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By Alun John
LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Market expectations of substantial U.S. rate cuts this year are making short-dated debt unattractive as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be as aggressive in easing monetary policy, said Deborah Cunningham, a money market fund manager for Federated Hermes, on Tuesday.
The Fed delivers its decision on policy on Wednesday and is all but certain to cut interest rates from their 23-year high.
Investors currently think it more likely to begin with a 50-basis-point cut than with a 25-basis-point one and are pricing around 120 bps of cuts across the three meetings by year end.
Federated Hermes, in contrast, expects a 25-bp cut on Wednesday and two more such cuts by year end, Cunningham said.
"Short term (U.S.) paper at this point looks unattractive," Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets, told reporters.
"The best strategy in the short term is to invest in the longer end of our yield curve - out to 13 months - but it is hard to do that when you're looking at a yield curve that at the short end is expecting way more (cuts) than we are."
Cunningham's view differs from market pricing "because there are quite a few market participants that expect a recession, which is not our expectation."
Money market funds are mutual funds that invest in very liquid short-term debt products issued by governments or highly rated companies.
Companies and investors have traditionally seen them as safe places to park cash, but poured funds into this asset class as central banks raised rates, taking advantage of the higher returns on offer.
Retail investors too have got in on the act and in total, $6.3 trillion is currently invested in U.S. money market funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. aUSFAMTA
The yield on a three-month Treasury bill US3MT=RR has fallen around 56 bps in the last three months. There has been a full percentage point decline in two-year yields US2YT=RR in that time.
Cunningham said there were more opportunities to invest in short-dated government bonds in Britain, where markets are pricing fewer rate cuts than in the U.S., as well as short-dated tranches of asset-backed securities, which had been unattractive when rates were rising.
Other asset managers are watching to see whether money flows out of money market funds as interest rates fall, but Cunningham said low interest rates on bank accounts meant she saw them continuing to attract inflows and that assets under management would peak over $7 trillion.
(Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Shreya Biswas)
(( alun.john@thomsonreuters.com ;))
Keywords: GLOBAL-MARKETS/MONEY MARKET FUNDS
On CNBC's “Mad Money Lightning Round,” Jim Cramer said Federated Hermes Inc is an investment management company that he does not know well.
On Sept. 5, Evercore ISI Group analyst John Dunn maintained Federated Hermes with an Outperform and lowered the price target from $37 to $36.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. is a “company that does two-way radios, it does bar codes, it does lots of government infrastructure, and it just coins money,” he said.
On Sept. 3, Jefferies analyst George Notter maintained Motorola Solutions with a Buy and raised the price target from $460 to $510.
Cramer said Gerdau S.A. is a company that he doesn't really care for. “If you want steel, you do Nucor ,” he added.
Gerdau is considered the largest producer of long steel in the Americas, while Nucor is the largest steel producer in the U.S.
On Aug. 1, Gerdau posted second-quarter sales of R$16.616 billion down from R$18.265 billion in the year-ago period. Its adjusted net income fell to R$945 million from R$2.143 billion.
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. itself did “screw up,” Cramer said, “They didn't know that they had a weak franchise that was missing its numbers from overseas, and that caused people to think that, wait a second, maybe they're not as in control of their destiny as we thought. And that's why the stock's going down, and that is an actual worry for me too.”
On Sept. 12, Baird analyst David Tarantino maintained Domino’s Pizza with an Outperform and lowered the price target from $580 to $535.
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