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Have you been paying attention to shares of Frontdoor (FTDR)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 3.2% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $49.36 in the previous session. Frontdoor has gained 38.5% since the start of the year compared to the 21.3% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 18.3% return for the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 1, 2024, Frontdoor reported EPS of $1.27 versus consensus estimate of $1 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 0.87%.
For the current fiscal year, Frontdoor is expected to post earnings of $2.79 per share on $1.83 billion in revenues. This represents a 21.3% change in EPS on a 3.04% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.91 per share on $1.93 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 4.48% and 4.96%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Frontdoor may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Frontdoor has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 17.5X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 19.7X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 17.4X versus its peer group's average of 15.2X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Frontdoor currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Frontdoor fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Frontdoor shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
How Does FTDR Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of FTDR have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM). SWIM has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of C.
Earnings were strong last quarter. Latham Group, Inc. beat our consensus estimate by 275%, and for the current fiscal year, SWIM is expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share on revenue of $513.1 million.
Shares of Latham Group, Inc. have gained 13.8% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 74.11X and a P/CF of 19.1X.
The Building Products - Miscellaneous industry may rank in the bottom 55% of all the industries we have in our universe, but there still looks like there are some nice tailwinds for FTDR and SWIM, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Construction Partners (ROAD) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 9.1% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $67.21 in the previous session. Construction Partners has gained 54.4% since the start of the year compared to the 20.2% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 16.5% return for the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 9, 2024, Construction Partners reported EPS of $0.59 versus consensus estimate of $0.54 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 2.95%.
For the current fiscal year, Construction Partners is expected to post earnings of $1.43 per share on $1.85 billion in revenues. This represents a 52.13% change in EPS on a 18% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.79 per share on $2.08 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 25.17% and 12.47%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Construction Partners may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Construction Partners has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and F, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 47.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 19.4X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 27.6X versus its peer group's average of 14.9X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.52. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Construction Partners currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Construction Partners passes the test. Thus, it seems as though Construction Partners shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.
How Does ROAD Stack Up to the Competition?
Shares of ROAD have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Frontdoor Inc. (FTDR). FTDR has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of B.
Earnings were strong last quarter. Frontdoor Inc. beat our consensus estimate by 27%, and for the current fiscal year, FTDR is expected to post earnings of $2.79 per share on revenue of $1.83 billion.
Shares of Frontdoor Inc. have gained 3.6% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 17.34X and a P/CF of 17.28X.
The Building Products - Miscellaneous industry may rank in the bottom 60% of all the industries we have in our universe, but there still looks like there are some nice tailwinds for ROAD and FTDR, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.
Zacks Investment Research
The joint venture (“JV”) of Tutor Perini Corporation TPC with its subsidiary Black Construction Corporation, has won a $38.3 million contract from the Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command, Pacific District.
For the P-324 9th Engineering Support Battalion Headquarters Project at Marine Corps Base, GU, the JV’s work scope includes constructing low-rise facilities to support the third Marine Expeditionary Force of the 9th Engineering Support Battalion.
The building construction work will feature reinforced concrete structural frame walls, floor, roof and a concrete shallow foundation system. Furthermore, the administration building will comprise the battalion or squadron headquarters and company or battery headquarters, which will offer private and open offices, meeting rooms and miscellaneous support spaces.
The project work is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and be completed by November 2026. Tutor Perini will consider this contract’s value under its third-quarter 2024 backlog.
Following the contract announcement, shares of TPC gained 2.5% during the trading hours and 1.5% in the after-hours on Thursday.
TPC’s Consistent Contract Wins
Tutor Perini’s efficient project execution, diversified delivery methods and services have aided it in bagging new contracts and awards consistently. This is the company's primary growth driver, which adds to its backlog level, thus determining its long-term growth prospects in this everchanging economy.
At the end of June 30, 2024, the company backlog was $10.42 billion, which was up sequentially from $9.98 billion and from $10.16 billion on Dec. 31, 2023. TPC’s significant new awards and contract adjustments in the second quarter of 2024 included the $1.3 billion Connecticut River replacement bridge project for Amtrak, the $216 million airport terminal connector project at Fort Lauderdale International Airport, $144 million of additional funding for certain mass transit projects in California, and the $136 million I-64 Bridge and Highway Project in the Midwest for Lunda Construction.
Furthermore, the $127 million electrical project in New York at the Hillview Reservoir, the $74 million Child Development Center at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam for Black Construction and $71 million of additional funding for various health care projects in California with Rudolph and Sletten added to the backlog value.
Given this robust growth trend, the TPC stock surged 156.4% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Heavy Construction industry’s 59.6% growth. Tutor Perini believes that its backlog is expected to grow notably during the second half of 2024 and in 2025, given the fair share of various large project opportunities on its way.
TPC’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
Tutor Perini currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Some other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Construction sector include Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX, M/I Homes, Inc. MHO and Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Comfort Systems delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.6%, on average. The stock has surged 79.7% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FIX’s 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates growth of 29.4% and 57.8%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.
M/I Homes has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.8%, on average. Shares of MHO have risen 70.2% in the past year. The consensus estimate for MHO’s 2024 sales and EPS implies an increase of 9.6% and 21.9%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.
Frontdoor delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 279%, on average. The stock has gained 50.6% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTDR’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 3% and 21.3%, respectively, from a year ago.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR, the leading provider of home warranties in the United States, have rallied 36.1% in the past three months. The stock has significantly outperformed the 2% rise registered by the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry.
FTDR also outpaced the Zacks Construction sector's 5.1% growth and the S&P 500 index's 0.8% increase during the same period. The company is benefiting from improved contract claims costs and customer retention. Also, the emphasis on home warranties and on-demand home services bodes well.
The recent strong performance of Frontdoor puts it ahead of peers like Armstrong World Industries, Inc. AWI and Construction Partners, Inc. ROAD, which moved up 6% and 6.6%, respectively, in the past three months. It also outpaced Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. WMS, which saw a 17.8% decline during the same period.
FTDR Trading Above 50 & 200-Day Moving Averages
Technical indicators suggest continued strong performance for Frontdoor. FTDR is currently trading above its 50-day SMA. In fact, the 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day SMA, signaling a bullish trend. This technical strength highlights positive market sentiment and confidence in FTDR's financial stability and prospects.
Factors Driving FTDR’s Stock Surge
Boosting Home Warranty Sales: Although macroeconomic headwinds are impacting home warranty sales, Frontdoor continues to focus on the long-term growth potential of the market. The company has modestly revised its outlook for member count.
The company's American Home Shield (AHS) brand continues to focus on selling home warranties. Frontdoor has implemented several measures to boost home warranty sales. In April, the company launched a new marketing campaign for AHS that generated strong results. FTDR also deployed short-term strategies like a 50% discount promotion in July 2024, which showed positive renewal rates.
The company is advancing to the next phase of the AHS brand relaunch. These initiatives demonstrate FTDR’s commitment to using targeted discounts to attract and retain members.
Expanding On-Demand Business: FTDR is making notable strides in its on-demand business, showing significant growth and enhanced capabilities. It is successfully expanding its ecosystem to cover a wide range of home services, reaching more homeowners and leveraging a network of independent contractors. This approach is increasing the company's share of wallets and effectively addressing repair, replacement and maintenance needs.
The company's HVAC on-demand business is performing exceptionally well. During the second quarter, FTDR's other revenues increased 46% year over year, driven by higher on-demand home services, primarily new HVAC sales. The company is advancing its technology capabilities and developing new revenue streams, as highlighted by its recent partnership with Moen.
2-10 Acquisition Fuels FTDR’s Expansion: In June, FTDR entered into an agreement to acquire 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty, a leading provider of new home structural warranties. The acquisition is expected to deliver near-term benefits, including an expanded customer base, product diversification and significant synergies. Over the long term, it is anticipated to enhance growth in the customer base, revenues and earnings.
Strong Liquidity Profile: Frontdoor continues to ensure financial flexibility, supporting future investments and driving long-term growth. Net cash provided by operations was $187 million in the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from $112 million a year ago. Its net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 0.85x in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 1.5x in the year-ago quarter, highlighting a stronger financial position.
Frontdoor remains committed to enhancing shareholder value through strategic initiatives aimed at boosting returns. On July 26, Frontdoor's Board approved a new 3-year share repurchase plan worth $650 million, marking a 63% increase from the previous authorization.
Potential Risks to FTDR’s Stock Growth
The current environment presents significant cyclical issues, particularly due to consumer stress and reduced spending, which are impacting the home warranty sector and other areas of the economy.
During the second quarter, real estate and direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues fell 14% year over year each. The downtick was mainly due to lower home warranty sales, which were impacted by a challenging real estate market and inflation affecting consumer sentiment. Elevated home prices, high mortgage rates and low inventory are significant challenges for the company.
FTDR's Estimate Movement & Valuation
Analysts are showing confidence in the stock, as indicated by recent upward revisions in earnings estimates. This depicts that there is solid upside potential for the stock. The estimated figure indicates 21.3% year-over-year growth for 2024. FTDR’s growth prospect is further solidified with a VGM Score of A, backed by a Growth Score of A.
Frontdoor is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry peers, as shown below. Despite FTDR's strong stock performance relative to its industry, its current valuation suggests that the market might not have fully acknowledged or priced in the company's growth potential and earnings prospects.
Is it the Right Time to Buy FTDR Stock Now?
Despite facing significant cyclical challenges, such as consumer stress, reduced spending, and a tough real estate market, Frontdoor is demonstrating resilience.
The company’s raised outlook for 2024 is also reflective of the fact. Revenue is now expected to grow 2-3% to a range of $1.81-$1.84 billion. The gross margin outlook was increased to slightly above 51%, compared with the prior projection of 50%. Adjusted EBITDA is now projected to be within $385-$395 million versus an earlier range of $360-$370 million.
Although the company observed soft demand in DTC and real estate channels during second-quarter 2024, it witnessed a positive trend in the renewal channel. The overall retention rate increased by 30 bps to 76.6%. A decline of $17 million in contract claims cost reflects successful cost management and process improvements. These robust fundamentals and strong financial outlook make this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company an attractive addition to investors' portfolios at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Construction Partners, Inc. ROAD have gained 40.9% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the Building Products - Miscellaneous industry’s 10.1% growth, the Zacks Construction sector’s 13.9% increase and the S&P 500 Index’s 15% rise.
ROAD is benefiting from solid demand trends for private and public work across more than 70 local markets in the six southeast states it operates. Furthermore, accretive acquisitions, project pipelines and the ROAD-Map 2027 goals have been driving the company.
Although ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and inflated cost structure are headwinds, the aforementioned positives are more than offsetting the negative impacts and supporting ROAD’s growth.
ROAD stock has outperformed industry players like Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR, Armstrong World Industries, Inc. AWI and Installed Building Products, Inc. IBP in the year-to-date period. In the said time frame, FTDR, AWI and IBP have gained 35.6%, 24% and 12.6%, respectively.
Here’s What Makes ROAD Stock a Solid Pick
Ongoing Demand Strength: Construction Partners operates across six southeastern states in the United States, offering construction services and related products for public and private projects. Due to healthy funding programs at the state, local and federal levels throughout the southeastern states, the company witnesses strong demand for public projects. Public investments include a variety of infrastructure projects ranging from highways and bridges to airports, railroads and military bases.
Also, ROAD continues to see areas of strength in the private market for manufacturing, corporate site development, large economic development projects and residential. This sustained demand continues to drive project backlog growth. As of June 30, 2024, the company’s backlog was $1.86 billion, up from $1.59 billion in the year-ago quarter and from $1.79 billion in the prior quarter.
Accretive Buyouts: Construction Partners follows a profitable buyout strategy, which enhances as well as expands its product offerings and geographical reach. Since the beginning of fiscal 2024, it has acquired eight companies. On Tuesday, ROAD acquired John G. Walton Construction Company, Inc., based in Mobile, AL. The acquisition includes a hot-mix asphalt plant, along with crew and equipment, serving the greater Mobile and southwestern Alabama area. This strategic transaction will strengthen the company’s position in the growing Mobile metro area and enable it to pursue further opportunities in Alabama.
During the fiscal third quarter, the company acquired Hudson Paving in Rockingham, NC, and Robinson Paving Company in Columbus, GA. Thanks to these buyouts, it has added two asphalt plants, a greenfield asphalt plant site, a diverse fleet of equipment and vehicles as well as skilled construction professionals to its business portfolio.
ROAD-Map 2027 Goals: During the latter half of 2023, ROAD disclosed certain targets that it expects to achieve by fiscal 2027. The targets included annual revenue growth in the range of 15-20%, with approximately half of the growth being inorganic and the other half being organic, and EBITDA margin expansion in the range of 13-14%.
Given the ongoing opportunities for organic and inorganic growth, Construction Partners seems well-positioned to achieve these targets. During the nine months ended June 30, 2024, revenues increased year over year by 18.1% to $1.29 billion while the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 170 basis points to 11.2%.
ROAD Crosses 50-Day SMA
Technical indicators imply a continued strong performance for Construction Partners. From the graphical representation given below, it can be observed that ROAD stock crossed the 50-day simple moving average mark on Wednesday, signaling an improving trend. The technical strength underscores positive market sentiment and confidence in its financial health and prospects.
50-Day Moving Average
Estimate Trend Favors ROAD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Construction Partners’ fiscal 2024 earnings has trended upward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates growth of 52.1% from a year ago. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has also moved up over the past 60 days, indicating 25.2% year-over-year growth.
EPS Estimate Trend
The company has long-term earnings per share growth rate of 30.9%, which is higher than its industry’s 11.3%.
ROAD Trades at a Premium
Construction Partners is currently trading at a premium to the industry peers on a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio basis. ROAD’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is 34.66, which is significantly higher than the industry’s 16.27.
Should You Say Yes to ROAD Stock?
From the above-discussed factors, it is clear that Construction Partners is undertaking effective measures and seeking accretive opportunities to meet its Map 2027 goals. The ongoing demand strength for public and private infrastructure and related projects, along with favorable buyout opportunities, bodes well for the company.
ROAD’s trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 13.3%, lower than the industry’s 14.3%. Although its ROE metric is under pressure, ROAD’s performance likely reflects better execution and market share capture than its industry peers, thereby sustaining its growth trajectory in the upcoming period. The company has a VGM Score of A, backed by a Growth Score of A and a Value Score of B.
Furthermore, a higher valuation seems justified, given ROAD’s growth trajectory. The upward EPS revisions indicate further earnings growth and a higher valuation is likely to offer upside potential in the long run.
Based on the overall discussion and the trends of technical indicators, investors can consider adding this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock to their portfolio for now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Investment Research
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