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.29 percent from 6.43 percent, marking several consecutive weeks of declining rates.
If elected president in November, Harris plans to launch a $25,000 credit for first-time homebuyers on buying a new home and an initiative to build three million new homes in four years.
Truist Securities has raised its rating on Builders First Source, Inc. from Hold to Buy and its price target from $165 to $220.
Read Also: Toll Brothers To Rally Around 19%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Thursday
Analyst Keith Hughes noted reduced mortgage rates and lower lumber prices in the short term and, in the long term, an upswing in multifamily housing construction and Builders’ ability to offer value-added products and digital offerings due to its large size.
Also, many homeowners who locked in rates as low as 3% and 4% over the past two years are holding onto their homes instead of selling, increasing demand for new homes.
“Given the continued limited inventory, we believe this will continue for several more years with new homes taking an even greater share of the market,” he wrote in a note on Monday. “This is a notable catalyst for home builders and their suppliers such as BLDR.”
Price Action: Homebuilders have seen gains and losses into Monday’s early trading but have risen significantly over the past week.
Read Now:
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The S&P 500 Index today is down by -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down by -0.92%.
Stocks today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new record high. Apple is down more than -3% today to weigh on the overall market on signs of weak demand for the new iPhone. Also, the weakness in chip makers today is a drag on the broader market. However, Intel is up more than +4% to lift the Dow Jones Industrials after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Today’s US economic news was hawkish for Fed policy after the Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose +16.2 to a 2-1/3 year high of 11.5, stronger than expectations of -4.0.
Corporate news today is mixed for stocks. On the negative side, Apple is down more than -2% after TF International said weekend pre-order sales show demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weaker than expected. On the positive side, Oracle is up more than +4% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy.
This week, the market will focus on Tuesday’s US Aug retail sales report to see if consumer spending is holding up. The consensus is that Aug retail sales will fall by -0.2% m/m but that Aug retail sales ex-autos will increase by +0.2% m/m. The markets will also look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum or whether they will decide for a larger -50 bp rate cut instead. Post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will also be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 63% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Signs of weakness in China’s economy are negative for global growth prospects. China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y. Also, China Aug retail sales rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. In addition, China Aug new home prices fell -0.73% m/m, the largest decline in 9-3/4 years.
Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.37%. China's Shanghai Composite was closed for the Mid-autumn Festival holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 was closed for the Respect-for-the-Aged Day holiday.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are up +2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.5 bp at 3.636%. Dec T-notes today are slightly higher on heightened speculation the Fed will cut interest rates by -50 bp at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting. Swap markets showed the chances of a -50 bp rate cut rose to 63% today from 52% last Friday. T-notes fell back from their best levels today after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose more than expected to a 2-1/3 year high. Also, rising inflation expectations are negative for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-1/2 week high today of 2.100%.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.7 bp at 2.121%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.0 bp at 3.758%.
ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, "There's still more risk inflation will be higher over the medium term than we expect," and the ECB "will almost surely need to wait until December for a clearer picture before making its next move" on interest rates.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 31% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Apple is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after TF International said demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weak, with first-weekend pre-order sales of about 37 million units, down about -12.7% y/y from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales. Apple suppliers are falling as well, with Qorvo down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Skyworks Solutions is down more than -6%.
Chip makers are under pressure today and are weighing on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Micron Technology is down more than -4%, and Broadcom is down more than -3%. In addition, KLA Corp , Lam Research , and ASML Holding NV are down more than -2%. Finally, Nvidia , Marvell Technology , GlobalFoundries , Applied Materials , Microchip Technology , and Texas Instruments are down more than -1%.
Intel is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Oracle is up more than +4% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $210.
Charles Schwab is up more than +3% after it reported new brokerage account in August rose +4% y/y to 324,000 and that it expects Q3 revenue will climb as much as 3% from Q2.
Elf Beauty is down more than -3% after Piper Sandler cut its price target on the stock to $162 from $260.
MKS Instruments is down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Nova Ltd is down more than -5% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Yelp Inc is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underperform with a price target of $30.
Exact Sciences is up more than +5% after releasing data from a study of its blood-based colon cancer screening that showed sensitivities of 88% for colorectal cancer and 31% for advanced precancerous lesions at 90% specificity.
Nuvalent is up more than +23% after presenting updated data from two early-stage trials of its lead cancer programs that impressed analysts.
Builders FirstSource is up more than +3% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $220.
Zillow is up more than +4% after Wedbush upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $80.
Earnings Reports (9/16/2024)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
The S&P 500 Index today is down by -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down by -0.84%.
Stocks today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new record high. Apple is down more than -3% today to weigh on the overall market on signs of weak demand for the new iPhone. Also, the weakness in chip makers today is a drag on the broader market. However, Intel is up more than +3% to lift the Dow Jones Industrials after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Today’s US economic news was hawkish for Fed policy after the Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose +16.2 to a 2-1/3 year high of 11.5, stronger than expectations of -4.0.
Corporate news today is mixed for stocks. On the negative side, Apple is down more than -3% after TF International said weekend pre-order sales show demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weaker than expected. On the positive side, Oracle is up more than +4% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy.
The market’s focus this week will be on Tuesday’s US Aug retail sales report to see if consumer spending is holding up. The consensus is that Aug retail sales will fall by -0.2% m/m, but that Aug retail sales ex-autos will increase by +0.2% m/m. The markets will also look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum, or whether they will decide for a larger -50 bp rate cut instead. Post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will also be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 69% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Signs of weakness in China’s economy are negative for global growth prospects. China Aug industrial production rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y. Also, China Aug retail sales rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.5% y/y. In addition, China Aug new home prices fell -0.73% m/m, the largest decline in 9-3/4 years.
Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.27%. China's Shanghai Composite was closed for the Mid-autumn Festival holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 was closed for the Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today is up +1 tick. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.2 bp at 3.649%. Dec T-notes today are slightly higher on heightened speculation the Fed will cut interest rates by -50 bp at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting. Swap markets showed the chances of a -50 bp rate cut rose to 69% today from 52% last Friday. T-notes fell back from their best levels today after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose more than expected to a 2-1/3 year high. Also, rising inflation expectations are negative for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-1/2 week high today of 2.098%.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.9 bp at 2.139%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.3 bp at 3.771%.
ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, "There's still more risk inflation will be higher over the medium term than we expect," and the ECB "will almost surely need to wait until December for a clearer picture before making its next move" on interest rates.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 31% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Apple is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after TF International said demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series is weak, with first-weekend pre-order sales of about 37 million units, down about -12.7% y/y from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales.
Chip makers are under pressure today and are weighing on the broader market. Micron Technology is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and ARM Holdings Plc is down more than -4%. Also, Nvidia , Broadcom , and KLA Corp are down more than -3%. In addition, Lam Research and Applied Materials are down more than -2%.
Elf Beauty is down more than -3% after Piper Sandler cut its price target on the stock to $162 from $260.
MKS Instruments is down more than -2% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Nova Ltd is down more than -5% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Yelp Inc is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of underperform with a price target of $30.
Oracle is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Melius Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $210.
Intel is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon.
Exact Sciences is up more than +4% after releasing data from a study of its blood-based colon cancer screening that showed sensitivities of 88% for colorectal cancer and 31% for advanced precancerous lesions at 90% specificity.
Nuvalent is up more than +21% after presenting updated data from two early-stage trials of its lead cancer programs that impressed analysts.
Builders FirstSource is up more than +2% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $220.
Zillow is up more than +2% after Wedbush upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $80.
Earnings Reports (9/16/2024)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Investors in Green Brick Partners, Inc. GRBK need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Oct 18, 2024 $20 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Green Brick Partners shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Green Brick Partners is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the Real Estate- Development industry that ranks in the Bottom 41% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, two analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while none have revised their estimates downward. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from $1.88 per share to $2.08 in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Green Brick Partners right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Often times, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
Looking to Trade Options?
Check out the simple yet high-powered approach that Zacks Executive VP Kevin Matras has used to close recent double and triple-digit winners. In addition to impressive profit potential, these trades can actually reduce your risk.
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