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The Procter & Gamble Company PG, also known as P&G, has displayed a robust graph, reflecting the continued rise in its share price in the past few months. The PG stock’s momentum is attributed to the success of its strategy focusing on sustainability and adaptability, responding to the evolving demands of consumers, customers and society. It has been focused on productivity and cost-saving plans to boost margins.
In the year-to-date period, the company’s shares have rallied 21%, surpassing the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500 index’s rise of 10.4% and 17.9%, respectively.
Shares of this Cincinnati, OH-based consumer goods company created new 52-high marks more than three times in less than three months.
The current share price of $177.24 reflects a 0.4% discount to its recent 52-week high mark of $177.94. Also, the PG stock reflects a 25.3% premium from its 52-week low of $141.45.
P&G's Price Performance
PG is trading above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating robust upward momentum and price stability. This technical strength reflects positive market perception and confidence in PG’s financial health and prospects.
P&G Stock Trades Above 50 and 200-Day Moving Average
Strategies Support PG’s Rally
P&G is a stalwart in the consumer goods industry, with a comprehensive business model and operations in more than 180 countries. PG features a diverse portfolio of brands in categories like home care, personal care and health care. Its strong brand loyalty enables it to command premium pricing, sustain market share and compete effectively, reinforcing its market leadership.
The stock’s upward trajectory is well-supported by its stringent focus on productivity and cost-saving plans to boost margins. Continued investments in the business, alongside efforts to offset macro cost headwinds and balance top and bottom-line growth, underscore its productivity efforts. The company is focusing on achieving significant cost savings in its operations.
For fiscal 2024, PG delivered strong cost savings and is exploring more opportunities to save as it continues to develop its three-year rolling productivity master plans. The goal is to achieve up to $1.5 billion in gross savings in the cost of goods sold before tax in the next three years. The execution of this target is supported by its platform programs with global applications across key categories such as "Supply Chains 3.0," which involves modernizing and optimizing supply-chain operations.
Also, collaboration with retailers enables identifying more comprehensive and effective savings opportunities. The company uses digital tools to improve fill rates, and optimize dynamic routing and sourcing. These technological advancements are expected to create saving opportunities of $200-$300 million, with a target to reduce overhead costs and improve the effectiveness of its marketing efforts.
PG Falls Short of Industry Peers
Shares of Procter & Gamble have shown a steady year-to-date rise. However, a close study of the stock performance reveals that it has underperformed the industry in this period. Notably, the PG stock has risen 21% year to date compared with the industry’s rally of 23.4%.
The PG stock has also underperformed its peers like Colgate-Palmolive CL and Unilever UL, which recorded gains of 32.3% and 35.3%, respectively, in the year-to-date period.
PG Vs Peers
Obstacles in P&G’s Global Strategy
Unlike its peers, Procter & Gamble faces soft trends in certain international markets, including market issues in Greater China, challenging macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions across various regions and substantial financial impacts of currency volatility.
The company continues to face weak market conditions in Greater China, its second-largest market, due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions that dampened consumer spending trends in the region. Brand-specific issues with its flagship beauty brand, SK-II, linked to its Japanese heritage, is another headwind. Backed by these challenges, organic sales in the region fell 8% year over year in the fourth quarter, with a 9% decline for fiscal 2024.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, sluggish sales were led by weak market conditions, contributing to a significant drop during the key 6/18 shopping period, mirroring earlier declines during Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day. While P&G expects gradual improvement in market trends and SK-II performance, it does not anticipate a return to growth in the region or for SK-II for at least another quarter or two.
P&G is also experiencing soft volume trends in several enterprise markets across Europe, and the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa regions, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia. These markets have been particularly affected by geopolitical tensions, reducing consumer spending and slowing retail activity. Ongoing boycotts of Western brands in the Middle East pose further challenges.
The company is also grappling with currency volatility and rising commodity costs. P&G projects significant after-tax impacts of $200 million from foreign exchange fluctuations and $300 million from commodity cost pressures in fiscal 2025.
PG’s Premium Valuation
P&G is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 25.06X, exceeding the industry average of 23.89X and the S&P 500’s average of 21.45X. Currently, the PG stock’s valuation seems pricey. The stock also trades at a premium to Clorox CLX, which trades at a forward 12-month P/E of 24.75X.
Investors could face significant downside risks if the company's future performance does not meet expectations. The consumer goods market is becoming increasingly competitive, and PG's innovation and market expansion may not be enough to drive significant growth. Economic headwinds and increased competition could hinder the company’s ability to maintain its current growth trajectory.
Is it Prudent to Buy the PG Stock?
While P&G has achieved new highs in its recent stock performance, prospective investors should exercise caution. The company's strong market position, focus on productivity and cost-saving initiatives offer a promising outlook. Its extensive global presence and diverse brand portfolio provide a stable revenue foundation. However, challenges in key markets like Greater China and geopolitical tensions in emerging regions create significant headwinds.
Given the stock’s high valuation and recent rally, investors might be cautious about entering at the current levels, suggesting higher risks. For existing shareholders, holding on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock could be a wise decision, given its strong long-term potential.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
For value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth Score
While good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum Score
Momentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM Score
If you like to use all three kinds of investing, then the VGM Score is for you. It's a combination of all Style Scores, and is an important indicator to use with the Zacks Rank. The VGM Score rates each stock on their shared weighted styles, narrowing down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Clorox (CLX)
Headquartered in Oakland, CA, The Clorox Company is engaged in the production, marketing and sale of consumer products in the U.S. and international markets. The company sells its products primarily through mass merchandisers, grocery stores and other retail outlets. Clorox markets some of the most trusted and recognized brands, including its namesake bleach and cleaning products, Green Works natural cleaners and laundry products, Poett and Mistolin cleaning products, Armor All and STP auto-care products, Fresh Step and Scoop Away cat litter, Kingsford charcoal, Hidden Valley and K C Masterpiece dressings and sauces, Brita water-filtration systems, Glad bags, wraps and containers, and Burt’s Bees natural personal care products. The company manufactures products in over 24 countries and markets them in more than 100 countries.
CLX is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Consumer Staples stock. CLX has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 11.2% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2025, seven analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.18 to $6.63 per share. CLX boasts an average earnings surprise of 122.9%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, CLX should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
While markets are trading close to all-time highs, the upside is still primarily driven by mega-cap tech stocks that are part of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, such as Oracle . However, several companies in sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and energy are still trading at lower valuations, as investors are worried about slower consumer spending, elevated interest rates, and the lingering prospect of an economic slowdown.
Lululemon and Dollar Tree are two large-cap stocks trading significantly below their record highs, which could make them attractive to value and contrarian investors. However, investing in beaten-down stocks is a tricky strategy, as you need to identify whether the pullback is due to macroeconomic factors or company-specific issues.
Notably, insider buying is one data point you can use to try and identify quality stocks trading at a discount. While there may be plenty of reasons for insiders to sell a stock, there is generally only one reason that insiders buy a stock - because they think the price will rise.
Lululemon and Dollar Tree are two beaten-down stocks insiders are buying this month. Let’s see if you should also include them in your equity portfolio.
The Bull Case for LULU Stock
Lululemon Athletica , valued at $33.3 billion by market cap, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel and accessories. These products are sold through a chain of company-operated stores, a network of wholesale accounts such as yoga studios, health clubs, and fitness centers, license and supply agreements, and direct-to-consumer.
Down 48% from all-time highs, Lululemon stock has trailed the broader markets in recent years. In fiscal Q2 of 2024 (ended in July), Lululemon reported revenue of $2.37 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.15 per share, compared to estimates of $2.41 billion and $2.93 per share. It was the company’s first revenue miss in two years, as results were negatively impacted by slowing growth and the botched launch of a highly anticipated product.
For fiscal 2024, LULU lowered its sales guidance to a range between $10.375 billion and $10.475 billion - down from its previous midpoint estimate of $10.75 billion, and short of Wall Street's average estimate of $10.62 billion. Management also reduced its earnings forecast, which is now between $13.95 per share and $14.15 per share, compared to its previous midpoint estimate of $14.37 per share.
Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald bought 4,000 company shares on Sept. 3 at $260 each for a total investment of $1.04 million, which might spur investor optimism. This marks the first insider buy on LULU since last March - and remarkably, McDonald's first purchase of LULU since he became CEO of the retailer in 2018.
Out of the 27 analysts covering LULU stock, 14 recommend “strong buy,” two recommend “moderate buy,” nine recommend “hold,” one recommends “moderate sell,” and one recommends “strong sell.”
The average target price for LULU is $318.57, indicating an upside potential of 20% from current levels. Priced at three times forward sales and 19 times forward earnings, LULU stock trades at a reasonable valuation.
Is Dollar Tree Stock Worth Buying?
Valued at $14.98 billion by market cap, Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock is down 60.6% from all-time highs, and recently set a new three-year low. The stock fell more than 22% on Sept. 4 after its fiscal Q2 results, as its revenue of $7.38 billion on adjusted earnings per share of $0.97 fell short of Wall Street's estimated $7.49 billion and $1.04, respectively.
Dollar Tree noted that increasing pressures on middle-and high-income customers have led to lower demand. In the last 12 months, Dollar Tree has reported revenue of $30.97 billion, an increase of 5.7% year over year, slower than its sales growth of 8% in fiscal 2024.
At the midpoint of its forecast, Dollar Tree expects revenue of $30.75 billion and earnings of $5.40 per share in fiscal 2025, lower than its previous guidance of $31.5 billion and $6.75 per share, respectively. The lower forecast reflects softer sales and costs related to converting 99 Cents Only stores and higher expenses associated with settling litigation claims related to customer accidents and other store incidents.
On Sept. 6, Dollar Tree board member and finance committee chair Daniel Heinrich, who formerly served as CFO of Clorox , purchased 2,200 shares at $68.27 for a total outlay of about $150,194. Heinrich has been purchasing DLTR at semi-regular intervals over the years - and he apparently thinks the stock is a bargain at current levels, as he upped the share count by more than double from his March 2024 purchase, when DLTR was trading around $127.85.
Out of the 21 analysts covering DLTR stock, nine recommend “strong buy,” 11 recommend “hold,” and one recommends “moderate sell,” for an overall “moderate buy” consensus.
Priced at 0.5x forward sales and 12.9x forward earnings, DLTR stock is relatively cheap. The 12-month mean target price for DLTR stock is $82.59, indicating a 14.8% upside to current prices.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Shares of The Clorox Company CLX hit a new 52-week high of $167.75 yesterday before dropping just under 1% to close trading at $166.97. Moreover, the current stock price reflects a 146% premium from its 52-week low of $67.62.
Over the past three months, Clorox shares have surged 25.6%, outpacing the industry’s growth of 11.3% and the S&P 500’s 1.1% return. The stock also trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating strong investor confidence and a bullish market sentiment.
The recent upswing in Clorox's shares is driven by several key factors. The company has successfully navigated from the cyber-attack that occurred earlier in the year, restoring its supply and distribution and regaining across most of its markets where it lost share. This recovery was driven by a revitalized supply chain and robust merchandising efforts across its portfolio.
Additionally, Clorox made significant progress in advancing its IGNITE strategy, which focuses on growth and innovation. The company has completed the implementation of its streamlined operating model and strengthened digital transformation efforts, positioning itself for continued success in the evolving market landscape.
Let’s analyze whether Clorox will continue its recent positive momentum or if a pullback is likely ahead.
Factors Driving Clorox’s Momentum
Clorox has completed the implementation of a streamlined operating model. This new structure is expected to generate ongoing annual cost savings of approximately $100 million, enhancing operational efficiency by a great margin.
The operating model helps to increase efficiencies and transform the company's operations in the areas of supply chain, digital commerce, innovation and brand building over the long term. The company has been strengthening its competitive advantage, accelerating profitable growth and preparing for long-term success while recovering from the cyber-attack witnessed earlier in the year.
Clorox is on track with the IGNITE strategy, which includes the long-term financial goals of 2-4% net sales growth, EBIT margin expansion of 25-50 basis points, and free cash flow generation of 11-13% of sales. Also, the company remains focused on delivering value superiority by making substantial investments in advertising and launching innovative products across its key brands.
Recent innovations from Clorox include the Clorox Toilet Bomb Foaming Toilet Bowl Cleaner and the Pine-Sol concentrated multi-surface cleaner. The company also launched the Brita Refillable Water Filtration System, seven new Hidden Valley Ranch flavors, and new fragrances in the Glad ForceFlex Scented Trash Bag lineup. These innovations underscore Clorox's commitment to boosting consumer value and brand loyalty through product diversification.
Additionally, the company's international business offers strong potential for long-term growth. The company is making good progress in its core international markets, leveraging the success of its Go Lean strategy to drive profitable growth. Guided by its IGNITE Strategy, which focuses on enhancing the profitability of the international segment, Clorox plans to make selective investments in profitable platforms. Management remains committed to exploring further international opportunities.
In line with its strategic focus, Clorox yesterday completed the sale of its Better Health Vitamins, Minerals, and Supplements business to Piping Rock Health Products. The sale forms a part of its strategy to focus on core areas and enhance shareholder value. The divestiture includes the Natural Vitality, NeoCell, Rainbow Light, and RenewLife brands, along with related trademarks, licenses, and manufacturing and distribution facilities in Sunrise, FL.
As a part of its digital endeavors, Clorox plans to invest $500 million in transformative technologies and processes in the next few years. This includes upgrading its enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, transitioning to a cloud-based platform, and implementing other digital technologies.
Of the $500 million, Clorox expects to record 55% as incremental operating costs within selling and administrative expenses, which will be adjusted from the reported EPS for adjusted EPS disclosure purposes. Approximately 70% of these costs will be related to the ERP implementation, with the rest associated with other technology upgrades.
What do Estimates Say About CLX?
Reflecting the positive sentiment around Clorox, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions. Over the past 30 days, analysts have increased their current and next fiscal year estimates by 0.5% to $6.63 and by 0.1% to $6.98 per share, respectively. These estimates indicate expected year-over-year growth rates of around 7.5% and 5.4%, respectively.
Near-term Challenges on Clorox’s Path
Clorox has encountered challenges from persistent inflation and changing market conditions, leading to a 6% year-over-year decline in net sales in fourth-quarter fiscal 2024. This downside is attributed to an unfavorable price mix, lower volumes, and the impact of the divestiture of the Argentina business. On an organic basis also, sales fell 3% year over year.
In fiscal 2025, management anticipates that continued consumer pressure will affect category growth, with net sales expected to be flat to down 2% from the prior year.
The company has been grappling with increased SG&A expenses due to accelerated investments in digital capabilities. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, advertising expenses rose 26.1% year over year.
For fiscal 2025, management projects SG&A expense in the band of 15-16% of net sales, including an estimated 150 bps impact from investments in digital capabilities and productivity enhancements. Advertising and sales promotion spending is expected to be between 11% and 11.5% of net sales, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to brand investment. Clorox’s gross margin expansion in fiscal 2025 may be partially offset by cost inflation and increased trade promotional expenses.
Clorox’s Premium Valuation
With the stock steadily on a steady rise, the company is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 25.12X, exceeding the industry average of 24.29X and the S&P 500’s average of 20.97X. Currently, Clorox’s stock valuation seems relatively expensive.
Investors should be cautious if the company's future performance does not meet expectations. The consumer goods market is becoming increasingly competitive, and CLX’s innovation and market expansion may not be enough to drive significant growth. We believe investors should wait for a better entry point for Clorox, which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Three Stocks to Consider
Here, we have highlighted three better-ranked food stocks, namely, The Chef's Warehouse CHEF, Pilgrim’s Pride PPC and Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI.
The Chef’s Warehouse, which engages in the distribution of specialty food products, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CHEF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.7%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimated figure for The Chef’s Warehouse’s current fiscal year sales and earnings indicates growth of 9.7% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.
Pilgrim’s Pride, which produces, processes, markets and distributes fresh, frozen and value-added chicken and pork products, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. PPC delivered a positive earnings surprise of 27.3% in the trailing four quarters, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimated figure for Pilgrim’s Pride’s current financial-year earnings indicates growth of 183.43%, respectively, from the prior-year reported level.
Ollie's Bargain, the extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimated figure for Ollie's Bargain’s current financial-year sales and earnings indicates a rise of around 8.7% and 12.71%, respectively, from the year-earlier levels.
Zacks Investment Research
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