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The S&P 500 Index today is up by +0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.81%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.42%.
Stocks today are moderately higher, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 posting 2-week highs and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-1/2 week high. Strength in chip stocks today is lifting the overall market. Also, a decline in bond yields today supports stocks on dovish comments from former New York Fed President Dudley, who said there’s “a strong case for a 50 bp rate cut” at next week’s FOMC meeting. Signs of easing price pressures are also bullish for bonds and stocks after today’s news showed the US Aug import price index ex-petroleum unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase. Stocks extended their gains after the University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to a 4-month high, supporting the prospects for a soft landing.
The University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index rose +1.1 to a 4-month high of 69.0, stronger than expectations of 68.5.
News on inflation expectations was mixed. The University of Michigan US Sep 1-year inflation expectations unexpectedly eased to a 3-3/4 year low of 2.7% from 2.8% in Aug. However, the Sep 5-10 year inflation expectations unexpectedly rose to a 10-month high of 3.1% from 3.0% in Aug.
Corporate news today is mixed for stocks. On the positive side, Uber Technologies is up more than +5% on the news it will be the sole supplier of driverless rides on Alphabet’s Waymo cars in Austin and Atlanta. Also, RH is up more than +22% and is boosting online retailers after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS. On the negative side, Adobe is down more than -8% after forecasting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Also, Boeing is down -0.47% after the company’s workers in Seattle walked off the job for the first time since 2008.
The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 49% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.
Overseas stock markets today settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 1-week high and is up +0.74%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 7-1/4 month low and closed down -0.48%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down by +0.68%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are up +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.3 bp to 3.661%. Dec T-notes are climbing today on dovish comments from former New Tork Fed President Dudley, who said “there’s a strong case for a 50 bp rate cut” at next week’s FOMC meeting. T-notes also found support after the Aug import price index ex-petroleum unexpectedly fell, a dovish factor for Fed policy. In addition, short covering is propping up T-notes as bond dealers cover short hedges put on during this week’s $119 billion Treasury auction slate of T-notes and T-bonds.
T-note prices fell back from their bet levels after the University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to a 4-month high. Also, an increase in inflation expectations undercut T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high today at 2.089%.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.2 bp to 2.153%. The 10-year UK gilt is down -0.7 bp to 3.774%.
Eurozone Jul industrial production fell -0.3% m/m, right on expectations.
ECB President Lagarde said she is open to considering an interest rate cut in October if the Eurozone economy suffers a major setback, but a cut at the December ECB meeting is more likely as we will have more comprehensive information available on the economy by then.
ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said the October ECB meeting might not be the time for another rate cut, but there could be room for another rate cut at the December meeting.
ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said a slump in the Eurozone economy would be required for the ECB to cut interest rates at its next meeting in October.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 47% for the October 17 meeting.
US Stock Movers
Chip stocks are climbing today to support gains in the broader market. Micron Technology is up more than +4%, and ON Semiconductor is up more than +3%. Also, Applied Materials , Microchip Technology , and Lam Research are up more than +2%. In addition, KLA Corp , Texas Instruments GlobalFoundries , NXP Semiconductors NV , and Intel are up more than +1%.
Uber Technologies is up more than +6% on news it will be the sole supplier of driverless rides on Alphabet’s Waymo cars in Austin and Atlanta that will begin next year.
ARM Holdings Plc is up more than +6% after Raymond James initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $160.
Oracle is up more than +3% after raising its 2026 sales outlook to $66 billion from $65 billion, above the consensus of $64.5 billion, and forecasting annual revenue will climb to at least $104 billion in fiscal 2029.
RH is up more than +22% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.69, stronger than the consensus of $1.60. Also, Wayfair is up more than +10%, and Etsy is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 on the news.
Summit Therapeutics is up more than +11%, adding to Thursday’s 20% surge after it raised $235 million from investors in a private placement on the heels of promising late-stage trial data from its lung cancer drug ivonescimab.
Vistra Corp is up more than +3% after Jeffries named the stock its top pick in the power sector with a buy recommendation and a price target of $99.
GE Vernova is up more than +4% after BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $245.
SL Green Realty is up more than +2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to neutral from sell.
Adobe is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting Q4 revenue of $5.50 billion-$5.55 billion, below the consensus of $5.60 billion.
Boeing is down -0.47% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the company’s workers in Seattle walked off the job for the first time since 2008.
Moderna is down more than -3%, adding to Thursday’s -12% plunge after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $70.
Garmin Ltd is down more than -7% after Barclays downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $133.
GE Healthcare is down more than -1% after holder Morgan Stanley offered 10 million shares in a secondary underwritten public offering.
Axon Enterprise is down more than -1% on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed CFO Bagley sold $1.64 million of shares on Thursday.
Earnings Reports (9/13/2024)
Dakota Gold Corp (DC), Selectquote Inc (SLQT), Spire Global Inc (SPIR).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
August saw the equity market make good the losses it experienced post its mid-July peak, with earnings and benign data helping the fightback. With August in the rearview mirror, here’s a look at the leaders and laggards among the S&P 500 Index, a broader gauge of market performance.
3-Part Trend: The month’s trading could be characterized as a tale of three trends. Stocks extended the weakness into August, with the S&P 500 bottoming on Aug. 5, coinciding with the collapse of the global equity markets. The unwinding of the yen carry trades due to the yen’s strength perked up risk aversion, sending Japanese stocks into a tailspin, and the reverberations became evident elsewhere.
The S&P 500 Index fell 4.3% intraday on Aug. 5, which happened to be a Monday. The collapse was promptly dubbed Black Monday 2.0 to differentiate it from the Black Monday crash of Oct. 1987. The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly called VIX, more than doubled to 65.73 intraday before pulling back.
On a positive note, the S&P 500 closed off the lows of the day and was down a more modest 3% by the close.
The market saw a steady recovery from the low through Aug. 22, thanks to a slew of catalysts that reinforced expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee would begin cutting rates at its September meeting.
The strong and rapid recovery pushed traders on the defensive, and the market has been moving sideways since then.
Source: Yahoo Finance
For August, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.28%, ending the month at 5,648.40, off its record closing high of 5,667.20 hit on July 16.
See Also: Best Growth Stocks Right Now
The Leaders: None of the Magnificent seven stocks, which have been spearheading the broader market uptrend since the start of the 2023, made it to the list of the top 10 gainers. The list featured two cybersecurity companies, namely CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. and Fortinet, Inc. . CrowdStrike was rebounding from its global-outage-induced slump seen since July 19.
Fortinet was helped by a strong post-earnings rally.
Two household and personal care products companies also made the cut, while a management change did the truck for coffee chain Starbucks Corp. .
The top 10 gainers for the month are:
The Laggards: Artificial intelligence server manufacturer Super Micro Computer, Inc. , which had a dream run after its inclusion in the S&P 500 Index, plummeted following a short report and the delay flagged by the company in filing its 10-K report. Intel Corp. , which is fraught with fundamental risk, was also one of the worst performers for the month.
A few retailers ended up in the list of the top 10 S&P 500 decliners for August.
The top 10 losers for the month are:
Earnings reactions triggered the weakness seen in some of these stocks, including Intel, and Moderna, which reduced its full-year forecast.
With the Fed all but decided on a September rate cut, some of these beaten-down stocks, especially those in the retail space, could stage a turnaround.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, ended Friday’s session up 0.95% at $563.68, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Read Next:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Etsy . Shares have lost about 7.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Etsy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
ETSY's Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
Etsy reported second-quarter 2024 earnings of 41 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.9%. The bottom-line figure reflects a year-over-year decrease of 8.9%.
Revenues advanced 3% year over year to $647.81 million. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%.
Top-line growth was driven by accelerating Marketplace revenues.
Strong momentum across active sellers and reactivated buyers remained positive.
Top Line in Detail
Marketplace revenues were $470.38 million (72.6% of the total revenues), up 3.8% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The growth was primarily driven by strengthening payments and transaction fee revenue from Offsite Ads. Also, ETSY acquired 5.6 million new buyers, which was a major positive. The total number of active buyers on Etsy’s marketplace stood at 91.5 million, which increased 1% year over year.
Services revenues were $177.43 million (27.4% of the total revenues), up 0.9% on a year-over-year basis.
Quarterly Specifics
Etsy’s active buyer base increased 0.4% from the prior-year quarter’s figure to 96.6 million, which missed the consensus mark of 97.2 million.
The active seller base stood at 8.8 million, up 5.9% year over year. The figure missed the consensus mark of 9.6 million. Increasing investments to support sellers with a targeted marketing campaign to promote the availability of a seller financing program offered via a third-party partner had a positive effect on seller base growth.
ETSY witnessed solid momentum in buyer reactivation. Reactivated buyers were 6.4 million, up 8.5% year over year.
Gross merchandise sales of $2.95 billion were down 2.1% on a reported basis and 1.9% on a currency-neutral basis from the prior-year quarter. The reported figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92 billion.
The Etsy marketplace’s GMS was $2.5 billion, down 3.2% on a reported basis from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Operating Details
In the second quarter of 2024, the gross margin was 71.6%, which expanded 160 basis points year over year.
Total operating expenses were $393.55 million, down 11.1% from the prior-year quarter. As a percentage of revenues, the figure contracted to 60.8% from 70.4% in the year-ago quarter.
Consequently, ETSY reported an operating income of $70.2 million compared with an operating loss of $2.4 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Balance Sheet
As of Jun 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents totaled $759.21 million, which decreased from $788.84 million as of Mar 31, 2024.
Short-term investments were $240.68 million, down from $254.88 million in the previous quarter.
Long-term debt stood at $2.29 billion at the end of the second quarter, up from $2.28 billion at the end of the prior quarter.
Guidance
For the third quarter of 2024, Etsy anticipates the take rate to be similar to the actual second quarter 2024 figure of 22%.
GMS is expected to decline in the low single-digit range on a year-over-year basis.
The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be 27%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -10.16% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Etsy has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Etsy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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