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CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index is down $1997.18 today or 3.33% to $57893.80
Note: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) at 4 p.m. ET close
Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data
Bitcoin’s price is still consolidating around the $60K level. Yet, an impulsive move might begin soon.Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, it is evident that the price has yet to climb back and recover definitively above the $60K level after its rapid rejection and drop from the 200-day moving average, located around $63K.
Following the recent rebound from the $52,500 level, the price has once again tested the pivotal range. This is important because for the market to begin a new rally, both $60K and the 200-day moving average should be broken to the upside first.The 4-Hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price is in a critical area, as it is testing a bullish trendline which has been respected for the last couple of weeks.
If the trendline holds, a rise above the $60K level would be highly probable. However, a breakdown of this range could result in a drop toward $57K and even the $53K area in the coming weeks.On-Chain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)Bitcoin Funding Rates
The futures market has played a significant role in determining the short-term price action of Bitcoin over the last few years. Therefore, analyzing its sentiment can be highly beneficial.
This chart demonstrates the Bitcoin funding rates metric, which measures whether the buyers or the sellers are more dominant in the futures market. Positive values indicate bullish sentiment, while negative funding rates are associated with fear and bearish sentiment.
As evident on the chart, the rates have decreased significantly during the recent price consolidation and correction, as many futures traders have either been liquidated or shifted their views on the market and are now on the sell side.
While this is a clear bearish sentiment signal, it can also mean that the market is no longer overheated, and with sufficient spot buying pressure, a sustainable rally can begin soon.
Someone recently paid 26,000 XRP ($15,315 at current prices) in order to send just 0.15 XRP.
As noted by Vet, operator of the XRP Ledger dUNL Validator, the mishap likely involved a developer whose script ended up bugging out due to bad code.
Normal users of apps of the likes of Xaman, a non-custodial wallet for the XRP Ledger, cannot experience such incidents since far-finger errors are supposed to be automatically prevented.
As reported by U.Today, a Bitcoin user paid $47,000 to send an insignificant transaction back in November 2020. Back then, the block with the massive fee was produced by Huobi's mining hub.
Back in 2016, a Bitcoin user ended up paying an eye-popping $137,000 fee. It is likely that he or she entered the transaction details manually since popular wallets are supposed to set the fee automatically. However, it remained unclear whether the user actually sent the funds by mistake.
Such bizarre cases continue to be recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain. Last year, for instance, a user paid a staggering $3.1 million fee (which constituted the lion's share of the transaction value). Even major crypto firms can make such mistakes. Blockchain infrastructure provider Paxos paid a $500,000 transaction fee last September. The F2Pool miner ended up returning the exorbitantly high transaction fee.
Ethereum users are also not immune to fat-finger mistakes. In 2021, a user paid $36,000 to send a single Ethereum transaction.
As reported by U.Today, someone also paid an enormous transaction fee of 20 Ethereum last February.
The XRP Ledger is particularly known for its extremely low transaction fees ($0.0002), which is why the abnormally high fee is even more jarring.
Ethereum remains in a downward trend, with price action showing insufficient bullish momentum for a reversal.
In the near term, the cryptocurrency is likely to enter a consolidation phase within a critical range, with mild bearish retracements seeming far more likely.Technical Analysis
By ShayanThe Daily Chart
On the daily chart, Ethereum has been in a sustained downtrend since getting rejected at its yearly high of $4K. The price has consistently formed lower lows and lower highs, creating a descending channel that reflects the overall bearish market sentiment. This pattern highlights the pessimism among market participants regarding ETH’s broader trajectory.
Recently, the price was rejected at the channel’s middle boundary around $2.7K, leading to another bearish retracement.
Currently, ETH is trading within a key range, supported by the $2K level and capped by the channel’s middle boundary near the $2.5K resistance. Until the price breaks out of this range, further consolidation is expected.The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum encountered increased selling pressure around the resistance zone between the 0.5 ($2.6K) and 0.618 ($2.7K) Fibonacci levels, resulting in a significant drop toward $2K. The current price action indicates that bearish sentiment still dominates the market, with sellers likely aiming to push the price below its current yearly low at the $2K level.
ETH is now forming an ascending wedge pattern and consolidating near the lower boundary of this formation. A break below it could result in a further decline toward $2K, potentially breaching this support.
However, if buying pressure increases in the short term, Ethereum may see a bullish rebound, with the price retracing toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2.6K.Onchain Analysis
By Shayan
The perpetual futures market plays a crucial role in shaping the overall price movement of the broader crypto market.
Therefore, by examining the sentiment of futures traders, participants can gain valuable insights into potential price trends. This chart shows the 50-day moving average of Ethereum’s funding rates, providing a broader view of whether buyers or sellers are executing orders more aggressively through market orders in the futures market.
Recently, the 50-day moving average of ETH funding rates has been consistently in a downtrend, reaching its lowest levels in 2024.
This persistent decline highlights the prevailing bearish sentiment, signaling a lack of buying interest from traders. For Ethereum to recover and reach higher price levels, demand in the perpetual futures market must increase. If the current trend of negative funding rates continues, it is likely that Ethereum will experience further price declines in the mid-term.
However, it’s important to note that while negative funding rates are typically seen as bearish, they can sometimes be an early signal of market recovery. This is because they can lead to short liquidation cascades, which can trigger price reversals, but this is highly dependent on whether there is sufficient spot buying pressure to support a rebound. Without stronger demand from spot buyers, Ethereum’s price may remain under pressure.
Pepe may be vulnerable to further price declines, despite an increase in whale accumulation. This potential drop underscores the disconnect between large holders’ activity and broader market sentiment.
As the meme coin faces growing pressure, this on-chain analysis explores the sustainability of its current price levels and assesses its short-term outlook.
Whales Buy Pepe, Then Pause
Data from Glassnode reveals that PEPE’s large holders’ netflow has surged by 108% over the past seven days. Netflow measures the difference between tokens accumulated by crypto whales and those distributed.
A negative netflow signals more distribution than accumulation, while a rise suggests increased accumulation. However, in PEPE’s case, the situation is somewhat different.
Although whales initially bought a substantial amount of the meme coin, accumulation stalled around September 13. Since then, there has been little increase in tokens purchased by large holders. As a result, PEPE’s price may struggle to avoid a significant decline.
In addition to whale activity, Pepe’s active addresses also support the bearish outlook. Active addresses reflect user engagement with a cryptocurrency; an increase generally signals strong interaction and is typically bullish.
However, a decline in active addresses suggests reduced traction and lower demand. For PEPE, the number of active addresses has dropped significantly since peaking on September 14, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
PEPE Price Prediction: $0.0000060 Looms
Currently, PEPE’s price sits at $0.0000071, down 31% over the last 90 days. From an on-chain perspective, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator reveals that the meme coin faces resistance near the current price, with 8,600 addresses holding over 31 trillion tokens.
The IOMAP helps identify key support and resistance levels by grouping addresses based on profitability. A higher volume of tokens in a profitable range typically acts as support. Conversely, when a large volume is “out of the money,” it becomes a resistance zone.
In PEPE’s case, the volume held below $0.0000069 is unlikely to offer strong support. If holders at the resistance zone sell, the price could face a further correction.
If PEPE faces a correction, the next level it could drop to is around $0.0000060. However, if demand surges enough to break through the current resistance, this bearish prediction might be invalidated. In that scenario, PEPE’s price could rally toward $0.000010.
In a historic move, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has announced the country’s first debt-free budget for 2025, aiming to break away from its reliance on borrowing.
The proposed budget, which will be submitted to the Legislative Assembly on September 30, reflects a bold fiscal policy designed to balance government spending with revenues, marking a significant shift toward economic independence.
Bukele’s announcement, made during the 203rd anniversary of El Salvador’s independence, underscores his administration’s commitment to sustainable economic growth without accumulating new debt.
El Salvador targets zero budget deficit for 2025
President Nayib Bukele’s 2025 budget proposal represents a dramatic shift from previous years, as it aims for a zero-deficit, debt-free framework.
This move follows the 2024 budget, which faced a $338 million deficit in total spending of $9.1 billion.
Bukele’s strategy eliminates borrowing for everyday government operations, signaling a decisive break from decades of debt accumulation that has strained the country’s finances.
If passed, the new budget could serve as a model for fiscal responsibility and economic stability in the region.
For the first time in recent history, El Salvador’s budget will avoid both local and international borrowing.
Finance Minister Jerson Posada confirmed that the 2025 budget will be fully self-financed, marking a major fiscal turnaround.
In 2019, when Bukele took office, the budget deficit was $1.2 billion.
The proposed 2025 budget highlights the president’s ambition to create a self-sustaining economy where spending does not exceed revenues—a cornerstone of Bukele’s broader vision for economic independence.
Balancing El Salvador’s dual currencies
El Salvador’s ability to avoid deficit spending is partially influenced by its unique dual-currency system.
Since 2001, the country has used the US dollar as its official currency, limiting the government’s ability to print money and cover deficits.
In 2021, Bukele made headlines by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, a move aimed at diversifying the country’s financial system.
While Bitcoin adoption has been controversial due to its volatility and mixed public reception, Bukele remains optimistic that it will contribute to El Salvador’s economic future.
Bitcoin reserves show potential gains but with risks
Although El Salvador has not officially disclosed its Bitcoin reserves, estimates from NayibTracker suggest the country holds around 5,874 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $331.4 million.
This would represent an unrealized gain of 32.6%, or $43 million, based on current market prices.
While Bitcoin’s integration into the economy has faced criticism, particularly due to its unstable value, Bukele sees it as a long-term strategic move to diversify the country’s financial assets.
However, he has acknowledged the limited adoption of Bitcoin so far and is working on improvements.
IMF discussions signal cautious optimism for El Salvador
In August, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported positive progress in its discussions with El Salvador regarding a potential support program.
The talks focused on strengthening the country’s public finances, improving governance, and managing risks associated with Bitcoin.
The IMF’s cautious optimism reflects growing international interest in El Salvador’s economic policies, especially its approach to cryptocurrency.
The outcome of these discussions could have significant implications for the country’s financial stability and long-term growth.
With Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party holding 57 of the 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the 2025 budget is expected to pass with minimal opposition.
The party’s overwhelming majority virtually guarantees that the debt-free budget will be implemented, potentially reshaping El Salvador’s economic governance for years to come.
Bukele’s focus on fiscal responsibility, coupled with his bold economic strategies, sets the stage for a new era of financial independence in El Salvador.
The market capitalization of all fungible tokens stands at more than $2 trillion as of Sept. 16. Of that total, altcoins — cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum — have gained around $240 billion in combined market value over the last 12 months.
Despite this powerful overall growth, the majority of new tokens launched in 2024 have performed poorly and failed to gain sufficient traction. Why haven’t new tokens gained value in a manner similar to their predecessors? One word: attention. The market cap for altcoins is up because it comprises a stunning number of new tokens that were launched in 2024. However, this abundance of tokens has also greatly diluted attention for individual altcoins, causing fragmented liquidity that in turn produces weak price performance post-listing.
The market cap of altcoins grew by more than 70% in one year, which is in line with the two main cryptocurrencies. The obvious difference is that, while Bitcoin and Ether are single currencies, there are millions of different altcoins, each contributing to the altcoin market cap. The dominance of bitcoin and ether (the market share of those cryptocurrencies compared against altcoins) remained fairly stable throughout the year.
But on an individual level, most altcoins launched in 2024 performed poorly. Much of the discussion about this problem has focused on the negative impact on token value resulting from excessively high fully-diluted values (FDVs) and low circulating supply, or the divide between venture capital and retail investors. However, at least one analysis — by Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi — found insufficient evidence to conclude that the poor performance of altcoins in 2024 could be ascribed to those factors.
In a saturated market, attention is the new currency
The total number of altcoins has increased by 107% in one year, growing from 1.69 million tokens as of August 2023 to over 3.5 million tokens today. In stark contrast, the crypto user base has grown far less rapidly over the same period. Global crypto ownership increased by 33% from 2023 to 2023 — from 420 million people to 562 million.
So we’re looking at a situation in which the offering of altcoins has more than doubled while the addressable audience increased only by a third. Consumer attention has been greatly diluted.
This abundance of altcoins and the resulting dilution of attention are not particularly unusual in a growing market. For example, in the early days of the Web, a veritable plethora of IRC chat rooms, message boards and websites sprang up, all of them competing for traffic and diluting the attention of a burgeoning audience.
Today’s profusion of altcoins means that awareness has become a highly competitive matter for all altcoins, not just new ones — tokens launched prior to 2024 have also suffered a dilution in attention and (consequently) value.
Tokens with institutional investors outperform the competition
Well-performing tokens in 2024 tend to have significant institutional interest from liquid funds. Liquid institutional investors invest via the open market, as opposed to investing at the startup stage the way that VC firms do, and as such can have a notable impact on the performance of altcoins. Altcoins such as TON , SOL , XRP , BNB , ADA (ADA), TRX , AVAX , SUI (SUI), and MOCA are examples of tokens with institutional support.
That support can help altcoins to offset the dilution of attention in a teeming market. Institutions are discerning and disciplined in how they invest, and try to zero in on fundamental long-term prospects rather than investing in short-term outlooks such as those of many altcoins (and definitely most memecoins). This institutional participation makes an altcoin stand out from the crowd and instills greater confidence among retail investors. As opposed to the current environment of diluted attention and fragmented liquidity, institutional liquid funds could bring improved attention, focus and liquidity to altcoins.
Institutional investors also have the capacity to deploy significantly more capital and on a longer time horizon than retail investors, and this can contribute to enhancing price stability in the market. Altcoins that lack institutional support tend to be subject to greater volatility.
At Animoca Brands, we have provided institutional support for projects and initiatives including by participating in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s stablecoin issuer sandbox (with Standard Chartered and HKT); partnering with Saudi Arabia’s NEOM; investing in TON; and investing in Mocaverse — specifically with MOCA Foundation’s launch of MOCA Coin, has received support from other institutional investors. Our aim is to equip our supported projects with essential capabilities. We have also expanded our investment mandate to include tokens already listed, with an emphasis on tokens from our portfolio of Web3 investments.
The current market presents significant opportunities for launched altcoins with solid institutional appeal and capability, and they stand a far greater chance of success amid the shifting market dynamics.
There is room for more institutional investment
There is room for institutional investment in crypto to grow. Institutional investors dominate the US equity market, where they hold 80% of the large-cap S&P 500’s market capitalization. This contrasts strongly with the more diversified Web3 market, where the institutional footprint is still low and concentrated on Bitcoin. As of June, 77% of institutional asset managers had allocated just 5% or less of their funds to cryptocurrencies and related assets, with a preference for registered vehicles.
Consider that Bitcoin's market cap is around $1.1 trillion — while Bitcoin ETFs represent less than $80 billion. This disparity highlights both the need and the opportunity for Web3 to foster a more balanced market, one where institutional holdings might reach around 50% of the Web3 market.
Greater institutional participation could engender greater trust in Web3 projects while introducing substantial new long-term capital. Web3 projects that are capable of attracting institutional interest will stand out in this crowded market, providing one important pathway to overcoming the problem of attention dilution. We believe that financial institutions are essential in Web3, just as they are in other industries, and Web3 projects that seek meaningful long-term success would be well advised to pursue strategies that enable them to secure institutional participation.
Yat Siu is a guest columnist for Cointelegraph and the co-founder and executive chairman of Animoca Brands, a Web3 leader with more than 540 investments in the sector.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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