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The European Union unveiled its negotiating stance for the COP29 climate talks next month, while leaving unanswered the key question of how it will boost funding for poorer countries in their fight against global warming.
The European Union unveiled its negotiating stance for the COP29 climate talks next month, while leaving unanswered the key question of how it will boost funding for poorer countries in their fight against global warming.
The United Nations’ summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, has one clear aim: turning billions of dollars in climate finance into trillions while helping countries embark on the climate transition and deal with increasingly extreme weather. Yet many EU countries, grappling with increasingly severe budget deficits, are trying to pressure other countries like China to share the burden.
“We are leading the game,” said Agnes Pannier-Runacher, France’s climate minister, on Europe’s efforts on the financial component. “We cannot be alone around the table trying to fulfil the expectations of most countries across the world.”
EU countries agreed that expanding the donor base of countries is a “prerequisite” for an ambitious new post-2025 climate finance goal, according to conclusions from the bloc’s council. Such a stance reflects “the evolution of respective economic capabilities and increasing shares of global GHG emissions since the early 1990s,” it said.
The tight financial situation sets the stage for tough talks over money next month. In Europe, budgets are being squeezed. In the US, there’s uncertainty over the outcome of the Nov 5 presidential election, which takes place just a few days before COP29. Developed countries hit an agreed US$100 billion (RM431 billion) per year goal two years late, and now they will be expected to cough up even more.
“Ministers agreed to the bare minimum for a constructive EU position on climate finance for COP29,” said Linda Kalcher, executive director at Strategic Perspectives, a European think tank. “Countries in the global south will expect more concreteness on the multiple layers and actual figures for the finance goal from the EU; otherwise, it will not be able to play its traditional role as a bridge-builder for success.”
France is among nations that won’t have much money to spare for climate finance beyond its borders. Its credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Fitch Ratings last week, a day after the government presented its 2025 budget. The agency said it expects a “steep rise” in government debt over the next few years.
Germany, the EU’s largest economy, saw its contribution to green projects overseas fall last year to €5.7 billion (RM26.81), less than the €6 billion Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised the country would pay annually from 2025. It stems from a 12% cut in the development ministry’s budget amid broader economic struggles.
The EU will make its financial contributions for last year available before the start of COP29, which runs from Nov 11-22. During talks on Monday, environment ministers largely focused on the role of nuclear energy and what emphasis to place on the bloc’s plan to cut emissions by 90% by 2040, which is set to be formally put forward next year.
“It’s probably the most difficult negotiation since Paris,” Ireland’s environment minister, Eamon Ryan, said of the COP29 talks, comparing them to the landmark 2015 climate accord. “We have to land a substantial agreement and it’s not certain.”
India's aviation sector will need to pump in more than US$170 billion (RM733.2 billion) through 2030 to finance record aircraft orders and boost airport capacity amid an ongoing traffic boom, S&P Global Ratings said in a report.
India is one of the world's fastest-growing aviation markets and domestic passenger traffic is expected to double to 300 million by 2030, according to government data. Traffic on overseas flights could more than double by then, estimates by aviation research group CAPA India show.
Airlines in the world's most populous country have placed record orders with Airbus and Boeing, and authorities aim to double the number of airports by 2030 in a bid to build global aviation hubs to rival Singapore, Dubai and Doha.
S&P Global Ratings expects Indian carriers will spend US$150 billion to finance outstanding orders of 1,700 aircraft, while US$24 billion will be needed to build new airports and expand existing ones.
"The timing is right to support higher borrowing. Rising passenger air traffic, relatively cheaper domestic financing rates, and conducive government policies on foreign ownership should boost funding prospects for the sector," S&P Global analysts said.
While borrowings for airlines and airports would rise, an increased reliance on aircraft lessors and domestic banks could help ease the burden, the analysts said.
The world oil market is heading for a sizeable surplus in the new year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday as it reassured that the agency stood ready to act if needed to cover any supply disruption from Iran.
Oil prices have risen in recent weeks on investor concern that Israel may retaliate against a missile attack from Iran, a major oil exporter and Opec member, by hitting its oil facilities.
But the IEA, which manages industrialised countries' emergency oil stocks, said public stocks were over 1.2 billion barrels and spare capacity in Opec+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, stood at historic highs.
"As supply developments unfold, the IEA stands ready to act if necessary," the IEA said in a monthly report on Tuesday.
"For now, supply keeps flowing, and in the absence of a major disruption, the market is faced with a sizeable surplus in the new year."
Also in the report, the IEA further cut its global oil demand growth forecast for this year citing weakness in China.
The Paris-based agency now expects Chinese demand to grow by only 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, after consumption dropped by 500,000 bpd in August compared to the same month last year, a fourth consecutive month of declines.
"Chinese oil demand continues to undershoot expectations and is the principal drag on overall growth," the IEA said.
China has for years driven global rises in oil consumption. The IEA has been saying that slower Chinese economic growth and a shift towards electric vehicles have changed the paradigm for the world's second-largest economy.
Opec also reduced its forecast for 2024 global demand growth in a report on Monday, but it projects a much stronger expansion of 1.93 million bpd, driven in part by a stronger contribution from China.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up to a nearly two-month high and attracts some intraday sellers during the first half of the European session on Tuesday. The downtick drags spot prices to the 0.8615 region, or a fresh daily low in the last hour and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats from its highest level since August 8 as bullish traders opt to take some profits off the table following the recent strong rally since the beginning of this month. Any meaningful USD corrective decline, however, seems elusive in the wake of firming expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
In fact, the markets have now fully priced out the possibility of another jumbo rate cut and expect the US central bank to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) at the November policy meeting. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond above the 4% threshold, which should continue to act as a tailwind for the Greenback and help limit the depreciating move for the USD/CHF pair.
Apart from this, a generally positive tone across the global equity markets might hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) and offer support to the currency pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the strong move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run out of steam and positioning for further losses.
Next on tap is the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive USD demand later during the North American session. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment might provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia rose 18.55% in the third quarter from a year earlier to 232.65 trillion rupiah (US$14.94 billion or RM64.4 billion), the investment ministry said on Tuesday.
That compares with a 16.6% annual increase in the second quarter. The data excludes investment in the financial and oil and gas sectors.
FDI has been rising in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, particularly in the mining and metal refining sectors, since it banned exports of nickel ore in 2020 as part of the government's efforts to attract investors in the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.
In the July-September quarter, the base metal industry received US$3.03 billion of investment, transportation, warehousing and telecommunication received US$2.02 billion, and mining recorded US$1.56 billion of investment.
"The main contributors of FDI came from the downstreaming programme," said Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani, referring to the government's efforts to attract investment in the processing of Indonesia's rich natural resources.
Singapore, Hong Kong and China were the biggest sources of FDI.
With investment from domestic sources, there was a total of 431.48 trillion rupiah of direct investment in the third quarter.
Examples of large investment in the period include the completion of copper smelters operated by Freeport-McMoran's Indonesian unit and local miner Amman Mineral Internasional, the minister said.
FDI launches by a South Korean firm and a Chinese company in EV battery making are expected, said Rosan, who was appointed as investment minister in August, without naming the companies.
His predecessor, Bahlil Lahadalia, said in July that South Korea's LG Energy Solution would launch its cathode factory in Central Java later this year, and China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt would start producing battery precursor in north Maluku next year.
Carmakers BYD an Stellantis have also each secured a tax break for their planned investment to produce EVs in Indonesia, Rosan said, without providing a timeline.
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