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Diageo DEO shares have portrayed a dismal performance on the bourses since the start of 2024. The stock pullback stems from the troubles faced in the company’s key markets, including the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and North America. The gloomy outlook for these segments has hurt investors’ sentiments for the stock.
Shares of this London-based alcohol company have lost 8.4% in the year-to-date period compared with a 7.2% decline in the broader industry and 10.9% growth in the Consumer Staples sector. In the same time frame, the S&P 500 has risen 18.1%. The DEO stock has also lost 16% in the past year and plunged 28.9% in the past three years.
The stock’s current price of $133.40 reflects an 11.7% premium to its 52-week low mark of $119.48 and a 17.5% discount from its 52-week high of $161.64.
Diageo’s One-Year Stock Price Performance
Diageo is trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish outlook and challenges in sustaining the recent performance levels.
DEO’s Stock Trades Below 200-Day Moving Average
Major Setbacks Limiting DEO’s Growth Potential
Diageo’s recent struggles are related to the fast-changing consumer sentiment and high inventory levels, affecting its LAC business, which accounts for 10% of its net sales. In fiscal 2023, changing consumer preferences led to elevated inventories, and the situation worsened in fiscal 2024 as the company struggled to align stock with sluggish demand.
While Brazil, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of South LAC saw some demand stabilization and market share gains in the latter half of fiscal 2024, Mexico faces a highly competitive landscape and consumer downtrading.
Net sales in LAC fell 15%, with organic net sales down 21% in fiscal 2024. This was driven by reduced demand for premium international spirits, inventory adjustments, and strong comparisons with last year's growth. Price/mix dropped 6 percentage points due to consumer downtrading and increased trade investments. Despite efforts to address these issues, Diageo remains cautious about its LAC outlook, anticipating continued macroeconomic challenges.
The North American performance remains a concern for Diageo, as the U.S. spirits market is impacted by a cautious consumer environment, retailer inventory adjustments, and comparisons with last year's restocking. Net sales for the U.S. spirits category declined 3% in fiscal 2024, driven by a 5% volume drop. The North America segment saw a 2% decline in net sales and a 3% drop in organic sales due to lower sales in U.S. Spirits and Canada, partially offset by growth in Diageo Beer Company. At the end of fiscal 2024, distributor inventories were in line with historical norms.
In addition to sluggish revenue trends, Diageo is grappling with inflationary pressures caused by rising costs for commodities like agave, higher energy expenses, and supply chain disruptions. While productivity savings, supply efficiencies, and pricing adjustments have helped offset some of these pressures, significant cost increases in glass, paper, metal, and transportation have strained finances.
Organic operating profit dipped 4.8% year over year in fiscal 2024, with a $302 million decline in the LAC region and a $142 million decrease in North America. The organic operating margin declined 130 basis points, impacted by weak performance in the LAC region and a cautious U.S. consumer market.
The company expects a difficult operating environment to continue in fiscal 2025, with the fiscal 2024 trends persisting. The negative impact on the organic operating margin seen in the second half of fiscal 2024 is anticipated to carry over into fiscal 2025.
DEO's Premium Valuation
Despite the downside, Diageo is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 18.68X, exceeding the industry average of 17.68X.
The premium valuation suggests that investors have strong expectations for Diageo’s future performance and growth potential. However, the stock seems somewhat overvalued at these levels. As a result, investors might be hesitant to buy at these elevated levels and may prefer to wait for a more favorable entry point.
Diageo’s Estimates Reflect Uptrend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DEO’s fiscal 2024 and 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has risen 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, in the past seven days. The upward revisions in earnings estimates indicate analysts’ improved confidence in the stock.
Long-Term Growth Plans on Track
Although the above discussion might cause some concern, Diageo is making solid progress on its new productivity goal, aiming to achieve $2 billion in savings over three years (fiscal 2025 to 2027). These savings are expected across the cost of goods sold, marketing, and overheads, driven by investments in the supply chain agility program launched in July 2022. The company anticipates benefits from this program to grow starting in fiscal 2025 and accelerate in subsequent years.
Diageo plans to continue leveraging productivity and pricing strategies to counter cost inflation while investing in strategic initiatives for sustainable long-term growth. The company remains confident in the growth potential of the total beverage alcohol sector and aims to increase its value share in the market to 6% by 2030, a 50% rise from current levels.
Diageo is also on track to meet the medium-term target for fiscal 2023-2025, which includes 5-7% organic sales growth and organic operating profit growth in line with net sales.
What is the Best Approach: Buy the Dip or Shy Off?
While Diageo looks poised for long-term growth, caution is warranted for prospective investors, given the ongoing challenges in LAC and North America. DEO’s premium valuation relative to industry peers raises concerns about its sustainability, especially amid competitive pressures and economic uncertainties. Investors should consider these factors carefully and evaluate their risk tolerance.
Current shareholders may consider locking in gains, whereas new investors should exercise caution before approaching this Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock.
3 Consumer Staples Stocks to Consider
We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks from the Consumer Staple sector, namely The Chef's Warehouse CHEF, Coca-Cola KO and Flowers Foods FLO.
The Chef's Warehouse offers specialty food products in the United States. CHEF presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.7%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for CHEF’s current financial year’s sales and EPS indicates growth of 9.7% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures.
Coca-Cola, the global beverage giant, currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KO’s current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 0.6% and 6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures.
Flowers Foods emphasizes providing high-quality baked items, developing strong brands, making innovations to improve capabilities and undertaking prudent acquisitions. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FLO’s current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 1% and 5%, respectively, from the year-earlier actuals. FLO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.9%, on average.
Zacks Investment Research
The latest trading session saw Coca-Cola (KO) ending at $71.80, denoting a -0.42% adjustment from its last day's close. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.03%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.04%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.2%.
Heading into today, shares of the world's largest beverage maker had gained 4.52% over the past month, outpacing the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 4.12% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.54% in that time.
The upcoming earnings release of Coca-Cola will be of great interest to investors. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.75, showcasing a 1.35% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $11.65 billion, down 2.56% from the year-ago period.
KO's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $2.85 per share and revenue of $46.03 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +5.95% and +0.61%, respectively.
Furthermore, it would be beneficial for investors to monitor any recent shifts in analyst projections for Coca-Cola. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 0.03% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Coca-Cola is currently a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
From a valuation perspective, Coca-Cola is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 25.31. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 19.41, so one might conclude that Coca-Cola is trading at a premium comparatively.
It is also worth noting that KO currently has a PEG ratio of 3.99. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Beverages - Soft drinks industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 2.93 as of yesterday's close.
The Beverages - Soft drinks industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 158, putting it in the bottom 38% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Zacks Investment Research
Canada NewsWire
CALGARY, AB, Sept. 17, 2024
CALGARY, AB, Sept. 17, 2024 /CNW/ - Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) announced today the appointment of Arturo Gutiérrez Hernández to the CPKC Board of Directors, effective on Nov. 1, 2024.
Mr. Gutiérrez, 58, of Monterrey, Mexico, has been the chief executive officer of Arca Continental, the second largest Coca-Cola bottler in Latin America, since January 2019.
"The addition of Arturo adds to the extensive, diverse experience of our board, bringing a seasoned chief executive who has spent decades living and working in Mexico," said Isabelle Courville, Chair of the Board at CPKC. "Arturo has a rich leadership and management background and will be an excellent addition to the board.
"We are delighted to welcome Arturo and look forward to his contributions, enriching our board's geographic diversity and fostering our culture of learning and accountability," Ms. Courville added. "Our growing railway will benefit from Arturo's experience which will be integral to our continued success in Mexico and across North America."
Prior to being named CEO at Arca, Mr. Gutiérrez served as deputy chief executive officer and previously held several company positions over the last 23 years, including chief operating officer, director for the Mexico Beverages Division, along with leadership positions in Human Resources, Planning and Legal. Mr. Gutiérrez holds a Law Degree from the Escuela Libre de Derecho and a Master's Degree in Law from Harvard University.
About CPKCWith its global headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Canada, CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States and México, with unrivaled access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf of México to Lázaro Cárdenas, México. Stretching approximately 20,000 route miles and employing 20,000 railroaders, CPKC provides North American customers unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across the continent. CPKC is growing with its customers, offering a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions and supply chain expertise. Visit cpkcr.com to learn more about the rail advantages of CPKC. CP-IR
SOURCE CPKC
Keywords: CPKC-ArturoHernandez
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