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Deckers (DECK) closed at $157.23 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.37% move from the prior day. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.29% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.25%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.31%.
The maker of Ugg footwear's stock has dropped by 1.9% in the past month, falling short of the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 4.15% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Deckers in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $1.21, signifying an 82.26% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $1.19 billion, showing a 9.15% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $5.27 per share and revenue of $4.78 billion. These totals would mark changes of -81.93% and +11.5%, respectively, from last year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Deckers. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the company's business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.05% higher. Deckers presently features a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
Looking at valuation, Deckers is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 29.45. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 17.27.
Investors should also note that DECK has a PEG ratio of 2.73 right now. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. Retail - Apparel and Shoes stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.83 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 88, which puts it in the top 35% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
Zacks Investment Research
** Footwear maker Deckers Outdoor Corp's shares DECK.N rise as much as 4.5% to $162.05
** BofA maintains its PT of $170 and "neutral" rating
** BofA analyst Christopher Nardone says management struck a positive tone on the opportunities for continued growth at HOKA in a virtual meeting with CFO Steve Fasching
** Brokerage expects a more balanced growth between direct to customer and wholesale channel
** BofA says the U.S. market for HOKA is "limited" and competition is "fierce"
** Believes international sales for HOKA will grow faster than the U.S. market
** Notes slower pace of slowdown in HOKA demand in China despite a broader slump in Chinese sportswear market
** 16 of 23 brokerages rate the stock "buy" or higher, 6 "hold" and 1 "sell" ; with a median PT of $180.83
** Up to Tuesday's close, stock had risen ~39% YTD
(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru)
((Neil.JKanatt @thomsonreuters.com ))
Cooling inflation and rising expectations of a potential interest rate cut have lifted U.S. consumer sentiment to its highest level in four months this September. The University of Michigan's preliminary report showed the sentiment index climbing to 69, up from 67.9 in August. This improvement even surpassed the market's estimate of 68.5, indicating a growing sense of optimism about the economy.
This boost in sentiment marks the second consecutive month of growth. Although inflation remains a concern, its recent moderation, along with lower gasoline prices, has increased consumers' purchasing power. This positive shift bodes well for the retail sector, suggesting that companies like Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM, Chewy, Inc. CHWY and Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK could experience higher sales as consumers feel more confident about spending.
In August, inflation reached its lowest level since February 2021, with the Consumer Price Index showing only a modest increase of 0.2% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, inflation rose by 2.5%, down from July's 2.9% growth, reflecting a steady cooling in price pressures. The sustained decrease in inflation has brought it closer to the Fed’s desirable target of 2%.
The Federal Reserve has been closely watching these trends. In response, market pundits anticipate a quarter-percentage-point cut in interest rates. This move could ease borrowing costs, supporting both consumer spending and business investment.
While some caution remains due to the upcoming November presidential election, the overall outlook is optimistic. As consumers enter the final quarter of the year, their increased confidence about financial situations is setting a positive tone for the retail sector heading into the holiday season.
Past-Year Stock Price Performance of ANF, SFM, CHWY & DECK
4 Prominent Retail Stocks
Abercrombie & Fitch: Brand Visibility & Global Expansion
Abercrombie & Fitch stands out as a strong investment choice. The company excels in integrating digital and physical retail channels, offering a seamless shopping experience and driving higher customer satisfaction and loyalty. Strategic marketing initiatives, particularly targeted campaigns in key markets, have been effective in boosting brand visibility and customer acquisition. The introduction of innovative product lines meets specific customer needs and broadens the brand's appeal. Abercrombie & Fitch’s regional operating model, with a focus on the Americas, the EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) and the APAC (Asia-Pacific), provides a solid foundation for global expansion.
This leading, global, omnichannel specialty retailer of apparel and accessories for men, women and kids has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share (EPS) suggests growth of 13.1% and 63.4% from the year-ago period. The company sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sprouts Farmers: Product Innovation & Competitive Pricing
Sprouts Farmers, operating in a highly fragmented grocery industry, is a compelling option. The company has adopted a multifaceted approach to expand its customer base and cater to evolving consumer preferences. Through product innovation, targeted marketing and competitive pricing, Sprouts Farmers ensures that its offerings resonate with its diverse customer base. The company’s commitment to offering fresh, natural and organic products aligns with the growing consumer demand for healthier food options.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers’ current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 9.6% and 18.7%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. SFM, which sports a Zacks Rank #1, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.
Chewy: Autoship Growth & Veterinary Expansion
Chewy is a notable player in the online pet retail market. The company’s Autoship program, central to its revenue strategy, drives significant sales through its subscription-based model, focusing on essential consumables and healthcare products. Chewy’s premium product offerings and growth in Net Sales Per Active Customer reflect strong customer loyalty and repeat purchases. The expansion into veterinary services through new clinics enhances customer acquisition and retention. The growing Sponsored Ads business is on track to become a significant revenue stream.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chewy’s current fiscal sales and EPS suggests growth of 5.7% and 65.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50.9%, on average.
Deckers: Direct-to-Consumer & International Growth
Deckers also presents a solid investment opportunity. The company has shown robust growth through its strategic focus on expanding its brand presence and strengthening direct-to-consumer channels. This approach, along with a commitment to innovation in product development and a keen focus on international market expansion, has positioned the company for continued success. Deckers' commitment to elevating renowned brands like UGG and HOKA into global lifestyle icons enhances brand equity and market reach.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 11.5% and 8.4%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 47.2%, on average.
Zacks Investment Research
Tractor Supply Company TSCO seems to be in a good spot, thanks to its strong business strategies. The company is reaping the benefits of its Life Out Here Strategy and the Neighbor’s Club membership program. Its ‘ONETractor’ strategy, which is aimed at connecting stores and online shopping, appears encouraging too. The company has been accelerating its digital capabilities, which has been leading to higher customer engagement and improvement in the conversion rate. The overall customer base has been robust with healthy customer engagement.
Given the changing consumer trends, Tractor Supply is focused on integrating its physical and digital operations to offer consumers a seamless shopping experience. The company’s omnichannel investments include curbside pickup, same-day and next-day delivery, a re-launched website and a new mobile app.
TSCO is significantly enhancing its Neighbor's Club offering. Growth in customer counts and customer retention remain sturdy. Tractor Supply launched Hometown Heroes, which helps recognize military service members, veterans and first responders. This program comes with one banner, which is supporting selfless men and women. We note that nearly 20% of the Hometown Heroes as of the second quarter of 2024 were new to Neighbor's Club and 15% new to Tractor Supply.
In the most recent quarter, Neighbor's Club comp sales surpassed the company’s overall sales. Tractor Supply has reached an all-time high in its sales penetration, recording membership of more than 36 million. About 5 million members were added in the last 12 months. The company concentrates on improving personalization capabilities, mainly its customer data platform, which is expected to be implemented later in the year. Its live goods performance also bodes well.
Regarding its store-growth initiatives, Tractor Supply is persistently focused on the expansion of its store base and the incorporation of technological advancements to boost traffic. These store investments target higher market share and boost productivity across existing and new stores. Its new store productivity seems appealing. The addition of new product categories, greater ease of shopping and modern services enables the company to serve its customers efficiently.
Factors Hindering TSCO’s Growth
Despite its robust initiatives, Tractor Supply is not immune to the difficulties of the current economic landscape. The company grapples with softness in goods. The ongoing shift in spending from goods to services has been a headwind. It has also been witnessing softness in its discretionary businesses like clothing, footwear and decor and in the hardline products of the business, including ag, fencing and pet kennels. As for the retail price, the company’s plans continue to show a headwind from deflation in the third quarter with a moderation in the fourth quarter.
Tractor Supply is reeling under higher depreciation and amortization along with the costs related to the opening of a distribution center. Cost inflation is also concerning. Due to these factors, selling, general and administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, as a percentage of sales, expanded 58 basis points year over year in the second quarter. In dollar terms, the metric rose 4.1%. Management anticipates modest fixed cost deleverage ahead. This is likely to affect the company’s profitability in the near term.
Conclusion
Nevertheless, shares of this leading rural lifestyle retailer have gained 37.4% in a year, outperforming the industry’s 14.2% growth. TSCO’s growth efforts have driven this outperformance.
Analysts seem quite optimistic about the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) is currently pegged at $14.9 billion and $10.23, respectively. These estimates indicate corresponding growth of 2.4% and 1.4% year over year. The consensus estimate for 2025 sales and EPS is presently pegged at$15.8 billion and $11.13, respectively, implying a year-over-year increase of 5.7% and 8.9%.
Investors who already invested in the stock can retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company.
Key Picks
We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks, namely Abercrombie ANF, Boot Barn BOOT and Deckers DECK.
Abercrombie & Fitch, a leading casual apparel retailer, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 13.1% from the year-ago figure. ANF delivered an earnings surprise of 16.8% in the last reported quarter.
Boot Barn, a leading footwear, apparel and accessories retailer, presently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1. BOOT delivered an average earnings surprise of 7.1% in the trailing four quarters.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 11.6% from the year-ago figure.
Deckers, a footwear and accessories dealer, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). DECK delivered an average earnings surprise of 47.2% in the trailing four quarters.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales indicates growth of 11.5% from the year-ago figure.
Zacks Investment Research
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